经济学人社论 || 万物互联，万物有芯

Connected computers

万物互联

Chips with everything  

万物有“芯”

How the world will change as computers spread into everyday objects

万物互联，世界将如何改变

On August 29th, as Hurricane Dorian tracked towards America’s East coast, Elon Musk, the boss of Tesla, an electric-car maker, announced that some of his customers in the storm’s path would find that their cars had suddenly developed the ability to drive farther on a single battery charge. Like many modern vehicles, Mr Musk’s products are best thought of as internet-connected computers on wheels. The cheaper models in Tesla’s line-up have parts of their batteries disabled by the car’s software in order to limit their range. At the tap of a keyboard in Palo Alto, the firm was able to remove those restrictions and give drivers temporary access to the full power of their batteries.

8月29日，当飓风“多里安”逼近美国东海岸的时候，电动汽车制造商特斯拉的老板伊隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)宣称，在飓风影响范围内的特斯拉车主将发现车子被临时解锁额外续航以躲避飓风。与许多现代汽车一样，马斯克产品被认为是最好的 “车轮上的联网计算机”。特斯拉产品阵营中同一车型的较便宜版本电池续航里程被软件所限制。特斯拉公司只要在帕洛阿尔托总部敲下键盘（通过OTA随时解锁高续航版本），就能解除这些限制，为司机临时解锁所有电池容量。

注：

1.Tesla faces lawsuit over software that cut range from some cars https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1124477_tesla-faces-lawsuit-over-software-that-cut-range-from-some-cars

2.软件限制电池组性能，特斯拉推出廉价版Model S/Model X 

https://www.sohu.com/a/294185192_383324

3. 车主提起诉讼：特斯拉限制电池续航里程 存在欺诈https://news.mydrivers.com/1/640/640255.htm 

Mr Musk’s computerised cars are just one example of a much broader trend. As computers and connectivity become cheaper, it makes sense to bake them into more and more things that are not, in themselves, computers—from nappies and coffee machines to cows and factory robots—creating an “internet of things”, or IoT . It is a slow revolution that has been gathering pace for years, as computers have found their way into cars, telephones and televisions. But the transformation is about to go into overdrive. One forecast is that by 2035 the world will have a trillion connected computers, built into everything from food packaging to bridges and clothes.

马斯克的计算机化汽车只是当前大趋势中的一个小案例。随着计算机和联网的成本降低，越来越多不具有计算机功能的家用产品被植入了计算机与联网功能——从尿布、咖啡机到奶牛和工厂机器人——进而创造出出了一个“物联网”，简称IoT。这是一场缓慢的变革，随着计算机应用到汽车、电话以及电视领域中，这场变革多年来正在加快步伐，而这样的转变即将超速发展。据预测，到2035年，全球将有一万亿台联网计算机，植入在食品包装、桥梁和服装等各种物品中。

Such a world will bring many benefits. Consumers will get convenience, and products that can do things non-computerised versions cannot. Amazon’s Ring smart doorbells, for instance, come equipped with motion sensors and video cameras. Working together, they can also form what is, in effect, a private CCTV network, allowing the firm to offer its customers a “digital neighbourhood-watch” scheme and pass any interesting video along to the police.

这样的世界将会带来很多益处。消费者将会获得便利，也能获取许多非智能化商品无法提供的服务。例如，亚马逊Ring（该公司于2018年被亚马逊收购，销售智能门铃，用户可以远程监控他们的家门口）生产的智能门铃配备了运动传感器和摄像机。两者相辅相成，实际上就形成了一个私人监控网络，允许公司为其客户提供 “邻里观察“的方案，并将任何“有趣”的视频传给警方。

注：

1. 亚马逊收购智能门铃制造商Ring

https://36kr.com/p/5121180

2. 亚马逊监控公司与美国警方达成合作，建立“执法社区门户”

https://feng.ifeng.com/c/7ouhfZSXSzB

3. 亚马逊，24小时盯梢

http://cqmosaic.com/?shendu/20190704/22099.html

4. 亚马逊的门铃相机子公司Ring正在与警察合作 - 并控制警察所说的话

https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/81547241

Businesses will get efficiency, as information about the physical world that used to be ephemeral and uncertain becomes concrete and analysable. Smart lighting in buildings saves energy. Computerised machinery can predict its own breakdowns and schedule preventive maintenance. Connected cows can have their eating habits and vital signs tracked in real time, which means they produce more milk and require less medicine when they fall ill. Such gains are individually small but, compounded again and again across an economy, they are the raw material of growth—potentially a great deal of it.

企业的工作效率将得到提升，因为曾经现实世界里转瞬即逝而又难以预测的的信息，在万物联网后将变得清晰具体而又可被分析。建筑物里的智能照明产品可以节约能源；计算机化的机械可以预测故障并安排预防性保养。数字化养殖可以实时监测奶牛的饮食习惯和生命体征，这意味着它们可以生产更多的牛奶，而生病时需要的药品更少。单个来看，这些收益不算很大，但通过在经济体中的复合叠加，它们确实可以拉动经济增长——而且可能是大幅度的增长。

注：

1. 如何看待机械装备的"智能化"趋势

https://zhidao.baidu.com/question/1608917608742903667.html

2. Connected cows help farms keep up with the herd - Stories

https://news.microsoft.com/features/connected-cows-help-farms-keep-up-with-the-herd/

3. Connected Cow - Huawei solutions

https://www.huawei.com/minisite/iot/en/connected-cows.html

4. 从饲养到产奶：阿里云联合蒙牛启动“数字奶源计划”_奶牛

http://www.sohu.com/a/320081788_633245

5. 【壮丽70年·奋斗新时代】奶牛的5G手机 - 科迈信息网

http://www.keomai.com/ruanjian/20190823/5240036.htm

6. 其他动物的发展 Chicken robots, connected cows and Fitbits for horses | Sifted

https://sifted.eu/articles/chicken-robots-fitbits-horses-connected-cows-animal-tech/

In the long term, though, the most conspicuous effects of the IoT will be in how the world works. One way to think of it is as the second phase of the internet. This will carry with it the business models that have come to dominate the first phase—all-conquering “platform” monopolies, for instance, or the data-driven approach that critics call “surveillance capitalism”. Ever more companies will become tech companies; the internet will become all-pervasive. As a result, a series of unresolved arguments about ownership, data, surveillance, competition and security will spill over from the virtual world into the real one.

然而长久来看，物联网最显著影响在于世界运作方式（的改变）。一种方式是将其视为互联网的第二阶段。那些在互联网的第一阶段主导的商业模式将在这一阶段延续——诸如所向披靡的“平台”垄断模式，或是被批判家们称为“监控资本主义”的数据驱动模式。越来越多的企业会转型为技术公司；彼时互联网将无孔不入。因此，一系列关于所有权、数据、监控、竞争和安全的悬而未决的争论将从虚拟世界蔓延到现实世界。

注：

1. The three phases of the internet – Lichtman Consulting

https://lichtman.ca/the-three-phases-of-the-internet/

2. 整个人类处于互联网发展的哪个阶段？

https://blog.csdn.net/Sasoritattoo/article/details/9372961

3. Atitit 互联网之道 

https://blog.csdn.net/attilax/article/details/79347358

4. The Dangers of Platform Monopolies | INSEAD Knowledge

https://knowledge.insead.edu/blog/insead-blog/the-dangers-of-platform-monopolies-6031

5. What is surveillance capitalism? - Definition from WhatIs.com

https://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/surveillance-capitalism

Start with ownership. As Mr Musk showed, the internet gives firms the ability to stay connected to their products even after they have been sold, transforming them into something closer to services than goods. That has already blurred traditional ideas of ownership. When Microsoft closed its ebook store in July, for instance, its customers lost the ability to read titles they had bought (the firm offered refunds). Some early adopters of “smart home” gadgets have found that they ceased to work after the firms that made them lost interest.

先从所有权说起。正如马斯克先生所表明的那样，互联网使得公司在出售产品后仍旧与其保持连接，从而将产品转变为更像是种服务而非商品。这已经模糊了传统的所有权观念。例如，当微软在7月关闭其电子书店时，其客户便无法再阅读他们已购买的书籍了（微软为其提供了退款）。“智能家居” 设备的一些早期用户发现，这些小玩意在制造它们的公司失去兴趣后就停止工作了。

That tilts the balance of power from the customer to the seller. John Deere, an American maker of high-tech tractors, has been embroiled in a row over software restrictions that prevent its customers from repairing their tractors themselves. And since software is not sold but licensed, the firm has even argued that, in some circumstances, a tractor-buyer may not be buying a product at all, instead receiving only a licence to operate it.

这使得权力的天平从买方向卖方倾斜。美国高科技拖拉机制造商约翰•迪尔（John Deere）卷入了一场关于软件限制的纠纷，这些软件限制导致客户无法自行修理拖拉机。由于软件是通过许可方式使用而非出售使用，该公司甚至争辩说，在某些情况下，拖拉机买家可能根本没有买到拖拉机，只是获得了该产品的操作许可。

Virtual business models will jar in the physical world. Tech firms are generally happy to move fast and break things. But you cannot release the beta version of a fridge. Apple, a smartphone-maker, provides updates for its phones for only five years or so after their release; users of Android smartphones are lucky to get two. But goods such as washing machines or industrial machinery can have lifespans of a decade or more. Firms will need to work out how to support complicated computerised devices long after their original programmers have moved on.

虚拟商业模式与现实世界格格不入。科技公司普遍乐于快速发展，也勇于创新，不过发布Beta版本（内测版）的冰箱确实是行不通的。智能手机制造商苹果在新机发布后仅提供五年左右的系统更新；而安卓用户获得两年更新就算幸运了。但诸如洗衣机，工业器械等产品的使用寿命则为十年或更久。公司需要解决一个问题，那就是当最初的程序员换工作后，该如何继续为这些复杂的设备提供支持。

Data will be another flashpoint. For much of the internet the business model is to offer “free” services that are paid for with valuable and intimate user data, collected with consent that is half-informed at best. That is true of the iot as well. Smart mattresses track sleep. Medical implants observe and modify heartbeats and insulin levels, with varying degrees of transparency. The insurance industry is experimenting with using data from cars or fitness trackers to adjust customers’ premiums. In the virtual world, arguments about what should be tracked, and who owns the resulting data, can seem airy and theoretical. In the real one, they will feel more urgent.

数据将成为另一焦点。很大一部分互联网公司的商业模式是提供“免费”的服务，但用户需要用珍贵的个人信息为这些服务“买单”。而此类信息多半是在用户不知情的情况下被授权收集的。物联网行业的情况也是如此。智能床垫记录用户的睡眠状况；医用植入物观察并调整用户心跳和胰岛素水平，而用户的知情程度各有不同；保险行业正尝试用车辆数据与健身数据来调整消费者的保费。虚拟世界中，关于应该记录何种数据，最终数据究竟为谁所有的种种争论貌似只是假大空。现实世界中，人们感觉到的情况则更为迫切。

Then there is competition. Flows of data from IoT gadgets are just as valuable as those gleaned from Facebook posts or a Google search history. The logic of data-driven businesses, which do ever better as they collect and process more information, will replicate the market dynamics that have seen the rise of giant platform companies on the internet. The need for standards, and for IoT devices to talk to each other, will add to the leaders’ advantages—as will consumer fears, some of them justified, over the vulnerability of internet-connected cars, medical implants and other devices to hacking.

此外还有竞争。物联网各种设备产生海量数据，其价值并不亚于人们在Facebook上发布的帖子或是Google搜索留下的历史记录。数据驱动型企业收集和处理的信息越多，就越成功，按照这种发展规律，曾经将互联网巨型平台公司（facebook或Google）推向巅峰的市场动能将在物联网行业重现。对行业标准，以及物联网设备之间相互通讯的需求，将会增加头部企业的优势，也会增加消费者对联网汽车、医学植入装置以及其他设备遭受黑客攻击的担忧，而其中一些担忧不无道理。

Predicting the consequences of any technology is hard—especially one as universal as computing. The advent of the consumer internet, 25 years ago, was met with starry-eyed optimism. These days it is the internet’s defects, from monopoly power to corporate snooping and online radicalisation, that dominate the headlines. The trick with the IoT, as with anything, will be to maximise the benefits while minimising the harms. That will not be easy. But the people thinking about how to do it have the advantage of having lived through the first internet revolution—which should give them some idea of what to expect.

人们很难预测任何一项技术所带来的后果，尤其是像计算机计算这样的通用技术。25年前，人们对于消费互联网的出现感到过分乐观。而现在，垄断专制、企业窥探隐私以及网上上激进行为等互联网缺陷占据媒体头条。与任何事物一样，物联网的诀窍在于追求收益最大化和风险最小化。然而这并非易事。但是那些思考对策的人有一个优势：经历了第一次互联网革命，这应该让他们对未来有所预期。