“议”言难尽 | 经济学人社论

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Leaders | Unspeakable

社论|“议”言难尽

英文部分选自经济学人20220107期社论版块

Leaders | Unspeakable

社论|“议”言难尽

What the Kevin McCarthy saga means for America’s Congress

凯文·麦卡锡竞选一波三折，美国国会前途未卜

Power struggles, public humiliation and a government shutdown may follow

权力斗争、公开羞辱、政府停摆或将随之而来

With the anguish of someone who has spent a decade pursuing a prize, only to see it slipping away from his grasp, Kevin McCarthy told his colleagues in the House Republican caucus, “I’ve earned this job.” And, in a way, he had. The Republican from Bakersfield has kissed an army of frogs, including lobbyists, donors and cranks like congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, to shore up his position, only for 20 House Republicans to turn around and accuse him of infidelity. This tale has its comic side: at one point Matt Gaetz, one of the “Never Kevin” Republican members, wrote to the Architect of the Capitol complaining that some guy called Kevin had moved his desk into the Speaker’s office and that it should be removed forthwith. But the McCarthy saga—the kind of power tussle and public humiliation that Washington loves—also augurs ill for the progress of important legislation in the 118th Congress.

花了十年追逐一个职位，却眼睁睁看着它正从手中溜走，凯文·麦卡锡（Kevin McCarthy）痛苦万分，对众议院共和党核心小组的成员们说：“这份工作是我应得的！”某种程度上说也的确如此。为了巩固自己的地位，这位来自贝克斯菲尔德市的共和党人曲意逢迎了一大批人，包括游说者、捐赠者和以国会议员马乔里·泰勒·格林（Marjorie Taylor Greene）为代表的怪人，换来的却是20名众议院共和党人反水指责他不忠。这个故事也有其滑稽的一面：马特·盖兹（Matt Gaetz）是“绝不支持凯文”的共和党成员之一，曾写信给国会大厦建筑师事务所，投诉一个叫凯文的家伙把自己的办公桌搬进了议长办公室，并呼吁立即将其搬离。但麦卡锡的竞选一波三折，伴随美国政坛乐见的权力斗争和公开羞辱，这也标志着第118届国会重要议程出师不利。

Choosing the Speaker of America’s House of Representatives, an important office whose holder is second in line for the presidency, ordinarily requires only one round of voting. The last exception to this was a century ago, when progressive Republicans held up their party’s candidate. With no Speaker, no legislation can progress and no new members can be sworn in. This leaves the people temporarily without representation. The move is therefore a drastic one for the Never Kevins to make. So why did they do it?

美国众议院议长一职至关重要，议长是总统的第二顺位继承人，其选举通常只需要一轮投票。上一次例外还要追溯到一个世纪前，当时进步派共和党人阻拦本党候选人当选议长。没有议长，任何议程都无法推进，新议员无法宣誓就职，人民也暂时失去了代表。因此，不投麦卡锡的票，对于那些“绝不支持凯文”的共和党人来说是一次激进之举。他们为什么要这么做呢？

Not, surely, in opposition to Mr McCarthy’s proposed agenda. Released before the midterm elections in November 2022, his “Commitment to America” would struggle to fill a postcard with policies that are within the power of Congress to enact. Nor do the Never Kevins have much of an agenda themselves. Instead, the plan seems to have been to break the toys so that nobody else can play with them. That dynamic has been present in the Republican caucus for a while. John Boehner, who was besieged by the “Hell No” caucus of House Republicans when he was Speaker from 2011 to 2015, observed: “What they’re really interested in is chaos…Every time they vote down a bill, they get another invitation to go on Fox News or talk radio. It’s a narcissistic—and dangerous—feedback loop.” And it is getting worse.

显然，他们反对的并非麦卡锡提出的议题。去年11月中期选举前夕，麦卡锡发布了《对美国的承诺》议程，而其中能由国会颁布的政策，甚至填不满一张明信片。不过，宣称“绝不支持麦卡锡“的共和党人也提不出像样的议程。他们似乎一贯只是搅局，目的是让谁都“玩不下去”。其实，这种风气早已在共和党内盛行。约翰·博纳（John Boehner）担任议长期间（2011-2015年）就曾遭到众议院共和党“绝不”核心小组的围攻。博纳表示：“这帮人只想扰乱局面。每阻挠一项法案通过，就能获邀做客福克斯新闻台或访谈电台。这是满足搅局者自恋特质的恶性循环。”而现在，情势正愈演愈烈。

While this was going on, Democrats lined up in an orderly fashion behind Hakeem Jeffries, a moderate Democrat from New York. After his elevation to Minority Leader-elect, Mr Jeffries said po-faced things about the chaos on the other side being a sad day for democracy, while his colleagues tittered at the McCarthy spectacle. If they were less concerned with extracting partisan advantage, Democrats might settle on some sensible Republican to back as Majority Leader and hope that a few Republicans could support the same candidate. There is no constitutional reason why the moderates in both parties could not club together, seize control of the legislative agenda and tell the extreme wings of their parties to lump it. Alas, party discipline, tribal loyalty and the threat of primary challengers combine to make this impossible. Instead, Republicans will struggle on until they have a Speaker.

这边厢共和党人内讧不休，那边厢民主党人却一致支持来自纽约的温和派民主党人哈基姆·杰弗里斯（Hakeem Jeffries）。他在当选少数党候任领袖后一脸严肃地表示，此次共和党的党内乱局可谓美国民主之殇，而其党内同仁却对“麦卡锡闹剧”窃笑不已。若民主党人不那么计较党派优势，或许会考虑把票投给某位明智的共和党人使其成为多数党领袖，并期望该人选获得部分共和党人的支持。宪法之下，两党的温和派完全可以联手，共同掌控立法议程，并让各自党内的极端派勉强接受。可惜，党派纪律、朋党忠诚、以及其他初选候选人带来的威胁，都令跨党联手无从实现。如此一来，共和党人便只能继续“难产”，直至选出议长。

A weakened Speaker will make it even harder for Congress to pass contentious legislation this year. One beholden to the House Republicans’ berserker caucus could find it difficult to avoid a government shutdown, to raise the debt ceiling or to provide additional support to Ukraine’s armed forces. This comes after Congress had been on a winning streak, reforming the process for certifying elections and reaffirming gay marriage as the law of the land in 2022. Even divided Congresses can sometimes accomplish quite a lot. But this one is setting out with lead weights attached to its boots. 

一位弱势议长当选将使这届国会更难通过争议性法案。如若议长受制于众议院共和党强硬派，众议院要想避免政府停摆、提高债务上限、为乌克兰提供额外的军事援助，都将困难重重。而此前，国会可谓一路高歌，2022年不仅改革了总统选举结果认证程序，还巩固了同性婚姻的联邦法律保障。即便是内部分裂的国会也能大有作为。不过，本届国会才刚启程，就已负荷累累。

Gretle，爱翻译，爱生活

Mai，男，经济学博士，世界那么大，我想活得久一点

Iris，博物馆小可爱

Sean，男大学生，相信奶茶在手翻译无忧

Lora，一只庸俗的骡，一只脱离了高级趣味的骡

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