拜登卖瓜，自卖自夸 | 经济学人社论

社论 | 平衡难支

Leaders | A bad balance

社论 | 平衡难支

Joe Biden is more responsible for high inflation than for abundant jobs

就业之功？通胀之责！

The main effect of the president’s economic policies has been to boost prices

总统经济政策的主要影响是抬高了物价

The way Joe Biden tells it, the only part of his economic record that really matters is jobs. America’s roaring labour market beat expectations again in April. The unemployment rate is lower than in any year since 1969. The share of 15- to 64-year-olds in employment has surpassed its pre-pandemic peak, which was itself the highest seen since 2007. Mr Biden likes to tell people that his presidency, which began in the midst of a rapid recovery from covid lockdowns, has coincided with more monthly job creation, on average, than any other in history. Provided America avoids a debt-ceiling crisis, and the associated halt to federal spending and probable lay-offs, the booming labour market looks like a ticket to re-election in 2024.

按拜登的话来说，（自执政以来）他那经济成绩单中唯一真正重要的部分就是就业。今年4月，美国火热的就业市场再次带来惊喜。失业率创1969年以来新低，15-64岁就业人口比例在新冠疫情爆发前已达到2007年以来的最高水平，现在甚至达到新高。2021年，美国正从疫情封锁中迅速恢复元气，拜登也于那年入主白宫。他常常告诉人们，正是在他任期期间，美国平均每月新增就业创下历史记录。如果美国能够避免债务上限危机，还有由此引起的联邦支出断付和可能出现的裁员潮，蓬勃发展的就业市场似乎能成为拜登2024年大选连任的门票。

注释：

1. provided: on condition that, with the understanding. (Merriam-Webster Dictionary) 连词=if

2. halt: v. to cease marching/(syn.) discontinue, terminate; n. stop. (Merriam-Webster Dictionary) 停止

3. 拓展资料：《美联社数说拜登执政两年“成绩单”》

https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1755605244182446300&wfr=spider&for=pc 

《高盛：当心！美国债务上限危机可能提前到6月》

https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2023-04-19/doc-imyqxfeh8353029.shtml 

Unfortunately for Mr Biden, however, another part of his record tells a less flattering story. High inflation continues to imperil the economy and vex voters. And placing his record in a global context reveals that he is more responsible for surging prices than he is for abundant jobs.

然而，对拜登来说不幸的是，他的另一部分“成绩单”不尽如人意：高通胀持续扰乱经济并困扰选民。考虑一下世界其他国家的情况，我们可以看出，相比推动充分就业，拜登更应该为物价飙升负责。

注释：

1. imperil: to bring into peril : endanger. (Merriam-Webster Dictionary) 危及

2. vex: to bring trouble, distress, or agitation to. (Merriam-Webster Dictionary) 带来麻烦

Mr Biden is right that America’s post-covid jobs recovery has been exceptional by historical standards. After the global financial crisis it took 13 years, by some measures, for the labour market to regain its health. This time it has taken little more than three years. The White House attributes surging employment to the $1.9trn “rescue plan” Mr Biden unleashed shortly after taking office in 2021. It contributed nearly a third of America’s total pandemic-related fiscal stimulus, which was worth an astonishing 26% of gdp, more than twice the average in the rich world.

拜登有一点说得对，美国就业率在疫情后的回弹速度在整个历史中是无与伦比的。2008年全球金融危机后，美国采取了一系列措施，耗费13年才使就业市场枯木逢春。而这一次只花了3年多。白宫将就业率激增归功于拜登在2021年宣誓就任后不久后推出的1.9万亿美元“救援计划”。疫情相关的财政刺激金额竟达到了GDP的26%，是富裕国家平均水平的2倍有余，而仅仅上述救援计划就占了该财政支出的近三分之一。

注释：

拓展资料：《拜登公布“美国救援计划”，1.9万亿美元》

https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1688951489136837743&wfr=spider&for=pc 

If the Biden stimulus had been responsible for the jobs boom, though, you would expect America’s labour market to be stronger than those of its peers. But in Canada, France, Germany and Italy working-age employment rates surpassed pre-pandemic highs by the end of 2021; Japan followed in 2022. Among the g7 group of economies America has beaten to a full recovery only Brexit-blighted Britain, where the employment rate is still lower than it was at the end of 2019.

如果拜登的刺激计划确实引发了就业热潮，美国的劳动力市场应该比其他国家更强劲才对。然而早在2021年底，加拿大、法国、德国和意大利的劳动年龄人口就业率就已超过疫情前的最高水平；日本于2022年紧随其后。在G7经济体中，美国虽实现了就业率充分复苏，但其就业情况仅好过因脱欧而受重创的英国，后者的就业率仍低于2019年底。

That employment bounced back in most places suggests that America’s jobs recovery had more to do with the unusual nature of the pandemic recession, brought about by lockdowns and social distancing, than with Mr Biden’s gargantuan stimulus. The extra public spending surely boosted demand for workers, but what followed was a historic surge in job vacancies and worker shortages as the economy overheated. Actual employment would almost certainly have shot up anyway. By the time Mr Biden came to office the jobs recovery was already two-thirds complete, having defied economists’ gloomy predictions.

疫情封控与社交距离措施所导致的经济衰退在本质上不同于以往的经济衰退。大部分地区就业率回升表明，美国的就业复苏现象更大程度上与此有关，而非拜登大手笔的经济刺激。额外的公共支出无疑提高了对劳动力的需求，但随着经济过热，职位空缺和劳动力短缺出现了历史性激增。在这一背景下，实际就业率可以说无论如何都会上升。等拜登上任时，就业复苏早已完成了三分之二，推翻了经济学家的悲观预测。

Mr Biden’s stimulus did, however, put a rocket under inflation. In April “core” consumer prices, which exclude energy and food, were 13.4% higher than when he came to office. They have risen more than in other g7 countries, and their acceleration coincided with the introduction of Mr Biden’s stimulus. Research suggests that, even by September 2022, the largesse was pushing up core inflation by about four percentage points.

然而，拜登的刺激计划确实给通胀添了把火。今年四月，核心消费价格水平（不包括能源和食品）较拜登上任时上涨了13.4%，涨幅超过了其他G7国家，而物价水平加速上涨正是发生在拜登推动刺激计划期间。研究表明，即使到2022年9月，拜登这种“慷慨解囊”的行为也使核心通胀率上升了大约四个百分点。

The White House is not solely responsible for inflation: the Federal Reserve failed to raise interest rates in time to offset the fiscal stimulus, and the energy crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine made a bad problem worse. But it was Mr Biden who lit the inflationary touch-paper—and whose signature policies are probably still boosting prices. It is now clear that the Inflation Reduction Act, which was supposed to cool the economy by shrinking deficits, will in fact widen them, owing to the higher-than-forecast take-up of its clean-energy tax credits.

通货膨胀的幕后推手不只有白宫：美联储未能及时提高利率以抵消财政刺激的影响，俄乌冲突引发的能源危机让本已严重的通胀问题雪上加霜。不过，正是拜登自己点燃了通胀的导火索，他的标志性政策可能仍在抬高物价。当前显而易见的是，由于清洁能源税收抵免的比例高于预期，本应缩减赤字来给经济降温的《通货膨胀削减法案》，实际上却会扩大赤字。

Where America’s recent record looks exceptionally good is growth. The imf forecasts that its gdp per person will this year be 4.6% larger than in 2019, easily the biggest increase among the g7 economies. Sadly for Mr Biden, though, this has little to do with him. The outperformance reflects better growth in productivity, not a faster employment rebound. America exports more energy than it imports, meaning in aggregate it benefited from surging fuel prices. And its pandemic spending from 2020 onwards focused more on supporting incomes than preserving jobs, resulting in a faster reallocation of workers around the economy than in Europe, which relied on subsidised furlough schemes. Both factors predate Mr Biden’s presidency.

美国近期比较喜人的成绩当属经济增长。国际货币基金组织预测，美国今年的人均gdp将比2019年增长4.6%，轻松摘得G7中增幅最大的桂冠。但遗憾的是，这与拜登本人关系不大。这样出色的表现反映了生产力蓬勃发展，而并非就业率加速回弹。美国的能源出口多于进口，所以它在总体上受益于飙升的燃料价格。从2020年起，美国政府的疫情支出更注重维持收入水平而非保护就业，因此，相较于依靠政府资助休假计划的欧洲，劳动力在美国经济中的再分配速度更快。上述两个因素其实早在拜登就任总统前就已经存在了。

Voters seem to sense that the main effect of the president’s economic policies to date has been to worsen inflation. Polls show that far more Americans think Donald Trump, Mr Biden’s predecessor and probable opponent in 2024, did a better job than Mr Biden of handling the economy, than the reverse. The longer inflation persists, the more likely it becomes that the Fed keeps rates high enough to tip America into recession—perhaps around the time of the election. Mr Biden’s largesse could go down as the mistake that let Mr Trump back into office.

蓦然回首，选民们似乎意识到，迄今为止，拜登经济政策的主要影响加剧了通货膨胀。民调显示，更多美国人认为，拜登的前任总统、也是他2024年大选的潜在对手特朗普在处理经济问题上比拜登做得更好。通货膨胀越是阴魂不散，美联储就越有可能维持足以把美国推入经济衰退深渊的高利率——衰退也许就在大选前后。拜登大手一挥、慷慨解囊，这一错误最终可能让特朗普得以重返白宫。

翻译组：   

Devin，荣枯有数，得失难量

Eva，寻路中，偶尔怀念，时常向前

Shulin，女， 热咖啡+保温杯，慢慢来er

校核组：

Pay，一个坚定远航的sailor

Charlie，往者不谏，来者可追

Harold，奔波中追寻星空ing，分无义乐真谛

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