经济调节的无力感--向老天爷低头 | 经济学人财经

2022-12-01 05:12

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Return of the rainmaker

雨师回归

英文部分选自经济学人20221119财经版块

Free exchange

自由交流

Return of the rainmaker

雨师回归

Weather is again determining economic outcomes. Soon it will be even more important

经济结果，七分天注定

“Now the rains had really come,” writes Chinua Achebe, in “Things Fall Apart ”, a novel set in 19th-century Nigeria, “so heavy and persistent that even the village rainmaker no longer claimed to be able to intervene. He could not stop the rain now, just as he would not attempt to start it in the heart of the dry season, without serious danger to his own health.” In agrarian economies, of the sort depicted in Achebe’s novel, the economic cycle and weather move in tandem. When the rains arrive at the right time, the harvest is bountiful and prosperity follows. In contrast, drought brings the risk of starvation and death. The rainmaker—much like the modern-day central banker—may attempt to smooth out the business cycle, literally dampening things down when they get too hot. Ultimately, though, it is the power of nature that decides the outcome.

“雨真的来了”，钦努阿·阿契贝（Chinua Achebe）在以19世纪尼日利亚为背景的小说《瓦解》中写道，“可如今暴雨如注，连村里的雨师都无法让它停歇。就像在最干旱的季节里，他没法在不损伤自身的情况下召唤来雨水一样。”在类似钦努阿小说描述的那些农业经济中，经济周期和天气状况同步。雨水恰如时分到来，随之而来的就是丰收和繁荣。相反，干旱会来带饥饿和死亡。雨师——很像今天的央行——可能会试图调控商业周期，当发展太火热时就来泼一盆冷雨。即使这样，但最终决定结果的是大自然的力量。

Europe’s energy crisis has brought the return of weather-based economics. The crisis is a reminder that, for all their technological sophistication, even rich-world economies must rely on the munificence of nature. European economists, financiers and policymakers are watching forecasts closely: a balmy winter will bring relief, requiring less gas to be burned in order to keep houses warm. If temperatures are not too punishing, energy prices will fall and growth be given a boost. A frosty winter, on the other hand, will bring misery: pushing millions into poverty, increasing inflationary pressures and keeping industries shuttered.

欧洲的能源危机让天气经济学重新走上了舞台。这场危机提醒我们，即使是拥有先进技术的富裕世界经济体，也必须依赖大自然的恩赐。欧洲的经济学家、金融专家和政策制定者正密切关注天气情况：暖冬将缓解现状，减少天然气需求来供暖。如果气温不太刺骨，能源价格会下降，推动经济增长。另一方面，凛冽寒冬将带来痛苦：数百万人陷入贫困，通货膨胀压力增加，工厂关门停工。

Fossil fuels originally promised to free economies from the vagaries of the seasons. Instead of relying on ambient solar power—captured in grain, preserved in livestock or photosynthesised into biomass and then consumed as firewood—humanity could burn coal, releasing the prehistoric solar power contained within. The use of fossil fuels allowed energy to be stored, transported and released exactly when required. They placed the power of the sun at the beck and call of mankind, rather than the other way around.

起初化石燃料给经济摆脱变化无常的季节干扰带来希望。相较于依赖周遭的太阳能——贮留在谷物中，保存在家畜体内或通过光合作用转化为有机燃料供人们烧柴——人们可以燃烧煤炭，释放其中所包含的史前太阳能。化石燃料的使用让人们得以按需存储、运输以及使用能源。长久以来靠天吃饭的人类终于扼住了太阳的咽喉。

Ann Kussmaul, an economic historian, tracked the spread of the Industrial Revolution through England by assessing when regions moved beyond seasonal economics. Parish marriage certificates measured the point at which fossil fuels freed workers from the rhythms of nature and instead tied them to the factory whistle. Before industrialisation, marriages in low-lying areas would often be in winter after the harvest was taken; in hilly areas, they would be during summer, once the lambing season had come to an end. After industrialisation, such regional and seasonal marriage patterns disappeared, providing a clue as to which parts of England first adopted fossil-fuel-based production techniques.

经济史学家安•库斯莫尔（Ann Kussmaul）通过评估地区经济何时已经不再呈现出季节性规律来追踪工业革命在英国的传播。教区内夫妻领证的趋势衡量了何时化石燃料将工人从自然的节奏中解放出来进而听命于工厂开工哨声。在工业化之前，低洼地区的人们通常会选择在秋收之后的冬天举行婚礼。而在丘陵地区，他们通常会选择在产羔期结束的夏季。工业化之后，这种区域性和季节性的婚期模式消失了，这为研究英格兰哪些地区最先采用基于化石燃料的生产技术提供了线索。

注释：

Kussmaul, Ann,Servants in Husbandry in Early Modern England ( Cambridge at the University Press, 1981)

Hundred of years later, seasonality is returning to Britain and other parts of Europe, as the continent weans itself from Russian gas. Part of the reason for this return is physical. Natural gas is much harder to transport and store than coal or liquid oil. In the past, Europe benefited from abundant piped gas provided by Russia, as well as the option of top-ups of liquefied natural gas shipped from abroad. Now supplies are tight and Europeans must mostly rely on the shipped stuff. The continent’s storage facilities are already more than 90% full, and filling the last bits of available space is expensive, since the contents must be kept under high pressure. Constrained supply means that changes in demand determine the price of energy—and the weather is the most uncertain determinant of demand.

几百年后，随着欧洲大陆自己切断了俄罗斯天然气的供应，英国和欧洲其他地区的季节性正在回归。这种回归的部分原因是由（天然气的）物理性质决定的。天然气比煤或者液态石油更难运输和储存。过去，欧洲得益于俄罗斯提供的大量管道天然气，同时有其他国家运来的液化天然气作为补充。而如今天然气供应紧张，欧洲只能主要依靠其他国家的运输。欧洲大陆的天然气储存设施已经达到九成满的状态了，想要做到全满代价很大，因为这需要进一步对天然气加高压。供给受限意味着需求的变化决定了能源的价格，而天气是决定需求的最大不确定性因素。

注释：

wean：vt. 使断奶；使断念；使放弃

Autumn spared Europe the worst: the continent enjoyed the hottest October on record. As a result, the price for a unit of gas on the Dutch title transfer facility, which provides the benchmark for the continent, fell to around €100 per megawatt hour, half the rate in September. But now winter is starting to make itself felt. Germany’s first snows have arrived. Historically there has been a relatively linear relationship between gas demand and the temperature: the colder it gets, the more gas is needed. This year things are a little more complicated. Home-heating systems have been left dormant for longer than usual. Blanket sales are on the rise. People are willing to wrap up warm to resist Vladimir Putin.

这个秋天让欧洲躲过一劫：欧洲大陆“享受”了有史以来最热的十月。因此，当月欧洲大陆基准指标荷兰天然气交易中心天然气价格已降至接近100欧元/兆瓦时，环比下降了一半。但是现在冬天真的来了，德国的初雪已经降临。从历史数据上看，天然气需求与温度之间存在相对线性的关系：温度越低，需要的天然气就越多。今年情况有点复杂。家庭供暖系统处于休眠状态的时间比平时更长。而毛毯的销量正在上升。人们更愿意穿得暖和一点来共克时艰。

注释：

1. spared the worst 避免了最坏的情况

2. Dutchtitle transfer facility：荷兰天然气交易中心（简称TTF，又称荷兰所有权转让设施）是一个天然气虚拟交易点，一些荷兰的交易者在该交易点交易期货和实物（现货），其主要指数用于欧洲的长期合同。

The gas crisis is not the only reason for a greater focus on the weather. Renewables now supply much more energy to Europe than even a few years ago, leading to problems if the wind does not blow or the sun does not shine. Indeed, hydropower has also been an issue for Europe this year, after a hot summer dried out the reservoirs and rivers on which dams depend. Improving and investing in ways to store electricity, whether batteries, hydrogen or other techniques, could in future smooth out such variability. The continent nonetheless faces years, or even decades, of nervously watching the skies as it adjusts.

天然气危机并不是唯一让气候更值得被关注的理由。即便是相较于几年前，可再生能源给欧洲提供的能源已经多了很多，这也意味着如果风力减弱或者日照减少，都会出现问题。实际上，今年欧洲的水力发电同样存在问题，酷暑使大坝（发电）所依赖的水库和河流干涸。改善并且投资储存电力的方式，不论是电池，氢气或者其他技术，都可以在未来消除这些变数。尽管如此，这个调整的过程中将会持续数年甚至数十年，在此期间他们还是只能紧张地等着老天爷赏饭吃。

注释：

smooth out：消除，使平滑，解决

Baker was smoothing out differences with European allies.

贝克尔正在解决与欧洲盟友的分歧。

Yet in the absence of a transition to green forms of energy the weather would begin to play an even bigger role in economics. A warmer planet is already leading to more frequent and extreme events, such as Europe’s summer heatwaves or the devastating floods endured by Pakistan. These events amount to so-called real shocks to an economy: external changes that lower productive capacity, and so cause both higher inflation and unemployment.

然而，缺乏一条走向绿色能源的道路就意味着经济还得不停地看老天的眼色。全球变暖已经开始导致更频繁和更极端的事件，比如欧洲的夏季热浪和巴基斯坦遭受的毁灭性洪灾。这些事件合力对经济造成了所谓的实际冲击：外部变化降低了生产力，从而导致通货膨胀和失业。

注释：

in the absence of: 在没有… 时;无，缺乏，

Thecase was dismissed in the absence of any definite proof.

此案因缺乏确凿证据而不予受理。

Head in the clouds

扑朔迷离

This dual threat is harder for central bankers to deal with than downturns that arise from changes in business confidence or a financial crisis. Tighten policy too much in response and it will exacerbate the downturn; too little and inflation may get out of hand. According to analysis by the imf of Pacific and Caribbean islands, natural-disaster-prone countries grow by around one percentage point less a year and have considerably higher debt stocks than those less at risk. Climate change will only exacerbate these differences. Thus a return to weather-dependent economics will leave some central bankers looking even more like rainmakers: attempting to perform the old rituals or demanding more sacrifices, without much capacity to affect the economic weather.

与商业信心变化或者经济危机引起的衰退相比，中央银行处理这种双重危机会更加艰难。过于的紧缩政策可能会加剧衰退，紧缩的不够则可能导致通胀失控。根据国际货币基金组织对太平洋和加勒比岛屿的分析，容易遭受自然灾害的国家年经济增长率要比风险较小的国家低大约一个百分点，且债务总额会高很多。气候变化会进一步拉开双方差距。因此，变回成一个依赖气候的经济体会让一些央行看起来更像一个雨师：试图布置一些旧的仪式或者要求更多的牺牲，但是对经济天气几乎没啥影响。

翻译组：

Ellie，女，金融硕士，经济学人粉丝

Humi，女，学习财经的金融小白，不负韶华，平视世界

Ashely，女，金融硕士，爱宠物爱英语，爱旅游，经济学人粉丝

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Diamond，男，血汗工厂搬砖工，经济学人粉丝

Hannah，女, 爱读财经的金融小白经济学人唯粉

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