2000年我有一百万退休能走多远(1)?: SP500
2000年我有1M现金决定退休!
投股市!
全买了SP500。 每年取出4% (每月拿$3333)到2023年还有0.94M(具体数据看下表) - 听起来符合4%永远拿不完的法则。
问题是2000 到2023 通膨是大约70%。 所以剩余的0.94M 实际购买力到2023只相当2000年的0.55M。 当年的$3333购买力 到2023 年需要$5666. 所以我的生活水平是逐年下降的。
结论:1M退休投SPY - 钱越来越紧。不知当初我要投了房市会如何?买了个股呢?
下面是SPY500 的 excel sheet
Year | % return | Year end fund | Take 4% from last year | Fund from last year |
1999 | 20.89% | 1 | ||
2000 | -9.03% | 0.873312 | 0.96 | 1 |
2001 | -11.85% | 0.734564528 | 0.833312 | 0.873312 |
2002 | -21.97% | 0.541968701 | 0.694564528 | 0.734564528 |
2003 | 28.36% | 0.644327025 | 0.501968701 | 0.541968701 |
2004 | 10.74% | 0.669231747 | 0.604327025 | 0.644327025 |
2005 | 4.83% | 0.659623641 | 0.629231747 | 0.669231747 |
2006 | 15.61% | 0.716346891 | 0.619623641 | 0.659623641 |
2007 | 5.48% | 0.713410701 | 0.676346891 | 0.716346891 |
2008 | -36.55% | 0.42727909 | 0.673410701 | 0.713410701 |
2009 | 25.94% | 0.487739285 | 0.38727909 | 0.42727909 |
2010 | 14.82% | 0.514094248 | 0.447739285 | 0.487739285 |
2011 | 2.10% | 0.484050227 | 0.474094248 | 0.514094248 |
2012 | 15.89% | 0.514609808 | 0.444050227 | 0.484050227 |
2013 | 32.15% | 0.627196861 | 0.474609808 | 0.514609808 |
2014 | 13.52% | 0.666585877 | 0.587196861 | 0.627196861 |
2015 | 1.38% | 0.635232762 | 0.626585877 | 0.666585877 |
2016 | 11.77% | 0.665291658 | 0.595232762 | 0.635232762 |
2017 | 21.61% | 0.760417185 | 0.625291658 | 0.665291658 |
2018 | -4.23% | 0.689943538 | 0.720417185 | 0.760417185 |
2019 | 31.21% | 0.852790916 | 0.649943538 | 0.689943538 |
2020 | 18.02% | 0.959255839 | 0.812790916 | 0.852790916 |
2021 | 28.47% | 1.180967977 | 0.919255839 | 0.959255839 |
2022 | -18.01% | 0.935479644 | 1.140967977 | 1.180967977 |
2023 | 0.895479644 | 0.895479644 | 0.935479644 |