经济学人社论||未来50年太空探索计划

The next 50 years in space

未来50年太空探索计划

A new age of space exploration is beginning

开启太空探索新时代

It will need the rule of law and a system of arms control to thrive

若想蓬勃发展，法治与军备控制系统都必不可少

The moment when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.

50年前，尼尔·阿姆斯特朗（Neil Armstrong）踏上月球的那一刻，全世界充满敬畏，为之自豪、为之惊叹。本刊曾写道:“从今天起，只要意志所达，想象能及，人们都可以抵达宇宙中任何地方，登陆其他星球，人类一定要去，宜早不宜迟。”但事实却不尽然。登月是特殊事件，当时的目的也不是登月本身，而是美国想展现自身杰出的能力。一旦证明了能力之后，就无须再次（通过登月来）证明。至今为止，只有571人进入过太空，而且自1972年以来，人们对太空探索的深度远远不够（得梅因（Des Moines）与芝加哥（Chicago）的距离约500km左右）。

The next 50 years will look very different (see Science section). Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.

未来50年与现在有天壤之别（详见Science版块）。成本下降、新科技涌现、中国与印度雄心勃勃、新一代企业家出世都预示着太空发展的全新时代即将到来。几乎可以肯定的是，这包括为富人提供的旅游服务，和为全人类提供更好的通讯网络。在这一时代，富人能够享受到太空旅游服务，全人类均可体验更好的通讯网络。长远来看，这对矿产开发，甚至大规模运输也有影响。未来，太空可能更像是地球的拓展区域，那里不仅仅是政府的活动区域，公司、个人也同样可进行活动。但是要想实现这一目标，世界需要建立一套法律体系管理太空，这套体系既适用于和平时期，也适用于未来可能出现的战争时期。

The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.

到目前为止，太空发展主要致力于促进用于无线传播及卫星导航的卫星通信发展。现在，两方面正在改变。首先，地缘政治冲击下，研究除低地球轨道以外的载人飞船势在必行。中国计划2035年实现载人登月，特朗普政府则计划于2024年再登月球。由于成本下降，登月这种炫技已经不再像以往那样无法负担。当年阿波罗号花费了数千亿美元（用现在的价格折算），而现在也只需花费数百亿美元即可实现。

Second, the private sector has come of age. Between 1958 and 2009 almost all of the spending in space was by state agencies, mainly NASA and the Pentagon. In the past decade private investment has risen to an annual average of $2bn a year, or 15% of the total, and it is set to increase further. SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket firm, made 21 successful satellite launches last year and is valued at $33bn. Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, sells off $1bn-worth of his shares in the company each year to pay for Blue Origin, a space venture. Virgin Galactic plans to go public this year at a valuation of $1.5bn. As well as capital and ideas, the private sector provides much greater efficiency. According to NASA, developing SpaceX’s Falcon rockets would have cost the agency $4bn; it cost SpaceX a tenth of that.

第二方面，私企已经登上太空发展舞台。1958到2009年期间，几乎所有的太空研发费用均由国家机构：主要是美国航空航天局和五角大楼这两个机构承担。而在过去的十年中，航空领域私人投资大幅增长，年均增长额达20亿美元（占总投入15%），而未来这个数字还会继续攀升。特斯拉CEO伊隆.马斯克（Elon Musk）旗下的美国太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）去年成功完成了21次卫星发射任务，耗资330亿美元。亚马逊创始人杰夫.贝佐斯（Jeff Bezos）每年卖掉价值10亿的股票，投入到他的宇航公司蓝源（Blue Origin）。维珍银河（Virgin Galactic）今年计划上市，估值15亿美元。就资金实力和创新能力来讲，私企进入该领域将更有效地促进太空研发进程。美国航空航天局表示，研发重型猎鹰火箭将耗费40亿美元，而美国太空探索技术公司只花费了这个数字的1/10。

Two new commercial models exist or are within reach: the big business of launching and maintaining swarms of communications satellites in low orbits and the niche one of tourism for the rich. The coming year will almost certainly see Virgin and Blue Origin flying passengers on sub-orbital excursions that offer the thrill of weightlessness and a view of the curved edge of Earth against the black sky of space. Virgin claims it might carry almost 1,000 wealthy adventurers a year by 2022. SpaceX is developing a reusable “Starship” larger and much more capable than its Falcons. Yusaku Maezawa, a Japanese fashion mogul, has made a down-payment for a Starship trip around the Moon; he intends to go with a crew of artists as early as 2023.

两种全新的商业模式如今已应运而生，或是触手可及。一种是发射大批通讯卫星并将这些卫星维持在低轨的大型模式，另一种是针对富人旅游的小众模式。未来一年内，我们一定能看到维珍银河和蓝源将乘客送至亚轨道区域旅行，让他们体验失重的快感，在茫茫的黑色太空中欣赏地球的弧线。维珍银河集团声称在2022年前，他们每年会为近1000名富有的冒险家提供这项服务。SpaceX正研发一种可重复使用的“星际飞船”，比之前的猎鹰号更大，装载的人数也更多。日本时尚界大亨前泽友作已为一次环绕月球飞行的星际飞船旅行付了首付，他计划最早于2023年同一组艺术家一起搭乘这座星际飞船。

Such possibilities could see the annual revenues of the space industry double to $800bn by 2030, according to UBS, a bank. Still further in the future, space development could remake how humanity lives. Mr Musk hopes to send settlers to Mars. Mr Bezos, the richest man in the world, wants to see millions of people making a living on space stations, perhaps before Armstrong’s footprint marks its centenary.

根据瑞士联合银行的数据，依靠上述这些商机，太空行业年收入有望在2030年前翻倍至八千亿美元。未来太空产业的发展会重塑人类的生活。马斯克希望人类能在火星定居，全球首富贝佐斯想亲眼目睹众人在太空站生活的场景，而这也许能在阿姆斯特朗登月的百年庆之前实现。

At a time when Earth faces grim news on climate change, slow growth and fraught politics, space might seem to offer a surprising reason for optimism. But it is neither a panacea nor a bolthole. And to realise its promise, a big problem has to be resolved and a dangerous risk avoided. The big problem is developing the rule of law (see International section). The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 declares space to be “the province of all mankind” and forbids claims of sovereignty. That leaves lots of room for interpretation. America says private firms can develop space-based resources; international law is ambiguous.

正值地球身处气候变化，经济低迷，政治动荡之际，太空或许意外地给了点盼头。但它既不是灵丹妙药，也不是避世桃源。而且若要变现这种可能，我们需要解决一个重大问题，以及避免一个极大风险，即制定法律法规。1967年制定的《外太空条约》宣称太空属于“全人类的公共领域”，并禁止任何一方宣示主权，这对条约的解释权留下了许多空间。美国称私人公司能够开发空间站资源，国际法规则模棱两可，指向不明。

Who would have the best claim to use the ice at the poles of the Moon for life support? Should Martian settlers be allowed to do what they like to the environment? Who is liable for satellite collisions? Space is already crowded—over 2,000 satellites are in orbit and NASA tracks over 500,000 individual pieces of debris hurtling at velocities of over 27,000km an hour.

谁最有权使用月球两极的冰川来维持生命？火星移民者是否可以对火星环境肆意妄为？谁又该对卫星碰撞负责？太空已经很拥挤——轨道上运行着超过2000颗卫星，美国国家航空航天局追踪显示，有超过50万遗骸碎片以每小时2.7万千米的速度疾飞。

Such uncertainties magnify the dangerous risk: the use of force in space. America’s unparalleled ability to project force on Earth depends on its extensive array of satellites. Other nations, knowing this, have built anti-satellite weapons, as America has itself . And military activity in space has no well-tested protocols or rules of engagement.

这些不确定因素加大了太空中使用武力的风险。美国之所以能够将武力投放到全球，是因为美国有着举世无双的装备：大规模的卫星列阵。其他国家心知肚明，也已效仿美国研发出反卫星武器。目前尚无任何有效条约或管理规定来制约这些太空军事行动。

America, China and India are rapidly increasing their destructive capabilities: blinding military satellites with lasers, jamming their signals to Earth or even blowing them up, causing debris to scatter across the cosmos. They are also turning their armed forces spaceward. Mr Trump plans to set up a Space Force, the first new branch of the armed forces since the air force was created in 1947. On the eve of the annual Bastille Day military parade on July 14th Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, also announced the formation of a new space command.

美国、中国和印度正加速发展扰乱卫星的破坏性武器，比如运用激光干扰军用卫星，向地球发射大量干扰信号甚至是彻底炸毁它们，由此形成的残骸碎片散落在整个宇宙。这些国家也正向太空进军，扩张军事力量。特朗普总统计划设立太空军队，这是自1947年空军成立之后首个全新的军队分支。7月14日是一年一度的巴士底日（法国国庆日），当日阅兵前夕，法国总统埃马纽埃尔.马克龙也公开宣布将成立一支新的太空部队。

In Heaven as it is on Earth

身处天堂，犹如置身地球

It is a mistake to promote space as a romanticised Wild West, an anarchic frontier where humanity can throw off its fetters and rediscover its destiny. For space to fulfil its promise governance is required. At a time when the world cannot agree on rules for the terrestrial trade of steel bars and soyabeans that may seem like a big ask. But without it the potential of all that lies beyond Earth will at best wait another 50 years to be fulfilled. At worst space could add to Earth’s problems.

狂野西部是无拘无束的边缘地带，人类在此挣脱枷锁与桎梏，重新发掘自身定命。但若把太空也描绘成这样的浪漫之地，则大错特错。人类若想充分实现太空的价值，监管必不可少。试想如今的世界连对钢筋木材和大豆贸易规则都无法达成一致，要实现对太空的有效监管难度极大。但若不加以管制，往好了说还要再等50年才能充分发挥地球之外的太空发展潜力。往坏了讲，太空可能还会加剧地球上已经存在的问题。

Wild West: The Wild West holds a special place in American history—Western films depict it as a place where the rules didn't apply, and where scores were settled with gun slinging and shootouts.  强权世界