这次崩盘极可能起源于Junk Bond# Stock
x*e
1 楼
有几个junk bond fund不让投资人抽取资金了。等中国几个大国企default美元债券,
就差不多了。
再加上shale oil 借的债.
危机路线图:
junk bond default ->
CDS on high yield bond explode ->
CDS writers on high yield bond go bankrypcy ->
credit crunch ->bank run ->
increasing lay offs ->
increasing morgage and auto loan default ->
CDS on MBS and auto loans explode ->
CDS writers on MBS and auto loans go bankrypcy ->
credit crunch and mass lay off ->
fed step in, helicopter money, QE infiniti ->
massive inflation->
game over
以上是按链式反应逐级放大的过程, junk fund default正在进行中
FED可能会在CDS on MBS and auto loans explode 这一步出手,彻底终结美元的储备
货币地位。
Auto loan 就有1 trillion了, 可怕。
就差不多了。
再加上shale oil 借的债.
危机路线图:
junk bond default ->
CDS on high yield bond explode ->
CDS writers on high yield bond go bankrypcy ->
credit crunch ->bank run ->
increasing lay offs ->
increasing morgage and auto loan default ->
CDS on MBS and auto loans explode ->
CDS writers on MBS and auto loans go bankrypcy ->
credit crunch and mass lay off ->
fed step in, helicopter money, QE infiniti ->
massive inflation->
game over
以上是按链式反应逐级放大的过程, junk fund default正在进行中
FED可能会在CDS on MBS and auto loans explode 这一步出手,彻底终结美元的储备
货币地位。
Auto loan 就有1 trillion了, 可怕。