硅谷银行“猝死”后，市场何去何从？ | 经济学人财经

Finance & economics | Buttonwood

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Finance & economics | Buttonwood

财经板块 | 梧桐树专栏

For markets Silicon Valley Bank’s demise signals a painful new phase

对于市场来说，硅谷银行的倒闭宣告了一个痛苦新阶段的到来

The Fed’s tightening is starting to bite

美联储紧缩政策的负面影响开始凸显

To quell inflation, goes the adage, central bankers must tighten monetary policy until something breaks. For much of the past year this cliché has been easy to dismiss. Starting in March 2022, America’s Federal Reserve has raised rates at the fastest clip since the 1980s. Even as markets plunged, the world’s financial system stayed wreckage-free. When British pension funds wobbled in September, the Bank of England swiftly helped right them. The most notable collapse—that of ftx, a disgraced former crypto exchange—was well outside the mainstream and, regulators say, caused by fraud rather than the Fed.

常言道，要想将那通胀抑，央行须把银根紧，直到大厦轰然倾。过去一年的大部分时间里，人们对这种陈词滥调都不屑一顾。自2022年3月起，美联储以上世纪八十年代以来最快的步伐加息。但纵使市场暴跌，全球金融系统依旧完好无损。9月英国养老金体系摇摇欲坠之时，英格兰银行迅速出手助其摆脱困境。最引人注目的崩溃莫过于FTX，一家不太光彩的前加密货币交易所，但是一来，加密货币并非金融市场主流；二来，如监管机构所言，爆雷的原因乃是欺诈，非为加息。

注释：

1.quell：To quell opposition or violent behaviour means to stop it. 镇压

2.adage：An adage is something that people often say and that expresses a general truth about some aspect of life. 谚语

3. cliché：A cliché is an idea or phrase which has been used so much that it is no longer interesting or effective or no longer has much meaning. 陈词滥调表不满

4. wreckage： When something such as a plane, car, or building has been destroyed, you can refer to what remains as wreckage or the wreckage. (飞机、汽车失事或房屋遭损毁后的) 残骸

5. wobble：If something or someone wobbles, they make small movements from side to side, for example, because they are unsteady. 摇晃

6.disgraced：羞辱、不光彩

7. bite: to start to have an unpleasant effect 开始出现不好的效果

Now something has broken. The failure of Silicon Valley Bank (svb), a mid-tier American lender that went bust on March 10th, sent shock waves through markets. Most noticeable were convulsions in the stocks of other banks, which investors worried may have similar vulnerabilities. Nasdaq’s index of bank stocks dropped by a quarter in the course of a week, erasing gains from the preceding 25 years. Shares in American regional lenders were bludgeoned much harder. Then the turmoil went global: shares in Credit Suisse, a European bank, cratered on March 15th. Financial markets have entered a new phase, in which the Fed’s tightening cycle starts to bite.

而现在，楼塌了。3月10日，美国一家中等规模银行硅谷银行（Silicon Valley Bank, SVB）破产， 在市场上引起轩然大波。最显著的影响莫过于其他银行股价的震荡，因为投资者担忧它们可能存在相似的问题。纳斯达克银行股指数在一周之内下跌了四分之一，使得过去25年来取得的全部收益一下就化为乌有。美国区域性银行的股价受到的冲击更大。紧接着，动乱蔓延至全球市场：欧洲银行瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）的股票在3月15日崩盘。金融市场进入全新的阶段，美联储紧缩周期的负面影响开始凸显。

注释：

1.convulsions：If someone has convulsions, they suffer uncontrollable movements of their muscles. 抽搐

2. bludgeon：To bludgeon someone means to hit them several times with a heavy object. (用重器) 连击

3.Crater: A crater is a very large hole in the ground, which has been caused by something hitting it or by an explosion. (撞击或爆炸形成的) 大坑

4.瑞士瑞信暴雷事件：3月15日，瑞信最大股东沙特国家银行称因监管原因，不能持有超过10%的瑞信股份，因此无法提供更多援助。瑞信股价应声下跌，继硅谷银行之后，再次引发投资者对于银行业的担忧。前一天，已有消息称，其2021和2022财年的报告程存在“重大缺陷”，未能在财报中设计和维持有效的风险评估。

One feature of this phase is that markets are suddenly working with the Fed rather than against it. For more than a year, the central bank’s officials have been repeating the same message: that inflation is proving more stubborn than expected, meaning interest rates will need to rise higher than previously predicted. This message was reinforced by data released on March 14th showing that underlying consumer prices had once again risen faster than expected.

新阶段的特征之一，便是一夜之间，市场不再和美联储唱对台戏，而是转向了联袂合作。过去一年多中，美联储的官员一直在强调一点信息：通货膨胀比想象中更顽固，意味着利率将高于之前的预估。3月14日发布的数据显示基本消费价格指数上涨速度高于预估，这也进一步印证了美联储的观点。

Policymakers want to tighten financial conditions—such as lending standards, interest costs or money-market liquidity—in order to reduce aggregate demand and cool price rises. Since October, markets have been pulling in the other direction. A gauge of financial conditions compiled by Bloomberg, a data provider, has shown them steadily loosening. Over the past week, all this loosening has been reversed. svb’s collapse has shocked markets into doing the Fed’s job.

为抑制总需求、减缓价格上涨，政策制定者们意图收紧金融环境，包括借贷标准、利率、货币市场流动性等。去年十月份以来，市场一直与美联储背道而行。数据提供商彭博社的金融环境指数显示市场正在持续走向宽松。一周之前，金融环境走向来了个180度转弯：硅谷银行的倒闭让市场惊恐不已，纷纷响应起美联储的紧缩举措。

That does not mean investors have given up fighting the Fed. They are still betting it will soon start cutting rates, even though officials have given no such indication. The battleground has nevertheless shifted. Earlier this year, expectations of rate cuts sprang from hopes inflation would fall faster than the Fed expected. Now they reflect fear. On March 13th the two-year Treasury yield fell by 0.61 percentage points, the biggest one-day drop in more than 40 years. Panicked trading on March 15th prompted worries of the market seizing up. Given that some banks have failed, investors are betting that the Fed will cut rates not because the inflation monster is tamed, but in order to avoid breaking anything else.

这并不意味着投资者们放弃了与美联储的斗争。他们仍在押注美联储将很快开始降息，尽管官员们没有给出这样的暗示。然而，这场战斗的重心已经发生了转移。今年早些时候，人们预期通胀率下降速度将快于美联储的预期，从而引发了降息预期。而现在，降息预期反映的是恐慌和担忧。3月13日，两年期美国国债收益率下跌0.61个百分点，创下40多年来最大单日跌幅。而3月15日的恐慌性交易更是引发了市场停滞的担忧。鉴于有些银行已经“凉凉”，投资者们押注美联储将会降息，但不是因为通胀已经得到抑制，而是因为“投鼠忌器”。

注释：

1.Two-year Treasury yield：两年期美国国债收益率是一个重要的基准利率，它反映了美国政府借款成本的水平。这个利率的变化可以反映市场对经济和政府债务的预期和看法。如果这个利率下降，意味着投资者愿意接受更低的回报率来购买美国政府债券，这可能是经济不确定性或市场预期发生变化的信号。因此，两年期美国国债收益率的变化对金融市场和整个经济都有重要的影响。

2. seize up：一般指市场或金融系统停滞或失灵。这可能会发生在市场情绪剧烈波动或流动性短缺时，导致交易和资金流动变得异常困难或停止。当市场出现严重波动或金融机构出现困境时，投资者可能会感到担忧，从而可能导致市场停滞。

Taken in conjunction with the reaction in other markets, this suggests a degree of cognitive dissonance. Broader stockmarket indices fell, but not precipitously. The s&p 500 index of large American firms is level with its position at the start of the year. The dollar, which tends to strengthen in crises as investors flock to safety, weakened a little. On the one hand, investors think the Fed should fear bank failures enough to start cutting rates. On the other, they do not themselves fear the fallout of such a failure enough to reflect it in prices.

结合其它市场的反应，投资者的行动和市场的反应似乎有些矛盾。整体的股指有所下跌，但幅度并不是很大。当前，反映美国大型企业表现的标普500指数与年初持平。在危机中，投资者通常会寻求避险，致使美元走强。但这次，美元却略有走弱。一方面，投资者认为美联储应该会担心银行破产从而开始降息；另一方面，他们并不十分惧怕银行倒闭的影响，因而股票市场并未动摇。

Lying behind this contradiction is supposed tension between the Fed’s inflation target and its duty to protect financial stability. The failure of svb, which was rooted in losses from fixed-rate bonds (the value of which fell as rates rose), looks like evidence for this. Since even the fight against inflation pales in importance next to the stability of the banking system, goes the argument, the Fed cannot afford to raise rates any higher. This lowers the risk of recession, gives a boost to stocks and reduces the need for haven assets like the dollar.

这种矛盾的背后，是美联储既想实现通胀目标，又要履行维护金融市场稳定职责的紧张博弈。硅谷银行的倒闭似乎证明了这一点：其破产的根源是固定利率债券的亏损（随着利率上升，固定利率债券的价值下降）。这种观点认为，在维护银行体系稳定面前，就算是抗击通胀也得靠边站，美联储将无法承受进一步加息带来的后果。这降低了衰退的风险，提振了股市，并降低了投资者对美元等避险资产的需求。

Do not be so sure. Following svb’s collapse, the Fed has promised to backstop other banks. Its support—lending against securities worth as little as two-thirds of the loan value—should prevent any remotely solvent institution from going under wherever interest rates end up. Alongside this generosity lies an uncomfortable truth. To squeeze inflation out of the economy, the Fed needs to make lenders nervous, loans expensive and businesses risk-averse. Allowing reckless banks such as svb to fail is not a tragic accident. It is part of the Fed’s job.

但这也不是板上钉钉的事。在硅谷银行倒闭后，美联储已承诺为其他银行提供支持：银行可以将优质资产典押给美联储，后者将按抵押物的票面价值，而非实际市值(仅为票面价值的三分之二)为银行提供现金。这样一来，不论利率如何变动，哪怕是几乎没有偿付能力的银行也都不至于破产。这一慷慨之举的背后是一个令人不安的事实。为了遏制通胀，美联储需要让借贷者紧张起来，提高贷款成本，让企业不愿冒险。容许硅谷银行这样鲁莽的银行倒闭既不是悲剧，也不是意外，而是美联储的职责所在。

注：
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/03/16/how-deep-is-the-rot-in-americas-banking-industry?itm_source=parsely-api

Second, the Federal Reserve would create a new emergency-lending facility, the Bank Term Funding Programme. This would allow banks to deposit high-quality assets, like Treasuries or mortgage bonds backed by government agencies, in return for a cash advance worth the face value of the asset, rather than its market value.