看不懂的股市 (w English)

这2018年看似好年啊，开门红啊，才半个月，股市就创新高，截至一月十七日，道琼已经突破26000点，而且是在短短的八天期间上涨1000点，突破历史上23天涨1000点的速度。

 

据报道，2017年道琼指数涨幅25%, 纳斯达克上涨28%, S &P 500涨了19% 。 自2017年来，几乎每天听到的都是好消息啊，什么失业率低，通胀指数低，就业率高，消费者的信心足 。加上年底税改的通过，说是$1.4万亿的现金要流回美国，让你感觉美国好像马上又要遍地是金子，流回来的钱让大地富得冒油似的，好一派莺歌燕舞的大好时代。 

 

而我一个胆小保守的人，一个一遭被蛇咬，十年怕井绳的人，此时却想起2000年前后，自己刚到美国没几年时的情景。那时家里就一人工作，看着红火的股市动心了，将省吃俭用的一点钱投到世纪末疯狂的科技股中，那时Qualcomm一天涨过$100的疯狂，等到2001年泡沫破裂，又目睹科技股从几百块跌到几分的触目惊心，钱当然是没有赚到，不过从指尖滑过，眼睁睁地看着它如飞灰烟灭，那种感觉一辈子都忘不了。 

 

又想起2008年的金融风暴。那几年我在一家大型的次贷公司做。一日，我收到别的部门中国同事的邮件，说刚刚听说公司可能贷不到款，让我赶紧收拾私人物品，说不定明天就不让来公司了。公司第二天倒是没有关门，但没多久的一天中午，整个部门的人集中在二楼听大头宣布公司破产并购的消息。记得二楼的大厅里有台大电视，新闻不停地在播股市连日创新低，那个一落千丈的箭头让人瞠目结舌, 心慌不已。今日查了Wikipedia， 2008年十月6日至10日，一星期里道琼跌18%, 1874点，S&P 500一星期里跌20%，到2009三月六日, 道琼跌了54%,  只剩6469点。我那家上班的公司，那时的行业老大，曾经那么风光，面对风暴，手足无措，如一叶小舟被飓风卷起，抛至高空再甩入海底，沉没于汪洋中再也没有翻身。那个曾经拥有直升飞机的创始人两年后也得癌症去世了。这些发生在我身边的事，今日想起还历历在目。

 

还有2015年，正逢中国的股市如火如荼，我从爬山队友那儿听到这样一句话，“下一轮中国的新贵应该是从股市上冒出来”。我信以为真，忘了曾经的伤痛，将自己在国内仅有的一些钱买做股票，梦想着赶上那趟国内发财致富的快车，成为小新贵，结果股票至今还套在那里。

 

但愿历史不再重演。

 

我不知道现在是真的是歌舞升平，江山一片红，还是暴风雨来临前的繁荣，那种山雨欲来风满楼的节奏，那种撒网让小鱼们都跳进来然后咔嚓一声收口的忽悠，还是Trump打造的盛世真的来临了？    

 

其实这世界看不懂的岂止是股市，难道房市看得懂吗？写下这篇，不知道自己是不是在杞人忧天，权当是抛砖引玉，警醒自己。但愿我们今日不是坐在云端上，有一天忽地又被抛到地面了。

 

以上是昨天晚上和今天中午写的。刚刚下班前看到今日的华尔街日报上有一篇文章关于股市(摘录在下面)。大意就是说，人们的贪婪欲望在上升，很多人生怕错过这趟列车，也纷纷跳进股市。原先预计的股市的好光景会持续到2018年的第二季度，现在一月份最新的预测是好光景会持续到2019年了。我们且拭目以待。看来这世道就是要撑死胆大的，饿死胆小的，呵呵。

 

With Dow raced 25% higher, S&P 500 zoomed 19% and Nasdaq jumped an impressive 28%, the stock market had its best year in 2017. “The index breezed through milestones”, and its momentum was carried over into 2018, when Dow soared to new high of 26000 this Wednesday. It was said that it took only eight days for Dow to rise 1000 points, an unprecedented pace compared with the shortest 23 days in the history.

Let's look at more good statistics below:

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“The S&P 500 stock index gained more than 200% in the seven years from 2009 to the month before the 2016 election. By now the total increase is more than 300%”. (WSJ 01/17/2018)

“The price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is now 26.8, higher than at any time in the 100 years before 1998 and 70% above its historical average.” (WSJ 01/17/2018)

It had taken the Dow 14 years to climb from 10,000 to 15,000, but just three and a half years to reach 20,000 in 2017.

At nearly nine years old, the bull market is now the second-oldest and second-strongest in history.

Trump has repeatedly bragged about roaring stock prices. "70 Record Closes for the Dow so far this year!" Trump tweeted on December 18， 2017. He added, "Wow!"

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I understand that the biggest catalyst is the sweeping corporate tax cut signed into the law at the end of 2017, which will expect to bring back the mountain of offshore cash of about $1.4 trillion to the U.S.

While “most market strategists predicted more gains in 2018, especially as the impact of the tax overhaul are felt”, Martin Feldstein, a professor at Harvard shouted out in January 17, 2018 edition of Wall Street Journal that “Stocks Are Headed for a Fall”.

 I know I am a conservative person. Since the stock market crashed in 2001, I have refrained myself from investing more in the market ever since, except the roll-over 401K from the previous companies.  I know I missed the ride, but at least that gave me a peace of mind.  I don't know what strategy or advice we shall follow in 2018. Timing the market is not something we are good at. So the best strategy maybe is to stay put what we have in the market, and wait and see?

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Below is an article excerpt from 1/18/2018 WSJ

‘Melt-up’ powers Dow past 26000

Mood shifts to greed from fear, as investors don’t want to miss out on continuing rally.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 26000 for the first time on Wednesday, sprinting to a 1000-point milestone just eight trading days after toppling the previous one, its fastest run ever.

The most recent gains have been propelled in part by a sudden hunger for stocks among certain money managers and individual investors who have long been wary of the nearly nine-year bull market.

Some market observers have dubbed this phenomenon “Fear of Missing Out,” as stock-market records fall on a almost weekly basis. Others refer to a “melt-up” market, where the prevailing mood is shifting to greed from fear and investors stampeded in without worrying much about valuation and fundamentals.

The majority of investors who participated in a January poll said they expect the stock market to peak in 2019 or beyond. A month ago, the majority expected a top in the second quarter of 2018.

Some say the quick rise is a little too reminiscent of the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite’s run in late 199 and early 2000.