欧洲要担心极右翼的意大利吗？ | 经济学人社论

2022-10-05 02:10

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Leaders | Should Europe worry?

社论 | 欧洲要担心极右翼的意大利吗？

英文部分选自经济学人20220924社论版块

Leaders | Should Europe worry?

社论 | 欧洲要担心极右翼的意大利吗？

How afraid should Europe be of Giorgia Meloni?

欧洲之怖——乔吉亚·梅洛尼

Italy’s next leader will be constrained by politics, markets and money

政局不稳、市场动荡、经济低迷，意大利下一任领导人处境艰难

Unless the polls are dramatically mistaken, on September 25th Italians will elect the most right-wing government in their country’s post-war history. A three-party alliance is expected to win more than 60% of the seats in parliament; the Brothers of Italy (FDI) looks set to dominate the trio, and its leader, Giorgia Meloni, to take over as prime minister.

除非选票统计出现离谱大错，意大利将于9月25日迎来二战后最右翼政府。由意大利兄弟党（FDI）、联盟党和意大利力量党组成的政党联盟预计将赢得逾六成议会席位。目前看来，意大利兄弟党在三党联盟中得票最多，该党党魁乔吉亚·梅洛尼（Giorgia Meloni）成为总理已是板上钉钉。

注释：

本文背景：http://m.news.cn/2022-09/27/c_1129036190.htm

set adj. ~ for sth, ~ to do sth：likely to do sth; ready for sth or to do sth 有可能的；做好准备的 • Interest rates look set to rise again. 看样子利率又要提高了。 • The team looks set for victory. 看来这个队能赢。

Liberals shudder. The FDI has its roots in neo-fascism. In speeches Ms Meloni hammers away at illegal immigrants and “woke ideology”. She told American conservatives earlier this year that “our whole identity is under attack”, and has accused the European Union of being complicit in ethnic “replacement”. She defends and admires Viktor Orban, Hungary’s populist prime minister. Ms Meloni’s elevation would follow the Sweden Democrats’ success last week in becoming that country’s second-largest party, with a probable say in the next government. Marine Le Pen in France took 41% of the vote in her race against Emmanuel Macron in April. All these are signs of a powerful shift in the European balance towards the nationalist hard right. Fed up with the failures of the established parties, voters are plumping for the untried and untested.

这让自由主义者瑟瑟发抖，因为兄弟党植根于新法西斯主义。梅洛尼多次在演讲中抨击非法移民，反对“觉醒意识形态”。今年，她向美国保守派表示“我们的身份正遭受威胁”，并指责欧盟多国串通一气干着民族“更替”的勾当。她还对匈牙利民粹主义总理欧尔班·维克托（Viktor Orban）大加赞赏并为其辩护。就在上周，在梅洛尼当选意总理前，瑞典民主党跃升为议会第二大党，很有可能在下届政府中拥有更多话语权。法国“国民阵线”领袖玛丽娜·勒庞（Marine Le Pen）在四月同马克龙大选决选中斩获41%选票。这些迹象都表明，欧洲的天平将向民族主义强硬的右翼势力明显倾斜。选民们不堪忍受现执政党的各种败绩，转而将选票投给了既无经验也未受过考验的政党。

注释：

hammer away at sth: to work hard in order to finish or achieve sth; to keep repeating sth in order to get the result that you want 努力干；孜孜以求

The woke ideology is a concept that believes in the importance of being aware of the effects of oppression and social injustice. The woke ideology seeks to challenge the status quo and improve the lives of marginalized people. https://www.australiaunwrapped.com/what-is-the-woke-ideology/

complicit adj. /kəmˈplɪsɪt/ ~ (in/with sb/sth) involved with other people in sth wrong or illegal （与某人或某事）同谋的，串通的 • Several officers were complicit in the cover-up. 几名军官串通一气隐瞒真相。

And liberals are not the only ones to worry. Flinty bankers fret that Ms Meloni will tangle with the EU, go soft on reform and lose control of Italy’s mountainous debt stock ($2.7trn, or over 150% of GDP). The FDI has no experience of government (it was founded in 2012, and took just 4% of the votes in the election of 2018), and its expected coalition will include the parties led by Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini, two untrustworthy men with a record of tricky relations with Brussels. Both have plenty of reasons to clash with Ms Meloni, who will have stolen a crown each thinks should be his. In a country that has had 30 prime ministers and more than twice that many governments since 1946, this is not a recipe for stability.

忧心忡忡的不只是自由主义者。冷酷的银行家担心梅洛尼会和欧盟发生冲突，无法将改革贯彻到底，无法控制意大利的巨额债务（高达2.7万亿美元，为意大利GDP的1.5倍以上）。兄弟党从未执政过，该党成立于2012年，在2018年意大利大选中仅得到4%的选票。此外，预期和兄弟党合作的政党——意大利力量党和联盟党分别由西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼（Silvio Berlusconi）和马泰奥·萨尔维尼（Matteo Salvini）领导，而这两位党魁都不值得信任，且与欧盟的关系一向复杂。不仅如此，此二人都有充分的理由与梅洛尼发生冲突，因为他们认为梅洛尼偷走了本属于自己的总理之位。1946年以来，意大利组建了60多届政府，产生了30位总理，这三个政党联合执政可不是国泰民安的好苗头。

注释：

Brussels：此处布鲁塞尔指代欧盟。欧盟没有官方总部，也没有计划选择任何一个成员国作为总部，但由于比利时首都布鲁塞尔拥有许多主要欧盟机构，被公认为是欧盟事实上的总部。来源：维基百科- Brussels and the European Union。

How anxious should these very different camps be? The risks are obvious. But there are also reasons to be cool-headed. First, consider social policy. FDI members are strongly committed to Catholic values, and many would like to turn the clock back. But Ms Meloni has clearly stated that she has no plans to strike down the law that permits abortion, which has been in place since 1978 and enjoys solid support; an attempt to repeal it was rejected in a referendum in 1981 by nearly 70% of those voting. Much the same is true for gay rights. Gay civil unions have been permitted since 2016 and, although there is no consensus favouring gay marriage, there is also no urge to scrap the partnerships. A crackdown on illegal migration is surely to be expected, but when Mr Salvini was last in government, between 2018 and 2019, he promised the same, only to find that the obligations of international law and EU rules imposed limits on what he could do.

这些分歧极大的阵营有多令人焦虑呢？危机显而易见，但也无需过分恐慌。首先要考虑社会政策。兄弟党成员强烈信奉天主教价值观，许多人希望复兴旧式价值准则。但梅洛尼已明确表示，她不打算推翻堕胎许可法案，该法案自1978年开始实施，群众基础深厚。1981年曾举行公投决定是否废除该法，结果将近70%的人投了反对票。同性恋权利也是如此。2016年，意大利同性恋民事结合法案获得通过。此后，虽然意大利社会在支持同性恋婚姻方面尚未达成共识，但也无人敦促废除这项法案。梅洛尼上台后势必打击非法移民，萨尔维尼在其副总理任期内（2018-2019年）也曾作出同样承诺，却因不得不服从国际法和欧盟规则而缚手缚脚。

The reality is that Italy is constrained in many ways, not least through the roles played by its indirectly elected president and the head of its constitutional court, a pair of impeccable centrists. Similar constraints will limit the amount of damage to the EU that Ms Meloni could cause, even if she wanted to. It is true that, like Mr Salvini, she has in the past talked about scrapping the euro or even leaving the bloc itself. But both of them have grasped that membership of the EU is popular in Italy, where 71% of people support the euro. Ms Meloni has already committed herself to follow the reform plan drawn up by her predecessors and approved by the European Commission, which comes with a handy €200bn ($198bn) or so of pandemic-recovery money. She does say she will seek some changes to it, but in agreement with the commission; good luck with that.

实际上，意大利的政治体制有很强的制衡机制，政府会受制于总统（间接选举产生）和宪法法院院长，而这两人是坚定的中间派。在类似的制约下，梅洛尼难以重创欧盟，即便她有意如此。的确，同萨尔维尼一样，梅洛尼也曾谈及废除欧元，甚至退出欧盟。但两人都明白，意大利人民支持留在欧盟，71%的民众都赞成使用欧元。梅洛尼早已承诺将遵循历任总理制定并经欧盟委员会批准的改革计划，其中包括从欧盟迅速获得约2000亿欧元（合1980亿美元）的疫后复苏基金。她的确说过会稍微调整改革计划，但前提是不与欧盟委员会相左，既然这样就只能祝她好运了。

A bust-up would turn off the supply of money. It would also mean that Italy would become ineligible for support under the European Central Bank’s new bond-buying instrument. It would cause a crisis in the markets, and Ms Meloni knows it. Insiders say she is trying to find a reassuring banker to serve as her new finance minister and a respected pro-European to be her foreign minister. Reassurance is Ms Meloni’s mission, and in this she is different from Mr Salvini, an unreliable firebrand. The fact that she is the one who has risen to the top of the rightists’ pile is the best bit of news in a disquieting situation.

一旦撕破脸，意大利不但无法获取复苏基金，也将无法获得欧洲央行新购债工具的支持。这将导致市场危机，梅洛尼对此心知肚明。内部人士表示，梅洛尼正在物色可靠的银行家来担任财政部长、有声望的亲欧人士担任外交部长。梅洛尼承诺要稳发展、不折腾，这与萨尔维尼大不相同，后者极不可靠，只会煽风点火。梅洛尼一跃成为右派的头号人物，这不失为当前动荡局势中最令人欣慰的消息。

注释：

“新购债工具”：自十多年前的欧元危机以来，意大利、希腊和西班牙等国一直在与高额债务作斗争。欧洲中央银行决定将19个欧元国家的利率提高0.5%以抑制通胀，意大利等国家可能会深陷债务陷阱，不得不借钱来支付贷款利息。希腊、意大利、葡萄牙和西班牙的债务是欧元区最高的，政府债券的风险溢价迅速上升，这是信贷市场信心动摇的一个迹象。市场对意大利的信心最低，近几个月来，意大利的经济形势加上国内政治不确定性迅速推高了该国政府债券的风险溢价。因此欧洲央行启动了一项新的购买支持计划，可以“无限”地从负债国家购买政府债券，以消除货币政策的影响。例如，如果需要压低风险溢价，欧洲央行可以购买意大利政府债券，从而降低意大利的融资成本。财政管理良好的欧元国家，例如德国和芬兰，必须帮助其他欧元国家，例如国家预算出现赤字的南欧国家。欧元区内的紧张局势将通过购买政府债券来控制。

来源：商务部网站；新浪财经

There is one more indubitable plus to Italy’s probable new prime minister. Unlike Mr Salvini and Mr Berlusconi, or indeed Ms Le Pen and Mr Orban, Ms Meloni is no fan of Vladimir Putin. Since the invasion of Ukraine, she has been a steadfast and strong voice of support for Ukraine and NATO.

对或将就任意大利总理的梅洛尼来说，还有一个毋庸置疑的加分点。不同于贝卢斯科尼和萨尔维尼两位党魁、甚至法国右翼领导人勒庞和匈牙利民粹主义总理欧尔班，梅洛尼不支持普京。自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，她一直坚定不移地支持乌克兰和北约。

Nonetheless, Ms Meloni faces daunting odds. Italy’s economy is unproductive and hampered by structural, cultural and demographic problems. Since 2000, GDP per person has not grown—as it must if Italy is to deal with its stock of debt. Almost a quarter of young Italians are not in employment, education or training, by far the worst level in the EU. The EU-backed reform plan is meant to help correct this, but the turnaround will be long and slow, if it happens at all. It will need to be pushed for a decade or more, not the 17 months managed by Mario Draghi, the outgoing prime minister.

尽管如此，梅洛尼也面临着艰巨的挑战。意大利的社会生产力低下，经济受到产业结构、文化和人口等因素制约。人均GDP自2000年起就再无增长，然而如果意政府要处理好巨额债务就必须提升人均GDP。意大利近25%的青年既无工作也未求学或接受职业培训，这一数字目前在欧盟处于垫底水平。欧盟支持的改革计划旨在扭转这一形势，即便真的能成功，过程也绝非一蹴而就。推动这一改革至少需要10年，而即将离任的总理马里奥·德拉吉（Mario Draghi）正式当政仅17个月，这时间明显是不够的。

Is Ms Meloni the right person to do the pushing? Nothing in her speeches suggests that she understands the need for competitiveness. In fact, she favours sweeping nationalisation and protectionism, though she will be unable to achieve either.

那么，梅洛尼是推动这一改变的合适人选吗？她并未在演讲中表明自己了解保有竞争力的必要性，事实上，她主张实行全面的民族主义和保护主义，尽管这两个目标她都无法实现。

Hope, but plan

抱有希望，早做打算

What happens if the economy goes wrong? After years of interest rates being set at or below zero, the ECB raised them by 0.75 percentage points this month. Further increases are forecast for this year. If the going gets really tough, will Ms Meloni work calmly with the EU and the ECB, or flip to full populist mode, as Greece did a decade ago? An embattled leader, with Mr Salvini snapping at her heels, who tried to shore up her popularity by blaming the EU for Italy’s problems would be a very different prospect from the Ms Meloni on offer now. Yet here, too, is a sliver of comfort. Ms Meloni needs the EU because Italy cannot shoulder its debt without help from Brussels. Europe must calmly accept Italy’s democratic decision to elect Ms Meloni and help her succeed, while privately warning her how damaging to both Italy and the EU a falling-out would be.

如果意大利经济崩坏会如何呢？意大利在经历了数年的零利率甚至负利率后，欧洲央行本月将利率提高了0.75个百分点，预计今年还会继续加息。如果经济振兴进展不顺，梅洛尼能冷静地与欧盟和欧洲央行合作吗？还是会像十年前希腊那样，完全转向民粹主义呢？前有经济重重困难、后有萨尔维尼步步紧逼，腹背受敌的梅洛尼又会通过甩锅欧盟来争取民众支持，这将是一个和当下截然不同的形象。然而现实也尚存一丝安慰：梅洛尼仍然需要欧盟的支持，否则解决不了债务问题。梅洛尼通过民选获胜已成既定事实，欧洲其他国家只得冷静接受，并助力其领导意大利前行，同时不忘私下警告她，意大利若和欧盟闹翻，结果只会两败俱伤。

注释：

shore up: to support (something) or keep (something) from falling by placing something under or against it

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