功勋CEO回归迪士尼，是挽狂澜于既倒，还是任大厦之将倾？| 经济学人社论

2022-11-30 02:11

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Leaders | Bob Iger’s encore

社论 | 鲍勃·艾格回归

英文部分选自经济学人20221119期社论版块

Leaders | Bob Iger’s encore

鲍勃·艾格回归

Disney brings back a star of the past. But its real problem is the script

迪士尼“昔日巨星”复出，但问题出在“剧本”

Hollywood is suffering from the brutal economics of streaming

流媒体一片红海，好莱坞风光不再

Film critics often complain that the box office is overrun with sequels. Now so are studios’ head offices. On November 20th Disney announced that Bob Iger, who ran the company for 15 highly successful years until he stepped down in 2020, would go back into the spotlight for a second act as chief executive. Bob Chapek, who lasted less than three years in the role and had presided over a 40% drop in Disney’s share price this year, was sent sloping back to his trailer.

影评人常常抱怨院线中的续集作品泛滥成灾，而现在各大制片公司内部也开始上演续集篇章。11月20日，迪士尼宣布鲍勃·艾格（Bob Iger）将再次出任首席执行官。在2020年卸任之前，他曾连续执掌迪士尼长达十五年，杰出的成就令人瞩目。而鲍勃·查佩克（Bob Chapek）任职不到三年就不得不黯然离场，且今年查佩克在任期间迪士尼股价暴跌超过40%。

As any producer knows, a good leading man can make all the difference. Mr Chapek turned out to be a b-lister; Mr Iger, who transformed Disney’s fortunes, is a megastar. But the creatives in Hollywood and the investors on Wall Street expecting a rapid turnaround at Disney should think again. The main problem is not at the top, but in the fundamental changes to the movie industry brought about by streaming, which have hurt every studio. It will take every bit of Mr Iger’s star power to turn the business back into a blockbuster

制片人都知道，片子怎么样，还得看由谁来主演。查佩克只能算得上是二线演员，而曾经改变迪士尼命运的艾格则是当之无愧的超级巨星。但是，寄希望于“换帅”来实现一夜之间改天换地的好莱坞创作人员和华尔街投资人应该三思。迪士尼的问题不在高层领导人，而在于流媒体行业给电影行业带来了根本性改变，其影响波及所有制片公司。因此，要想让迪士尼重返巅峰，艾格恐怕需要竭力施展其“明星魅力”。

Mr Chapek was pelted with rotten tomatoes from the beginning. The pandemic, which shut cinemas and theme parks, was hardly his fault. But he frequently fluffed his lines. Unlike Mr Iger, a sunny former weatherman who charmed actors and directors, Mr Chapek, who rose through Disney’s theme-parks division, annoyed Hollywood’s highly strung creatives, some of whom threatened to sue when their films went straight to streaming. He was no better at handling politicians. When Florida passed a law muzzling talk of sexuality and gender identity in classrooms, Mr Chapek at first took no position, then opposed it—managing to infuriate liberals and conservatives alike. Relations with investors soured; this month a poor set of earnings blindsided Wall Street. Disney’s stock rose sharply on news of Mr Iger’s return.

查佩克从一开始就饱受诟病。疫情导致电影院和主题乐园关停，这固然不是他的错。然而，查佩克经常说错“台词”。艾格曾担任气象播报员，开朗的气质很对导演和演员的胃口。与之相反，查佩克出身于迪士尼的主题乐园部门，得罪过执拗难搞的好莱坞创作人，有些创作人甚至威胁称，一旦他们的电影直接上线流媒体平台，就会提起诉讼。查佩克同样不擅长和政客打交道。在佛州通过禁止在课堂上谈论性取向和性别认同的法案后，查佩克一开始并未表态，之后又表示反对，这一举动将自由派和保守派一并得罪了。此外，迪士尼同投资方的关系恶化，本月，迪士尼发布的财报表现不佳，让华尔街措手不及。但随着艾格“重掌帅印”的消息传出，迪士尼的股价应声大涨。

Yet for the most part Mr Chapek was following the script left to him by Mr Iger, who had hand-picked him as his successor. The priority of both was to shovel premium content onto Disney+, the streaming service launched in 2019 under Mr Iger. The approach has paid off, winning Disney more streaming subscriptions even than Netflix, which entered the business 12 years earlier. But it has proved far less profitable than the theatrical and cable-tv industries that historically sustained Disney, along with its parks. Consumers can easily switch once they have binged on the latest series, meaning that ever more content is needed to keep them on board. Meanwhile, new rivals like Apple and Amazon have bottomless budgets. Last quarter Disney’s streaming division lost $1.5bn, twice as much as a year earlier.

然而，作为艾格亲选的接班人，查佩克其实大部分时候都是按照艾格留下的剧本行事。2019年，艾格推出流媒体服务平台“迪士尼+”。两位CEO都将向“迪士尼+”注入优质内容作为重中之重。这一思路效果不错，迪士尼流媒体订阅量比领先其12年进军流媒体的网飞还要多。然而，流媒体业务盈利能力远比不上戏剧和有线电视业务，这两项业务连同迪士尼乐园共同撑起了迪士尼的商业帝国。消费者一旦刷完某部最新的剧，就很容易换到另一个平台，这意味着要想保持用户黏性，就必须上线更多内容。与此同时，苹果、亚马逊等新晋竞争对手的预算没有上限。上个季度，迪士尼的流媒体业务亏损15亿美元，和一年前相比亏损额翻了一番。

These problems are being felt across Hollywood. Netflix has lost more than half its market value this year. Indeed, Disney is better placed than most of its rivals. For now Disney+ is subsidised by the still-profitable parks and cable networks (the latter fast declining). And the company expects its streaming business to break even in 2024. It is sure to be among the survivors of the streaming wars. For others things look dicier. Warner Bros Discovery told investors earlier this month that streaming was proving tougher than expected. nbcUniversal, part of Comcast, and Paramount Global are unlikely to survive in their current form. (Some speculate that they may even be swallowed by Disney—if Disney itself is not first swallowed by Apple.)

整个好莱坞都面临着此类问题。今年以来，网飞的市值就蒸发了一半有余。话说回来，迪士尼的处境，比大多数竞争对手还是好得多。“迪士尼+”是由仍能盈利的迪士尼乐园和有线电视业务补贴的，只不过有线电视业务正快速缩水。此外，迪士尼预计其流媒体业务到2024年将实现收支平衡。在这场流媒体之战中，“迪士尼+”定是幸存者之一，但对于其他对手而言，情况似乎更加危急。本月初，华纳兄弟探索告知投资人，其流媒体业务比预期更加艰难。美国康卡斯特NBC环球和派拉蒙环球则不大可能以目前的形式存活。据相关推测，它们可能会被迪士尼一同吞并（如果迪士尼没有先被苹果吞并的话）。

As households and advertisers tighten their belts, things will only get harder in Hollywood. Mr Chapek may not be the last corporate leading man to bite the dust as things worsen. Having a star chief executive can certainly help. But studios are in for disappointment if they think that a change at the top is going to alter the brutal reality of Hollywood’s new economics.

当平头百姓和广告商们都勒紧裤腰带，好莱坞的日子只会越发艰难。在这场行业寒冬中，查佩克也许不会是最后一个一败涂地的企业掌门人。有明星CEO坐镇，必能有所裨益。但若制片公司认为仅仅依靠“换帅”就能扭转好莱坞新经济局势下的残酷现实，最后势必会大失所望。

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