感染新冠后,再次感染的风险到底有多高?
不知不觉,新冠爆发流行已经三年了!随着重复感染新冠的发病率越来越高,许多曾经感染过的人开始担心再次感染的风险。
那么首次感染新冠后,再次感染新冠的风险到底有多高呢?
一般来讲重复感染是由于之前感染所获得免疫力不足以抵御其他新出现的病毒亚变体时发生的。新的变种不断出现,特别目前的奥蜜克戎变种传染力极强,使重复感染的风险增加。
本文的总结主要基于加拿大安大略省公共卫生厅(Public Health Ontario), 2022年8月份的一项荟萃研究。这项研究报告对2022年1月至2022年8月来自20个国家的37篇相关文献加以总结分析,涉及的毒株为阿尔法,德尔塔,及奥蜜克戎变体包括BA1, BA2, BA4, BA5。因为研究期间中国的疫情控制得非常好,所以没有来自中国的数据。
阿尔法 (Alpha): 重复感染率为 0.57% (95% CI: 0.28%-0.94%)
德尔塔 (Delta): 重复感染率为1.25% (95% CI: 0.97,1.55)
奥蜜克戎 (Omicron): 12篇研究结果表明重复感染率差别很大,在3.31%-15.32%左右。而最近的两篇报告 (参考资料2,3) 表明奥蜜克戎的重复感染率更高:分别为28.4% 和 34.4%。自奥蜜克戎流行以来,新冠重复感染的发病率明显升高。
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参考资料:
1. https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/Documents/nCoV/voc/2022/10/reinfections-sars-cov2-omicron-variant.pdf?rev=09e2c670a6fb43838fd06db1446e4b56&sc_lang=en#:~:text=(2022)%20examined%20the%20rate%20of,those%20with%20%3E2%20vaccines%20doses.
2. Malhotra S, Mani K, Lodha R, Bakhshi S, Mathur VP, Gupta P, et al. COVID-19 infection, and reinfection, and vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection among health care workers in the setting of omicron variant transmission in New Delhi, India. Lancet Reg Health Southeast Asia. 2022;3:100023. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lansea.2022.100023
3. Nunes MC, Mbotwe-Sibanda S, Baillie VL, Kwatra G, Aguas R, Madhi SA, et al. SARS-CoV-2 Omicron symptomatic infections in previously infected or vaccinated South African healthcare workers. Vaccines (Basel). 2022;10(3). Available from: https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines10030459
4. Jang EJ, Choe YJ, Yun GW, Wang S, Cho UJ, Yi S, et al. Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 in general population, South Korea; nationwide retrospective cohort study. J Med Virol. 2022 Jul 25 [Epub ahead of print]. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.28026。
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