特朗普官司缠身 | 经济学人美国
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United States | Stormy whether
United States | Stormy whether
The cases against Donald Trump are piling upThe Manhattan DA’s indictment, if it comes, will not be the last one如果曼哈顿地方检察官院提起诉讼，这也不会是最后一次（针对特朗普的诉讼）。Some countries are fonder of chucking former leaders into prison than others. South Korea has convicted three prime ministers and two presidents in the past decade. In the span of a single year, French courts handed convictions down to Nicolas Sarkozy, its former president, and François Fillon, his former prime minister. In this regard, America is exceptional—having jailed no ex-president in its entire history. Even Richard Nixon was given a pardon to spare him the indignity of a trial after the Watergate scandal.有些国家特别喜欢把前领导人投进监狱。过去十年里，韩国的三位总理和两位总统锒铛入狱。短短一年内，法国法院先后判处前总统尼古拉·萨科齐（Nicolas Sarkozy）和他任命的总理弗朗索瓦·菲永（François Fillon）有罪，让他们进了监狱。在这方面，美国倒是很不一样——它还没有将前总统送进监狱的先例。哪怕是“水门事件”中的理查德·尼克松也获得赦免没有被审判，从而保住了颜面。But Donald Trump may soon break that precedent, too. Manhattan prosecutors are weighing whether to arrest the former president for covering up hush-money payments in the waning days of the 2016 presidential campaign to Stephanie Clifford (better known by her performing name, Stormy Daniels), a former adult-film actress, who says they had sex once. Such an extraordinary sentence would have felled a lesser politician, who might have permanently slunk out of the public eye. But not Mr Trump.不过特朗普可能很快要打破这个先例了。曼哈顿检察官还在考虑是否就特朗普涉嫌掩盖在2016年美国大选前夕向斯蒂芬妮·克利福德（Stephanie Clifford）【更广为人知的是她的艺名“风暴姐”斯托米·丹尼尔斯（Stormy Daniels）】支付封口费一事逮捕这位前总统。这位前成人电影女演员声称自己曾与特朗普发生过一次关系。这种严肃宣判可能会直接断送次要政客的政治生涯，使其永久淡出公众视野。但特朗普不会有这个下场。Stephanie Clifford：斯蒂芬妮·克利福德，又名斯托米·瓦特斯(Stormy Waters)，1979年3月17日出生于美国路易斯安那州巴吞鲁日，美国女导演、编剧、模特、制片人、演员。2018年就与唐纳德·特朗普的丑闻事件而出版其个人首部书籍《全面披露（Full Disclosure）》。The past (and would-be future) president called for his supporters to rally to his defence—in ways that echoed his messages ahead of the attack on the Capitol by his supporters on January 6th 2021. “they’re killing our nation as we sit back & watch” he wrote on the social-media platform he started, Truth Social, where “all caps” seems to be the default setting. “protest, take our nation back!”. Mr Trump’s deduction from January 6th seems to be that summoning a mob works well for him. Police set up barricades outside Manhattan’s criminal court in anticipation of the indictment. Numerous bomb threats have already been made.这位前总统（还可能是未来的总统）号召他的支持者联合起来为他辩护，这种行为与特朗普在“国会山骚乱”事件爆发前发布的消息很相似。2021年1月6日发生的骚乱正是因特朗普支持者袭击国会山而起。他在自创的社交媒体“真实社交（Truth Social）”上写道：“他们（民主党）正在杀死我们的国家，而我们却在袖手旁观无所作为！”，“抗议！夺回我们的国家！”。在这个平台上，“全大写”似乎是默认设置。这样看来特朗普从“国会山骚乱”中得到的结论是，召集暴徒对他而言十分有效。警方在曼哈顿刑事法庭外设置了路障，以应对特朗普被起诉后可能导致的暴乱。目前已有多起炸弹威胁。So begins a years-long spat which will upend American politics. Having received a respite from Trumpian storm and stress, American media are returning to their previous patterns of coverage (see chart). Mr Trump will, in all likelihood, fight to be president while his lawyers try to defuse a criminal trial—rather like Israel’s prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who is busy defanging his country’s supreme court now that he is back in power. The news plays into Mr Trump’s fearmongering about the deep state, which he has recommitted to destroying once he is back in the White House in January 2025. Grandees in the Republican Party have rallied to the president’s defence, including would-be rivals for the party’s presidential nomination in 2024, whose task has just become more complicated.一场将长达数年且将颠覆美国政局的口水仗就此拉开序幕。美国媒体刚从特朗普时期的狂风暴雨和爆表压力中喘了口气，现在又重回了以前的报道模式（见图）。特朗普极有可能一边让他的律师解决对他的刑事审判，一边竞选总统。这种操作就跟以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡（Binyamin Netanyahu）很像——内塔尼亚胡重掌政权后就马不停蹄地削弱了国家最高法院的权力。如今特朗普或被起诉，这正好助他制造对深层政府的恐惧。他一再承诺，一旦自己2025年1月重返白宫，就会摧毁深层政府。共和党内的政要们纷纷为特朗普站台，其中包括2024年共和党总统候选人的潜在竞争者——他们面临的挑战也变得更加复杂。deep state: an alleged secret network of especially nonelected government officials and sometimes private entities (as in the financial services and defense industries) operating extralegally to influence and enact government policyhttps://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/deep%20state 据新华社报道，在特朗普及其支持者看来，在联邦政府内部，隐藏着一个从前几届联邦政府特别是奥巴马执政时期起任职、努力破坏特朗普政策的“阴谋者网络”，即所谓“深层政府”（deep state）。Prosecuting Mr Trump for the campaign-finance violation relies on a convoluted argument. In 2016 Michael Cohen, the president’s personal lawyer (who later went to prison himself), paid $130,000 to Ms Daniels out of his own pocket. Mr Trump allegedly reimbursed Mr Cohen with payments disguised as routine legal expenses. Falsifying business records can be a misdemeanour under New York law. The felony indictment would indicate that prosecutors are going to argue that the minor crime facilitated a more serious one: failing to declare the payment, which was made a few weeks before the election, as a de facto campaign expense.指控特朗普违反竞选资金法规的法理依据则十分牵强。2016年，特朗普的私人律师迈克尔·科恩（Michael Cohen）自掏腰包，向丹尼尔斯女士支付了13万美元（科恩后来也被判刑）。据称，特朗普打着常规律师费的名目给科恩报销。根据纽约州法律，伪造商业记录是轻罪。而本次的重罪指控意味着，检方认为这起轻罪引发了另一起性质更恶劣的罪行：未将这笔在选举前几周支付的款项申报为“实际竞选费用”。Michael Cohen：迈克尔·科恩，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普前私人律师。2018年12月12日，迈克尔·科恩在纽约被判3年监禁。2019年5月6日，他前往纽约上州的奥蒂斯维尔联邦监狱服刑。The payment probably did benefit the campaign and it was indeed undeclared. Mr Cohen, the lawyer, pleaded guilty to breaking campaign-finance law. But legal theory for prosecuting Mr Trump in Manhattan is untested. The campaign-finance rules that he may have broken are federal. The accounting rule is a state one. Linking the two in this way is unusual, and a judge may decide it is unwarranted.这笔款项或许确实有利于竞选，也确实并未申报。律师科恩承认违反了竞选财务法。但从法律理论层面上，在曼哈顿起诉特朗普站不住脚。特朗普可能违反的竞选财务法属于联邦法律，可会计准则却是州属法律。将这两条法律联系在一起相当罕见，法官可能会判定此项指控缺乏依据。The payment, which occurred six-and-a-half years ago, was scrutinised by federal prosecutors, campaign-finance regulators and one past district attorney for Manhattan—all of whom declined to press charges. But Alvin Bragg, the new progressive district attorney (da) who has earned the ire even of fellow Democrats like New York’s mayor Eric Adams, seems to have decided thatthe case against Mr Trump is stronger than they did. He is no party hack, though. Last year two lawyers who had been working in Mr Bragg’s office resigned, citing his reluctance to bring a case against the former president.这笔发生在6年半前的费用已经由联邦检察官、竞选资金监管机构以及一名前曼哈顿地区检察官审查，且他们全部拒绝提出指控。然而，新任的进步派地区检察官阿尔文•布拉格（Alvin Bragg）似乎已经认定，特朗普案件的证据认定比其他人之前所认为的更充分。布拉格并非党棍，还曾惹怒过纽约市长埃里克•亚当斯（Eric Adams）等民主党同僚。去年，布拉格麾下有两名律师辞职，理由是“他不愿指控特朗普”。1.Make a case可不是做了什么案子，意思是「给了很好的理由说服别人」。这里又加上了Strong，那这个说服理由就更强了。https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20201020A02DS0002.party hack: Someone who blindly agrees with and supports their political party simply because of their refusal to accept that they themselves may have been misled and/or are wrong on major social issues.Of the four active criminal investigations into the former president—over the stolen-election claims that preceded the January 6th attack; over his mishandling of classified documents after leaving the White House; and his attempts to encourage election fraud in the state of Georgia—the New York case is the weakest. Meanwhile,the others are grinding their way through the courts.目前，特朗普共面临四项犯罪调查。相较于其他三起案件（1月6日“国会山骚乱”前的选举舞弊言论、卸任后对机密文件处理不当、在佐治亚州教唆选举舞弊），纽约州这项指控的证据并不充足。与此同时，其他案件的进程离诉讼还有一段距离。In February a special counsel investigating the scheme to overturn the 2020 election subpoenaed Mike Pence, the former vice-president, to compel him to testify before a grand jury. On March 17th a federal judge ruled that one of Mr Trump’s lawyers was required to testify before another grand jury. On March 21st abc News reported that this was because the president may have misled his own lawyers about classified materials kept at his Florida estate of Mar-a-Lago, which the fbi recovered in an unannounced search in August 2022.2月，一名专门调查推翻2020年总统大选计划的检察官传唤前副总统迈克·彭斯（Mike Pence）要求他在大陪审团前作证。3月17日，一位联邦法官作出裁决，要求特朗普的一名律师在另一大陪审团前作证。据3月21日，美国广播公司新闻频道（ABC News）报道，传唤该名律师的理由是去年8月美国联邦调查局（FBI）突袭搜查佛罗里达海湖庄园发现的机密文件，特朗普可能误导了自己的律师。司法部特别检察官史密斯（Jack Smith）已向前副总统彭斯发出传票，要求他协助调查2020年大选期间，前总统特朗普涉嫌企图推翻选举结果的内情。http://www.stnn.cc/c/2023/0210/3793170.shtmlA third grand jury in Fulton County, Georgia, has been examining the president’s exhortation, recorded on tape, to state officials to “find 11,780 votes” and help him overturn his narrow election loss in the state. The da there promised in January that a decision on prosecution was “imminent”. Mr Trump, who became the only president to be multiply impeached, may also become the only president to have been multiply indicted.佐治亚州富尔顿县的第三个大陪审团审查了特朗普与该州官员的通话录音：当时，特朗普向他们施压，要求为自己“找到11780张选票”，并帮助他在该州选票的微弱劣势上逆风翻盘。当地检察官于1月承诺“即将”决定是否提出诉讼。作为唯一一位被多次弹劾的总统，特朗普如今也可能成为唯一一位被多次起诉的总统。In the short run, the legal drama in Manhattan will complicate the Republican plot against Mr Trump, which is well under way.Even if top donors and officials detest the former president, they cannot afford to anger his devoted base. Nearly every elected Republican of note and every candidate who is, or is thought to be, seeking the presidency has felt compelled to inveigh against Mr Bragg. Mr Pence, whom Trump supporters wanted to lynch on January 6th, came to his former boss’s defence, calling it “another politically charged prosecution”. Nikki Haley, a former Trump cabinet member who is running for president, called the prosecution “more about revenge than it is about justice”.短期来看，曼哈顿的律政大戏会使当前共和党内反对特朗普的形势更加复杂。即便“大金主们”与党内官员都讨厌这位前总统，他们也经受不起惹恼他那些拥护者的后果。几乎每一位知名共和党议员与（潜在）总统候选人都感到不得不强烈抨击布拉格。即使是在“国会山骚乱”中被特朗普拥趸者计划用私刑绞死的前副总统彭斯，也为自己的前任上司辩护道，这是“又一次充满政治色彩的起诉”。已经宣布竞选总统的前特朗普内阁成员妮基·黑利（Nikki Haley）表示，这一起诉“在更大程度上是复仇，而非出于正义。”1. 2022年1月6日当天，一些特朗普的狂热粉在冲进国会大厦试图搜找彭斯时说他们想要处死他。暴徒们在国会大厦外面立起了一个木架，上面挂有橙色绞索，这个很可能就是暴徒们为处决彭斯准备的。https://www.163.com/dy/article/FVU68AL205379OVU.html2. 因为特朗普在共和党内仍受欢迎，彭斯和一些共和党候选人出面为特朗普辩护。彭斯表示，起诉美国前总统的想法让他和数千万美国人深感不安。众议院议长麦卡锡表示，可能的起诉将是“一个激进的地方检察官滥用权力，让暴力罪犯在对特朗普进行政治报复时逍遥法外”。纽约州众议员艾莉丝也表示，地方检察官的行动将是“不符合美国的”。https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20230320A02JA900Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor who is seen as the president’s chief rival, delivered the catechism with a twist. “I don’t know what goes into paying hush money to a porn star to secure silence over some type of alleged affair. I just, I can’t speak to that,” winning some laughter in the crowd and later howls of discontent from Mr Trump’s most fervent supporters. That is one sign of the hotting-up of the cold war between the two Floridians. Mr Trump has taken lately to brainstorming nicknames that impugn the governor’s integrity (“Ron DeSanctimonious”), physicality (“Meatball Ron”) and masculinity (“Tiny D”). Congressional Republicans have already requested testimony and documents from Mr Bragg, to put his trial on trial.被视作特朗普头号竞选对手的佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯（Ron DeSantis）在回答记者的问题时，给出了一堆套话，还有点阴阳怪气。“我不知道为了掩饰所谓的外遇而给色情明星封口费是怎样的一个过程。我只是，我不能说这些。”此番言论在人群中赢得了一些笑声，但随后招致了特朗普死忠粉的强烈不满。这是两个佛罗里达州人之间冷战升温的一个迹象。最近特朗普忙着给州长起各类绰号，有从品行上抨击的外号——“罗恩·道貌岸然”（“Ron DeSanctimonious”）、体格上嘲笑的——“肉丸罗恩”（“Meatball Ron”）和男性气质上调侃的——“小弟弟”（“Tiny D”）。国会共和党人已经要求布拉格提供证词和文件，以便对他提起诉讼这件事进行调查。1.catechism n. a series of fixed questions, answers, or precepts used for instruction in other situations2.Ron DeSanctimonious: Last fall, Donald Trump began calling Ron DeSantis “Ron DeSanctimonious” because he was upset at the Florida governor for getting good press and for carrying himself in a condescending way.3.Meatball Ron: Meatballs are a sturdy, comforting, salt-of-the-earth food in Italy. It emphasizes DeSantis’ Italian American identity, which, in a Republican primary, is the good kind of identity to emphasize.The backlash may temporarily make Mr Trump’s standing with the Republican field more solid. But many primary voters, particularly the wealthier ones who make donations, are exhausted with the antics.Several of Mr Trump’s primary opponents are former courtiers who are trying diplomatically to offer a trade to his supporters: keep the policies but ditch the immorality plays. The unpredictability of criminal prosecutions may upset this delicate process. If Mr Bragg’s case against Mr Trump were to implode at the wrong moment, it could help sweep the former president to the nomination. Other prosecutors are taking their time. “If you go after the king, you better kill the king,” says Jennifer Beidel, a former federal prosecutor.这种强烈反对的情绪可能会暂时让特朗普在共和党内的地位更加稳固。但许多初选选民，特别是那些资助大选的富裕选民，对这些荒唐剧情感到厌倦。特朗普的部分初选对手是他的前下属，他们正试图体面地与他的支持者进行交易：可以搞政治但不耍无道德无底线的计谋。刑事诉讼的不可预测性可能会扰乱这一精心筹划的流程。如果布拉格在错的时间点对特朗普提起指控，可能会帮助这位前总统横扫对手，获得提名。其他检察官也在等待时机成熟。前联邦检察官詹妮弗·贝德尔（Jennifer Beidel）说：“如果你在追击国王，最好一招致命，勿失良机。”If you go after the king, you better kill the king：2020年2月16日，时任美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上引用了2月1日彼得·贝克(Peter Baker)为《纽约时报》撰写的一篇新闻分析文章，“拉尔夫·沃尔多·爱默生似乎预见到了参议院弹劾特朗普总统审判失败的教训。爱默生有句名言：当你攻击国王时，必须杀了他。（Ralph Waldo Emerson seemed to foresee the lesson of the Senate impeachment trial of President Trump. ‘When you strike at the king,’ Emerson famously said, ‘you must kill him,’ ）”特朗普在引用这句话时，把原句的“strike at a king”改成了“strike at the king”，暗指自己是国王，引发了众多愤怒。That said, it is hard to imagine all these cases rendering Mr Trump more viable in a general election. All else being equal, a criminal indictment is still unhelpful to a presidential candidate.尽管如此，很难想象所有这些案件会助力特朗普的大选。在其他条件相同的情况下，面临刑事起诉对一个总统候选人来说并无益处。Benjamin，MTI to be，初学翻译的翻译小学生Cassie，准MTI，一心想吃口译面，早日坐进小黑屋Rachel，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译
