经济学人社论 | 脱欧后的英国将何去何从

Britain after Brexit

脱欧之后的英国

Into the unknown

前途未卜

Now that Britain is sailing in uncharted waters, Boris Johnson needs a lodestar.

英国正在未知的水域航行，鲍尔斯·约翰逊需要一颗北极星指引方向。

Liberalism offers one 

自由主义是一个方向

Not much will change at 11pm on January 31st. Some 50p pieces proclaiming “peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations” will go into circulation to mark Britain’s departure from the European Union, but people, goods and services will continue to move freely between Britain and the EU, for the difficult business of making a deal on trade and migration has been left to the transition period that lasts until the end of this year.

1月31日晚上11点，英国脱欧尘埃落定，眼下并没有很大变化。英国将发行面值50便士的“脱欧”纪念币，上面印有“与各国共享和平，繁荣和友谊”，而人员、货物和服务等仍可继续在欧盟和英国间自由流动，因为有关贸易和移民等棘手事务留待过渡期内（至今年年底）解决。

注:

1. 英国将发行“脱欧”纪念币

https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1656805938126685250&wfr=spider&for=pc

2. 英国脱欧 约翰逊首相承诺“新时代黎明破晓”

https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/uk-51327632

Yet leaving the EU is a huge moment. Britain will be quitting the institutional structure that governs Europe’s single market, which will necessarily imply more friction in its trade relations with a club that takes almost half its exports. Britons will lose the automatic right they now have to live and work across the EU. Brexit has also administered a shock to the country. The nation has argued long and bitterly over the issue, and its ruling elite has suffered a blow. The unarguable outcome is the most powerful government in a generation, under Boris Johnson. Much now depends on how he responds.

但脱欧是历史重大时刻。英国将退出欧洲单一市场的体制结构，这意味着英国与欧盟之间的贸易摩擦将增多，因为英国近半出口输往欧洲。英国人也会失去他们现在能在欧盟境内自由生活和工作的权利。脱欧也在英国掀起了轩然大波，国内在脱欧事宜上进行了旷日持久的激烈争辩，执政者们遭受着巨大的压力。无可争议的结果便是产生了最具强权的一代政府，即由鲍里斯·约翰逊执政的政府。脱欧事宜现在很大程度上取决于他的举动。

The Economist did not advocate this outcome. Most of the changes that Mr Johnson’s government favours could have been accomplished without leaving the EU. System-wide shocks are usually a costly way to bring about change. Yet now that Brexit is definitely happening, the country should make the most of the chance to recalibrate the economy and reset its priorities.

本刊并不拥护这一结果。约翰逊政府想要的改变哪怕不脱欧也能实现。通过动摇整个制度（即脱欧）来达到改变的目的未免代价过大。但既然脱欧之事已成定局，英国的当务之急是尽一切努力重新调整经济方向，重置发展重心。

The last couple of times Britain pressed the reset button, in 1945 and 1979, the programmes that it put into place to create the welfare state and replace socialism with Thatcherism had been long-planned. This time is different. Mr Johnson was focused entirely on leaving the EU and is now being buffeted by the storms that brew up swiftly in the affairs of state: he had to decide this week whether to bow to American demands that Britain keep Huawei, a Chinese company, out of its mobile-phone network (he did not), and must shortly make a call on whether a high-speed rail project to link the north of England to the south (hs2) should go ahead (it should).

历史上英国曾两次发生重大转变，分别是1945年英国决定建立福利国家，以及1979年撒切尔当选首相，用撒切尔主义取代xx主义。这些计划都是规划已久的。但今时不同往日，约翰逊过去一心只扑在脱欧上，现在需要面对各种国家紧急风暴事件的考验。他本周需要确定是否要屈服于美国的要求，禁止中国企业华为参与建设移动网络（他并未禁止）；也要迅速决定是否继续2号高速铁路项目，建设一条连接英国南北的铁路（项目应当继续）。

注:  2号高速铁路 (High Speed 2): 是英国一条计划中的高速铁路路线，以丫字型连接伦敦、伯明翰、曼彻斯特、里兹等英格兰境内的主要城市，设计时速达400公里，预计2026年完成首段伦敦至伯明翰段，2033年全线完工。有可能再延长至苏格兰。路线已于下议院获批。

Mr Johnson grasps the excitement of the moment, but so far he has shown himself no more than a brilliant opportunist. If his premiership is to leave its mark, it needs to be founded on a strategic vision, not tactical campaigning.

约翰逊终于实现了脱欧的愿望，但到目前为止他不过只是一个出色的机会主义者。如果他想在首相任职期内有所作为，就需要有战略眼光，不能短视。

That vision should be based on liberalism. The belief in freedom as the underpinning of civilisation, in the state as the servant of the individual rather than vice versa, and in the open exchange of goods, services and opinions, arose in Britain. It fits naturally with a national character which suspects authority and tends towards pragmatism rather than idealism. It underpinned the country’s progress in the 19th and 20th centuries and spread to become the world’s dominant political philosophy. But it is now under threat, not least in Britain.

这种眼光必须以自由主义为基础。信仰自由之风最早在英国兴起，他们认为自由是文明社会的基础；国家是个人的公仆，反之则不然；商品、服务和思想应当开放互通。这与怀疑权威、倾向实用主义而不是理想主义的民族性格自然契合。自由主义是19世纪和20世纪国家进步的基石，也逐渐成了主导世界的政治哲学。然而，它正面临着威胁，在英国尤其如此。

Brexit was born in part of the instincts to throw up barriers against the world. But within it was an ultra-liberal strand, which regarded the EU as too statist and parochial. Mr Johnson needs to unite the liberals and to persuade sceptics that a system based on free markets and free trade can work for them, too.

脱欧一部分是源于摆脱世界束缚的本能。但是在其内部，有一股极端自由主义势力。它认为欧盟太过集权，也太过狭隘。约翰逊需要联合自由派人士，说服那些怀疑者，告诉他们基于自由市场和自由贸易的体制对他们而言也是起作用的。

Abroad, liberalism means using Britain’s still-considerable muscle in the service of free trade and individual rights, whether in backing the World Trade Organisation or holding China to account for abuses in Xinjiang. Mr Johnson’s decision that the country should use Huawei’s equipment was, thus, right: liberalism means not going along with President Donald Trump’s attempts to drive China out of global technology supply chains.

在国外，自由主义意味着英国在自由贸易和个人权利服务方面仍然相当强大的力量，比如支持世界贸易组织(WTO)。因此，约翰逊决定在英国使用华为设备是正确之举：不跟随美国总统特朗普试图将中国赶出全球科技供应链的举动就是一种自由主义。

Liberalism may also on occasion mean diverging from how the EU regulates business. In many areas, like manufacturing or food safety, following standards set in Brussels may be sensible even after Brexit, not least because the EU market is so valuable. In others it may be a bad idea to accept the EU’s rules. In financial services, competing EU financial centres may seek to use regulation to handicap the City. In science and technology, Britain’s instinctive approach to regulation, which tends to be principles-based rather than relying on precaution, may be better suited to fostering innovation than the EU’s.

自由主义有时也意味着偏离欧盟对商业的监管方式。即使在脱欧后，英国在手工业和食品业等多个行业中遵从欧盟设定的规则标准仍是明智的，因为欧盟市场价值巨大。然而在其他行业，死守欧盟的规章制度就不是什么好主意了。在金融服务领域，竞争对手欧盟金融中心很可能会用规章来制约英国；在科技领域，英国对监管的本能做法往往是基于原则，而不是依赖预防措施，这可能比欧盟更适合促进创新

At home, liberalism means making the system open to all comers. Beneath the Brexit vote lay discontent that sprang from the sense that an economic system which pretends to be open is actually based on cronyism, run by and for a glossy, overpaid London-based elite impenetrable to those who are poor, provincial and without a foot on the property ladder.

在国内，自由主义意味着让英国经济体系对所有人开放。2016年脱欧公投，其背后是人们对经济体制的不满。这种不满情绪源于这样一种感觉:一个看似开放的经济体系，实际上内部任人唯亲，由伦敦那些光鲜的、薪酬过高的精英们管理，而贫穷之人、外省之人，以及无力买房者永远进不了精英层。

Mr Johnson’s mantra is “levelling up” by boosting growth in the regions. He should be talking about “opening up” to give everybody the opportunity to share in prosperity. That means encouraging social mobility by spending more money on children’s early years, allowing the construction of more houses so that younger people can have decent homes, running an energetic competition policy to keep incumbents on their toes and building roads and railways in areas that have been short-changed. hs2 should be part of that: although its estimated costs keep rocketing, the gains from boosting rail capacity and speed across Britain will outweigh them.

约翰逊的口号是通过促进地区发展以达到“各地均衡”。他应该谈一下把机会向所有人“开放”，来让他们在英国发展中分一杯羹。而那也意味着需要通过以下几个方面来增强社会流动性：增加儿童早期的资金投入，建造更多房子来让年轻人有个像样的家，实施积极的竞争政策，让现有管理者保持警惕，并在被忽视的地区修建公路和铁路。比如，2号高速铁路的修建。尽管它的估计成本持续飙升，但提高英国铁路运力和速度的收益将超过成本。

Neither should the agenda be purely economic. Self-determination is central to liberalism, but over the past 150 years, power has slowly leached away from the English regions to Westminster. Scotland and Wales were given considerable autonomy in 1999, but England is highly centralised. Brexit was England’s revenge on Westminster for giving special privileges to Scotland and Wales but ignoring the regions; and the consequence may yet be the break-up of the union. But whatever the fate of the union, a liberal government needs to decentralise power, not just because decisions are best made as close to the action as possible, but also because people need to feel they have power over their own destiny.

脱欧后的议程也不该只是纯粹的经济化。人民的自主决策权是自由主义的核心，但过去150年，英格兰各地方的权力慢慢过渡到了威斯敏斯特宫（议会大厦）。1999年，苏格兰和威尔士地区得到了相当大的自治权，但英格兰却是高度集权化的。脱欧就是英格兰对英国政府的“复仇”，因为政府给了苏格兰和威尔士特权，却忽视了英格兰。结局可能是英国解体。但无论英国的命运如何，自由政府就应该下放权力。不仅是因为决策要可行，还因为人们需要有参与感。

Britain’s future is full of uncertainty. No longer part of one of the great global blocs, it has to find a new role in the world. Pulled apart by the tensions within the union, its nations need to find a new accommodation. Shaken by the bitter arguments over Brexit, it has to mend its frayed social contract. The difficulties should not be underestimated. But when Britain previously reset its course, in 1945 and 1979, the choices it made helped reshape the world. It should aim to do that again.

英国的未来仍然充满了不确定性。脱欧后，英国再也不是欧盟的一员了，因此英国必须找到自己在世界中扮演的新角色。脱欧后，国内的紧张局势使英国内部分裂，因此英国必须取得新的内部和解，同时也要修复因为激烈的脱欧争论而被损害的的社会契约关系。不应低估这些困难。1945年和1979年两次重设国家发展路线，结果都重塑了世界。这一次，英国也应立志于此。

翻译组： 

Rachel，女，翻硕菜鸡，元气少女

Charlotte，女，子瞻太白本命 经学粉

Rex，男，口译研究生，立志成为同传，经学钢粉