最“短命”的英国首相 | 经济学人社论

2022-11-02 02:11

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Leaders | The shortest term

最“短命”的英国首相

英文部分选自经济学人20221029期社论版块

Leaders | The shortest term

最“短命”的英国首相

Rishi Sunak’s promise of stability is a low bar for Britain

苏纳克承诺稳住局面，但对英国来说远远不够

Reasons to be cheerful are scant

形势不容乐观

The coronation of Rishi Sunak as Britain’s latest prime minister is at least a source of relief. In contrast to Boris Johnson, whose serial dishonesty led to him being turfed out of office in the summer, Mr Sunak can offer personal decency and a grasp of detail. After the fiscal recklessness of Liz Truss, whose disastrous tenure ended on October 25th, the country is now led by a former chancellor with a liking for sound money, who warned that her plans for unfunded tax cuts would lead to disaster. After three years of dishevelled bombast and a six-week spasm of revolutionary fervour, a period of wonkish orthodoxy beckons.

随着里希·苏纳克成为新任首相，英国至少迎来了喘息之机。和今夏因一系列丑闻而被迫下台的鲍里斯·约翰逊相比，苏纳克更为操行得体，也更注重细节。上一任首相利兹·特拉斯在财政政策方面鲁莽行事，于10月25日结束了其堪称灾难的任期。接着，前任英国财政大臣苏纳克成为了英国新的领导人，他倾向于维系币值稳定，曾警告称特拉斯无资金准备的减税政策将引发灾难性后果。邋里邋遢、只会大放厥词的约翰逊在任三年，过了一阵改革之瘾的特拉斯在任六周，而今英国终于迎来了一位书生气十足的正经首相。

The markets like what they see: gilt yields fell when Mr Johnson decided he could not pull off a remarkable comeback and withdrew from contention. Mr Sunak has retained the reassuringly level-headed figure of Jeremy Hunt as chancellor. It is good that Tory MPs managed to make their own choice rather than again handing the decision to the party membership. As well as relief, there is justified pride at the country’s first British-Asian leader.

当前形势正是市场所喜闻乐见的：约翰逊认为自己无法逆转局势，决定退出保守党领袖竞选，英国国债收益率随之大跌。胜选之后，苏纳克让冷静理智、令人放心的杰里米·亨特留任财政大臣。保守党议员终于能自行决策而不是再搞一次全党投票，这是好事。苏纳克的胜选除了让英国长舒一口气之外，还激发了英国国民对英国首位亚裔首相的自豪感，这倒也合情合理。

注释：

gilt：a bond issued by the government of the United Kingdom

But the sense of respite is overdone. Mr Sunak has good qualities but many flaws. The Conservatives know they need to unite but remain fractious. The relief is also damning. Competence ought to be a given, not an ambition. Even if his government provides stability, that is nowhere near enough. Productivity growth has disappointed for years; Britain is the only G7 economy still below pre-pandemic levels of output. Impoverished expectations lead to a more impoverished country.

但也不宜过于庆幸。苏纳克有很多优秀品质，但缺点也不少。保守党明知应该保持团结，事实上却分崩离析。这种宽慰感实际上也是一种变相的谴责。首相具备执政能力，这本不应是奢求，而是本分。纵使苏纳克政府带来了稳定，但仍远远不够。多年来，英国的生产率增长不尽人意。七国集团中，只有英国仍未恢复疫情前的生产水平。一个不再坚守高标准、严要求的英国只会愈发衰败。

Mr Sunak is regarded by those who have worked with him as a good administrator. His prescriptions for growth are broadly sensible: investment incentives, higher public spending on R&D and a proper skills agenda. But he is still inexperienced: he would not have become prime minister within seven years of becoming an MP if tests of ideological purity had not cleared much of the field for Brexiteers like him. The taboo that stops the Tories from thinking rationally about how to take advantage of Brexit is unlikely to end under him; it is ominous that a deeply thoughtless bill to get rid of all EU legislation by the end of 2023 continued to make its way through Parliament this week.

与苏纳克共事过的人都认为他是一名优秀管理者。他就促进经济增长提出的方案大体上是明智的，方案包括刺激投资、增加研发投入，以及采取恰当措施提升国民技能。但他毕竟经验不足，能在成为议员后的7年内就登上首相之位很大程度上得益于英国脱欧公投：在“脱欧”这场关于意识形态纯洁性的测试中，大量判断失误的党内大佬只能黯然退场。话题敏感让保守党人无法理性讨论如何从脱欧中获利，这一点不太可能在苏纳克时期有显著改观。在2023年底前废除所有欧盟立法这一极欠考虑的法案本周继续在议会闯关，这一消息不能不令人忧心。

注释：

1.skills agenda：参考文章“Sunak planning radical skills reform to tackle low productivity”https://www.building.co.uk/news/sunak-planning-radical-skills-reform-to-tackle-low-productivity/5120145.article

2.关于英国脱欧的报道：《苏纳克在混乱中上台，标志英国“脱欧论”终结》https://mbd.baidu.com/newspage/data/landingsuper?third=baijiahao&baijiahao_id=1747791727905980571&wfr=spider&c_source=kunlun&p_tk=3138Ek3SQuwK%2BVN%2BNlNMhZRaGQLpEnrvYR3UxuhzRYfpVdY%2FwSWoQM%2FHRfxjluC4BOirQTf17TrFl9AFZHfmSGxGHe5ShIYmzOcHpjiQuTU9s7e8CwMRRydR2yLBxd%2B74UTYpvw9CnW%2FoTPD42zyfJr5vg%3D%3D&p_timestamp=1667032854&p_sign=cf107e8bf07fc168864424873a6b528f&p_signature=5c79d5bf5a42cebedbeeacb3d607735a&__pc2ps_ab=3138Ek3SQuwK%2BVN%2BNlNMhZRaGQLpEnrvYR3UxuhzRYfpVdY%2FwSWoQM%2FHRfxjluC4BOirQTf17TrFl9AFZHfmSGxGHe5ShIYmzOcHpjiQuTU9s7e8CwMRRydR2yLBxd%2B74UTYpvw9CnW%2FoTPD42zyfJr5vg%3D%3D|1667032854|5c79d5bf5a42cebedbeeacb3d607735a|cf107e8bf07fc168864424873a6b528f

During the summer leadership campaign against Ms Truss he conspicuously dodged the hard choices around planning and housebuilding that are required to unlock growth. He was quickly bounced into making promises of his own to cut taxes. He has a tin ear: a row over the tax status of his wife, an heiress who saved herself millions while Mr Sunak was running the country’s accounts, seemed to take him by surprise. He also has a penchant for bad policies.

开启经济增长，需就规划和住房建设作出艰难抉择，然而苏纳克今年夏天与特拉斯角逐党魁时堂而皇之地回避了这些问题。很快，他自身也被迫作出了减税的承诺。他的妻子是印度一位亿万富翁的女儿，在他执掌国家财政大权期间得以成功避税数百万。关于妻子税务状况的争议，他似乎后知后觉，始料未及。此外，他还对一些糟糕的政策情有独钟。

注释：

1.tin ear: a deafened or insensitive ear

2.bounce sb into sth: ( BrE ) to make sb do sth without giving them enough time to think about it 追逼（或催逼）别人做某事

As for the party he leads, talk of Tory unity is wildly premature. MPs did coalesce around Mr Sunak, but picking him over Mr Johnson and Penny Mordaunt is hardly the stuff of Solomon. The fissures in the party run deep and in many directions. The new prime minister is still regarded with suspicion by some for his role in bringing down Mr Johnson. Members of the Eurosceptic right are drawing lines in the sand over Northern Ireland’s trading arrangements with the European Union. The reappointment of Suella Braverman, a hardline Brexiteer, as home secretary, less than a week after she was forced to resign for breaching the ministerial code, is a clear victory for expediency over ability. Big tents are also for circuses.

对于他所领导的保守党来说，谈论党内团结还为时尚早。议员们确实联合起来支持苏纳克，但选择支持他而不是约翰逊或彭妮·莫当特也难以言及所罗门王的智慧之选。党内在众多方向存在重大分歧。这位新首相把约翰逊赶下台时的角色站位，仍让一些党内人士心存疑忌。疑欧派右翼成员明确了自己的立场：北爱尔兰和欧盟签署贸易协定已经是他们能接受的最大让步了。强硬脱欧派苏埃拉•布雷弗曼因违反“大臣守则”而被迫辞职，但不到一周后就再次被任命为内政大臣，这显然是权宜之计，而不是因为她真的能力超群。马戏团的帐篷下小丑肆意表演，政坛的穹顶之下同样是三教九流，鱼龙混杂。

注释：

1.To draw a line in the sand is a figure of speech meaning ‘to create or declare an artificial boundary and imply that crossing it will cause trouble.’ It means you are setting a boundary, or limits. It is based on the idea of literally making a mark in sand to show someone they cannot move across it. Example: He drew a line in the sand by giving his roommate an ultimatum about his sloppiness – he had to start cleaning up after himself or move out. He draws a line in the sand when it comes to online privacy. It means his online privacy is very important to him, and having it violated is not acceptable.

2.tent和circus的原意：https://classic.circushistory.org/History/Tent.htm

And this is before the real pain bites. On November 17th Mr Hunt is due to lay out a medium-term plan that will combine tax rises and spending cuts. Although Ms Truss’s tax cuts have been systematically undone and the fall in gilt yields has helped bring down the government’s debt-interest costs, a £30bn-40bn ($34bn-46bn, or 1-1.3% of GDP) fiscal hole remains to be filled. Whatever Mr Sunak does, the coming months will be a grim saga of high prices and rising interest rates, falling living standards and uncertainty over future energy bills, widespread industrial action and creaking public services. His personal wealth, his Davos-man aura and the manner of his arrival in office are obvious lightning-rods for voter discontent. If Tory MPs become convinced that they are doomed to heavy defeat in the next election, the incentives to toe the party line will weaken again.

真正的难关还未到来。11月17日，亨特将发布一项关于增税节流的中期计划。尽管特拉斯的减税政策已得到系统性的纠正，且英国国债收益率下降降低了其借债成本，但300-400亿英镑（约合340-460亿美元，占英国GDP的1-1.3%）的财政缺口仍待填补。无论苏纳克采取何种举措，接下来几个月都将面临一系列严峻问题：物价上涨、利率上升、生活水平下降、未来能源开支难料、罢工大范围爆发以及公共服务运转不良。苏纳克的个人财富、商界精英光环以及上台方式，显然会成为选民表达不满的活靶子。如果保守党议员确信他们在下次选举中必然惨败，那么遵循党派路线的动力将再次减弱。

注释：

1.Davos Man：a stereotyped figure of a typical participant of the World Economic Forum held in Davos every year — rich and powerful, perhaps out of touch, but most of all representative of the global elite.https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/19/who-are-davos-man-and-davos-woman.html

2.If you say that someone is a lightning rod for something, you mean that they attract that thing to themselves. 招引...的人 • He is a lightning rod for controversy. 他是个富有争议的人物.

3.toe the line ( NAmE also also toe the mark ) to say or do what sb in authority tells you to say or do, even if you do not share the same opinions, etc. 顺从当局（或集体）；遵循…路线 • to toe the party line 遵循党的路线

Another bout of Tory infighting would make the case for an early general election unarguable. If the malcontents stay quiet, the Sunak government may usher in a period of calm. A credible fiscal plan would mean lower interest rates than would otherwise have been the case. Thoughtful policies on skills and investment, two of the big platforms for economic growth, could make a real difference. In the mid-1990s John Major and Ken Clarke acted as responsible stewards of the economy after a disastrous brush with the financial markets, and even though heavy defeat beckoned for the Conservatives at the next election. If it is Mr Sunak’s fate to emulate them, that would now be counted by many as a job well done.

如果保守党再次发生内斗，那么提前举行大选便是板上钉钉了。假如不满者保持沉默，苏纳克政府可能会迎来一段平静时期。可靠的财政政策将降低利率；在技能提升和投资这两大有望提振经济的领域采取审慎的政策，也可能会起到切实作用。上世纪90年代中期，金融市场遭遇重创后，约翰•梅杰和肯•克拉克尽职尽责地担负起国家经济守护人的角色，尽管保守党可能会在之后的选举中遭遇惨败。或许历史会重演，苏纳克连任无望，但只要他能像上述二人一样担负起振兴英国经济的重任，也算是履职出色了。

This is a tragedy in itself. Expectations have been so reduced that not imploding is seen as the mark of a grown-up. Ms Truss is not responsible for all that ails Britain. The dysfunction in government, the years of insipid growth, the inability to talk honestly about the costs of Brexit and the failings of the National Health Service—these problems all have deep roots. But she still seems unaware of how badly things went. She wanted to arrest declinist talk about Britain; under her, Britain became an object of ridicule. She is a strong contender for the title of Britain’s worst prime minister. On a damage-done-per-day basis, she has no peers.

这一切本就很悲哀。英国国民的期望值已经大大降低，政府只要没有崩溃就被视为成熟稳健了。诚然，特拉斯并不是英国所有症结的罪魁祸首。政府无能，经济多年来增长乏力，政客不愿开诚布公地讨论脱欧的代价，国家医疗服务体系存在缺陷，这些问题都根深蒂固。但特拉斯似乎并未意识到事态的严重程度。她企图压制唱衰英国的论调，但在她的领导下，英国却沦为了笑柄。她很有可能成为英国有史以来最糟糕的首相。若是按照每天造成的损失来算，无人能出其右。

Heaven can wait

上错天堂投错胎

Mr Sunak inherits an economy whose indicators are all flashing red. Instead of a jolt to growth from lower taxes, the tax burden is rising and the public services are set to deteriorate further. With memories of cartoon radicalism still fresh (cut taxes, stand back, self-immolate), all forms of unorthodoxy have become less palatable. But Britain needs more than stability. To break out of its low-growth rut, it also needs change: a bolder approach to building, a reimagined relationship with the EU and meaningful devolution of power to local authorities. Mr Sunak may be able to restore calm. Further sclerosis is likely to be the price.

苏纳克面对的是一个基本盘千疮百孔的英国。寄希望于减税刺激经济的计划非但没有成功，反而加重了未来的税务负担，公共服务也会进一步恶化。空有减税的口号，却没有切实可行的计划，无奈看着减税计划和自己的首相之位一同殉了道——这个国家刚刚经历过一场雷声大雨点小的“激进革新主义”，任何形式的非正统做法现在都难有立足之地。但是英国需要的不仅仅是稳定，它需要变革以应对持续低迷的经济，需要大刀阔斧地进行建设，需要重构与欧盟的关系，需要将权力切实下放到地方政府。苏纳克也许能为英国带来一时的安宁，但代价就是，在体制僵化的下坡路上，这个国家或将越陷越深。

翻译组：

Trista，女，暴富不是梦想，是未来的现实

Mai，男，经济学博士，世界那么大，我想活得久一点

Rex，男，集书狂魔，经学钢粉，总觉得24小时不够用

校对组：

Iris，博物馆小可爱

Desmond，你有光，世界就不会黑暗

Francis，一笔一口，谈笑有鸿儒，往来无白丁

Lora，一只庸俗的骡，一只脱离了高级趣味的骡

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