批判“实际商业周期”－－从“集群谬误”谈起 - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

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批判“实际商业周期”－－从“集群谬误”谈起

批判“实际商业周期”－－从“集群谬误”谈起# Economics - 经济

t*e2004-10-28 07:10

1 楼

大家来批判一下我的批判吧。。。
批判“实际商业周期”－－从“集群谬误”谈起
科学家一个最基本的要求就是避免逻辑谬误，这是一定程度上为什么数学对科学包括经济
学那么重要的原因：如果所有的经济学推理都能用数学语言表达，那么经济学家就能避免
逻辑谬误。当然这是不可能的，很多关键的经济学推理还是依靠普通语言。而普通语言到
处都有陷阱；不是吗？虽然“白马非马”摆明了没道理，但诡辩家仍能用似是而非的逻辑
谬误说得大部分人服服帖帖。
一个经济学家常犯的逻辑谬误叫作“集群谬误”（Fallacy of Composition），也经常被
翻译成“合成谬误”，指把在个体身上成立的结论搬到群体身上，比如说看到一个股民能
发财，就说所有股民都能一起发财[1]。这看似愚蠢至极，不易上当，但换个形式换个故
事，很多最聪明的脑袋都会中套，其中甚至包括今年获得诺贝尔奖的基兰（Kydland）和
普雷斯科特（Prescott）。
这两君子是“实际商业周期”（Real Business Cycle）理论的鼻祖，他们毫不犹豫地从
另一位诺贝尔奖获得者卢卡斯（Lucas）那儿继承了“代表经济人”（Representative

t*e2004-10-28 07:10

2 楼

I'm absolutely serious. I know it will make some people unhappy, but it is
what i think after reading both sides of arguments. Of course my argument is
not new. In the book I mentioned in the note and elsewhere there are other
arguments against RBC, too. But this one, the fallacy of compostion, is the
fundamental one to me. In retrospect, i feel it is silly for so many otherwise
brilliant economists to jump into it in the 80s.
The reason why RBC is successful, I think, consists of three. First,

c*i2004-10-28 07:10

3 楼

I would really suggest you to review some of the basic concepts like
"equilibrium" before you start to read and further comment on freshwater
school macroeconomics. I am not a big fun of RBC, but it is just there are too
many misunderstanding of basics in your post that I can not help from jumping
out and picking on some of those points.
First, Representative agent model does abstract from real world
heterogeneities in preference, information and all kinds of idiosyncratic
shocks. But AS LONG AS

t*e2004-10-28 07:10

4 楼

Thank you for your reply. I was actually a little disappointed when I
waited three days in vain for any response.
It is a blind statement that Keynesian macroeconomics "failed empirical test
even qualitatively". It was said that Keynesians stumbled upon the
"stagflation" in US after the oil shock. Keynesians did experience trouble in
explaining stagflation at first, for they were all too used to considering
demand-side shocks only. But after corrections are made on the supply side,
Keynesian ec

【在 c****i 的大作中提到】

: I would really suggest you to review some of the basic concepts like
: "equilibrium" before you start to read and further comment on freshwater
: school macroeconomics. I am not a big fun of RBC, but it is just there are too
: many misunderstanding of basics in your post that I can not help from jumping
: out and picking on some of those points.
: First, Representative agent model does abstract from real world
: heterogeneities in preference, information and all kinds of idiosyncratic
: shocks. But AS LONG AS