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Leaders | The Trump effect

特朗普效应

After the midterms, America and its democracy look stronger

中期选举后的美国与美式民主均得到巩固

On top of his other flaws, the former president is a serial vote loser

除了周身毛病，前总统特朗普还老是失掉选票

Shortly before the midterm elections, Donald Trump held a rally in Ohio. “Our country is becoming third-world,” he told voters. Later he hinted—is threatened a better word?—that he would soon announce he was running for president again. What could possibly go wrong for a party with such a figurehead? Or for one whose primary voters are so keen to relitigate the 2020 election that they chose a slate of candidates in key Senate seats chiefly for being the true keepers of the Trump flame?

就在中期选举前不久，美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）在俄亥俄州举行了一场助选集会，他告诉台下选民： “美国就要变成第三世界国家了”。随后，他暗示（或许“扬言”更符合实情）将在不久后正式宣布再次竞选总统。若他参选，这位事实党魁又将给共和党带来哪些困局呢？毕竟，该党的多数选民不惜将关键的参议员席位交给所谓的特朗普信徒，只为对2020年的美国大选结果再次提起起诉。

Quite a lot, it turns out. The most important result of the 2022 midterms, for America and for the West, is that Mr Trump and his way of doing politics came out of them diminished.

事实证明，共和党遭遇的困局还真不少。于美国和整个西方世界而言，2022中期选举带来的最重要影响便是削弱了特朗普参政议政的能力。

There are no blowout wins in American politics any more. When a party claims that America is theirs, based on how a few thousand votes break in a country of 330m, it is wise to raise an eyebrow and avoid overinterpreting the result. The president’s party nearly always loses seats in the midterms: there have been only three exceptions to this pattern since the civil war ended in 1865. Voters seem to like divided government, which has been the norm in Washington since the 1970s. They punish any party that holds majorities in both chambers of Congress and the presidency, as Barack Obama found in 2010, Mr Trump found in 2018 and therefore Joe Biden’s team must have expected this year. Neither party is currently capable of holding on to a commanding majority of the kind that once allowed them to pursue grand legislative programmes in Washington.

如今，想在美国政治选举中大获全胜已是难事。美国人口已达3.3亿，若看到某个政党仅凭数千选票的微弱优势就扬言胜券在握，应持讶异态度，理性看待结果。通常来说，执政党在中期选举时总要失掉一些席位，自1865年美国内战结束以来便一直如此，仅有过三次例外。此外，自1970年以来，两党分治是美国政治的常态，而这似乎正如选民所愿。如果一个政党同时拿下了总统以及参众两院，选民们就会开始倒向另一个党派，巴拉克·奥巴马（Barack Obama)和特朗普分别在2010、2018的中期选举中遇到此类情况。因此，现任总统乔·拜登（Joe Biden）及其团队应当早已预计到了这一点。目前，两党都无法占据压倒性优势，也就没法像之前一样通过占据绝对多数来推动国会通过大规模法案。

On the Democratic side there are many explanations for this. It is hard to boast about increased federal spending when many voters suspect that Democrats had a hand in raising inflation above 8%. The Democratic Party seems perennially befuddled about what exactly to propose on crime or immigration. Because they are fixated on the weirdness and the threats to democracy posed by many Republicans, Democrats tend to overlook how strange voters think they are. A poll commissioned by Third Way, a centrist Democratic think-tank, shortly before the election found that voters question whether the party’s candidates share basic American attitudes towards patriotism and hard work. When asked which party is more extreme, the average voter replies that Democrats are.

从民主党角度来看，这其中的原因有很多。当众多选民怀疑民主党人和飙升至8%的通胀脱不了干系时，民主党很难再吹嘘联邦政府增加了开支。在犯罪和移民问题上到底应该有何提议，民主党似乎一直稀里糊涂。民主党人的关注点偏了，他们把重心放在一众共和党人对民主制度构成的威胁上，所以选民们认为民主党人行为怪异，而他们往往没有注意到这一点。此次大选前不久，民主党中间派智库“第三条路”（Third Way）委托进行了一项民意调查，据调查结果显示，选民质疑该党候选人对爱国主义和辛勤工作的基本态度是否与美国民众高度统一。当被问及哪个党派更极端时，选民们的普遍回答是民主党。

That ought to have been a gift to Republicans in a midterm year. Yet the party doesn’t have any better ideas on how to tackle America’s problems, and has quite a few for making them worse. Elected Republicans let the country down by trying to wriggle out of rejecting Mr Trump’s claims about the 2020 election. By doing so they also robbed their party of a chance to rethink and rebuild itself after its defeat, which is what parties normally do. Mr Trump is still nominally the chief Republican. He has an iron grip on the party’s berserker faction. Yet after this week’s vote, he looks more vulnerable than at any time since January 6th 2021, when many Americans thought this time he had gone too far.

值此中期选举年，上述情形对于共和党来说本应是天赐良机。然而，共和党也没有更好的法子来解决美国面临的问题，倒是有不少馊主意让局势进一步恶化。当选的共和党人本应斥责特朗普关于2020大选（舞弊）的言论，但他们没有这么做，这令美国人感到失望。通常，某个政党在大选失败后会反思并重整旗鼓，而共和党的行为让其机会尽失。特朗普仍然是共和党名义上的第一人。他牢牢控制着党内的极端派系。本周选举尘埃落定之后，特朗普的地位将更加岌岌可危，比2021年1月6日那次事件的负面影响更甚，当时美国人民觉得他在冲击国会山一事中的所作所为太过线了。

注释：2021年1月6日指美国国会暴乱事件。

That presents an opportunity. Mr Trump can profit from breaking things. Many voters want a fighter, and refusing to concede and inciting a riot is proof of pugilism. After this week’s vote the suspicion that Mr Trump is, in fact, just a loser will be much harder for him to overcome. And that is what his record points to. In 2020 he was the first incumbent since Jimmy Carter to follow a president from the other party and then lose. In 2018 the Republicans lost 41 seats in the House under the Trump banner (Democrats may have lost only a handful this week). Even at his moment of greatest triumph, in 2016, he lost the popular vote and only narrowly beat a candidate who was trying to follow a two-term president from her own party, something which rarely happens. Now 2022 can be added to this less-than-stellar streak.

机会来了。诚然，特朗普可以从混乱中获利——许多选民想要一个斗士，而拒绝让步和煽动暴乱是拳击手才会做的事。本周投票之后，人们不禁会怀疑特朗普实际上只是一个失败者，这样的帽子将难以摘除。这也完全符合他的历史战绩。2020年大选落败，特朗普成为自吉米•卡特（Jimmy Carter）以后首位从对手党里接任，但却未连任的总统。2018年，在特朗普麾下，共和党在众议院失去了41个席位（而民主党本周可能只失去了少量席位）。2016年，特朗普收获了自己（政治生涯）的最大胜利，然而他没能赢得普选票，面对已经执政两届的民主党推出的候选人希拉里，他的优势非常微弱，这并不常见。现在，在他不太成功的选举记录上，2022年的中期选举又添了浓墨重彩的一笔。

His handpicked candidates turned winnable Senate races into nail-biters in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile in Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis, a probable rival, won by roughly 20 points. Two Republican candidates for governor closely associated with Trumpism—Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania and Tim Michels in Wisconsin—both repeated the lost-cause story about 2020 and vowed to use their influence over election administration to make sure no Republican presidential candidate would lose again in their state. It was they who lost. In Michigan and Nevada Republican candidates who swore the 2020 election was stolen ran for secretary of state so that they might oversee the next one. They lost, too. In Colorado Lauren Boebert, who has flirted with the QAnon conspiracy, may lose the safest of seats.

共和党本可在亚利桑那州、乔治亚州、内华达州和宾夕法尼亚州的参议院席位之争中获胜，而特朗普精心挑选的候选人让情况变得十分棘手。与此同时，特朗普的潜在党内竞争对手——佛罗里达州州长罗恩 · 德桑蒂斯（Ron DeSantis）赢了大约20个百分点。高度拥护特朗普主义的两名共和党州长候选人——宾夕法尼亚州的道格 · 马斯特里亚诺（Doug Mastriano）和威斯康星州的蒂姆 · 米歇尔斯（Tim Michels）——都重蹈了2020年的覆辙，他们曾誓言要利用自己对选举管理的影响力，确保不会再有共和党总统候选人在红州败北。他们没有做到。在密歇根州和内华达州，宣称2020年大选果实遭窃取的共和党候选人竞选了州务卿之位，以便监督下一届大选，皆败下阵来。在科罗拉多州，曾与阴谋论组织QAnon 眉来眼去的劳伦•博伯特（Lauren Boebert）可能会丢掉无法撼动的席位。

It turns out that common sense can still sometimes beat partisan reflexes after all. At the margin voters distinguish between good and bad candidates, which matters when the margins are thin. American democracy seems healthier and more secure as a result.

事实证明，有时常识可以战胜党派的反应。中间选民会区分候选人的好坏，这在票数差额较小时很重要。美国的民主似乎因此更健康，更安全。

Where does this leave the country? Alas, for the next two years Congress is likely to become mired in theatrical showdowns over funding the government and pointless investigations into the business dealings of Hunter Biden, the president’s son. America’s real problems will go unanswered.

美国未来将何去何从？唉，接下来的两年，对于政府经费和总统之子亨特·拜登商业交易这种无意义的调查问题上，国会很可能会陷入戏剧性的摊牌对峙。美国真正的问题将无法得以解决。

注释：showdown：a big meeting, argument, or fight that finally settles a disagreement between people or proves who is the best.

Given that sterile prospect, it is in America’s and the Republican Party’s interest to move on from Mr Trump and look forward. But perhaps surprisingly, given that he has just presided over a creditable midterm performance, there are also doubts whether Mr Biden should be the Democratic nominee in 2024. His administration has, like any presidency, got plenty of things wrong. But by arming Ukraine and putting policies in place to drastically reduce carbon emissions, it has got two important things right. Now, also for the good of party and country, Mr Biden might rethink what he does next.

鉴于这种无望的前景，摆脱特朗普，向前看符合共和党以及整个美国的利益。但或许让人惊讶的是，尽管在拜登的领导下，此次民主党的中期选举表现值得称赞，但人们依旧在质疑拜登是否应代表民主党谋求连任。拜登同任何一位总统一样，在任期间做了很多错事，但他还是做对了两件事：武装支援乌克兰和推行大幅减少碳排放政策。现在，同样出于民主党和国家的利益，拜登或将重新考虑接下来该何去何从。

Walking away from power is a noble American tradition that is almost as old as the republic. By following it, Mr Biden could deny Mr Trump the 2020 rematch he so clearly craves. Republicans in Congress might be a bit less obsessed with blocking anything that could look like a presidential win. And Democrats might make rebuilding democracy more than a self-serving talking point. With his achievements and his party’s relative success in these elections Mr Biden has an opportunity to depart on his own terms. He should use it.

主动让权是深植于美国传统的一项美德，从合众国建国之初一直传承至今。如果拜登主动放弃连任，那么特朗普朝思暮想的2020对决重演也会就此落空。长期以来，共和党认为支持民主党的提案都是为拜登总统做政绩，而另一边高喊“民主”的空口号也多是给自己拉票。一旦意识到拜登将不再寻求连任，逢“拜”必反的共和党人势必会有所收敛，而民主党人则可以开始真正重建民主制度。带着自己的政绩，以及自己政党此次的战绩，拜登完全可以选择以自己的方式主动离场——而且，他理应如此。

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