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Charlie放出的19财年October VB的消息 (转载)
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Charlie放出的19财年October VB的消息 (转载)# EB23 - 劳工卡
r*z
1
【 以下文字转载自 Immigration 讨论区 】
发信人: CSDN (隔壁赵大爷), 信区: Immigration
标 题: Charlie放出的19财年October VB的消息
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Aug 15 12:41:01 2018, 美东)
http://canteyhanger.com/news/immigration-news/
Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim Regarding the September Visa Bulletin
Family-Based Preference Categories
September brings a one-month retrogression in the final action dates for FB-
1 Worldwide, China and India, from May 8, 2011 back to April 8, 2011.
FB-3 Worldwide, China and India also retrogress approximately 6 weeks, from
June 15, 2006 to May 1, 2006. In October 2018, when the new fiscal year
commences, these categories will recover and return to the previously held
August final action dates.
All Philippines family-based preference categories will advance in September
except FB-2A Philippines.
FB-1 Mexico, FB-2B Mexico and FB-3 Mexico all advance modestly in September.
In the first few months of FY 2019, it is predicted that the Worldwide
family-based preference categories will advance as follows: FB-1: up to
three weeks, following an October recovery; FB-2A: up to three to five weeks
; FB-2B: up to six weeks; FB-3: up to three to five weeks, following an
October recovery; FB-4: up to five weeks. Members should keep in mind that
whenever the Visa Bulletin indicates there will be movement “up to” a
certain amount of time, there could be no movement or movement up to the
maximum of the referenced period.
Employment-Based Preference Categories
EB-1. Despite a one-month advancement in September and previously expressed
hopes that EB-1 Worldwide would return to current on October 1, 2018 (as it
has in past years), heavy demand will preclude the category from returning
to current in October. Charlie further believes that EB-1 China and EB-1
India will continue to have final action dates in October which are earlier
than those established for Worldwide. It is unlikely that any of the EB-1
categories will have much forward movement before December or possibly into
Q2 of FY 2019.
EB-2 Worldwide. This category will return to current in October and will
remain so for the foreseeable future.
EB-2 China and EB-3 China Flip Again, but is it Too Soon to Downgrade? In
September, EB-2 China will retrogress from March 1, 2015 to the Worldwide
date of January 1, 2013, resulting in EB-3 China having a more favorable
date than EB-2 China. Despite this dramatic retrogression, Charlie predicts
that EB-2 China will fully recover to at least the August Visa Bulletin date
of March 1, 2015 in October, once again causing EB-2 China’s final action
date to be later than that of EB-3 China. EB-2 China will move very slowly
through the first quarter of the fiscal year, as Charlie assesses demand
from earlier movements.
EB-3 China advances four months in September to November 1, 2014 and is
expected to advance from this date by up to three weeks at a time, starting
in October. While EB-2 China is likely to stay ahead of EB-3 China for the
first quarter of the fiscal year, members should continue to watch these
categories closely as their dates are only within a few months of one
another.
EB-2 and EB-3 India. After its long-awaited movement into 2009, EB-2 India
retrogresses more than two years to January 1, 2007 in September. This
abrupt retrogression should be short-lived as Charlie expects EB-2 India to
recover to a 2009 date in October and to advance at a pace of up to two
weeks at a time. In September, EB-3 and Other Workers India retrogresses six
years to January 1, 2003 but will recover in October and then move slowly
pending receipt of demand from recent advances. The dramatic retrogression
of these categories was required to stop further number use in light of the
recent increase in demand by all other countries, resulting in a lack of “
otherwise unused” numbers available for India EB-2/EB-3.
EB-3 and Other Workers. A final action date of November 1, 2016 is briefly
imposed for EB-3 Worldwide, Mexico and Vietnam (as well as El Salvador,
Guatemala, and Honduras), and Other Workers Worldwide, Mexico, and Vietnam,
but all of these categories will return to current in October.
EB-3 China. This category advances four months to November 1, 2014, and
Other Workers China holds at May 1, 2007. These categories are expected to
move at a pace of up to three weeks.
EB-3 Philippines. In September, this category and Other Workers Philippines
retrogresses seven months to November 1, 2016 but is expected to recover
some in October.
EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, EB-4 Mexico and EB-4 India all
advance one week to February 15, 2016. Members should expect variances in
these categories starting in October.
Given the complexity of processing Special Immigrant Juvenile cases, it is
very difficult for Charlie to predict when pending cases will mature into
demand for visa numbers. Members should expect EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala
and Honduras to at least hold at February 15, 2016 for October.
EB-4 Mexico will fully recover in October to its June Visa Bulletin date of
October 22, 2016, and EB-4 India will return to current in October.
EB-5 Non-Regional Center and Regional Center for both China and Vietnam will
advance one week to August 8, 2014 in September. Charlie expects that for
both countries, these categories will continue to operate under a final
action date as we enter FY19. Their dates are likely to be different,
however, with Vietnam’s date being later than that of China for the first
five to six months of the fiscal year, until EB-5 Vietnam hits it’s per
country limit. At that time, its final action date will track that of China.
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j*i
2
看了这么多charlie的预测,这次看上去最合理。
大家感觉如何?

Bulletin
FB-
from

【在 r*****z 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Immigration 讨论区 】
: 发信人: CSDN (隔壁赵大爷), 信区: Immigration
: 标 题: Charlie放出的19财年October VB的消息
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Aug 15 12:41:01 2018, 美东)
: http://canteyhanger.com/news/immigration-news/
: Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim Regarding the September Visa Bulletin
: Family-Based Preference Categories
: September brings a one-month retrogression in the final action dates for FB-
: 1 Worldwide, China and India, from May 8, 2011 back to April 8, 2011.
: FB-3 Worldwide, China and India also retrogress approximately 6 weeks, from

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m*p
3
EB2十月直接回到15/3,还是at least
这也太乐观了点吧...
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S*e
4
谢谢信息!对于面试结束因为retrogression导致还没有拿到卡的,10月是自动拿卡吗
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a*a
5
If ur PD becomes c again, then follow closely and push your senator to stay
on top of USCIS then. That is about all the things you can do...

【在 S*********e 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢信息!对于面试结束因为retrogression导致还没有拿到卡的,10月是自动拿卡吗
: ?

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a*a
6
Agree. He never got it right at the beginning of the next fiscal year, NEVER.
I still believe that EB3 will quickly gain momentum and accelerate to be
beyond March 2015 in Q1-Q2 of next fiscal year.

【在 m***p 的大作中提到】
: EB2十月直接回到15/3,还是at least
: 这也太乐观了点吧...

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m*p
7
握手握手,我也感觉EB3应该在18年底到19年初回到15/3,至于EB2想超过EB3,大概得
等到新财年EB3用完以后吧...

NEVER.

【在 a*****a 的大作中提到】
: Agree. He never got it right at the beginning of the next fiscal year, NEVER.
: I still believe that EB3 will quickly gain momentum and accelerate to be
: beyond March 2015 in Q1-Q2 of next fiscal year.

avatar
S*e
8
谢谢信息!对于面试结束因为retrogression导致还没有拿到卡的,10月是自动拿卡吗
avatar
j*2
9
其实我有点没搞懂,排期不是这个奥本自己定的吗,九月份也没有什么绿卡可发,他为
什么要“预测”十月排期呢。
avatar
a*a
10
Other immigration groups/lawyer associations/companies want to know more so
they touch base with Charlie on regular basis and then release news like
this...

【在 j**********2 的大作中提到】
: 其实我有点没搞懂,排期不是这个奥本自己定的吗,九月份也没有什么绿卡可发,他为
: 什么要“预测”十月排期呢。

avatar
y*j
11
agree too
overly optimistic on EB2
expect him to eat his own words soon ...

NEVER.

【在 a*****a 的大作中提到】
: Agree. He never got it right at the beginning of the next fiscal year, NEVER.
: I still believe that EB3 will quickly gain momentum and accelerate to be
: beyond March 2015 in Q1-Q2 of next fiscal year.

avatar
o*h
12
我英文不好, 谁能我理解一下.
为什么eb1
"It is unlikely that any of the EB-1
categories will have much forward movement before December or possibly into
Q2 of FY 2019."
12月和q2/19是什么特别的日子么?
avatar
a*a
13
Rest assured that it will happen.
Buckle up for a bumpy ride, is what it is.

【在 y*j 的大作中提到】
: agree too
: overly optimistic on EB2
: expect him to eat his own words soon ...
:
: NEVER.

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a*a
14
Nothing special. It is just his prediction at this moment that in the first
3-6 months of 2019 fiscal year (FY) he does not foresee much advancement in
EB-1 due to the current number of applicants that he knows of...
But those numbers could change and he may not have much visibility all the
time, so he just wants to say it conservatively.
Remember, FY 2019 starts at Oct. 2018...
Oct-Dec 2018 is the Q1 of FY 2019.

into

【在 o*******h 的大作中提到】
: 我英文不好, 谁能我理解一下.
: 为什么eb1
: "It is unlikely that any of the EB-1
: categories will have much forward movement before December or possibly into
: Q2 of FY 2019."
: 12月和q2/19是什么特别的日子么?

avatar
c*j
15
這個還是假設印度人推的那個hr392 (被放到DHS appropriation bill)沒通過吧? 那要
在九月通過 大家的排期都要大亂了
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j*i
16
奥本这次没有食言,自己完成了自我救赎呀

【在 j*******i 的大作中提到】
: 看了这么多charlie的预测,这次看上去最合理。
: 大家感觉如何?
:
: Bulletin
: FB-
: from

avatar
a*a
17
LOL
I was amused a lot by this OCT VISA BULLETIN.

【在 j*******i 的大作中提到】
: 奥本这次没有食言,自己完成了自我救赎呀
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