B*a
2 楼
因为大家觉得七年以后利率只高不低
【在 X******w 的大作中提到】
: 看7年ARM比30年fixed低一个多点，为什么大家不先用ARM，等靠近第七年的时候看利率
: 低就换成30年fixed？
: 请明白人给讲讲，谢谢
【在 X******w 的大作中提到】
: 看7年ARM比30年fixed低一个多点，为什么大家不先用ARM，等靠近第七年的时候看利率
: 低就换成30年fixed？
: 请明白人给讲讲，谢谢
X*w
3 楼
谢谢，那如果你七年之内肯定要搬家呢？十分感谢
【在 B*****a 的大作中提到】
: 因为大家觉得七年以后利率只高不低
【在 B*****a 的大作中提到】
: 因为大家觉得七年以后利率只高不低
X*w
4 楼
或者说明年利率低了很多，可以很简单的换到fixed？
谢谢
【在 B*****a 的大作中提到】
: 因为大家觉得七年以后利率只高不低
谢谢
【在 B*****a 的大作中提到】
: 因为大家觉得七年以后利率只高不低
b*7
5 楼
你考虑得不错，只不过大家的前提假设不一样而已。如果7年内有很大可能降低率，或
者搬家，或者提前还掉大部分本金，当然7年ARM合算。
【在 X******w 的大作中提到】
: 或者说明年利率低了很多，可以很简单的换到fixed？
: 谢谢
p*y
6 楼
7年之后是否能拿到现在能拿到的fixed rate呢？有风险呀。
而且ARM还本有限，7年还不了多少本金的，换成30年的话，不就是为了多付利息钱么？
一般选ARM，要么就是能提前还完本金，要么就是7年之内一定会买房搬走的。
而且ARM还本有限，7年还不了多少本金的，换成30年的话，不就是为了多付利息钱么？
一般选ARM，要么就是能提前还完本金，要么就是7年之内一定会买房搬走的。
m*m
7 楼
你基本可以改成10年内搬家也不亏，因为：
1. 你可能1-2年后又refi了一个ARM，等于延长了
2. 即使你7年后利率变高了，那时候本金低，利息不会和今天就让你付那样高的利率一
样，而且你可以和前7年赚的便宜相抵消，10年内ARM不吃亏是很有可能的，或者说是太
有可能了。
而且中国人一般收入还可以，你以后选择一次付清也不是什么问题，风险有限。
【在 X******w 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢，那如果你七年之内肯定要搬家呢？十分感谢
1. 你可能1-2年后又refi了一个ARM，等于延长了
2. 即使你7年后利率变高了，那时候本金低，利息不会和今天就让你付那样高的利率一
样，而且你可以和前7年赚的便宜相抵消，10年内ARM不吃亏是很有可能的，或者说是太
有可能了。
而且中国人一般收入还可以，你以后选择一次付清也不是什么问题，风险有限。
【在 X******w 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢，那如果你七年之内肯定要搬家呢？十分感谢
x*a
8 楼
My 2 cents:
Example:
Now 30-yr fixed 4.5%, 7 arm 3.5%
After 7 years, rate increases: 30yr-fixed become 6%, 7 arm will float to 8%.
So you want to refinance to 6%.
However, house price decreased, previously 500K because 300k, you are
underwater.
Results: pay extra money to get it refinance to 6% rate. Or keep the 8% rate.
That is what happened in 2010, why so many ppl have to foreclose or short-
sale.
【在 X******w 的大作中提到】
: 看7年ARM比30年fixed低一个多点，为什么大家不先用ARM，等靠近第七年的时候看利率
: 低就换成30年fixed？
: 请明白人给讲讲，谢谢
Example:
Now 30-yr fixed 4.5%, 7 arm 3.5%
After 7 years, rate increases: 30yr-fixed become 6%, 7 arm will float to 8%.
So you want to refinance to 6%.
However, house price decreased, previously 500K because 300k, you are
underwater.
Results: pay extra money to get it refinance to 6% rate. Or keep the 8% rate.
That is what happened in 2010, why so many ppl have to foreclose or short-
sale.
【在 X******w 的大作中提到】
: 看7年ARM比30年fixed低一个多点，为什么大家不先用ARM，等靠近第七年的时候看利率
: 低就换成30年fixed？
: 请明白人给讲讲，谢谢
m*m
9 楼
你没有完全理解你这个例子。
假设房子从500k跌到100k，你会怎么做？refi？？当然是walk away，而且很可能早就
walk away了。那么谁赚了便宜？是ARM，因为他损失小。30年固定的打算继续hold那就
hold吧，你指望roller coaster再回来（就像这次一样），也是一种选择。但你也可以
认为选择ARM的人也许可以在walk away后很便宜地抄底重新进场，正像这几年发生的那
样。
那么换成平稳的例子，500k涨到了550k，这才是概率上占绝对优势的例子，ARM的吃亏
了么？至少他选择不吃“眼前亏”。
没有绝对的对错，但一定要明白例子背后的意义。
%.
rate.
【在 x*******a 的大作中提到】
: My 2 cents:
: Example:
: Now 30-yr fixed 4.5%, 7 arm 3.5%
: After 7 years, rate increases: 30yr-fixed become 6%, 7 arm will float to 8%.
: So you want to refinance to 6%.
: However, house price decreased, previously 500K because 300k, you are
: underwater.
: Results: pay extra money to get it refinance to 6% rate. Or keep the 8% rate.
: That is what happened in 2010, why so many ppl have to foreclose or short-
: sale.
假设房子从500k跌到100k，你会怎么做？refi？？当然是walk away，而且很可能早就
walk away了。那么谁赚了便宜？是ARM，因为他损失小。30年固定的打算继续hold那就
hold吧，你指望roller coaster再回来（就像这次一样），也是一种选择。但你也可以
认为选择ARM的人也许可以在walk away后很便宜地抄底重新进场，正像这几年发生的那
样。
那么换成平稳的例子，500k涨到了550k，这才是概率上占绝对优势的例子，ARM的吃亏
了么？至少他选择不吃“眼前亏”。
没有绝对的对错，但一定要明白例子背后的意义。
%.
rate.
【在 x*******a 的大作中提到】
: My 2 cents:
: Example:
: Now 30-yr fixed 4.5%, 7 arm 3.5%
: After 7 years, rate increases: 30yr-fixed become 6%, 7 arm will float to 8%.
: So you want to refinance to 6%.
: However, house price decreased, previously 500K because 300k, you are
: underwater.
: Results: pay extra money to get it refinance to 6% rate. Or keep the 8% rate.
: That is what happened in 2010, why so many ppl have to foreclose or short-
: sale.
l*c
10 楼
arm is good for 90% buyers, but 90% buyers are lazy and do not understand
ARM
【在 m**m 的大作中提到】
: 你没有完全理解你这个例子。
: 假设房子从500k跌到100k，你会怎么做？refi？？当然是walk away，而且很可能早就
: walk away了。那么谁赚了便宜？是ARM，因为他损失小。30年固定的打算继续hold那就
: hold吧，你指望roller coaster再回来（就像这次一样），也是一种选择。但你也可以
: 认为选择ARM的人也许可以在walk away后很便宜地抄底重新进场，正像这几年发生的那
: 样。
: 那么换成平稳的例子，500k涨到了550k，这才是概率上占绝对优势的例子，ARM的吃亏
: 了么？至少他选择不吃“眼前亏”。
: 没有绝对的对错，但一定要明白例子背后的意义。
:
ARM
【在 m**m 的大作中提到】
: 你没有完全理解你这个例子。
: 假设房子从500k跌到100k，你会怎么做？refi？？当然是walk away，而且很可能早就
: walk away了。那么谁赚了便宜？是ARM，因为他损失小。30年固定的打算继续hold那就
: hold吧，你指望roller coaster再回来（就像这次一样），也是一种选择。但你也可以
: 认为选择ARM的人也许可以在walk away后很便宜地抄底重新进场，正像这几年发生的那
: 样。
: 那么换成平稳的例子，500k涨到了550k，这才是概率上占绝对优势的例子，ARM的吃亏
: 了么？至少他选择不吃“眼前亏”。
: 没有绝对的对错，但一定要明白例子背后的意义。
:
l*c
11 楼
you are wrong
if 30 years fixed rate is 6%, 7 year arm will be adjust at most 4.5 %
because arm is one year float rate(libor rate + 2%), far below 30 year rate
anytime
%.
rate.
【在 x*******a 的大作中提到】
: My 2 cents:
: Example:
: Now 30-yr fixed 4.5%, 7 arm 3.5%
: After 7 years, rate increases: 30yr-fixed become 6%, 7 arm will float to 8%.
: So you want to refinance to 6%.
: However, house price decreased, previously 500K because 300k, you are
: underwater.
: Results: pay extra money to get it refinance to 6% rate. Or keep the 8% rate.
: That is what happened in 2010, why so many ppl have to foreclose or short-
: sale.
if 30 years fixed rate is 6%, 7 year arm will be adjust at most 4.5 %
because arm is one year float rate(libor rate + 2%), far below 30 year rate
anytime
%.
rate.
【在 x*******a 的大作中提到】
: My 2 cents:
: Example:
: Now 30-yr fixed 4.5%, 7 arm 3.5%
: After 7 years, rate increases: 30yr-fixed become 6%, 7 arm will float to 8%.
: So you want to refinance to 6%.
: However, house price decreased, previously 500K because 300k, you are
: underwater.
: Results: pay extra money to get it refinance to 6% rate. Or keep the 8% rate.
: That is what happened in 2010, why so many ppl have to foreclose or short-
: sale.
r*e
12 楼
you are wrong.
arm will float up 2% every year till a cap, normally around 9%.
rate
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: you are wrong
: if 30 years fixed rate is 6%, 7 year arm will be adjust at most 4.5 %
: because arm is one year float rate(libor rate + 2%), far below 30 year rate
: anytime
:
: %.
: rate.
arm will float up 2% every year till a cap, normally around 9%.
rate
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: you are wrong
: if 30 years fixed rate is 6%, 7 year arm will be adjust at most 4.5 %
: because arm is one year float rate(libor rate + 2%), far below 30 year rate
: anytime
:
: %.
: rate.
x*a
13 楼
我确实不大懂ARM，没做过，只是听说过和看过一些例子。
比如说如果每年的FLOATING RATE是2%，7/1 ARM是7年以后每年可以调2%，所以如果7年
以后利率高的话，很快就可以调到相当高的利率。
http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/02/real_estate/ARM_adjustable_rate
rate
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: you are wrong
: if 30 years fixed rate is 6%, 7 year arm will be adjust at most 4.5 %
: because arm is one year float rate(libor rate + 2%), far below 30 year rate
: anytime
:
: %.
: rate.
比如说如果每年的FLOATING RATE是2%，7/1 ARM是7年以后每年可以调2%，所以如果7年
以后利率高的话，很快就可以调到相当高的利率。
http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/02/real_estate/ARM_adjustable_rate
rate
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: you are wrong
: if 30 years fixed rate is 6%, 7 year arm will be adjust at most 4.5 %
: because arm is one year float rate(libor rate + 2%), far below 30 year rate
: anytime
:
: %.
: rate.
x*a
14 楼
如果是FIXED RATE, 如果房价跌的时候，他可以保持一个相对低的利率，比如说30年5%
，那么他还可以留在房子里等着涨回来。
但是有的人用了ARM 比如说4%, 7年以后，第一年涨到了6%还可以撑住，第二年涨到了8
%，如果他REFINANCE的话，又UNDERWATER, 这个时候就没有选择了，因为他付不起月供
了只能FORECLOSE.
WALK AWAYS并非那么简单，比如说你的DOWNPAY, 你UPGRADE，还有你的CREDIT，都是要
考虑的因素，并非纯数字。
可以
【在 m**m 的大作中提到】
: 你没有完全理解你这个例子。
: 假设房子从500k跌到100k，你会怎么做？refi？？当然是walk away，而且很可能早就
: walk away了。那么谁赚了便宜？是ARM，因为他损失小。30年固定的打算继续hold那就
: hold吧，你指望roller coaster再回来（就像这次一样），也是一种选择。但你也可以
: 认为选择ARM的人也许可以在walk away后很便宜地抄底重新进场，正像这几年发生的那
: 样。
: 那么换成平稳的例子，500k涨到了550k，这才是概率上占绝对优势的例子，ARM的吃亏
: 了么？至少他选择不吃“眼前亏”。
: 没有绝对的对错，但一定要明白例子背后的意义。
:
，那么他还可以留在房子里等着涨回来。
但是有的人用了ARM 比如说4%, 7年以后，第一年涨到了6%还可以撑住，第二年涨到了8
%，如果他REFINANCE的话，又UNDERWATER, 这个时候就没有选择了，因为他付不起月供
了只能FORECLOSE.
WALK AWAYS并非那么简单，比如说你的DOWNPAY, 你UPGRADE，还有你的CREDIT，都是要
考虑的因素，并非纯数字。
可以
【在 m**m 的大作中提到】
: 你没有完全理解你这个例子。
: 假设房子从500k跌到100k，你会怎么做？refi？？当然是walk away，而且很可能早就
: walk away了。那么谁赚了便宜？是ARM，因为他损失小。30年固定的打算继续hold那就
: hold吧，你指望roller coaster再回来（就像这次一样），也是一种选择。但你也可以
: 认为选择ARM的人也许可以在walk away后很便宜地抄底重新进场，正像这几年发生的那
: 样。
: 那么换成平稳的例子，500k涨到了550k，这才是概率上占绝对优势的例子，ARM的吃亏
: 了么？至少他选择不吃“眼前亏”。
: 没有绝对的对错，但一定要明白例子背后的意义。
:
l*c
15 楼
libor rate + 2.25% from Provident Funding
never heard one year rate higher than 30 year fixed.
I has one arm, and do not plan to refi.
right now the rate is 0.67 + 2.25 = 2.92%
if the rate goes up crazy, like 30 years fix rate is 15%, your cap is 9%.
then your arm rate is at most 9%
for 90% buyers, arm is the best choice, but most buyers do not understand
ARM
【在 r*********e 的大作中提到】
: you are wrong.
: arm will float up 2% every year till a cap, normally around 9%.
:
: rate
never heard one year rate higher than 30 year fixed.
I has one arm, and do not plan to refi.
right now the rate is 0.67 + 2.25 = 2.92%
if the rate goes up crazy, like 30 years fix rate is 15%, your cap is 9%.
then your arm rate is at most 9%
for 90% buyers, arm is the best choice, but most buyers do not understand
ARM
【在 r*********e 的大作中提到】
: you are wrong.
: arm will float up 2% every year till a cap, normally around 9%.
:
: rate
b*7
16 楼
5%
了8
ARM rate有上限的，7.75%。
under water跟ARM和fixed没啥关系，只要你欠的贷款额超过当时房价，就是说你卖房
都还不起贷款了，就是under water。和Refi更没什么关系，如果已经under water当然
要选择walk away，就是止损啊，除非你期望房子很快涨回来，或者懒得折腾换房子。
【在 x*******a 的大作中提到】
: 如果是FIXED RATE, 如果房价跌的时候，他可以保持一个相对低的利率，比如说30年5%
: ，那么他还可以留在房子里等着涨回来。
: 但是有的人用了ARM 比如说4%, 7年以后，第一年涨到了6%还可以撑住，第二年涨到了8
: %，如果他REFINANCE的话，又UNDERWATER, 这个时候就没有选择了，因为他付不起月供
: 了只能FORECLOSE.
: WALK AWAYS并非那么简单，比如说你的DOWNPAY, 你UPGRADE，还有你的CREDIT，都是要
: 考虑的因素，并非纯数字。
:
: 可以
l*c
17 楼
why Americans like 30 years fix rate,
reasons:
1 most Americans are bad at math, unable to do some elementary school level
calculation
2 spend up all the money every month
while Chinese are totally different
【在 x*******a 的大作中提到】
: 我确实不大懂ARM，没做过，只是听说过和看过一些例子。
: 比如说如果每年的FLOATING RATE是2%，7/1 ARM是7年以后每年可以调2%，所以如果7年
: 以后利率高的话，很快就可以调到相当高的利率。
: http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/02/real_estate/ARM_adjustable_rate
:
: rate
reasons:
1 most Americans are bad at math, unable to do some elementary school level
calculation
2 spend up all the money every month
while Chinese are totally different
【在 x*******a 的大作中提到】
: 我确实不大懂ARM，没做过，只是听说过和看过一些例子。
: 比如说如果每年的FLOATING RATE是2%，7/1 ARM是7年以后每年可以调2%，所以如果7年
: 以后利率高的话，很快就可以调到相当高的利率。
: http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/02/real_estate/ARM_adjustable_rate
:
: rate
h*z
18 楼
您的意见是现在的情况7年的arm比较好？
7年的arm是不是前提是你7年内要买房搬家或者你7年内能够还清贷款。
我比了一下30年的rate和7年的rate相差1%。
level
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: why Americans like 30 years fix rate,
: reasons:
: 1 most Americans are bad at math, unable to do some elementary school level
: calculation
: 2 spend up all the money every month
: while Chinese are totally different
7年的arm是不是前提是你7年内要买房搬家或者你7年内能够还清贷款。
我比了一下30年的rate和7年的rate相差1%。
level
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: why Americans like 30 years fix rate,
: reasons:
: 1 most Americans are bad at math, unable to do some elementary school level
: calculation
: 2 spend up all the money every month
: while Chinese are totally different
l*c
19 楼
The average movement time is 7 years for house owners.
if the difference is very small between 30 years and 7 ARM, 30 year fixed is
good. If more than 1% difference, consider 7 year arm
【在 h*z 的大作中提到】
: 您的意见是现在的情况7年的arm比较好？
: 7年的arm是不是前提是你7年内要买房搬家或者你7年内能够还清贷款。
: 我比了一下30年的rate和7年的rate相差1%。
:
: level
if the difference is very small between 30 years and 7 ARM, 30 year fixed is
good. If more than 1% difference, consider 7 year arm
【在 h*z 的大作中提到】
: 您的意见是现在的情况7年的arm比较好？
: 7年的arm是不是前提是你7年内要买房搬家或者你7年内能够还清贷款。
: 我比了一下30年的rate和7年的rate相差1%。
:
: level
g*3
20 楼
how about 5 ARM?
is
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: The average movement time is 7 years for house owners.
: if the difference is very small between 30 years and 7 ARM, 30 year fixed is
: good. If more than 1% difference, consider 7 year arm
is
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: The average movement time is 7 years for house owners.
: if the difference is very small between 30 years and 7 ARM, 30 year fixed is
: good. If more than 1% difference, consider 7 year arm
t*r
21 楼
现在的利率+5%
【在 b*******7 的大作中提到】
:
: 5%
: 了8
: ARM rate有上限的，7.75%。
: under water跟ARM和fixed没啥关系，只要你欠的贷款额超过当时房价，就是说你卖房
: 都还不起贷款了，就是under water。和Refi更没什么关系，如果已经under water当然
: 要选择walk away，就是止损啊，除非你期望房子很快涨回来，或者懒得折腾换房子。
【在 b*******7 的大作中提到】
:
: 5%
: 了8
: ARM rate有上限的，7.75%。
: under water跟ARM和fixed没啥关系，只要你欠的贷款额超过当时房价，就是说你卖房
: 都还不起贷款了，就是under water。和Refi更没什么关系，如果已经under water当然
: 要选择walk away，就是止损啊，除非你期望房子很快涨回来，或者懒得折腾换房子。
l*c
22 楼
a little bit risky
no big risk
suppose 5 year arm is 2.75%, 30 year fixed is 4.75% today,
you save 2% for 5 year, after 5 year, your rate is 5.25%(3+2.25)
30 year fixed is 6.5%,
you save money with 5 year arm within next 10 years.
because 4.75 - 2.75 > 5.25 - 4.75
that's the most likely case
【在 g***3 的大作中提到】
: how about 5 ARM?
:
: is
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8
no big risk
suppose 5 year arm is 2.75%, 30 year fixed is 4.75% today,
you save 2% for 5 year, after 5 year, your rate is 5.25%(3+2.25)
30 year fixed is 6.5%,
you save money with 5 year arm within next 10 years.
because 4.75 - 2.75 > 5.25 - 4.75
that's the most likely case
【在 g***3 的大作中提到】
: how about 5 ARM?
:
: is
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8
g*3
23 楼
Can I do another 5/7 ARM after my first 5 ARM end?
I am thinking if people keep doing ARM, that's always beat 30 fixed, why
30 fixed program still existed?
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: a little bit risky
: no big risk
: suppose 5 year arm is 2.75%, 30 year fixed is 4.75% today,
: you save 2% for 5 year, after 5 year, your rate is 5.25%(3+2.25)
: 30 year fixed is 6.5%,
: you save money with 5 year arm within next 10 years.
: because 4.75 - 2.75 > 5.25 - 4.75
: that's the most likely case
I am thinking if people keep doing ARM, that's always beat 30 fixed, why
30 fixed program still existed?
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: a little bit risky
: no big risk
: suppose 5 year arm is 2.75%, 30 year fixed is 4.75% today,
: you save 2% for 5 year, after 5 year, your rate is 5.25%(3+2.25)
: 30 year fixed is 6.5%,
: you save money with 5 year arm within next 10 years.
: because 4.75 - 2.75 > 5.25 - 4.75
: that's the most likely case
l*c
24 楼
why refi is not good:
because during the first 5 or 7 years, most of your payment is interest. you
need another 30 years to pay off.
that's the reason even if rates go down, people like me do not refi
but if you can afford to refi to a short term, like 15 years, that's good
choice
【在 g***3 的大作中提到】
: Can I do another 5/7 ARM after my first 5 ARM end?
: I am thinking if people keep doing ARM, that's always beat 30 fixed, why
: 30 fixed program still existed?
because during the first 5 or 7 years, most of your payment is interest. you
need another 30 years to pay off.
that's the reason even if rates go down, people like me do not refi
but if you can afford to refi to a short term, like 15 years, that's good
choice
【在 g***3 的大作中提到】
: Can I do another 5/7 ARM after my first 5 ARM end?
: I am thinking if people keep doing ARM, that's always beat 30 fixed, why
: 30 fixed program still existed?
g*3
25 楼
Here I don't understand. Lots of people are telling me about this.
But my math is like this:
Total loan amount = x
Total amount I paid for 30 year = Y (assuming I paid it off in 30)
Y is only determined by the interest rate in this 30 years period, isn't it?
I think the worst case which make 30 fixed beat 5/7 ARM is 5/7 year later,
even AMR's rate is much higher than current 30 fixed.
Besides, usually Chinese guys paid off their houses much quicker than that.
Correct me if I am wrong.
you
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: why refi is not good:
: because during the first 5 or 7 years, most of your payment is interest. you
: need another 30 years to pay off.
: that's the reason even if rates go down, people like me do not refi
: but if you can afford to refi to a short term, like 15 years, that's good
: choice
But my math is like this:
Total loan amount = x
Total amount I paid for 30 year = Y (assuming I paid it off in 30)
Y is only determined by the interest rate in this 30 years period, isn't it?
I think the worst case which make 30 fixed beat 5/7 ARM is 5/7 year later,
even AMR's rate is much higher than current 30 fixed.
Besides, usually Chinese guys paid off their houses much quicker than that.
Correct me if I am wrong.
you
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: why refi is not good:
: because during the first 5 or 7 years, most of your payment is interest. you
: need another 30 years to pay off.
: that's the reason even if rates go down, people like me do not refi
: but if you can afford to refi to a short term, like 15 years, that's good
: choice
l*c
26 楼
that's 100% correct
it?
【在 g***3 的大作中提到】
: Here I don't understand. Lots of people are telling me about this.
: But my math is like this:
: Total loan amount = x
: Total amount I paid for 30 year = Y (assuming I paid it off in 30)
: Y is only determined by the interest rate in this 30 years period, isn't it?
: I think the worst case which make 30 fixed beat 5/7 ARM is 5/7 year later,
: even AMR's rate is much higher than current 30 fixed.
: Besides, usually Chinese guys paid off their houses much quicker than that.
: Correct me if I am wrong.
:
it?
【在 g***3 的大作中提到】
: Here I don't understand. Lots of people are telling me about this.
: But my math is like this:
: Total loan amount = x
: Total amount I paid for 30 year = Y (assuming I paid it off in 30)
: Y is only determined by the interest rate in this 30 years period, isn't it?
: I think the worst case which make 30 fixed beat 5/7 ARM is 5/7 year later,
: even AMR's rate is much higher than current 30 fixed.
: Besides, usually Chinese guys paid off their houses much quicker than that.
: Correct me if I am wrong.
:
G*h
27 楼
you must be kidding
after 7 years, 30yr-fixed is 6%, then new 7 arm is 5%
just refi to another 7arm. what's the big deal?
%.
rate.
【在 x*******a 的大作中提到】
: My 2 cents:
: Example:
: Now 30-yr fixed 4.5%, 7 arm 3.5%
: After 7 years, rate increases: 30yr-fixed become 6%, 7 arm will float to 8%.
: So you want to refinance to 6%.
: However, house price decreased, previously 500K because 300k, you are
: underwater.
: Results: pay extra money to get it refinance to 6% rate. Or keep the 8% rate.
: That is what happened in 2010, why so many ppl have to foreclose or short-
: sale.
after 7 years, 30yr-fixed is 6%, then new 7 arm is 5%
just refi to another 7arm. what's the big deal?
%.
rate.
【在 x*******a 的大作中提到】
: My 2 cents:
: Example:
: Now 30-yr fixed 4.5%, 7 arm 3.5%
: After 7 years, rate increases: 30yr-fixed become 6%, 7 arm will float to 8%.
: So you want to refinance to 6%.
: However, house price decreased, previously 500K because 300k, you are
: underwater.
: Results: pay extra money to get it refinance to 6% rate. Or keep the 8% rate.
: That is what happened in 2010, why so many ppl have to foreclose or short-
: sale.
G*h
28 楼
if you have extra money, you can always pay extra principal and payoff
earlier
why wait 30years.
you
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: why refi is not good:
: because during the first 5 or 7 years, most of your payment is interest. you
: need another 30 years to pay off.
: that's the reason even if rates go down, people like me do not refi
: but if you can afford to refi to a short term, like 15 years, that's good
: choice
earlier
why wait 30years.
you
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: why refi is not good:
: because during the first 5 or 7 years, most of your payment is interest. you
: need another 30 years to pay off.
: that's the reason even if rates go down, people like me do not refi
: but if you can afford to refi to a short term, like 15 years, that's good
: choice
G*h
29 楼
surely you can
don't need to wait after your first 5 arm ends.
you can refi to another 5/7 arm any time you think the rate is good.
30-fixed is good when rate is low and going to be high.
ARM is generally fine if rate does not go to incredibly high, say 10+%.
【在 g***3 的大作中提到】
: Can I do another 5/7 ARM after my first 5 ARM end?
: I am thinking if people keep doing ARM, that's always beat 30 fixed, why
: 30 fixed program still existed?
don't need to wait after your first 5 arm ends.
you can refi to another 5/7 arm any time you think the rate is good.
30-fixed is good when rate is low and going to be high.
ARM is generally fine if rate does not go to incredibly high, say 10+%.
【在 g***3 的大作中提到】
: Can I do another 5/7 ARM after my first 5 ARM end?
: I am thinking if people keep doing ARM, that's always beat 30 fixed, why
: 30 fixed program still existed?
l*c
30 楼
that's another topic.
why extra pay is not good(if not right, please correct me)
suppose because extra pay every month, you pay off your 30 years loan in 15
years, that is, you are using 30 years rate to pay 15 years loan, absolutely
lose
【在 G*****h 的大作中提到】
: if you have extra money, you can always pay extra principal and payoff
: earlier
: why wait 30years.
:
: you
why extra pay is not good(if not right, please correct me)
suppose because extra pay every month, you pay off your 30 years loan in 15
years, that is, you are using 30 years rate to pay 15 years loan, absolutely
lose
【在 G*****h 的大作中提到】
: if you have extra money, you can always pay extra principal and payoff
: earlier
: why wait 30years.
:
: you
G*h
31 楼
but my 7-arm rate is still lower then 15-yr fixed rate.
15
absolutely
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: that's another topic.
: why extra pay is not good(if not right, please correct me)
: suppose because extra pay every month, you pay off your 30 years loan in 15
: years, that is, you are using 30 years rate to pay 15 years loan, absolutely
: lose
15
absolutely
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: that's another topic.
: why extra pay is not good(if not right, please correct me)
: suppose because extra pay every month, you pay off your 30 years loan in 15
: years, that is, you are using 30 years rate to pay 15 years loan, absolutely
: lose
x*a
32 楼
你可以看一下这个libor的历史记录，2006年左右的时候，是在5到6。所以加个2的
margin到8是完全可能的。
而且上限也是不一样的，我感觉利率高的时候，做arm的上限也比较高，我看到有9到12
的，现在利率低，可能银行给的上限也较低，比如说楼下的7.75
其实还是个人偏好，确实很多人做arm省钱的, 但是也最好当心一下风险，不要太撑就
是了
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: libor rate + 2.25% from Provident Funding
: never heard one year rate higher than 30 year fixed.
: I has one arm, and do not plan to refi.
: right now the rate is 0.67 + 2.25 = 2.92%
: if the rate goes up crazy, like 30 years fix rate is 15%, your cap is 9%.
: then your arm rate is at most 9%
: for 90% buyers, arm is the best choice, but most buyers do not understand
: ARM
margin到8是完全可能的。
而且上限也是不一样的，我感觉利率高的时候，做arm的上限也比较高，我看到有9到12
的，现在利率低，可能银行给的上限也较低，比如说楼下的7.75
其实还是个人偏好，确实很多人做arm省钱的, 但是也最好当心一下风险，不要太撑就
是了
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: libor rate + 2.25% from Provident Funding
: never heard one year rate higher than 30 year fixed.
: I has one arm, and do not plan to refi.
: right now the rate is 0.67 + 2.25 = 2.92%
: if the rate goes up crazy, like 30 years fix rate is 15%, your cap is 9%.
: then your arm rate is at most 9%
: for 90% buyers, arm is the best choice, but most buyers do not understand
: ARM
s*y
33 楼
this is correct in theory.
for an expensive property, 30 yr loan give you flexibility, which 15 yr
doesn't have. if the owner has some hardship, 30 yr mortgage can be
manageable, but not necessary for 15 yr loan.
15
absolutely
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: that's another topic.
: why extra pay is not good(if not right, please correct me)
: suppose because extra pay every month, you pay off your 30 years loan in 15
: years, that is, you are using 30 years rate to pay 15 years loan, absolutely
: lose
for an expensive property, 30 yr loan give you flexibility, which 15 yr
doesn't have. if the owner has some hardship, 30 yr mortgage can be
manageable, but not necessary for 15 yr loan.
15
absolutely
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: that's another topic.
: why extra pay is not good(if not right, please correct me)
: suppose because extra pay every month, you pay off your 30 years loan in 15
: years, that is, you are using 30 years rate to pay 15 years loan, absolutely
: lose
x*a
34 楼
如果房价不跌的话是没问题的.但是假如2007年的情况发生，你贷了20万，而房子这时
候只直15万，那你只能做15万的refinance, 自己要补5万。要不你就的用原来的arm,
2007年 5 .5 + 2 = 7.5
【在 G*****h 的大作中提到】
: you must be kidding
: after 7 years, 30yr-fixed is 6%, then new 7 arm is 5%
: just refi to another 7arm. what's the big deal?
:
: %.
: rate.
候只直15万，那你只能做15万的refinance, 自己要补5万。要不你就的用原来的arm,
2007年 5 .5 + 2 = 7.5
【在 G*****h 的大作中提到】
: you must be kidding
: after 7 years, 30yr-fixed is 6%, then new 7 arm is 5%
: just refi to another 7arm. what's the big deal?
:
: %.
: rate.
x*a
35 楼
http://www.business.cch.com/bankingfinance/focus/news/Subprime_
http://depts.washington.edu/pbaf578/ARMs,%20Not%20Subprimes,%20
这里有两篇讲2007 crisis的文章，总的说来就是2004年以前利率极低，地产泡泡吹起
来了。然后04到06年，利率从1升到5，从arm开始，泡泡破了
Libor
http://www.moneycafe.com/personal-finance/libor/
http://depts.washington.edu/pbaf578/ARMs,%20Not%20Subprimes,%20
这里有两篇讲2007 crisis的文章，总的说来就是2004年以前利率极低，地产泡泡吹起
来了。然后04到06年，利率从1升到5，从arm开始，泡泡破了
Libor
http://www.moneycafe.com/personal-finance/libor/
l*7
36 楼
请教你这个专家。
2年前我家5年ARM是3.25%，这次换成了2.625%。
想当2年前的利息都白交了，对么？这样是不是根本就没省什么钱了？
15
absolutely
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: that's another topic.
: why extra pay is not good(if not right, please correct me)
: suppose because extra pay every month, you pay off your 30 years loan in 15
: years, that is, you are using 30 years rate to pay 15 years loan, absolutely
: lose
2年前我家5年ARM是3.25%，这次换成了2.625%。
想当2年前的利息都白交了，对么？这样是不是根本就没省什么钱了？
15
absolutely
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: that's another topic.
: why extra pay is not good(if not right, please correct me)
: suppose because extra pay every month, you pay off your 30 years loan in 15
: years, that is, you are using 30 years rate to pay 15 years loan, absolutely
: lose
h*z
37 楼
万一7年内没有卖房的话，利率上去了，是不是反而比不上30年fixed的？
多谢！
is
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: The average movement time is 7 years for house owners.
: if the difference is very small between 30 years and 7 ARM, 30 year fixed is
: good. If more than 1% difference, consider 7 year arm
多谢！
is
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: The average movement time is 7 years for house owners.
: if the difference is very small between 30 years and 7 ARM, 30 year fixed is
: good. If more than 1% difference, consider 7 year arm
l*c
38 楼
if the market is flat, ownership cost more. You bought it two years ago,
the appreciation is over 40%, and you enjoy your life in it
I have another point, maybe most will not agree:
you will never pay off your debt on your house. In fact, for many owners,
property tax is over $10,000 per year.
so, you have mortgage or not, you need pay money every month. do not worry
when to pay off the mortgage.
Then why buy a house?
1. life quality, 2 appreciation 3 social activity for child, etc.
【在 l**********7 的大作中提到】
: 请教你这个专家。
: 2年前我家5年ARM是3.25%，这次换成了2.625%。
: 想当2年前的利息都白交了，对么？这样是不是根本就没省什么钱了？
:
: 15
: absolutely
the appreciation is over 40%, and you enjoy your life in it
I have another point, maybe most will not agree:
you will never pay off your debt on your house. In fact, for many owners,
property tax is over $10,000 per year.
so, you have mortgage or not, you need pay money every month. do not worry
when to pay off the mortgage.
Then why buy a house?
1. life quality, 2 appreciation 3 social activity for child, etc.
【在 l**********7 的大作中提到】
: 请教你这个专家。
: 2年前我家5年ARM是3.25%，这次换成了2.625%。
: 想当2年前的利息都白交了，对么？这样是不是根本就没省什么钱了？
:
: 15
: absolutely
l*c
39 楼
possible
but you save 1% - 2% for the first 7 years, after 7 years, your rate is
still below the 30 year fixed rate at that time.
in normal case , within next 14 years, you will not lose money compared with
30 year fixed loan. 14 years is long time ..
This is normal case
Recently, 3,25% for 30 years is abnormal case, please understand
【在 h*z 的大作中提到】
: 万一7年内没有卖房的话，利率上去了，是不是反而比不上30年fixed的？
: 多谢！
:
: is
but you save 1% - 2% for the first 7 years, after 7 years, your rate is
still below the 30 year fixed rate at that time.
in normal case , within next 14 years, you will not lose money compared with
30 year fixed loan. 14 years is long time ..
This is normal case
Recently, 3,25% for 30 years is abnormal case, please understand
【在 h*z 的大作中提到】
: 万一7年内没有卖房的话，利率上去了，是不是反而比不上30年fixed的？
: 多谢！
:
: is
h*z
40 楼
多谢！
就是说如果现在30年的rate还是3.25-3.5%，那还是做30年fixed的?
但现在的情况是30年的是4.5%或者更高了，那应该做7年的arm？
是这个意思吗？
多谢！
with
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: possible
: but you save 1% - 2% for the first 7 years, after 7 years, your rate is
: still below the 30 year fixed rate at that time.
: in normal case , within next 14 years, you will not lose money compared with
: 30 year fixed loan. 14 years is long time ..
: This is normal case
: Recently, 3,25% for 30 years is abnormal case, please understand
就是说如果现在30年的rate还是3.25-3.5%，那还是做30年fixed的?
但现在的情况是30年的是4.5%或者更高了，那应该做7年的arm？
是这个意思吗？
多谢！
with
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: possible
: but you save 1% - 2% for the first 7 years, after 7 years, your rate is
: still below the 30 year fixed rate at that time.
: in normal case , within next 14 years, you will not lose money compared with
: 30 year fixed loan. 14 years is long time ..
: This is normal case
: Recently, 3,25% for 30 years is abnormal case, please understand
h*z
41 楼
大侠再请教一个问题，不过我选择30年还是7年的arm，
有没有必要每个月多pay 100-200美元到本金里面去，这样的话，总的算来，我
交的利息会少一些。这样的做法可取吗？
多谢！
with
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: possible
: but you save 1% - 2% for the first 7 years, after 7 years, your rate is
: still below the 30 year fixed rate at that time.
: in normal case , within next 14 years, you will not lose money compared with
: 30 year fixed loan. 14 years is long time ..
: This is normal case
: Recently, 3,25% for 30 years is abnormal case, please understand
有没有必要每个月多pay 100-200美元到本金里面去，这样的话，总的算来，我
交的利息会少一些。这样的做法可取吗？
多谢！
with
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: possible
: but you save 1% - 2% for the first 7 years, after 7 years, your rate is
: still below the 30 year fixed rate at that time.
: in normal case , within next 14 years, you will not lose money compared with
: 30 year fixed loan. 14 years is long time ..
: This is normal case
: Recently, 3,25% for 30 years is abnormal case, please understand
l*7
42 楼
en ，房子升值15-20万了已经。
为什么不要payoff啊，我今天看了一下，就算是5年的，我发现到5年的时候我的利息是
4万多。再算算一年能抵的利息，5年也就抵1万。
不过5年以后利息就少很多了。但是5年后利率又涨了。所以我还是打算提前还清。另外
和上面楼相同的问题，如果现在每个月都多还1000，是不是每月的利息会少呢？
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: if the market is flat, ownership cost more. You bought it two years ago,
: the appreciation is over 40%, and you enjoy your life in it
: I have another point, maybe most will not agree:
: you will never pay off your debt on your house. In fact, for many owners,
: property tax is over $10,000 per year.
: so, you have mortgage or not, you need pay money every month. do not worry
: when to pay off the mortgage.
: Then why buy a house?
: 1. life quality, 2 appreciation 3 social activity for child, etc.
为什么不要payoff啊，我今天看了一下，就算是5年的，我发现到5年的时候我的利息是
4万多。再算算一年能抵的利息，5年也就抵1万。
不过5年以后利息就少很多了。但是5年后利率又涨了。所以我还是打算提前还清。另外
和上面楼相同的问题，如果现在每个月都多还1000，是不是每月的利息会少呢？
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: if the market is flat, ownership cost more. You bought it two years ago,
: the appreciation is over 40%, and you enjoy your life in it
: I have another point, maybe most will not agree:
: you will never pay off your debt on your house. In fact, for many owners,
: property tax is over $10,000 per year.
: so, you have mortgage or not, you need pay money every month. do not worry
: when to pay off the mortgage.
: Then why buy a house?
: 1. life quality, 2 appreciation 3 social activity for child, etc.
G*h
43 楼
yes, but you need to make sure the overpay goes to principal.
troublesome to contact mortgage cs once a month.
【在 l**********7 的大作中提到】
: en ，房子升值15-20万了已经。
: 为什么不要payoff啊，我今天看了一下，就算是5年的，我发现到5年的时候我的利息是
: 4万多。再算算一年能抵的利息，5年也就抵1万。
: 不过5年以后利息就少很多了。但是5年后利率又涨了。所以我还是打算提前还清。另外
: 和上面楼相同的问题，如果现在每个月都多还1000，是不是每月的利息会少呢？
s*n
44 楼
Most ARM comes with margin. 5/2/5 is the most common one, so the highest
rate you get in that case is your initial rate+5%. That also helps.
Yet another effect is that you pay more principal during the first 5/7 years
because you have lower rate often even with less monthly payment.
【在 G*****h 的大作中提到】
: surely you can
: don't need to wait after your first 5 arm ends.
: you can refi to another 5/7 arm any time you think the rate is good.
: 30-fixed is good when rate is low and going to be high.
: ARM is generally fine if rate does not go to incredibly high, say 10+%.
rate you get in that case is your initial rate+5%. That also helps.
Yet another effect is that you pay more principal during the first 5/7 years
because you have lower rate often even with less monthly payment.
【在 G*****h 的大作中提到】
: surely you can
: don't need to wait after your first 5 arm ends.
: you can refi to another 5/7 arm any time you think the rate is good.
: 30-fixed is good when rate is low and going to be high.
: ARM is generally fine if rate does not go to incredibly high, say 10+%.
l*c
45 楼
ask yourself
do you feel well if you pay off a mortgage within 15 years but use the 30
years rate?
for example, 15 year loan is 3%, 30 years is 4%, you pay off your loan
within 15 years, rate is 4%
【在 l**********7 的大作中提到】
: en ，房子升值15-20万了已经。
: 为什么不要payoff啊，我今天看了一下，就算是5年的，我发现到5年的时候我的利息是
: 4万多。再算算一年能抵的利息，5年也就抵1万。
: 不过5年以后利息就少很多了。但是5年后利率又涨了。所以我还是打算提前还清。另外
: 和上面楼相同的问题，如果现在每个月都多还1000，是不是每月的利息会少呢？
do you feel well if you pay off a mortgage within 15 years but use the 30
years rate?
for example, 15 year loan is 3%, 30 years is 4%, you pay off your loan
within 15 years, rate is 4%
【在 l**********7 的大作中提到】
: en ，房子升值15-20万了已经。
: 为什么不要payoff啊，我今天看了一下，就算是5年的，我发现到5年的时候我的利息是
: 4万多。再算算一年能抵的利息，5年也就抵1万。
: 不过5年以后利息就少很多了。但是5年后利率又涨了。所以我还是打算提前还清。另外
: 和上面楼相同的问题，如果现在每个月都多还1000，是不是每月的利息会少呢？
l*7
46 楼
我用5年的.所以打算5年付清.选30年利息太高了.
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: ask yourself
: do you feel well if you pay off a mortgage within 15 years but use the 30
: years rate?
: for example, 15 year loan is 3%, 30 years is 4%, you pay off your loan
: within 15 years, rate is 4%
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】
: ask yourself
: do you feel well if you pay off a mortgage within 15 years but use the 30
: years rate?
: for example, 15 year loan is 3%, 30 years is 4%, you pay off your loan
: within 15 years, rate is 4%
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