法国又双叒有暴乱，马克龙这回怎么办？ | 经济学人

2023-07-16 04:07

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Charlie，往者不谏，来者可追

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Europe | Macron’s next headache

欧洲｜马克龙的难题

英文部分选自经济学人202306701欧洲板块

Europe | Macron’s next headache

欧洲｜马克龙的难题

Rioting in France presents a fresh political test for Emmanuel Macron

法国骚乱是马克龙的政治新考验

Anger over the shooting of a teenager by police provides fodder for his opponents

警察枪杀少年引发的民愤被马克龙的反对者大做文章

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, is facing one of the toughest challenges yet of his second term, after rioting across the country continued for a fourth night. Despite deploying tens of thousands of police, the government has struggled to contain the violence. It first broke out after a traffic policeman on June 27th shot dead a teenager in a rented car who failed to obey orders to stop. Such is the tension that Mr Macron was forced to postpone a planned three-day state visit to Germany due to begin on July 2nd, which would have been the first by a French president for 23 years. That shows the political mire the riots have become for Mr Macron.

法国全境爆发的骚乱已持续了四个晚上，这是法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙（Emmanuel Macron）第二个任期内遇到的最艰难的挑战之一。尽管已经动用了数以万计的警力，政府仍无法完全控制暴力蔓延。6月27日，一位少年因没有服从警察命令停车而被击毙在租来的汽车里，从而引发了骚乱。马克龙原定于7月2日开启为期三天的德国访问——这将是23年来法国总统首次访德，但由于局势紧张，访问被迫推迟。此举说明骚乱已成为马克龙面临的政治泥潭。

The minority centrist government that Mr Macron runs is squeezed between a bloc on the far left and another on the nationalist hard right. He had just successfully emerged from a long political battle to enact an unpopular pension reform, which raises the legal minimum pension age from 62 years to 64. France had returned to politics as normal. Now, the rioting has handed both opposition factions a chance to undermine his presidency once again.

马克龙领导的少数派中间政府受到极左政治集团和民族主义强硬派的左右夹击。他刚刚赢得一场漫长的政治斗争，在一片反对中，颁布了养老金改革法案，将法定退休年龄从62岁提高到64岁。法国政坛刚刚才回复平静，这场骚乱又再次给了两个反对集团动摇总统地位的机会。

On the far left, political leaders have blamed the rioting on poverty and government neglect in the high-rise multi-ethnic banlieues, which ring most French cities. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of Unsubmissive France, was slow to condemn the violence. On the hard right, Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally (formerly the National Front), has accused Mr Macron of a lax approach to law and order, and to immigration.

在极左翼政治领导人眼中，法国大多数城市的外围都是高楼林立、多民族混居的区域，这些地方的贫困问题和政府对此的漠视是骚乱的背后原因。“不屈的法兰西（Unsubmissive France）”领导人让·吕克·梅朗雄（Jean-Luc Mélenchon）迟迟不肯谴责暴力事件。而国民联盟（前身为国民阵线）强硬右派领导人玛丽娜·勒庞（Marine Le Pen）指责马克龙对社会法治和移民问题的绥靖态度。

Mr Macron is no stranger to street protests. In 2018 he had to deal with widespread rioting, after the gilets jaunes (yellow jackets) protests hardened into violence. Earlier this year the president faced months of demonstrations and 14 one-day national strikes against his pension reform. Some of the marches turned violent, as rubbish bins and vehicles were torched and troublemakers infiltrated the protest marches. A state visit by Britain’s King Charles III was cancelled at the last minute in March, due to security concerns.

马克龙对街头抗议活动并不陌生，2018年，在“黄背心”抗议活动演变成暴力冲突后，他不得不应对大规模扩散的骚乱。今年早些时候，马克龙就经历了长达数月的示威活动和14次为期一天的全国性罢工，反对他的养老金改革。随着垃圾桶和车辆被烧毁，捣乱分子渗透到抗议游行中（煽风点火），一些游行演变成了暴力示威。出于安全考虑，英国国王查尔斯三世原本计划在3月举行的国事访问在最后一刻取消。

注释：

黄背心运动升级：怨气难消的抗议者与伤痕累累的巴黎

https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/world-46505834

This time the violence is of a different order. The two previous waves of rioting under his presidency were directly linked to government policy. In the first case, an increase in the carbon tax on motor fuel. In the second, an increase in the retirement age. Today’s riots have less to do with Mr Macron, and more with the nature of policing and in particular the lethal use of firearms in traffic policing. In dozens of interviews with The Economist in Nanterre on June 29th, as people headed to join a protest in memory of Nahel, the 17-year-old shot dead, not one person spontaneously mentioned the president.

这次的暴力事件与以往不同。此前发生在他任期之内的两次暴乱与政府政策有直接关联。第一次是与燃油碳税的增加有关。第二次是与提升退休年龄有关。而如今的骚乱与马克龙本人关系不大，更关乎警察执法，尤其是交通执法中致命性武器的使用。6月29日，人们前往巴黎郊区楠泰尔（Nanterre）参加悼念遇害的17岁男孩纳赫勒（Nahel）的抗议活动。当天，《经济学人》进行了数十次采访，其中没有一个人主动提及总统。

The immediate concern, rather, is the loosening in early 2017 of the rules governing the police use of firearms, and what seems to have been a subsequent increase in deaths. In 2022, 13 people were killed during traffic checks, a record. France does not collect ethnic statistics. But linked to this is an underlying anger, in particular in the banlieues, at the way residents feel they are treated by the police. “Young people say they get checked for who they are and not for what they are doing,” Fabien Truong, a sociologist who specialises in the banlieues, told Le Monde newspaper: “These experiences leave a lasting mark.” On June 30th the United Nations human rights office urged France “to seriously address the deep issues of racism and discrimination in law enforcement.”

人们关心的问题其实是2017年初政府放宽了警械使用的规定，而随后因使用警械导致死亡的人数亦有所增加。2022年，有13人在交通检查中死亡，创下记录。法国并没有按种族统计（警察执法导致的死亡）数据，但（死于警察执法人数增加）这一情况背后却集聚了愤怒，尤其在郊区，警察对待居民的态度让居民很是不满。研究郊区问题的社会学家法比安·特龙（Fabien Truong）告诉《世界报》（Le Monde）：“年轻人认为检查是对人不对事。这些经历会有持续的影响。”6月30日，联合国人权办事处敦促法国“严肃对待执法中存在的深层次问题——种族主义和种族歧视。”

As with previous riots, though, much of the current violence is being carried out by agitators or opportunists taking advantage of the disorder to loot and vandalise, often using social media and messaging apps to encourage revolt. Indeed most of the arson attacks in recent days have taken place against public services—town halls, libraries, schools, buses—in the banlieues themselves, prompting dismay among residents. The government has in recent years spent huge sums trying to renovate such neighbourhoods.

与先前的骚乱一样，目前的大部分暴力行为都是煽动者或机会主义者实施的，他们利用混乱伺机抢劫并破坏公物，还通过社交媒体和即时通讯app来扩大事态。事实上，近期大部分纵火袭击都以公共服务设施，如市政厅、图书馆、学校和公交车等为目标在郊区发生，这让居民感到惶恐不安。近年来，政府也已经投入大量资金试图改造这些社区。

The immediate task now is to try to contain the violence. On June 29th Mr Macron cut short his attendance at a European summit in Brussels to return to Paris, where he held a crisis meeting. In 2005, the last time that France was convulsed by such widespread nightly rioting in cities across the country, it took three weeks and the introduction of a state of emergency to restore calm. At the moment, says the presidency, this option is not judged necessary. The government, rather, is trying to deploy what it calls a “graduated” use of law-and-order forces on the streets. It wants social-media platforms, including Snapchat, to be more co-operative about identifying those inciting others to violence.

当务之急是遏制暴乱。6月29日，马克龙提前离开在布鲁塞尔举行的欧盟峰会，返回巴黎召开会议应对危机。上次法国全境城市陷入大规模夜间暴乱还是在2005年，当时的法国政府启动紧急状态机制，花了整整三周才平息骚乱。如今，马克龙认为事态还没有发展到要启动国家紧急机制这一步。法国政府正在街头“递增式”部署执法力量，并希望Snapchat等社交媒体平台给予更多配合，识别那些暴力煽动者。

注释:

关于2005年的暴乱事件，可看此篇报道：

https://export.shobserver.com/baijiahao/html/628449.html

The politics of all this are not in Mr Macron’s favour. A right-wing police union was furious when the president described Nahel’s killing on the day it took place as “inexplicable, inexcusable”. In a formal address on June 30th designed to look authoritative, Ms Le Pen blamed the “drunkenness of solitary power” and called for the introduction of local curfews as well as, if necessary, a state of emergency. And she insisted on a link to “lax” immigration laws, even though Nahel was a French citizen who grew up in France.

眼下的政治局势对马克龙不利。事发当天，马克龙称纳赫尔的死 “令人费解，无法原谅”，这番描述激怒了一个右翼的警察工会。在6月30日的正式发言中（此次讲话也旨在彰显一定的权威性），勒庞批评马克龙“醉心于独揽大权”，并要求颁布地方宵禁措施，并且有必要的话，全国应进入紧急状态。此外，即便纳赫尔是在法国长大的法国公民，勒庞还坚持认这一枪击事件与“宽松的”移民法脱不开干系。

Mr Macron has been careful to condemn the violence, and to support the police, as well as to express his emotion at the shooting. On June 29th the public prosecutor put the policeman who shot Nahel under formal investigation for “voluntary homicide”. Initial shock in France at the police shooting of Nahel, though, is turning to anger at the violence, vandalism and looting, as well as at the inability of the government to bring it under control. This plays to the law-and-order agenda on the political right and hard right. The longer the violence goes on, the greater the chances that the politician who benefits will be Ms Le Pen.

不管是谴责暴力行径还是表达对警方的支持，亦或是展露对枪击事件的情感，马克龙都非常谨慎。6月29日，公诉人以“故意杀人罪”正式对枪杀纳赫尔的警察进行调查。而法国群众也由当初对警察击杀纳赫尔的震惊转为对满大街的暴力、蓄意破坏、掠劫，以及法国政府控制不当的愤怒。事态的发展恰恰符合政治右翼与强硬右翼的法律与秩序议程。暴力活动越是“得不到控制”，勒庞就越有可能成为受益的政客。

注释：

法国政党光谱（不完全）

https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/443693859

翻译组：

Devin，荣枯有数，得失难量

Charlie，往者不谏，来者可追

Humi，在躺平、侧卧和睡梦中寻找诗和远方

校对组：

Constance，痛终有时，爱必将至

Collin，男，崇拜科比的一枚小翻译

Rachel，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译

观点|评论|思考

本周感想

Neil，男，外贸民工，经济学人铁粉

法国具有光荣的革命传统，有事没事上街闹一闹，这似乎已经是习以为常的事。但和以往的革命不同，这次的暴动更多的是关于移民问题和警察的暴力执法。法国经历过几次集中移民，我们可以从中了解下问题发生的原因。

第一次移民在一战之前，法国统治了北非国家。当时的需求是为了战争服务，北非殖民作为兵力和劳动力。他们被强制法国化，完全按照法国人的习俗生活。完成兵役可以回国，所以第一代移民有很强的落叶归根意识。第二代移民是二战结束，生产力回复，本地劳动力不够，需要大量劳动力，也是完全法国化。但是最终同化失败。第三代移民是1975年出生在法国本土的穆斯林，法国出现了经济危机，本地人就业率下降，得和北非移民竞争。

这些移民没有先辈强烈的落叶归根思想，但是又很难融入法国主流社会，属于纠结的一代。身份认同的迷失，这种情绪传递到现在的这批移民。外加经济不景气，加剧了和本地人的冲突。所以法国现在移民问题较根本的原因是引进了移民，但是融合失败。移民这事不能太理想化，不是简单的把人带进来，会涉及文化习俗上的冲突。没有解决好，再引进只会产生深层次的社会问题。

愿景