新冠会反复感染吗?会有后遗症吗?中疾控专家回应
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当前疫情发展形势是怎样的?
Since the second half of this year, domestic outbreaks have been primarily driven by local transmissions of the virus across different regions, rather than imported infections. Meanwhile, the dominant strain of Omicron is highly transmissible with a shorter incubation period, a shorter generation interval and decreasing pathogenicity and virulence. With a large proportion of infected cases being asymptomatic combined with the stealthy spread of the virus, disease control work is facing great difficulties.
2022年12月8日,在上海火车站南广场,旅客有序前往入口。图源:新华社
Adjusting COVID-19 control policies is imperative. Thankfully, with three years of preparations, we have fully vaccinated more than 90 percent of people age 3 and above, which creates favorable conditions for modifying policies.
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短期来看,政策调整可能对疫情产生什么样的影响?
The majority will get infected once no matter how adjustments are made. The specific time of the first wave of impact will depend on a number of factors such as population movement. Based on math models, during the peak of the first wave, it is estimated that 60 percent of the nation’s population will get infected before stabilizing. Eventually, 80 to 90 percent could get infected.
2022年7月13日,在北京市朝阳区奥运村街道一处新冠疫苗接种点,医护人员为一名86岁的市民接种新冠疫苗加强针。图源:新华社
In the meantime, we should step up preparedness by reducing gatherings and flattening the curve, strengthening medical systems and accelerating vaccination.
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长期来看,未来疫情会朝着什么方向发展?
With broader immunity induced by either vaccination or natural infection, Omicron will likely develop into a seasonable respiratory contagious disease. We might need to get an updated vaccine tailored to new variants in the future.
Overall, the virus has become milder. Available data shows that over 50 percent of Omicron patients are asymptomatic, and nearly 50 percent only exhibit mild symptoms.
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如何看待重复感染、长新冠和后遗症的问题?
2022年12月1日,在广州市荔湾区广钢新城,居民在选购蔬菜。图源:新华社
There is no definitive evidence to support the idea that reinfection could increase the risk of severe cases. Long COVID-19 symptoms are also being studied, but most recovered patients recuperate in a short period of time. There is no need to overstress about lingering symptoms.
2022年3月15日,重庆工商大学核酸检测现场。图源:新华社
Infection will become a normal and unavoidable event in the future. It is important to keep wearing masks and keep your hands clean, and avoid close contact or visiting public spaces after being infected.
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