活不过生菜的特拉斯 | 经济学人社论（连夜加更）

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Leaders | Turmoil in Britain

英文部分选自经济学人20221022期社论版块

Leaders | Turmoil in Britain

Welcome to Britaly

欢迎来到“英大利”

A country of political instability, low growth and subordination to the bond markets

一个政治不稳定、增长低迷、受制于债券市场的国家

Editor’s note: On October 20th Liz Truss resigned as leader of Britain’s Conservative Party and thus will soon depart as prime minister. The party will hold another leadership contest, its third in as many years, to pick her successor within seven days.

编者注：10月20日，伊丽莎白·特拉斯辞去了英国保守党党首的职务，将很快卸任首相一职。保守党党将在七天内举行三年内的第三次党首竞选，选出特拉斯的继任者。

In 2012 liz truss and Kwasi Kwarteng, two of the authors of a pamphlet called “Britannia Unchained”, used Italy as a warning. Bloated public services, low growth, poor productivity: the problems of Italy and other southern European countries were also present in Britain. Ten years later, in their botched attempt to forge a different path, Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng have helped make the comparison inescapable. Britain is still blighted by disappointing growth and regional inequality. But it is also hobbled by chronic political instability and under the thumb of the bond markets. Welcome to Britaly. 

2012年，伊丽莎白·特拉斯（Elizabeth Truss）和夸西·科沃滕（Kwasi Kwarteng）共同参与了《解放的不列颠》（Britannia Unchained）的写作，书中以意大利作为警示：公共事业过于臃肿、增长低迷、生产力低下，这些困扰着意大利等南欧国家的问题，英国同样未能幸免。十年之后，两位曾试图带领英国走出这条歧路，却未能得偿所愿，而如今，将英国和意大利进行对比成了一个无法逃避的问题。经济增长令人失望和地区不平等这两个长期问题始终未能解决，然而，英国现在还为政治长期不稳定、债券市场影响力过大所拖累。欢迎来到“英大利”。

The comparison between the two countries is inexact. Between 2009 and 2019 Britain’s productivity growth rate was the second-slowest in theg7, but Italy’s was far worse. Britain is younger and has a more competitive economy. Italy’s problems stem, in part, from being inside the European club; Britain’s, in part, from being outside. Comparing the bond yields of the two countries is misleading. Britain has lower debt, its own currency and its own central bank; the market thinks it has much less chance of defaulting than Italy. But if Britaly is not a statistical truth, it captures something real. Britain has moved much closer to Italy in recent years in three ways. 

对英国和意大利进行比较并不恰当。从2009年到2019年，英国的生产力增速列7国集团中的倒数第二，然而意大利比英国还低很多。英国人口更年轻，经济也更有竞争力。意大利的部分问题正是源于自己身处欧盟这座“围城”之内，而英国的一些问题则是因为自己处于“围城”之外。对英国和意大利的债券收益率进行比较也是靠不住的。英国债务更少，有自己的货币和央行；市场认为英国债务违约的可能性比意大利低很多。也许从统计意义上，说英国沦为“英大利”还为时尚早，然而事实上英国在以下三个方面已经和意大利越来越接近了。

First, and most obviously, the political instability that used to mark Italy out has fully infected Britain. Since the end of the coalition government in May 2015, Britain has had four prime ministers (David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Ms Truss), as has Italy. The countries are likely to stay in lockstep in the near future.Giorgia Meloni is expected to be sworn in as the new prime minister in Rome; Ms Truss’s future could not be more precarious. Ministerial longevity is now counted in months: since July Britain has had four chancellors of the exchequer; the home secretary resigned this week after just 43 days in office. Trust in politics has declined as chaos has increased: 50% of Britons trusted the government in 2010 and less than 40% do now. The gap with Italy on this measure has shrunk from 17 percentage points to four. 

首先，最明显的是，意大利过去标志性的政治不稳定问题也完全成了英国的顽疾。

自2015年5月（保守党）在大选中获胜得以独自组阁以来，已有4位首相执政英国（卡梅伦、特蕾莎·梅、鲍里斯·约翰逊和特拉斯），同期意大利也经历了4任总理。这两个国家很可能在不远的将来都将以相近的频率更换政府首脑。乔治亚·梅洛尼（Giorgia Meloni）将在罗马宣誓就任意大利新总理；特拉斯的未来也可谓风雨飘摇（这篇文章的写作时间应该早于特拉斯辞职）。政府各部门大臣的任期都只能以月来计算：仅7月来英国就换了3次财政大臣；内政大臣就任仅43天就于本周辞职。混乱的局面也降低了英国人民对政治的信任度：英国民众对政府的信任率已经从2010年的50%下滑至不足40%，领先意大利的差距已从17个百分点缩小至4个百分点。

Second, just as Italy became the plaything of the bond markets during the euro-zone crisis, so they are now visibly in charge of Britain. The Conservatives have spent the past six years chasing the dream of enhanced British sovereignty; instead they have lost control. Silvio Berlusconi was removed from power in Italy in 2011 after falling foul of Brussels and Berlin; Mr Kwarteng was kicked out of his job as chancellor of the exchequer because of the market reaction to his package of unfunded tax cuts. Traders in gilts are the arbiters of British government policy at the moment. Jeremy Hunt, the new chancellor, has eviscerated most of the tax cuts and rightly decided to redesign the government’s energy-price guarantee scheme from April 2023. The decisions he must take to fill the remaining hole in the public finances are being designed with markets in mind. 

其次，正如意大利在欧债危机期间被债券市场玩弄一样，英国如今显然也受制于债券市场。保守党在过去六年间一直希望加强英国的主权，现实却与之相反，他们已失去了（对英国的）控制。意大利前总理西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼（Silvio Berlusconi）与欧盟及德国不睦，并于2011年辞职。英国原财政大臣夸西·科沃滕（Kwasi Kwarteng）因提出无资金支持的减税政策引发金融市场动荡，已被解除职务。英国债市的交易员眼下就是英国政府政策的仲裁人。新任财政大臣杰里米·亨特（Jeremy Hunt）取消了大部分（科沃滕提出的）减税政策。他还决定重新设计明年4月后的能源限价计划，这一做法非常正确。在设计修填补公共财政“窟窿”的必要政策时，亨特考虑了市场的反应。

注释：

1. fall foul of: Cambridge Dictionary - (sth.) to break a rule or law, especially without intending to; (sb.) to have a disagreement with someone. 触犯、与……冲突

2. Brussels: 外文报道中常用城市名代指国家，此处布鲁塞尔应代指欧盟而非比利时。欧盟没有官方总部，也没有计划选择任何一个成员国作为总部，但由于比利时首都布鲁塞尔拥有许多主要欧盟机构，被公认为是欧盟事实上的总部。来源：维基百科- Brussels and the European Union

3. gilts: 金边债券，即国债。英国自1693年开始发行金边债券，因当时所发行公债票面有金黄色的边而得名，后来金边债券一词泛指所有中央政府发行的债券。来源：维基百科-金边债券/ Gilt-edged securities

Just as Italians fret about lo spread between benchmark government bonds and Bunds, so Britons have had a crash course in how gilt yields affect everything from the cost of their mortgage to the safety of their pensions. In Italy institutions like the presidency and the central bank have long acted as bulwarks against politicians. So it is now in Britain. By ending its emergency bond-buying on October 14th, the Bank of England forced the government to reverse course faster. There is no room for Mr Hunt to disagree with the Office for Budget Responsibility, a fiscal watchdog. These institutions were constraints on elected mps before, but now the chains bind tightly and visibly. 

也正如意大利人无比忧心意大利国债和德国国债之间的利差，英国人也从抵押贷款成本和养老金安全问题中迅速学到了国债收益率是如何影响生活方方面面的。在意大利，总统府和中央银行等机构长期以来都扮演着制衡政客的角色，英国如今也是如此。通过在10月14日结束紧急购债计划，英国央行迫使政府加速改弦更张。亨特也没有与财政监督机构预算责任办公室（OBR）争论的空间。这些机构以前是对国会议员的制约，但现在这些链条明显紧密捆绑在一起。

注释：

1. lo spread: 利差，指意大利国债和德国国债之间的利差。

Italians calls "Lo Spread" or the difference between Italian borrowing costs and German borrowing costs. BTPs are Italian bonds, and Bunds are German bonds. 英文来源-Insider；B站视频-什么是利差

2. crash course: Britannica Dictionary definition - a class in which a lot of information is taught in a short period of time. 速成班

3. MP: member of parliament，国会议员。

Third, Britain’s low-growth problem has become more entrenched. Political stability is a precondition of growth, not a nice-to-have. Italian governments struggle to get anything done; the same is true of brief administrations in Britain. When changes of leader and government are always round the corner, pantomime and personality replace policy. Mr Johnson was nicknamed “Borisconi” by some; by continuing to hover on the political scene, he may make this comparison sharper still. 

第三，英国经济低增长的问题越发难解。政治稳定是经济发展的必要前提，而非可有可无。意大利政府难以真正完成任何事情，如今屁股还没坐热的英国政府同样如此。在一个政府和领导人如“走马灯”般频繁更迭的时代，政策反而被掩盖在了政治闹剧和领导人的个性之下。一些人将前首相鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)比作意大利前总理西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼，戏称为“鲍里斯科尼”，而鲍里斯还在政治舞台上徘徊，他待得越久，大家越会觉得他像贝卢斯科尼。

注释：

1.nice-to-have: Quora - “Nice-to-have” as a noun is often used when expressing an optional requirement or even a wishful thinking. 最好具备，可有可无

2. pantomime: 哑剧。 

And although fiscal discipline should calm the bond markets, it will not by itself increase growth. Mr Hunt is racing to balance the books as part of a medium-term fiscal plan to be unveiled on October 31st. Saving money by spending less on infrastructure would be fine for gilt yields but is not going to help the economy grow. There is little room for swingeing cuts to public services. Better to phase out the “triple lock”, a generous formula for raising state pensions, and raise money in more sensible ways: scrapping “non-dom” tax status, for instance, or raising inheritance taxes. A rise in income tax would be better than reinstating the increase in national-insurance contributions, which fall solely on workers. 

尽管严守财政纪律有助于平息债市风波，但却无法促进经济增长。亨特正设法预算，这也是他将于10月31日公布的中期财政计划中的一部分。减少基建支出有助于控制英国国债的收益率，但却无法刺激经济。再者，大幅削减公共服务开支的空间不大。最好是逐步取消“三重保障制度”，并以更合理的方式获取资金：例如，取消“非税务居籍（non-dom）”税收优惠，或提高遗产税。提高个人所得税比恢复国民保险税的增长要好，因为后者只由工人承担。

注：

1. “三重保障制度”是指英国国家养老金每年的涨幅指标会从2.5%、平均薪资涨幅、通货膨胀这三项因素中取最高者来作为每年调涨的基准。它是由保守党和自由民主党联合政府在2010年推出的。（来源BBC：https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53082530）

2. “非税务居籍（non-domicile）”是指在英国的居民（residents），若他们的永久居籍（domicile）在英国之外的地方，那么他们不需要针对海外的资产和收入进行缴税。（来源GOV.UK https://www.gov.uk/tax-foreign-income/non-domiciled-residents）

For now, things are turning ever more Britalian. Tory mps are in disarray—evident in a chaotic vote on fracking and rumours of more resignations—and again consumed by intrigue about how long their prime minister can last. Ms Truss has become the human equivalent of Larry the cat, living in Downing Street but wielding no power. If (or rather, when) Tory mps decide to bin her, they need to find a replacement themselves rather than outsourcing it to Conservative Party members. The odds of their feuding factions alighting on a unifying figure are low. 

目前，英国的一切都越来越朝着意大利境遇发展，保守党议员们现在乱成一锅粥，从关于水力压裂法的混乱投票以及越来越多的辞职传言中可见一斑。。保守党议员的耳边再次充斥着阴谋——他们的首相能在任多久？特拉斯女士已成为人界的“拉里猫”，住在唐宁街，但已毫无权力。如果说（或者说当）保守党议员决定放弃她，那他们需要自己找到继任者，而不是甩给保守党成员。派系林立的保守党内部，突然找到一个能团结起各派别的领导人，这个概率非常低。

注释：

1. 拉里（英语：Larry，2007年1月—）为一只雄性黑白色的虎斑猫 ; 根据唐宁街10号官网的介绍，拉里的官方职责包括欢迎客人，安全检查。

2. 水力压裂法：受到诸多争议，因为该技术将钻入地下，从页岩中回收石油和天然气。在环保人士的反对和当地担忧该技术会引发地震后，水力压裂法于2019年停止。随着能源价格的上涨，特拉斯领导的政府支持水力压裂法，将其作为提高英国国内天然气供应的一种方式。

Spaghetti junction

纷繁复杂的十字路口

The case for an early general election is becoming stronger as a result. It is unlikely to happen: why would Torymps vote for their own demise? The argument that Ms Truss or any successor lacks a mandate is flawed in a parliamentary system. But if Parliament is unable to produce a functioning government then it is time to go to the voters. That moment is drawing closer. 

因此，更加有理由提前举行大选。保守党议员为何要支持自取灭亡？这不可能发生。特拉斯女士或任何继任者缺乏授权的说法在议会制度中是有缺陷的。但是如果议会无法产生一个正常运作的政府，那么是时候依靠全体选民了。这一时刻正日益逼近。

10-Holding elections has not resolved Italy’s problems. But there is reason to feel more hopeful about Britain, where political instability is now a one-party disease. The Tories have become nigh-on ungovernable, due to the corrosion from Brexit and the sheer exhaustion of 12 years in power. Ms Truss is right to identify growth as Britain’s biggest problem. Yet growth depends not on fantastical plans and big bangs, but on stable government, thoughtful policy and political unity. In their current incarnation the Tories cannot provide it. 

选举固然没有解决意大利的问题，但我们有理由对英国抱有更大的希望——在英国，如今的政治动荡均是拜一党独大所赐。英国脱欧的风雨洗礼，执政十二载的疲惫，这些都让保守党越来越难以管理。特拉斯将增长乏力视为英国最大的问题，这是正确的。然而，海市蜃楼的空想救不了英国，经济增长也不能仅靠几剂重拳猛药，它需要稳定的政府、深思熟虑的政策以及政治的团结。但这些对于现在的保守党而言，无异于痴人说梦。