Discussion: Buy TIPS? - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

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Discussion: Buy TIPS?

Discussion: Buy TIPS?# Investment - 投资

u*d2009-01-26 08:01

1 楼

A lot of people out there, regardless being optimistic or pessimistic about
the economy, are predicting a hyper-inflation down the road, and any paper
currency on this planet will not worth holding.
For the purpose of preserving purchasing power (I don't believe one should
set up a goal of appreciating wealth during a giant bear market for almost
every asset class), I am favor of buying TIPS than gold (or silver), because
it is easier to manage and its value is relatively foreseeable.
It this th

s*n2009-01-26 08:01

2 楼

I am considering it as part of my portfolio too.

about
because
acculumating

【在 u****d 的大作中提到】

: A lot of people out there, regardless being optimistic or pessimistic about
: the economy, are predicting a hyper-inflation down the road, and any paper
: currency on this planet will not worth holding.
: For the purpose of preserving purchasing power (I don't believe one should
: set up a goal of appreciating wealth during a giant bear market for almost
: every asset class), I am favor of buying TIPS than gold (or silver), because
: it is easier to manage and its value is relatively foreseeable.
: It this th

u*d2009-01-26 08:01

3 楼

what would be the sign(s) for you to triger the buying? I am asking because
at present, you will get less return by holding TIPS than by holding CDs (or
even just savings account). When to switch?

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】

: I am considering it as part of my portfolio too.
:
: about
: because
: acculumating

f*r2009-01-26 08:01

4 楼

bill gross 不是在喊大家一起去买么

b*e2009-01-26 08:01

5 楼

Well, to my understanding, there is no trigger point to buy in TIPS. It's
not too early to buy it now. I mean if you think there will be a substantial
inflation in near future, whether it's 2 months later or 5 years later, it'
s not bad to chip in now. Like catching a flight, it's ok if you are 5 hours
early, but it's not ok if you are 1 minute late.
In the long run, gold and silver have very limited anti-inflation characters
. Take a look at the price of them 30 years ago, they changed very lit

【在 u****d 的大作中提到】

P*a2009-01-26 08:01

6 楼

TIPS yields are not bad now, though even better the 4th quarter of 08...
there're some good readings on TIPS:
http://thefinancebuff.com/2008/10/tips-during-deflation.html
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-tips.html?mod=topnav_2_3010

c*g2009-01-26 08:01

7 楼

这个和I－bonds有啥区别？

u*d2009-01-26 08:01

8 楼

very nice information, though I don't quite understand it yet. Here is the
question, among below TIPS, which is the best to buy and why?
Maturity Coupon Bid Asked Chg Yield* Accrued principal
2018 Jan 15 1.625 96.09 96.10 + 8 2.078 1017
2018 Jul 15 1.375 94.29 94.30 + 9 1.964 988
2019 Jan 15 2.125 101.31 102.00 + 10 1.904 991
Yes, I expect the "Recession" to be at least that long. The reason I said CDs have better yield is for TIPS, your actual yield is b

【在 P**a 的大作中提到】

: TIPS yields are not bad now, though even better the 4th quarter of 08...
: there're some good readings on TIPS:
: http://thefinancebuff.com/2008/10/tips-during-deflation.html
: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-tips.html?mod=topnav_2_3010

u*d2009-01-26 08:01

9 楼

Although lots of people firmly claim the hyper inflation is coming, I am
actually a bit skeptical about it in the near future, given the fact
everything is deflating in price, and all the credit generated demand are
fading fast.
The lesson from last year is nobody is really insightful (or they don't want
to tell the truth?), including Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff, etc. That is why I
want to understand the trigger point, because I don't think I am capable of
anticipating the market.

substantial
it'

【在 b****e 的大作中提到】

: Well, to my understanding, there is no trigger point to buy in TIPS. It's
: not too early to buy it now. I mean if you think there will be a substantial
: inflation in near future, whether it's 2 months later or 5 years later, it'
: s not bad to chip in now. Like catching a flight, it's ok if you are 5 hours
: early, but it's not ok if you are 1 minute late.
: In the long run, gold and silver have very limited anti-inflation characters
: . Take a look at the price of them 30 years ago, they changed very lit

f*t2009-01-26 08:01

10 楼

how to buy in 401k account? thanks.

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】

: I am considering it as part of my portfolio too.
:
: about
: because
: acculumating

S*n2009-01-26 08:01

11 楼

David Rosenberg @ ML has been spot on so far, housing, consumption,
deflation, gov bonds....
He just disclosed his latest analysis: we are in depression.
Not saying he will be right all the time.

want
I
of

【在 u****d 的大作中提到】

: Although lots of people firmly claim the hyper inflation is coming, I am
: actually a bit skeptical about it in the near future, given the fact
: everything is deflating in price, and all the credit generated demand are
: fading fast.
: The lesson from last year is nobody is really insightful (or they don't want
: to tell the truth?), including Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff, etc. That is why I
: want to understand the trigger point, because I don't think I am capable of
: anticipating the market.
:
: substantial

P*a2009-01-26 08:01

12 楼

I recently read about TIPS and here is some of my take to share:
The yield spread among the norminal rate Treasury and TIPS (breakeven rate)is indication of future expected inflation/deflation.The breakeven rate was in negative territory
last Nov-Dec since the market anticipates a future deflation and investors
rushed to buy safest treasuries, and it was a good entry point (low price =>
high yield). But as more and more investors are turning to risker options,
they move out of Treasury to TIPS,w

s*n2009-01-26 08:01

13 楼

you remind me an important point:
TIPS has some tax disadvantage. As a result, it's more suitable for
tax-defer or tax-free account. Google for details.
The fund choices in 401k accounts are usually very limited. And the
set of funds you can put money in is set by your company. So you
may or may not have that choice.

【在 f****t 的大作中提到】

: how to buy in 401k account? thanks.

P*a2009-01-26 08:01

14 楼

I hold TIPS in a Roth IRA account. Probably you can't find TIPS as an
investment option in 401ks.

f*t2009-01-26 08:01

15 楼

can you please name a few tips mutual funds? thanks!
And generally how do you buy tips? etfs? thanks

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】

: you remind me an important point:
: TIPS has some tax disadvantage. As a result, it's more suitable for
: tax-defer or tax-free account. Google for details.
: The fund choices in 401k accounts are usually very limited. And the
: set of funds you can put money in is set by your company. So you
: may or may not have that choice.