中国因素是引发美国近期股市大跌的原因吗？

So far 2016 has been a terrible year for the stock market. In fact, it's the worst start ever for the S&P 500. Market participants are reducing their exposure to risky assets. Only the assets viewed as the most defensive—such as Treasuries and utility stocks—have managed to hold their ground amidst the selloff.

Yet we think the selling is driven by fear rather than a fundamental breakdown in the economy. Now, if China were to experience a “hard landing” as many pundits and news headlines suggest, then investors would likely be in for a lot of pain, but again, we think the China crash narrative is more perception than reality.

Consider China's latest trading numbers, reported Wednesday.

Analysts expected a major decline in total trade, but the actual numbers were much better than expected. Exports fell 1.4 percent (in dollar terms) in December compared to a year ago, but it was far less than the 8 percent drop forecasted. Imports dropped 7.6 percent, but it, too, was better than the 11.5 percent fall expected. Keep in mind that these figures reflect the value of the imports and exports that go through customs. Considering the price of goods, especially commodities, that China buys declined compared to a year ago, it's fair to say that in volume, China bought more than last year.

Contrary to the popular narrative that China is to blame for the oil rout, the Middle Kingdom’s imports of crude oil (in volume) actually rose 8.8 percent in 2016. The low oil prices have allowed the country to buy hand over fist and add to their stockpiles.  

You wouldn’t know it judging by the financial market turmoil in China and the persistently negative press coverage in the West, but the numbers don’t suggest an economy falling apart. Remember, the Chinese stock market is an enormous casino that has little correlation to the economy. Neither an incredible rally, as the one that lasted until mid-2015, nor a stunning selloff reflects much about the Chinese economy.  

While investors should rightfully be concerned about the very poor recent market action, the conditions for a market collapse, in our opinion, isn’t present at this time. We will certainly continue to monitor China very closely.

(By Stephen Leeb)