经济学人社论 || 阿根廷经济危机

A superclassic crisis

凛冬将至（大家有更好的翻译请留言，谢谢大家）

Populists, not reformers, deserve most of the blame for Argentina’s latest fiasco

阿根廷经济近日衰败，该背锅的不该是改革家，而是民粹主义者。

Before he became president of Argentina in 2015, Mauricio Macri was president of a Buenos Aires football club, Boca Juniors. On September 1st the team faced its crosstown adversary, River Plate, in the superclásico, as contests between the sides are called. The two armies of fans at last had something to agree about. As they made their way to the stadium, Mr Macri’s government announced an emergency reimposition of currency controls. Almost everyone believes that the new policy marks the end, in effect, of his time in office. It also confirms the horrible reality that Argentina has once again become a financial outcast.

毛里西奥·马克里（Mauricio Macri）于2015年当选阿根廷总统。此前，他担任阿根廷博卡青年足球俱乐部（Boca Juniors）主席。九月一日，博卡队棋逢对手，与河床队（River Plate）同台竞技。人们称这场比赛为超级德比，两方粉丝终于就部分问题达成一致。在他们前往体育场途中，马克里政府宣布紧急恢复货币管制。实际上，几乎所有人都认为这项新政策标志着马克里总统生涯的终结。这也证实了一个可怕的现实，即阿根廷再次成为金融上的弃儿。

注：

1. 外汇管制---阿根廷总统“变脸”能否救火

https://mr.baidu.com/jvuiflj?f=cp&u=47312f623d626732

2. 新策内容

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201909/03/WS5d6dca29a310cf3e355695f5.html

3. superclásico

Superclásico is the football match in Argentina between Buenos Aires rivals Boca Juniors and River Plate. It derives from the Spanish usage of "clásico" to mean derby, with the prefix "super" used as the two clubsare the most popular and successful clubs in Argentine football. In fact, the term 'Clásico' originated in Argentina, particularly with this match up and it was later exported to other countries such as Spain and Mexico. （wikipedia）

The controls limit the amount of dollars that Argentines can buy and force exporters to repatriate their earnings. They come shortly after the government said it would delay repayments of some of its short-term debt and seek an extension of longer-term liabilities. Intended to prevent capital flight and stabilise the peso, the measures are the final humiliation for Mr Macri, a businessman who promised to revive the economy by scrapping controls and reforming a bloated public sector.

这些管控限制了阿根廷人可购买的美元数额，并强制海外出口商把在海外销售所得全部硬通货都汇回国内。不久前政府表示有意延迟偿还部分短期债务，并寻求延迟偿还长期债务的办法。很快，这些禁令便应运而生。这些措施旨在阻止资本外流，稳定阿根廷比索，但对马克里来说是一种羞辱。这位商人出身的总统曾承诺废除此类管控、改革冗赘的国营经济以求重振经济。

注：

1. 外汇储备已所剩无几！阿根廷政府无奈实施资本管控，个人每月购买美元的限额为1万美元。

https://mr.baidu.com/9w7svve?f=cp&u=4537b9488d4046be

2. 阿根廷政府实施资本管控举措，防止外汇储备耗竭

https://xw.qq.com/cmsid/20190903A005XH00?f=newdc

3. 阿根廷风暴：在坏与不那么坏之间选总统，市场崩了一次又一次

https://mr.baidu.com/86lwjd7?f=cp&u=9d4046f668c1297b

Foreign investors bought into his liberalising vision after the 2015 election, with Wall Street chiefs such as Jamie Dimon, boss of JPMorgan Chase, proclaiming that Argentina had come in from the cold. And when the financial markets became choppier, in 2018, the IMF backed him with $57bn, its largest-ever loan. A year on, the position could hardly be worse. Inflation is over 50%. The peso has dropped by 30% in the past 12 months, and the countryncial markets became choppier, in 2018, the  the oppier,

2015年大选后，国外投资者在马克里“自由化”远景的吸引下蜂拥而至，包括杰米.戴蒙（摩根大通老板）在内的众多华尔街高管均属此列。戴蒙声称阿根廷经济已回春。2018年金融市场波动更甚之际，国际货币基金组织（IMF）向马克里先生借出570亿美元作为支持，这也是IMF目前最大的一笔放贷。现如今阿根廷经济形势跌至谷底。通货膨胀率超过50%。过去一年比索贬值30%，政府债券交易价格还不到票面实际价值的一半。

注：

1. 选举结束后，阿根廷债券市场、股市及阿根廷比索出现连锁反应式大跌，现“债股券三杀”。贷违约掉期大幅上涨，因为交易员认为阿根廷将在未来五年暂停偿还债务的可能性为75%。政府债券平均下跌25%，部分跌至55美分/1美元面值 ，吉宾斯投资的阿根廷的100年期债券创下历史新低。

2. come in from the cold: ①Literally, to enter a place in order to warm one's body (because it is cold outside).② To be accepted after previous rejection. （来自于the Free Dictionary）

Plenty of Argentines and some outsiders may conclude that Mr Macri’s agenda to liberalise the economy, and the imf’s support, were misplaced. In fact much of the blame for Mr Macri’s failure lies with his populist predecessor, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who is running again in the upcoming elections as a vice-presidential candidate. Ms Fernández left behind a gaping budget deficit, artificially low utility prices, statistics that were brazenly manipulated and ruinously high public spending. After years of such mismanagement it has become ever harder to persuade Argentines that prices and the currency will be stable. Their mistrust of their economic institutions is sadly self-vindicating. It makes investors unusually skittish. Who would trust a country with so little faith in itself?

众多阿根廷人和一些局外人也许就此得出结论：马克里总统基于自由化经济的策略和国际货币基金组织借债是步错棋。实际上，马克里现在的失败主要归结于其民粹主义前任克莉丝汀娜·费尔南德兹·德基什内尔（Cristina Fernández de Kirchner），而她现在正在以副总统候选人身份再次竞选。费尔南德兹留下了巨壑难填的预算赤字、人为降低的公用事业费、无耻纂改的统计数据以及高到令人乍舌的政府支出。经过多年的管理不善，阿根廷民众已经很难相信价格和汇率会保持稳定。阿根廷人不信任本国经济体系，这是自我应验的，多可悲啊。这种不信任环境下，投资者们像惊弓之鸟。试问谁又会信任一个连本国民众都不抱有信心的国家呢？

注：

克莉丝汀娜·费尔南德兹·德基什内尔再选总统宝位

https://news.sina.com.cn/o/2019-08-13/doc-ihytcitm8940185.shtml

Mr Macri and the IMF made mistakes (see article). To avoid a public backlash Mr Macri decided to narrow the budget deficit gradually, testing the bond marketarkettetit gradually, testinelectorateo . In hindsight he should have balanced the books sooner. Perhaps the IMF should have made a smaller loan (coupled, presumably, with an earlier debt restructuring). But it hoped that a large bail-out would restore investor confidence, allowing Argentina to recover without spending all the money the fund had promised.

马克里先生和IMF（国际货币基金组织）错误连连（见文章）。为了避免引起公众强烈反对，马克里先生决定逐步缩小预算赤字，考验债券市场的忍耐力而非考验选民的耐心。而事后看来，他本该早点平衡财政预算。也许IMF本该提供一笔较小额度的贷款（同时提前进行债务重组）。但IMF希望一笔巨额纾困资金可以重建投资者的信心，以此阿根廷能恢复经济，而无需把原承诺数额贷款消耗殆尽。

On top of the tactical errors by the government, what finally broke investors that a large bail-ouspectre of populists returning to power. Alberto Fernpopul and his controversial running-mate, Ms Fernnrns  (they are not related and he is more moderate than she), triumphed in a primary vote on August 11th and are almost certain to win Octoberstore investor confidencfear of what the opposition would do led to panic and capital flight, and led the government to do some of those things itself, including delaying debt repayments and imposing currency controls.

除却政府的策略性失误，给投资者信心最终一击的是民粹主义幽灵再度掌权。阿尔贝托·费尔南德兹先生和他那饱受争议的竞选伙伴费尔南德兹女士（他们两人非亲属，且他比她更温和）在8月11日中的初选中得力，并极有可能在10月的选举中获胜。投资者担心反对派会采取什么行动，从而导致市场恐慌和资本外逃。政府也因此自己采取了其中一些措施，包括推迟偿债和实施货币管制。

注:

阿根廷总统初选结果出炉：现任总统马克里意外惨败--国际--人民网

http://world.people.com.cn/GB/n1/2019/0813/c1002-31291399.html

Although Mr Fernández has drained Mr Macri of power, he has been reluctant to act as Argentina’s next leader himself. He has instead struck vague and contradictory positions. If he wins, Mr Fernández will not be formally inaugurated until December. Until then Argentina will face a damaging political vacuum. The outgoing government is introducing measures, including price freezes and handouts, to try to protect the population from the shock rippling through the economy. But the situation is still dire, and the new man will still face the long-term problem that defeated Mr Macri: how to bring Argentina’s economy back in line with market realities. A large part of the electorate and the probable next president seem keen to dodge that question. Until it is confronted, decline and crisis will beckon.

尽管费尔南德斯先生已经提前击败马克里，他却不愿以阿根廷下届领导人自居。费尔南德兹立场模棱两可，且多处自相矛盾。若当选，费尔南德兹先生本年度12月才能正式就职。可在此之前，阿根廷将面临一段灾难性的政治真空期。即将离任的时任政府在不断推行诸如价格冻结和政府救济等措施，力图保障国民，免受经济冲击影响。但是形势依然严峻，令马克里折戟的阿根廷经济顽疾将由下一届领导人接棒：阿根廷经济如何才能回归至市场真实水平？绝大多数选民以及可能的下一任总统总是在回避。直到他们直面此问，经济衰退和经济危机将会相携示意。