经济学人财经 || 明日黄花，英国惊现"退市潮"

From A-list to delist

从争先上市到选择退市   

Why Britain’s equity market is shrinking

为什么英国股市不断缩水？

A few months ago Trian, a hedge fund, revealed that it had built a 6% stake in Ferguson, a London-listed company that supplies the building trade. Trian is run by Nelson Peltz, who has a long history as the sort of activist investor who buys stakes in firms and then uses his influence over management to boost the share price. Ferguson makes most of its profits in America. Yet its shares traded at a discount to peers listed there. Perhaps something could be done to change this.

在几个月前，对冲基金管理公司特里安（Trian）透露道，他们购买了弗格森（Ferguson）公司6%的股份，一家于伦敦上市的建材供应商。特里安基金公司创始人是华尔街赫赫有名的激进投资者尼尔森•佩尔茨(Nelson Peltz)，他惯用的套路便是：先持有某公司部分股票，随后再利用自身影响力对管理层施压推升股价。尽管弗格森公司的大部分利润源于美国，然而相较于美国上市的其他同业公司，该公司的股价偏低。也许其中就蕴有商机。

注：

1. Ferguson plc is a Jersey-registered multinational plumbing and heating products distributor with its head office in Winnersh Triangle, United Kingdom. Ferguson has approximately 35,000 employees across three regions.Wolseley plc changed its name to Ferguson plc in 2017 to reflect the primacy of its US operations. The Company is registered in Jersey. The company continues to trade as Wolseley in the UK and Canada.

Wolseley plc 是世界最大的热化和配管产品交易分销商和一个主导的对专业市场的建造材料供应商。Wolseley 在欧洲和北美洲经营。Wolseley在美国以Ferguson Enterprises和Stock Building Supply为名经营。沃斯利集团是全球最大的保暖及管道器材批发商、传统建材市场的主要供应商，分别在伦敦和纽约上市。

2. 纳尔逊·佩尔茨( Nelson peltz)：佩尔茨在2005年成立了一个对冲基金公司 “特里安金管理公司”( Trian Fund Management)，专门从事对经营不善的上市公司的敌意收购，通过入驻目标公司董事会、整顿高管团队和商业模式、精简员工与运营结构来挖掘价值。这个基金目前管理110亿美元。

3. 推荐阅读《门口的野蛮人》

Sure enough, Ferguson said last month that it would spin off the British part of the business to focus >equity capital.

果然在上月，弗格森宣布他们将逐步从母公司分拆英国业务，而专注于美国业务。该公司还表示，他们正考虑转移上市地点。万一该公司真选择在英国退市，也不过是英国市场资本逃离大趋势下的一个缩影罢了。

注：

1. spin-off：分拆，把(新公司的股票)分给母公司的股东；把新公司的股票分给母公司的股东以创建(公司)

分拆是指一个母公司通过将其在子公司中所拥有的股份，按比例地分配给现有母公司的股东，从而在法律上和组织上将子公司的经营从母公司的经营中分离出去，这时，便有两家独立的（最初的）、股份比例相同的公司存在，而在此之前只有一家公司。

2. should 置於句首，而省略if, 意思是「萬一」

America’s stock of equity has been getting smaller for a while, because of share buy-backs, a secular fall in the number of new listings and the growing incidence of leveraged buy-outs, in which low-interest debt replaces equity. Britain is now the leading candidate for such “de-equitisation”, says Robert Buckland, of Citigroup. The net stock of equity outstanding has fallen by 3% since the start of 2018, faster than in America. Cheap debt is a factor. But debt is cheap everywhere. What makes Britain so ripe for the picking is its culture of accountability to shareholders. Activist investors, like Trian, can get results there.

受股票回购热潮、新上市公司数量不断下降以及杠杆收购案例不断上升的影响（低息债务融资取代股权融资），美国股市规模已经持续衰退一段时间。 但花旗集团的罗伯特·巴克兰（Robert Buckland）表示，英国现已成为这种“去股权化”现象的领头者，自2018年年初以来，（英国股市）已发行流通股数已下降了3%，降速高于美国。英国金融市场其他融资成本越来越低也许是一个因素，但其实全球也都一样，真正令英国股票市场脱颖而出的是其发展多年所形成的对股东负责的文化，能让像特里安这样激进的投资机构从中获利。（正是英国股市良好的对股东负责的文化，使得众多投资者得以如愿以偿的获得收益后，大举抽资逃离，从而最终造成了英国股市现今去股市化，即股市衰退的局面）

注：

1. stock of equity outstanding：Shares outstanding refer to a company's stock currently held by all its shareholders, including share blocks held by institutional investors and restricted shares owned by the company’s officers and insiders.

2. 罗伯特·巴克兰：花旗集团全球首席股票策略师

3. de-equitisation：去股权化，指股票市场规模收缩的趋势，企业倾向于从股权融资转向其他融资方式。

4. so ripe for the picking：To be in an ideal position or at the perfect stage to be utilized, benefited or profited from, taken advantage of, exploited, etc.

https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/ripe+for+the+picking

The backdrop is a shift in the relative costs of debt and equity finance. One way to look at this is through the prism of expected returns. A rough-and-ready gauge of expected returns >earnings yield would not change. The prospective earnings yield >ftse All-Share index of London-listed stocks is 7.6%. Compare this with a proxy for an expected real return on corporate debt—the yield on investment-grade bonds less the current inflation rate, which is below zero. The gap between the two is the reward demanded for holding riskier stocks. It is also, by symmetry, a measure of the relative cost to companies of issuing equity versus debt.

在英国债权融资和股权融资的相对成本发生了改变的大背景下，我们可以从预期收益的角度来理解这一现象。衡量股票预期回报率的一个粗略指标是收益率，即市盈率的倒数（如果市盈率是20，收益率为5%）。同时它也可以衡量实际收益率：如果通胀爆发，资产及消费品价格以相同的速率上涨，盈利收益率将保持不变。伦敦富时全股指数其预期盈利收益率为7.6%。相较而言，公司债投资预期实际回报率竟然低于零，即投资级债券的收益率减去目前通胀率。股指收益率和债券收益率两者之间的差额是持有更高风险的股票资产所要求的风险溢价。反过来看，这也是衡量公司发行股票还是发行债券两者间成本的指标。（对股权融资和债权融资而言，其投资者收益率要求就代表了其融资成本。那么上述的债券融资收益率要求远低于股权融资收益率要求，所以其成本也低，因此低廉的债权融资对股权融资形成了竞争，投资者纷纷涌入债券市场以寻求收益）

注：

1. rough-and-ready：美国习惯用语。If something is rough and ready, it is simple and basic, or it is not exact, because it has been made or done quickly.

2. 市盈率：每股市价与每股盈利的比率，是最常用来评估股价水平是否合理的指标之一。

3. FTSE All-Share index：富时综合股价指数，市值加权指数，纳入600余家在英国伦敦交易所上市的股票。

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FTSE_All-Share_Index

This “financing gap” is noticeably wide in Britain (see chart). The size of the gap, says Mr Buckland, “offers a potential arbitrage opportunity for private equity and other debt-funded investors”. In other words, there is plenty of scope to replace dear equity capital with cheap debt capital.

英国的“融资差值”问题甚是明显（详见图表）。巴克兰指出，这程度的缺口“很有可能为私募股权和其它债权投资者创造套利机会”。换句话说，用便宜的举债成本取代昂贵的股权成本有着很大投机空间。

There are particular conditions in Britain that make this opportunity worth looking at. The FTSE All-Share has fared worse than most other rich-world stock indices since Britain voted to leave the European Union in 2016. The sharp fall in the pound since then has boosted the sterling value of foreign profits made overseas. More than 70% of the earnings of companies listed in Britain come from overseas; around a quarter comes from North America alone. There is thus an opening for American investors or companies to buy dollar earnings >industrial firms.

而上述套利机会得以实现的前提，正是源自于英国现今所处的特殊状况。首先是，自2016年英国公投“脱欧”以来，其富时全股（FTSE All-Share）指数与其他大多数发达国家相比而言，跌幅更大。其次是，英镑急剧贬值使得海外业务利润率激增。在英国上市的公司中有70%以上的收入来自海外，其中仅北美地区就约占1/4。因此这一状况为美国投资者低价获得更多的美元收益提供了窗口。（英镑贬值，美国投资者投资英国企业成本降低，同等美元投资下，获取更多的英镑投资收益）巴克兰先生研究发现，那些大部分收益来自美国的英国公司，其估值却低于美国同行，并且多数是工业公司。

Scour the bourses of the world and you will not struggle to find lots of cheap industrial stocks. The problem with investing in such out-of-favour shares is that somebody else must come along to buy them off you at a higher price for the strategy to work. There is no law that says cheap stock cannot stay cheap for a long time, or become even cheaper. The activist approach is to buy cheap-looking stocks and then work to get their latent value realised. This is more likely to succeed in Britain than in Germany, Japan, South Korea or other places with cheap-looking cyclical stocks. It could involve a push to get a firm to buy back its own shares. It could mean hawking the company, or a division of it, to another company or to a private-equity firm. If buyers won’t come to you, go to them by relisting somewhere that puts a higher value on your shares, such as America.

环顾全球股市，不难发现有大量工业股被低估。投资这些失宠股票的关键在于，必须有人以高价接盘，这样整个策略才能奏效。没有任何一个法律规定低价的股票不能一直保持低价，或者不能更低。激进分子的做法是买入看似便宜的股票，然后努力实现其潜在价值。相比较德国、日本、韩国或其他拥有廉价周期性股票的国家，这一策略在英国更容易成功。这可能会促使公司回购自己的股票。 这也可能意味着需要公司向另一家公司或私募股权公司兜售自己的股票或某一块业务。如果这里没有买家，那么就去别处——一个愿意出高价的地方，比如美国。

注：
1. bourse可数名词 The bourse of a European city or region is its stock exchange. (欧洲的)证券交易所；股票交易所

2.  Industrial stock 工业股，是指在证券交易所挂牌交易的工业类公司所发行的股票、债券等证券。比如：电力，钢铁，汽车，食品，饮料，酿酒，纺织，制药，等从事产品制造的企业发行的股票、债券等证券。

3.  Latent: Latent is used to describe something which is hidden and not obvious at the moment, but which may develop further in the future. 潜在的；隐藏的

eg. Advertisements attempt to project a latent meaning behind an overt message.

广告试图传达一种隐藏在公开信息里的潜在意义。

As yet there has been no nativist backlash. Britain’s stockmarket seems likely to shrink further. Whatever the means—under-the-radar buy-outs, mergers, spin-offs, or simply a drying-up of new issues—the underlying cause will be the same. Companies are turning their backs on the stockmarket because equity capital is relatively dear. The irony is that Britain’s a-list shareholder culture makes its de-equitisation all the likelier.

到目前为止，本土主义者还未强烈反对。英国股市似乎还会进一步收缩，不管方式是什么——幕后收购、兼并、分拆，或者仅仅是停止发行新股——背后的原因都是一样的，那就是由于股票资本相对昂贵，迫使许多公司放弃股票市场。讽刺的是，正是英国引以为傲的一流股东文化，给了股市沉重的一击。

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翻译组：

Olivia，教育从业者，经济学人粉丝

Vivifang，女，外币债券交易员，经济学人粉丝

Summer，女，QE在职，梦想能仗翻译/音乐/健康走天涯

校对组：

Leon,  男，金融专业研究生，经济学人铁粉

Emily，食物链底端金融民工，经济学人粉丝

Jessie Lulu, 金融从业者，爱阳光，爱细雨，爱经济学人