【在 r*m 的大作中提到】 : where's all the DF holders? all cut meat already? Holiday season is here, : people will use more milk products for sure. Shall we pump it?
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】 : where's all the DF holders? all cut meat already? Holiday season is here, : people will use more milk products for sure. Shall we pump it?
Yes, 找专业的人有用! 自己搞个steam cleaner is no good, especially on some stains. One of my neighbors had his carpet cleaned by 专业的人 before he sold his house last year, it took a few hours and cost several hundred dollars. I saw it before and after the cleaning since I had a plan to do the same (instead my plan has since changed to hardwood floor). I think it was totally worth it for my neighbor - the old carpet looked like brand-new and his house was under contract over a weekend, sold within a month.
跟它死磕吧.现在DF需要时间来cut cost. 一旦debt有减少的迹象,股票就会上去. 我研究了一下它的balance sheet. 破产可能性有但是不大,它的品牌(goodwill)还值 点钱.但是它有不象coke能pass through rising cost through raising prices. 关 键点还是milk的品牌太难搞了,垄断没法建立起来. hold your shares for some time (in terms of months). When sell, don't get greedy.
【在 MO 的大作中提到】 : 靠,帮主,我7.7x 进的牛奶会不会放过期啦
m*y
12 楼
wow, well worth the money. For us, the steam cleaner is more to clean the mess from the little kid, such as spilled milk/juice. We never tried to clean the whole house by ourselves. Too much work.
the was and
【在 m*****3 的大作中提到】 : Yes, 找专业的人有用! 自己搞个steam cleaner is no good, especially on some : stains. One of my neighbors had his carpet cleaned by 专业的人 before he : sold his house last year, it took a few hours and cost several hundred : dollars. I saw it before and after the cleaning since I had a plan to do the : same (instead my plan has since changed to hardwood floor). I think it was : totally worth it for my neighbor - the old carpet looked like brand-new and : his house was under contract over a weekend, sold within a month.
h*r
13 楼
it will be up at least two weeks or months.
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】 : where's all the DF holders? all cut meat already? Holiday season is here, : people will use more milk products for sure. Shall we pump it?
r*e
14 楼
能,但不如专业。
t*g
15 楼
One concern, economy is not good, people switching brand milk with less expensive store brand milk. If the slopyness goes on, DF might have trouble meet it's debt payment next year or 2012.
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】 : where's all the DF holders? all cut meat already? Holiday season is here, : people will use more milk products for sure. Shall we pump it?
【在 c**u 的大作中提到】 : 跟它死磕吧.现在DF需要时间来cut cost. 一旦debt有减少的迹象,股票就会上去. : 我研究了一下它的balance sheet. 破产可能性有但是不大,它的品牌(goodwill)还值 : 点钱.但是它有不象coke能pass through rising cost through raising prices. 关 : 键点还是milk的品牌太难搞了,垄断没法建立起来. : hold your shares for some time (in terms of months). When sell, don't get : greedy.
milk is somewhat commodity like no matter what... DF lack the quality to be a long term hold. You are betting on short term turn around...
【在 c**u 的大作中提到】 : 跟它死磕吧.现在DF需要时间来cut cost. 一旦debt有减少的迹象,股票就会上去. : 我研究了一下它的balance sheet. 破产可能性有但是不大,它的品牌(goodwill)还值 : 点钱.但是它有不象coke能pass through rising cost through raising prices. 关 : 键点还是milk的品牌太难搞了,垄断没法建立起来. : hold your shares for some time (in terms of months). When sell, don't get : greedy.
d*y
21 楼
帮主,这个题材不好,还没有想象空间。换一个吧?
l*u
22 楼
keke...Walmart borrows to pay dividend and repurchase shares too ... It is about borrowing cost versus return on invested capital. I don't know about the bowwrow cost for DF though...
sell credit take
【在 t******g 的大作中提到】
t*g
23 楼
Let's look at things case by case
r*m
24 楼
let's hope DF will be take over for $12 a share, let's hope....
t*g
25 楼
My target is milder: bookvalue +20% premium, 10 is more likely Just wonder how to raise the interests from Backstone, Bain capital, Pershing square etc.
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】 : let's hope DF will be take over for $12 a share, let's hope....
r*m
26 楼
OK, deal. I will take $10.06 a share.
t*g
27 楼
It's a high high high risk hope, you can only bet with money that can be lost Pepsi Co. just bought a russian diary (Wimm-Bill-Dann) yesterday, no identified buyer for DF yet Remember the lesson from PALM: the outsider buyer had been known for a long time, everyone thought PALM will be buyout when stock price is 15+, but the buyer keep waiting until the stock crashes and get a fire sale price Also the recent sale of WL ...
【在 t******g 的大作中提到】 : My target is milder: bookvalue +20% premium, 10 is more likely : Just wonder how to raise the interests from Backstone, Bain capital, : Pershing square etc.
t*g
28 楼
Based on some old rumor, the following three have shown interest for DF Pepsi, Nestle, Danone But because of the huge debt, no one wanted the stinking elephant (no takeover), they are only interested in three DF brands: Whitewave, Soysilk and Horizon. If those brands are sold, time to retreat from DF amid rebound.
long the
【在 t******g 的大作中提到】 : It's a high high high risk hope, you can only bet with money that can be : lost : Pepsi Co. just bought a russian diary (Wimm-Bill-Dann) yesterday, no : identified buyer for DF yet : Remember the lesson from PALM: the outsider buyer had been known for a long : time, everyone thought PALM will be buyout when stock price is 15+, but the : buyer keep waiting until the stock crashes and get a fire sale price : Also the recent sale of WL ...
r*m
29 楼
Thanks for the info!
【在 t******g 的大作中提到】 : Based on some old rumor, the following three have shown interest for DF : Pepsi, Nestle, Danone : But because of the huge debt, no one wanted the stinking elephant (no : takeover), they are only interested in three DF brands: Whitewave, Soysilk : and Horizon. : If those brands are sold, time to retreat from DF amid rebound. : : long : the
l*u
30 楼
Well said, that sounds fishy I have never looked DF seriously since the company has hardly any moat :-) You mean, the management deliberately ruined the balance sheet to stop takeovers?
to , value
【在 t******g 的大作中提到】 : Let's look at things case by case
It was questioned by someone from Stifel Nicolaus (?) in 2007 during the cc, the management were not happy and avoided discussion of the capital cost. They said leverage will be back to normal at 2009, which turn out to be a lie (of course, they don't have the vision that economy will be so bad) Normally to adjust capital structure, the company issue debt to buy back stock to achieve an optimal debt/equity ratio, but the company stop stock purchase after the dividend. As a result, it was commented that the special dividend was a poison pill to avoid take-over
【在 t******g 的大作中提到】 : Let's look at things case by case
l*u
35 楼
学习了!:-)
cc, special
【在 t******g 的大作中提到】 : It was questioned by someone from Stifel Nicolaus (?) in 2007 during the cc, : the management were not happy and avoided discussion of the capital cost. : They said leverage will be back to normal at 2009, which turn out to be a : lie (of course, they don't have the vision that economy will be so bad) : Normally to adjust capital structure, the company issue debt to buy back : stock to achieve an optimal debt/equity ratio, but the company stop stock : purchase after the dividend. As a result, it was commented that the special : dividend was a poison pill to avoid take-over
If stock is overpriced, then do a secondary offer, or raise debt to get more cash and buy others. Even do nothing is better than raise debt to pay dividend. 从股东手里骗点钱不容易,没事干嘛送回去, 你当managment是活雷锋?
Fitch downgraded credit ratings of Dean Foods tonite a day after S&P downgrade. S&P downgrade accounted for around 25 cents drop on a market-huge-up Thursday. If marget goes down a lot as RIM says next week, I dunno what's gonna happen with DF. Of course RIM only holds 500 DF shares as usual. I never worry about leader #5. But any followers should be warned.
【在 b******r 的大作中提到】 : Fitch downgraded credit ratings of Dean Foods tonite a day after S&P downgrade. : S&P downgrade accounted for around 25 cents drop on a market-huge-up : Thursday. : If marget goes down a lot as RIM says next week, I dunno what's gonna happen : with DF. Of course RIM only holds 500 DF shares as usual. I never : worry about leader #5. But any followers should be warned.
放个MHP 当时没有回复, 在想你怎么也会着了这个道,因为打算建仓了 rating agencies always come late to the party 在这之前,季报的interest coverage ratio 已经降到了1左右,bond 不降级说不过去 ,对不起paycheck 因为税收的原因的dump差不多了,2010年还有两周不到的交易日 股价企稳了,再来一个legdown的可能性非常小,DF没有破产的风险,在赚钱,更重要的是, 最坏的情况,可以把增长的那个分部出售 现在milk的价格上升了,当然短期对DF 没直接好处,butterfat 价格跌下来了,当然 上一QT特别一点,因为DF从butterfat 卖出方成了买入方 但至少都说明稳定了下来 到下一个caveat 出问题,最早也要明年二月才会显现出来 中间有足够的时间,让人pump 做一轮
downgrade. happen
【在 b******r 的大作中提到】 : Fitch downgraded credit ratings of Dean Foods tonite a day after S&P downgrade. : S&P downgrade accounted for around 25 cents drop on a market-huge-up : Thursday. : If marget goes down a lot as RIM says next week, I dunno what's gonna happen : with DF. Of course RIM only holds 500 DF shares as usual. I never : worry about leader #5. But any followers should be warned.
【在 j*****h 的大作中提到】 : 放个MHP : 当时没有回复, 在想你怎么也会着了这个道,因为打算建仓了 : rating agencies always come late to the party : 在这之前,季报的interest coverage ratio 已经降到了1左右,bond 不降级说不过去 : ,对不起paycheck : 因为税收的原因的dump差不多了,2010年还有两周不到的交易日 : 股价企稳了,再来一个legdown的可能性非常小,DF没有破产的风险,在赚钱,更重要的是, 最坏的情况,可以把增长的那个分部出售 : 现在milk的价格上升了,当然短期对DF 没直接好处,butterfat 价格跌下来了,当然 : 上一QT特别一点,因为DF从butterfat 卖出方成了买入方 : 但至少都说明稳定了下来
L*m
49 楼
帮主不是浪得虚名的。
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】 : where's all the DF holders? all cut meat already? Holiday season is here, : people will use more milk products for sure. Shall we pump it?
L*3
50 楼
I like this comment! Jack牛!
要的是, 最坏的情况,可以把增长的那个分部出售
【在 j*****h 的大作中提到】 : 放个MHP : 当时没有回复, 在想你怎么也会着了这个道,因为打算建仓了 : rating agencies always come late to the party : 在这之前,季报的interest coverage ratio 已经降到了1左右,bond 不降级说不过去 : ,对不起paycheck : 因为税收的原因的dump差不多了,2010年还有两周不到的交易日 : 股价企稳了,再来一个legdown的可能性非常小,DF没有破产的风险,在赚钱,更重要的是, 最坏的情况,可以把增长的那个分部出售 : 现在milk的价格上升了,当然短期对DF 没直接好处,butterfat 价格跌下来了,当然 : 上一QT特别一点,因为DF从butterfat 卖出方成了买入方 : 但至少都说明稳定了下来