2023，全球经济能走出高利率的泥潭吗？ | 经济学人社论（新年第一更）

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Leaders | After the storm

社论|风暴过后

英文部分选自经济学人20221224期社论版块

Leaders | After the storm

风暴过后

It would not be the first time. Markets have collapsed after most Fed meetings this year, as investors have been shaken by Mr Powell’s hawkish tone. In each of the five worst weeks for American stocks in 2022, shares plunged by about 5%. All of them took place immediately before or after a Fed meeting. As inflation, first unleashed by a fiscal stimulus, proved stickier than expected, the increasingly hawkish central bank meted out monster rate rises even as investors kept hoping that it might let up. When the stockmarket peaked in America on January 3rd, bond markets thought that the upper bound of the Fed’s policy rate of 0.25% would rise by just 0.75 percentage points by the end of the year. In the event, it stands at 4.5%.

这只是历史重新上演罢了。由于投资者对鲍威尔先生的鹰派语气感到震惊，今年大多数美联储议息会议后，市场都出现了崩盘。在 2022 年美国股市表现最差的五个星期中，每周股价均下跌约 5%，全部发生在美联储会议之前或之后。最初由财政刺激措施引发的通货膨胀比预期持续时间更长，尽管投资者一直希望央行放缓加息，但央行采取越来越强硬的立场，大肆加息。当美国股市在2022年1月3日见顶时，债券市场认为美联储0.25%的政策利率上限到年底只会上升75个基点，结果却达到了4.5%。

The fierce tightening of monetary policy was the trigger for much of the turbulence that rocked finance in 2022. The collapse in tech share prices was so violent that Meta has twice shed more than a quarter of its value in a single trading day. The rout in bond markets was so extreme that corporate issuance and loan markets seized up in the spring. British pension funds were thrown into turmoil in the autumn by moves in gilt prices, and the collapse in crypto revealed what American authorities are calling a “massive years-long fraud” at FTx, an exchange, perpetrated by Sam Bankman-Fried, a former wunderkind. On December 20th the Bank of Japan roiled markets by modifying its policy of capping long-term interest rates. Each case had its idiosyncrasies, but all were exposed when the era of free money came to an abrupt end.

2022年的大部分金融动荡都是由货币政策猛烈收紧触发的。科技股严重缩水，以致Meta股价两度在一个交易日内下跌逾四分之一。债券市场全线暴跌，以致企业债券发行系统和贷款市场都在春季陷入瘫痪。英国养老基金在秋季因金边债券价格波动而陷入混乱；币圈暴雷，一代“神童”萨姆·班克曼-弗里德(Sam Bankman-Fried)也陷入了泥潭，美国当局指班克曼-弗里德及其FTX交易平台涉嫌“长达数年的大规模欺诈”。12月20日，日本央行上调长期利率上限，引发了市场震动。上述事例各有其特殊之处，但当廉价货币时代戛然而止时，所有问题都暴露了出来。

Will things be calmer in 2023? Interest rates are higher across most of the rich world than they have been for more than 15 years, so much of the rate shock may seem to be safely in the past. Inflation appears to be abating, in America at least. Though many countries in Europe are still struggling with high energy costs, price increases seem to have slowed there, too. Perhaps the adjustment, though painful, is largely done.

2023年会少一点混乱，多一点平静吗？大多数发达国家利率都达到了过去15年来的最高水平，因此仿佛利率冲击大体上已经安然度过了。通货膨胀似乎正在走弱，至少在美国是如此。在欧洲，尽管许多国家仍苦于高昂的能源成本，但价格涨幅似乎也有所放缓。尽管调整的过程历经艰辛，但或许已基本完成。

Such thinking could well prove mistaken. For a start, a gulf remains between what the Fed says it will do and what investors expect from it. The central bank reckons it may have to raise interest rates above 5% in 2023, and leave them there. That does not tally with investors’ expectations. Despite Mr Powell’s warnings, they are betting on a shallower peak and continue to think that the first rate cut may come as soon as the summer.

这种想法很可能是错的。首先，美联储的承诺和投资者预期之间仍然存在差距。美联储预计，2023年将不得不提高利率至5%以上，并且维持这一水平。这与投资者的预期并不相符。尽管鲍威尔已发出警告，但投资者仍寄希望于加息幅度放缓，并继续相信首次降息将很快在夏天到来。

In short, policymakers and investors still differ over the most important questions. How sticky will inflation be? At what level will rates peak? And when will central bankers start to ease off?

简而言之，政策制定者和投资者在最重要的问题上仍然存在分歧。通胀粘性会有多高？利率将在什么水平见顶？央行行长们什么时候开始收手？

Another source of uncertainty is whether America will enter a recession and, if so, when. The Fed reckons that it may be spared, projecting slow growth of 0.4-1% in 2023, and inflation of around 2.9-3.5%. If recession does strike, investors will not be ready. Analysts say that profits could well grow by 7.6% in 2023, well above nominal gdp.

另一不确定因素取决于美国是否会进入经济衰退期，如果会，什么时候呢？美联储认为衰退可能不会到来，并预计2023年，美国经济会缓慢增长0.4%-1%，通胀水平会达到2.9%-3.5%。但如果美国真的进入衰退，投资者将会措手不及。分析家表示，2023年利润可能会增长7.6%，远高于名义国内生产总值。

Last, the effects of the rate shock are still working their way through to asset prices. So far, only the quickest and twitchiest asset markets, like stocks, bonds and crypto, have adjusted. Those moves are still being digested by financial institutions. Only in crypto have large firms been in real danger, with some lending platforms, exchanges and hedge funds going bust.

最后，利率冲击对资产价格带来的影响尚未结束。目前，仅仅只是像股票、债券和加密货币这样的反应最快、最敏感的资产市场做出了相应调整。各金融机构仍在消化这些调整带来的影响。只有加密货币领域的大公司才处于危机之中，一些借贷平台、交易所和对冲基金公司纷纷破产。

However, the interest-rate shock could yet expose cracks elsewhere in the financial system. And more pain is to come. Prices have yet to adjust in markets that are slower to mark down assets, as in private equity and property.

然而，利率冲击可能会暴露出金融体系其他方面的漏洞。更多的痛苦尚未到来。在私募和房地产等资产降价较慢的市场，价格尚未调整。

The Jay walk

时代交汇 混乱相随

The rate shock dominated financial markets in 2022. Little wonder that investors wish an end to it. Yet the big debates about inflation and interest rates remain unresolved; investors’ hopes for growth and profits look too rosy; and the effects of rate rises have yet to filter through to all corners of the financial system. Whatever investors choose to believe, the chaos of 2022 could well follow them into the new year. 

2022年，利率冲击主导了金融市场，所以投资者希望这种局面尽快结束也就不足为奇。然而，关于通货膨胀和利率的激烈辩论仍无定论，投资者对经济增长和利润的希望看起来过分乐观了，加息的影响尚未渗透到金融体系的方方面面。无论投资者相信与否，2022年的混乱将在新的一年常伴其身。

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