美联储加息放缓—“鸽”声嘹亮只是幻觉| 经济学人财经

Finance & economics | A spike in the tail

鸣金难收兵

英文部分选自经济学人20230204财经版块

Finance & economics | A spike in the tail

鸣金难收兵

Rallying markets suffer from a doveish illusion

“鸽式幻觉”助推市场虚假繁荣

Even as the Fed relaxes, real rates rise

尽管美联储放缓加息脚步，实际利率却在上涨

The “money illusion” ranks among the more lyrical-sounding concepts in economics. It refers to the mistake that people make when they focus on nominal rather than real values. Anyone chuffed to get a hefty pay rise over the past year without considering whether, after inflation, they can actually buy more has fallen prey to the illusion. Financial investors ought to be savvier, but they too can be seduced by a lovely nominal story. The Federal Reserve’s downshift to smaller interest-rate rises is a case in point. It may look like a step away from hawkish monetary policy; in real terms, though, the central bank’s stance is tighter than it first appears.

货币幻觉（money illusion）是一个听起来颇具诗意的经济学概念，指的是人们错误地看重名义价值，而非实际价值。若在过去一年，看到大幅涨薪就洋洋自喜，也不考虑通货膨胀后自己的购买力是否有所提升，这就是典型的货币幻觉陷阱。金融投资者理应更加睿智，但是他们同样也会被名义价值这个“可人”的概念诱惑。此次美联储缩小加息幅度后市场的反应便是明证。乍一看，美联储似乎是要一转先前的鹰派货币政策，但实际上，其姿态要远为强硬。

On February 1st the Fed raised rates by a quarter of a percentage point, taking short-term borrowing rates to a ceiling of 4.75%, as widely expected. This was half the size of its last increase, a half-point in December, which in turn was down from its previous string of three-quarter-point increases. The immediate question for investors is when the Fed will call it quits altogether. A narrow majority see the central bank raising interest rates by another quarter point next month and then stopping, as evidence mounts of cooling inflation. Even those more concerned by high inflation are pricing in, at most, an extra half-point of rate increases before the Fed stops. This is the light at the end of the monetary-tightening tunnel that has helped to fuel a stockmarket rally in recent weeks.

2月1日，美联储宣布加息25个基点，将短期借贷利率上限推高至4.75%，这和市场主流预期一致。这一加息幅度为上次的一半（12月加息50个基点），比起此前连续加息75个基点更是大幅放缓。美联储何时会退出加息通道，是投资者当下面对的最迫切的问题。市场微弱多数意见认为，各项数据提示通胀已经在降温，因此美联储下个月将进行最后一次加息，幅度为25个基点。即便是依旧忧心忡忡于通胀的投资者也认为美联储最多再加息50个基点。大家普遍认为已经看到了美联储加息通道尽头的曙光，正因为此，股市在最近几周迎来了一波强势反弹。

Yet what ultimately matters for the companies and households that need to borrow money is the real, not the nominal, rate of interest. Here, the outlook is a little more complicated—and almost certainly less rosy. Conventionally, many observers simply subtract inflation from interest to obtain the real rate. For example, with annual consumer-price inflation of 6.5% in December and the federal funds rate that month at a ceiling of 4.5%, the calculation would imply a real interest rate of -2%, which would still be highly stimulative.

然而，对于需要借款的企业和家庭而言，最重要的还是实际利率，而非名义利率。从这个角度看，前景要复杂一些，而且几乎可以肯定地说，并不乐观。通常情况下，许多观察者计算实际利率的方法是单单从名义利率中扣除通货膨胀的影响。例如，12月份的年度居民消费价格通胀率为6.5% ，而当月的联邦基金利率上限为4.5% ，由此得出实际利率为-2%，这一利率依然具有很强的刺激作用。

注释：

Federal funds rate：联邦基金利率，指美国商业银行之间的隔夜拆借利率，是商业银行将超额准备金借给其他资金短缺银行的计息标准。联邦基金利率是美国经济中最重要的利率，它影响整个货币和金融环境，进而影响报告就业、增长以及通胀等关键经济面。该利率还影响短期利率，因此间接影响房屋、汽车贷款到信用卡的各个方面，因为这些交易的贷款方通常根据联邦基金利率来确定贷款利率。

This, however, reflects a basic mistake. Since interest is a forward-looking variable (ie, how much will be owed at some future date), the relevant comparison with inflation is also forward-looking (ie, how much will prices change by that same future date). Of course, no one can perfectly predict how the economy will evolve, but there are comprehensive gauges of inflation expectations that draw on both bond pricing and survey data. Subtracting one such gauge—the Cleveland Fed’s one-year expected inflation rate—from Treasury yields produces a much steeper trajectory for rates. In real terms they have soared to 2%, the highest since 2007 (see chart).

然而，这就犯下了一个常识性错误。利率是一个前瞻性变量（即未来某个日期将欠多少钱），因此其与通货膨胀的比较也具有前瞻性（即在同一个未来日期，价格将变化多少）。当然，没有人能够完美地预测经济将如何演变，但至少存在一些由债券定价和调查数据形成的通胀预期综合衡量尺度。从美国国债收益率中减去一个这样的衡量尺度，如克利夫兰联储的一年期预期通胀率，我们会得到更陡峭的利率轨迹。如此操作后，实际利率已飙升至2%，为2007年以来的最高水平(见图表)。

相关阅读：

美国克利夫兰联储银行另辟蹊径证实通胀预期数据

https://cn.wsj.com/articles/%E7%BE%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%85%8B%E5%88%A9%E5%A4%AB%E5%85%B0%E8%81%94%E5%82%A8%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C%E5%8F%A6%E8%BE%9F%E8%B9%8A%E5%BE%84%E8%AF%81%E5%AE%9E%E9%80%9A%E8%83%80%E9%A2%84%E6%9C%9F%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE-11647235870

Even after the Fed stops raising nominal rates, real rates will probably go on increasing for some time. Before covid-19 one-year expected inflation was about 1.7%. Now it is 2.7%. If inflation expectations recede towards their pre-pandemic levels, real interest rates would rise by as much as one additional percentage point—reaching a height that has always preceded a recession over the past couple of decades.

即使美联储停止拉高名义利率，实际利率也可能会持续上升一段时间。在新冠疫情之前，一年期预期通胀率约为1.7%，而现在是2.7%。如果通胀预期回落到疫情前水平，实际利率将再升一个百分点——在过往几十年里，如此高的利率水平都是衰退的序曲。

None of this is preordained. If inflation proves to be persistent this year, expectations for future inflation may rise, which would lead to a reduction in real rates. The Fed could end up cutting nominal rates sooner than it has forecast, as many investors predict. Some economists also believe that the natural, or non-inflationary, level of interest rates may have risen since the pandemic, implying that the economy can sustain higher real rates without suffering a recession. Whatever the case, one conclusion is clear. It is always better to stay grounded in reality.

注释：

preordained: If you say that something is preordained, you mean that you believe it is happening in the way that has been decided by a power such as God or fate. 命中注定的; 上天安排的

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