The World in 2020  

展望2020

The decade of the “young old” begins   

迎来“青老年”时代

People turning 65 will not retire quietly into the background

人们到65岁时将不会默默“退居幕后”

THE YEAR 2020 will mark the beginning of the decade of the yold, or the “young old”, as the Japanese call people aged between 65 and 75. The height of the baby boom, the period of high fertility in rich countries after the second world war, was 1955-60. The traditional retirement age is 65, and 2020-25 is 65 years later. One might therefore expect peak retirement for baby-boomers in the coming years—except that they are not retiring. By continuing to work, and staying socially engaged, the boomers, in their new guise as the young old, will change the world, as they have done several times before at different stages of their lives.

2020年将标志着“青老年”（ 日本人称呼65岁至75岁的人为青老年）时代的开始。二战后，富裕国家有一段时期婴儿的出生率高，被称为婴儿潮，在1955至1960年达到了顶峰。传统的退休年龄是65岁，也就是2020-2025年他们将退休。因此，人们预测婴儿潮一代将在未来几年迎来退休潮——除非他们不退休。他们将以青老年的新身份继续工作、参加社会活动。他们会改变世界，正如他们在之前人生不同阶段做过的那样。

The yold are more numerous, healthier and wealthier than previous generations of seniors. There will be 134m 65- to 74-year-olds in rich countries in 2020 (11% of the population), up from 99m (8%) in 2000. That is the fastest rate of growth of any large age group. Health worsens with age, but the yold are resisting the decline better than most: of the 3.7 years of increased life expectancy in rich countries between 2000 and 2015, says the World Health Organisation, 3.2 years were enjoyed in good health. The yold are also better off: between 1989 and 2013, the median wealth of families headed by someone over 62 in America rose by 40% to $210,000, while the wealth of all other age groups declined.

与前几代老年人相比，这一代青老年的数量更多、更健康、更有钱。2000年，富裕国家65至74岁老人的数量为9900万，占总人口的8%，而到2020年，这一数字将上升到1.34亿，占总人口的11%。在任一年龄组中，这一群体人数增速最快。健康状况通常会随着年龄的增长而下降，但青老年健康下降程度最小：世界卫生组织表示，在2000至2015年间，富裕国家人均寿命延长了3.7年，人们在其中的3.2年里健康状况都相当良好。青老年一代经济状况也不错：在1989至2013年间， 62岁以上美国老人家庭财富中位数增长了40%，达到21万美元，而所有其他年龄组财富都在下降。

The yold are busier, too. In 2016 just over a fifth of people aged 65-69 were in work in rich countries, a figure that is rising fast. Working is one of the factors that are helping people stay healthy longer. A German study found that people who remain at work after the normal retirement age manage to slow the cognitive decline associated with old age and have a cognitive capacity of someone a year and a half younger.

青老年也更忙碌。2016年，富裕国家中65-69岁的人仅有五分之一在工作，但这一数字正迅速增长。工作是帮助人们更长时间保持健康的因素之一。德国一项研究发现，超过正常退休年龄仍在工作的人，能够减缓与老年相关的认知能力下降，而且认知能力不比小他们一岁半的人低。

And miles to go before they sleep

青老年：余生还长

In short, the yold are not just any group of old people. They are challenging the traditional expectations of the retired as people who wear slippers and look after the grandchildren. That will disrupt consumer, service and financial markets.

简言之，这一代青老年不再是传统意义上的老年人。他们正在挑战对退休老人的传统印象：穿着拖鞋在家照顾孙子孙女。他们会颠覆消费者、服务和金融市场。

The over-60s are one of the fastest-growing groups of customers of the airline business. The yold are vital to the tourism industry because they spend much more, when taking a foreign holiday, than younger adults. They are also changing education. Harvard has more students at its Division for Continuing Education (for mature and retired students) than it does at the university itself. And, because of the importance of pensions, the yold are transforming insurance companies from passive distributors of fixed annuities to financial-service providers for customers who want to manage their pension pots more actively.

60岁以上的人群是航空公司增长最快的客户群之一。青老年对旅游业至关重要，原因在于相比年青人，他们在出国旅游方面支出更多。青老年也在改变教育方式。哈佛大学继续教育学院（面向成年和退休人群）的学生人数早已超出了其在校生。此外，鉴于养老金的重要性，青老年正将保险公司从被动发放固定年金的机构，转变为金融服务商，为想要更加积极管理养老金的客户服务。

注：

1. Harvard University Extension School哈佛继续教育学院，也称为哈佛拓展学院

https://guanwangdaquan.com/harvard/

2. A fixed annuity is a type of annuity contract that allows for the accumulation of capital on a tax-deferred basis. In exchange for a lump sum of capital, a life insurance company credits the annuity account with a guaranteed fixed interest rate while guaranteeing the principal investment.

https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E5%9B%BA%E5%AE%9A%E5%B9%B4%E9%87%91

3. Pension pot

https://www.ageuk.org.uk/information-advice/money-legal/pensions/what-you-can-do-with-your-pension-pot/

The rise of the yold will be a boon to themselves, to economies and to societies. Many bosses and hr departments think productivity falls with age, but studies of truckmaking and insurance firms in Germany suggest older workers have, if anything, slightly above-average productivity—and that teams of workers from multiple generations are the most productive of all. Societies should be better off because public spending on health and pensions should be lower than expected, as people work longer and need less medical care.

青老年的崛起，不仅对他们自身有利，也会促进社会和经济体的发展。许多老板和人力资源部门人员认为随着年龄增加，人们生产力会下降。但是据德国的卡车制造公司和保险公司的研究显示，如果说年龄上升生产力会有所改变，那么青老年的生产力也是略高于平均值；而且由不同年龄组组成的团队，生产力最高。由于人们工作年限延长以及医疗开销减少，公共卫生和养老金支出都会低于预期，社会状况会变得更好。

But for all this to happen, three big things will have to change, under pressure from the yold themselves. The most important is public attitudes towards older people, and in particular the expectation that 60-somethings ought to be putting their feet up and quietly retiring into the background. Many companies discriminate against older workers by offering training only to younger ones, or by limiting part-time employment and job-sharing. The yold will demand that companies become more age-friendly and, in the process, help change attitudes towards ageing itself.

但是要想实现这一切，需要作出三大改变，这三大改变也是青老年群体自身的迫切要求。。最重要的一点是改变社会大众对老年人的态度，尤其是他们关于“60多岁的人应该停下脚步（退休），退居幕后”的观点。许多公司歧视年老的员工，只给年轻员工提供培训，或是限制兼职岗位和分担工作。青老年要求企业在年龄方面更加友好，并在此过程中改变人们对老龄化的态度。

Government policies will have to change, too. The retirement age in many rich countries is still below the age to which many people want to work. The effective retirement age (the age at which people actually leave the workforce) is usually even lower. Public policy makes retirement a cliff edge, when it should be a ramp.

政府也需要改变（调整政策）。许多富裕国家的退休年龄仍然低于许多人的意愿工作年龄。实际退休年龄（人们退出劳动力市场的实际年龄）通常更低。退休本应有个过渡期，但现有政策则是一刀切。

Third, higher numbers of healthy yold people will require drastic changes in health spending. Most diseases of ageing are best met with prevention and lifestyle changes. But only about 2-3% of most countries’ health-care spending goes on prevention. That will have to rise, because although the yold will constitute a bulge of comparative health and activity over the next decade, by 2030 they will hit 75—and enter a long period of decline for which few rich countries are ready.

第三，随着身体健康的青老年数量增加，医疗支出方面也应做出重大调整。应对大多数老年疾病最好的方法是预防和调整生活方式。但是在大多数国家，大约只有2%-3%医疗保健开支是用于预防。这一比例有待提高。因为尽管在未来10年里，相对健康和活跃的青老年会激增，但到2030年，这一群体年龄将达75岁，然后他们的身体将进入一个漫长的衰弱过程 。对此，很少有富裕国家能够应对。

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