2022年经济盘点:至暗一年中，哪些国家赢麻了？ | 经济学人财经

英文部分选自经济学人20221210财经版块

Top of the charts

独占鳌头

Time for a party

群雄逐鹿

Which countries were 2022’s economic winners?

2022年的经济赢家是哪些国家？

In financial terms the past year has been bad for almost everyone. Inflation of 10% year-on-year across the rich world has slashed household incomes. Investors have lost out as global stockmarkets have plunged by 20%. Yet this poor aggregate performance hides wide differences: some countries have done pretty well.

就经济情况而言，过去一年几乎对所有国家来说都是不利的。富裕国家10%的同比通货膨胀率削减了家庭收入。随着全球股市暴跌20%，投资者蒙受损失。然而，“大环境”整体上的糟糕表现掩盖了巨大差异：一些国家做得相当好。

To assess these differences, The Economist has compiled data on five economic and financial indicators— gdp, inflation, inflation breadth, stockmarket performance and government debt—for 34 mostly rich countries. We have ranked each economy according to how well it has done on these measures, and created an overall score. The table overleaf shows the rankings. It includes some unexpected results.

为了评估这些差异，《经济学人》汇编了34个主要富裕国家的五项经济和金融指标——国内生产总值（GDP）、通货膨胀、实际通胀波及度、股市表现及政府债务。我们根据每个经济体在这些指标上的表现对其排名，并得出总分。排名附于次页表格中，呈现了一些意想不到的结果。

注释：

Overleaf: on the other side of a leaf 在次页；在背面

Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/overleaf

For the first time in a while, the economic party is happening in the Mediterranean. Top of our list is Greece. Other countries that plumbed the economic depths in the early 2010s, including Portugal and Spain, also score highly. They are not the only pleasant surprises. Despite political chaos, Israel did well. Meanwhile, despite political stability, Germany is an underperformer. Two Baltic countries, Estonia and Latvia, which won plaudits in the 2010s for speedy reforms, come bottom.

地中海地区罕见地成为了经济繁荣之地。希腊高居经济榜首，葡萄牙和西班牙等在2010年代初经济不振的国家也名列前茅。爆冷门的远不止于这些国家。尽管政局混乱，但以色列表现突出。与此同时，政局稳定的德国却表现不佳。两个波罗的海国家——爱沙尼亚和拉脱维亚，在本世纪10年代因快速改革曾风光一时，如今却排名垫底。

注释：

1.for the first time in a while: tends to used when there is an unusual, interesting, unexpected, or surprising event.

Source:https://forum.wordreference.com/threads/for-the-first-time-in-a-while.3292128/

2.plumb the depths of ... PHRASE经受极度的…；表现出极端的…

If someoneplumbs the depths of an unpleasant emotion or quality, they experience it or show it to an extreme degree.

3.Plaudit：an act or round of applause n. 喝彩；赞美

Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/plaudit

GDP, usually the best measure of economic health, is our first indicator. Norway (helped by high oil prices) and Turkey (by a boom in sanctions-busting trade with Russia) have done better than most. The fallout from covid-19 also looms large. Thanks to strict lockdowns and a collapse in tourism, a year ago much of southern Europe was in dire straits, so the region was due a decent year. Visits to the Balearics recently rebounded beyond their pre-pandemic level. As your correspondent discovered on a recent trip to Ibiza, the island is so busy it is difficult to book a taxi or find a spot at a half-decent restaurant.

GDP（国内生产总值）通常是衡量经济状况的最佳指标，也是我们第一个指标。挪威和土耳其的表现好于大多数国家，前者有高油价的助力，后者则打破西方对俄制裁，与俄罗斯大量贸易。新冠疫情影响深远。由于严格的封控和旅游业的萧条，一年前南欧大部分地区处于水深火热，因此今年应该是个好年。近来前往巴利阿里群岛旅游的人数回升到疫情之前的水平。记者最近在伊比沙岛发现，小岛相当繁忙，出租车预约爆满，稍微好一点的餐馆找个位子都很难。

注释：

Balearics ：巴利阿里群岛（地中海西部群岛，亦是西班牙的一个自治区）

Ibiza：a Spanish island southwest of Majorca, which attracts a lot of European tourists. Ibiza is known for being a place where young British people go on holiday because of the manyclubs where they can drink and dance.

充当“中转站”！西方对俄制裁让土耳其找到了新商机：

https://m.yicai.com/news/101503303.html

Ireland probably had a strong year, though one not nearly as strong as gdp numbers suggest. The activities of big multinational companies, many registered there for tax purposes, have for years distorted the figures. By contrast, America’s gdp numbers are misleadingly weak: in recent quarters official statisticians have struggled to account for the impact of enormous stimulus packages.

爱尔兰今年经济可能还算强劲，虽然不如GDP数字那么可观。许多大型跨国公司出于税收原因在爱尔兰注册，它们的商业活动多年来一直歪曲了经济数字。相较之下，美国的GDP数据是误导性疲软：最近几个季度，官方统计人员都难以解释大型经济刺激计划的影响。

More granular data fill in the picture. Our second measure is the change in the price level since the end of 2021. Away from the world’s attention, some countries have seen low inflation. In Switzerland consumer prices have risen by just 3%. The country’s central bank, helped along by a strong currency, responded rapidly to the rise in prices earlier this year. Countries which have non-Russian energy sources—such as Spain, which gets much of its gas from Algeria—have also done better than average. Those reliant on Vladimir Putin for fuel have truly suffered. In Latvia average consumer prices have risen by a fifth.

作为补充，还有更多维度的数据。第二个指标是自2021年底以来价格水平的变化。大家没注意到的是，有些国家今年通胀在低位。瑞士消费者价格只上升了3%。瑞士中央银行在强势货币的助力下，对今年早些时候的价格上涨反应迅速。能源供应不依赖俄罗斯的国家表现也好于平均水平，例如大部分天然气来自阿尔及利亚的西班牙。那些依赖俄罗斯提供燃料的国家确实深受影响。拉脱维亚的平均消费者价格上涨了五分之一。

Our third measure also relates to inflation. It calculates the share of items in each country’s inflation basket where prices have risen by more than 2% in the past year. This provides an indication of how entrenched inflation is—and therefore hints at how quickly inflation will fall over the coming year. Some countries that suffer from high headline inflation have nonetheless been able to limit its breadth. In Italy, for instance, average consumer prices have risen by 11% this year, yet “only” two-thirds of its inflation basket has above-target inflation. Japanese inflation also looks like it may fade away. Britain is in more trouble. The price of every category in its basket is rising fast.

第三个衡量标准仍然和通胀相关。它计算了在过去一年中每个国家通胀篮子里面价格提升超过2%的部分的占比；这个指标可以体现通货膨胀的顽固程度，也因此可以暗示来年通胀下降的速度。不过，一些整体通胀率高的国家成功限制了通胀的波及度。比如，意大利今年平均消费者物价指数提升了11%，但在通胀篮子中“仅有”2/3的商品超过了目标通胀率。日本的通货膨胀看起来也可能会消退。英国麻烦更大，其通胀篮子中的每一类商品价格都在飞速上涨。

注释：entrenched

adj. 根深蒂固的；确立的，不容易改的

v. 确立；保证；挖掘壕沟（entrench 的过去分词）

eg：The recession remains deeply entrenched.

经济衰退仍然根深蒂固。

People’s sense of economic well-being does not just come from prices in the shops. They also look at the value of their pension pots and stock portfolios. In some countries it has been a terrible year for these sorts of investments. Share prices in both Germany and South Korea are down by nearly a fifth in 2022, double America’s decline. Swedish stocks have done even worse. Yet there are a few spots of strength. Norway’s stockmarket is up on the year. So is Britain’s, which is populated by the sort of dull, plodding companies that tend to be rewarded when economic times are tough. A fall in the value of the pound has also increased the value of foreign sales.

人们对于经济繁荣的感知不仅仅来自于商店中的商品价格。他们也会关注自己养老金和投资组合的价值。2022年部分国家的这些投资表现惨淡，韩国和德国的股价下跌了近1/5，跌幅是美股的两倍。瑞典的股市表现得更糟。但是也有一些表现强劲的，比如挪威股市上涨。同样上涨的还有英国，那里遍地是产业单一且发展缓慢的企业，而这些企业往往在经济困难时期更能体现其价值。今年英镑的贬值也增加了海外的销售额。

注释：plodding

adj. 单调乏味的；沉重缓慢的

v. 沉重地走；辛勤工作（plod 的 ing 形式）

eg：Crowds of people plodded around in yellow plastic raincoats.

一群群身穿黄色塑料雨衣的人在四下里吃力地走着。

Our final measure concerns the change in net government debt as a share of gdp. In the short run ministers are able to paper over economic cracks by increasing spending or cutting taxes. However this can create more debt and thus the need to turn the fiscal screws in the future. Some governments have spent extravagantly to cope with the cost-of-living squeeze. Germany has allocated funds worth about 7% of gdp to help with sky-high energy costs, meaning its debt-to- gdp ratio has risen. Other countries have pulled back from the splurge, helping to right the fiscal ship. Assisted by high inflation, public debt in southern European countries seems to be on the way down.

最后一个衡量标准是政府净债务占GDP比例的变化。在短期内，部长们能够通过增加财政支出或减税来掩盖经济问题。然而，这会形成更多债务，从而需要在未来收紧财政政策。一些政府挥霍了大量资金来应对生活成本的压迫。德国已拨出占国内生产总值约7%的资金来帮助应对天价的能源成本，这意味着其债务占GDP的比例已经上升。其他国家已经从大量花费中抽身出来，以便纠正财政状况。在高通胀的推动下，南欧国家的公共债务似乎正在下降。

注释：

1.paper over：[V]to conceal (something controversial or unpleasant) 隐瞒(有争议或使人不愉快之事)

2. pull back from：撤回、收回

3. splurge：挥霍、炫耀

Will the gap between 2022’s winners and losers persist in 2023? Before long southern Europe’s economic growth, weighed down by rapidly ageing populations and high debts, will surely fall back to the region’s usual less-than-stellar levels. And there are hopeful signs that in countries such as America and Britain high inflation may finally be easing, which would help them up the rankings.

赢家和输家之间在2022年的差距会在2023年延续下去吗？在迅速老龄化的人口和高额债务的拖累下，不久以后南欧的经济增长肯定会回落到该地区一贯的、不太理想的水平。种种向好的迹象表明，英美等国家的高通胀最终可能得到缓解，从而提升排名。

注释：

1.before long：不久之后，很快

2. less-than-stellar：不够精彩，不尽如人意

Along other dimensions, differences are likely to persist, not least when it comes to those countries reliant on Mr Putin for their energy supplies. Against the odds, many managed to replenish their stores of natural gas before winter set in—but only by paying outrageous prices. With supplies now largely cut off, the coming year will be a lot more difficult. That will be a big concern in the Baltics, but less so on the other side of Europe. It is hard to worry about gas supplies while eating a giant plate of squid on an Ibicencan beach.

从其他维度看，差距很可能会持续存在，尤其是那些依赖俄罗斯提供能源的国家。尽管困难重重，许多国家还是设法在冬天来临前以高昂的价格换来了天然气储备。但由于当前供应基本被切断，未来一年将会困难得多。这将是波罗的海国家的一个大问题，但欧洲另一边的国家则不必那么担心了。毕竟在伊比沙岛海滩上享受一大盘鱿鱼时，很难去担心天然气供应。

注释：

1.against the odds：迎难而上，成败之际，冲破万重的困难

2.outrageous：If you describe something asoutrageous, you are emphasizing that it is unacceptable or very shocking. 不可接受的; 令人震惊的

3. Baltic：波罗斯海，波罗的海各国

4. Ibicencan beach：Ibicencan西班牙语，指西班牙伊比沙岛，伊比沙岛的海滩被认为是欧洲最好的海滩。