通胀阴魂不散，带来种种麻烦 | 经济学人社论

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2023-07-05 08:07

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Leaders | The trouble with sticky inflation

社论 | 通胀阴魂不散，带来种种麻烦

英文部分选自经济学人20230624社论版块

Leaders | The trouble with sticky inflation

社论 | 通胀阴魂不散，带来种种麻烦

Investors must prepare for sustained higher inflation

投资者需警惕通胀高烧不退的风险

The costs of taming price rises could prove too unpalatable for central banks

抑制价格上涨的代价：央行不可承受之重

At first glance the world economy appears to have escaped from a tight spot. In the United States annual inflation has fallen to 4%, having approached double digits last year. A recession is nowhere in sight and the Federal Reserve has felt able to take a break from raising interest rates. After a gruesome 2022, stockmarkets have been celebrating: the s&p 500 index of American firms has risen by 14% so far this year, propelled by a resurgence in tech stocks. Only in Britain does inflation seem to be worryingly entrenched.

乍一看，全球经济似乎已脱离险境。美国去年的通胀率直逼两位数，如今已降至4%；经济衰退尚无迹可循，美联储也终有底气暂缓加息。股市挺过了惨淡的2022年，现正欢欣雀跃：科技股回暖带动标普500指数今年以来上涨了14%。只有英国上空仍盘旋着通胀的幽灵，令人忧心。

注释：

1. a tight spot: A particularly difficult or awkward situation, especially one that is not easy to get out of

2. the s&p 500 index 标普500指数：由标准普尔公司编制，其成分股包括纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克的500强公司，共505家公司。标准普尔500指数约占美国股票市场总价值的70%-80%。因此，一般而言，标准普尔500指数可以很好地反映整个美国市场的走势。

The trouble is that the inflation monster has not truly been tamed. Britain’s problem is the most acute. There, wages and “core” prices, which exclude energy and food, are rising by around 7%, year on year. But even as headline rates elsewhere have dropped as the energy shock has faded, core inflation has been frustratingly stubborn. In both America and the euro area it exceeds 5%, and has been high over the past year. Across the rich world many governments are adding fuel to the fire by running budget deficits of a scale typically seen during deep economic slumps.

问题是，通胀这头猛兽从未被真正驯服。英国的形势最为严峻，当地的工资水平与“核心”价格（即剔除能源与粮食后的商品和服务价格）同比增长7%左右。在其他国家，虽然随着能源“休克”缓解，整体通胀率有所下降，但核心通胀率仍然居高不下。例如，美国与欧元区的核心通胀率超过了5%，且过去一年里一直处于高位。与此同时，发达国家政府却在火上浇油，其财政赤字规模之大，好似经济正在急速衰退。

注释：

整体通胀（headline inflation）：用于确定一个经济体中发生的通货膨胀的增加或减少。这种类型的计算通常是通过定期考虑选定范围的商品和服务的当前平均价格，并将这些购买的总额与过去的时期相比较。与核心通胀相比，整体通胀的统计口径包含粮食和能源的价格波动。

核心通胀（core inflation）：指剔除一些价格变动巨大且频繁或短期性质价格波动的商品或服务后的通货膨胀，以核心CPI来表示。

As a result, central banks face agonising choices. What they do next will reverberate across financial markets, threatening uncertainty and upheaval for workers, bosses and pensioners.

因此，央行面临两难抉择。货币政策的下一步动作会在金融市场产生持续影响，可能给打工人，退休人员和资本家带去不确定性与动荡。

Equity investors are hoping that central banks can return inflation to their 2% targets without inducing a recession. But history suggests that bringing inflation down will be painful. In Britain mortgage rates are surging, causing pain to aspiring and existing homeowners alike. Rarely has America’s economy escaped unscathed as the Fed has raised rates. By one reckoning, the unemployment rate would have to rise to 6.5% for inflation to come down to the Fed’s target, the equivalent of another 5m people being out of work. Rising interest rates imperil financial stability in the euro area’s most indebted member countries, notably Italy.

股票投资者希望央行将通胀降低到此前2%的目标水平，同时避免诱发经济衰退。然而历史经验表明，降低通胀必经一番苦痛。英国当前按揭利率持续飙升，现有房主和潜在买家均深受打击。回顾历史，美国经济在美联储的加息周期中很难全身而退。据估计，若是通胀落到美联储的目标水平，失业率将增长至6.5%，相当于新增500万失业人口。而在欧元区，对于意大利等债台高筑的成员国而言，利率上涨还会威胁金融稳定。

注释：

1.alike: adv. used after referring to two groups of people or things to show that both groups are included. (Cambridge Dictionary)

2.unscathed: without injuries or damage being caused. (Cambridge Dictionary)

3.reckoning: n. a calculation that you make. (Cambridge Dictionary)

4. the FED’s 2% target: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) judges that inflation of 2 percent over the longer run is most consistent with the Federal Reserve’s mandate for maximum employment and price stability. https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm

Moreover, the secular forces pushing up inflation are likely to gather strength. Sabre-rattling between America and China is leading companies to replace efficient multinational supply chains with costlier local ones. The demands on the public purse to spend on everything from decarbonisation to defence will only intensify.

而且，其他推高通胀的非金融因素的影响也可能会越来越显著：zhong美之间的摩擦迫使企业“舍远求近”，放弃更高效的国际供应链，以更高的成本寻求供应链本土化；从脱碳到国防，各方面的需求会带来越来越大的公共支出压力。

注释：

1.secular: 非宗教的，世俗的；（经济波动、经济趋势）长期的。

此处取“长期的”之意，拓展阅读Secular: What It Means in Stock Investing, With Examples

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/secular.asp#toc-what-is-secular

2. sabre-rattling：敌人之间相互的武力威胁与恫吓（merriam-webster dictionary）。参考：https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/saber-rattling

Central bankers vow that they are determined to meet their targets. They could, by raising rates, destroy enough demand to bring inflation down. Were they to keep their word, a recession would seem likelier than a painless disinflation. But the costs of inducing a recession, together with the longer term pressures on inflation, suggest another scenario: that central banks seek to evade their nightmarish trade-off, by raising rates less than is needed to hit their targets and instead living with higher inflation of, say, 3% or 4%.

央行行长坚称，通胀目标必须实现。理论上来讲，他们可以继续加息以遏制需求，最终降低通胀，如果央行行长们真的言行一致，那么经济将很难软着陆。不过，考虑到激进的加息可能导致衰退，并对通胀产生长期的压制作用，也许还可以考虑另一种政策路径：放弃2%的通胀目标，允许通胀处于3%或4%的水平，这样央行就可以采取更为温和的加息措施，避免陷入保经济还是控通胀的两难选择。

注释：

1.通货紧缩（deflation）和反通货膨胀（disinflation）：deflation is a decrease in general price levels throughout an economy, while disinflation is what happens when price inflation slows down temporarily.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/032415/what-difference-between-deflation-and-disinflation.asp

This approach would resemble the “opportunistic disinflation” espoused by some Fed governors in the late 1980s. Rather than deliberately inducing recessions to bring inflation down, they sought to do so passively, from cycle to cycle. Yet today’s markets are not prepared for such tactics. The pricing of inflation-linked Treasuries, for instance, is consistent with average inflation expectations of 2.1% over the next five years, and 2.3% in the five years thereafter. A world of higher sustained inflation would therefore involve an epochal shift for financial markets. Unfortunately, it would be volatile, wrong-foot investors and pit winners against losers.

这不免让人想起20世纪80年代末几位美联储理事主张的“机会主义降通胀”：与其为了降低通胀而主动引发经济衰退，他们被动地等待机会，以跨周期的方式解决通胀问题。然而，今天的金融市场可能消化不了这样的战术。例如，通胀挂钩美国国债当前的定价水平基本反映了市场对未来一段时间的通胀预期，即第一个五年约2.1%，第二个五年约2.3%。因此，假如全球通胀长期维持在更高水平，金融市场将迎来划时代的转折。然而，这样的转折恐怕意味着市场动荡、投资者方寸大乱、和输赢双方的重新洗牌。

注释：

1.espouse: to become involved with or support an activity or opinion. (Cambridge Dictionary)

2.Treasury: 此处应指美国国债Treasury Security

拓展阅读：Introduction to Treasury Securities

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/073113/introduction-treasury-securities.asp

3.volatile: likely to change suddenly and unexpectedly, especially by getting worse. (Cambridge Dictionary)

4.wrong-foot: to cause someone to be in a difficult situation by doing something unexpected. (Cambridge Dictionary)

5.pit: to set into opposition or rivalry, usually used with against. (Merriam-Webster Dictionary)

One source of volatility could stem from the damage to central banks’ reputations. In the decades since the 1980s they have trumpeted their commitment to targets. Yet over the past two years they have failed to anticipate the persistence of inflation. Should they then pay lip service to their unmet targets, they might no longer be taken at their word. In time they could lose the ability to guide the expectations of businesses and their workers. Those expectations could become unmoored and cause lurches in prices, inducing inflation to spiral.

央行声誉受损就可能导致动荡。20世纪80年代以来的几十年里，央行一直吹嘘自己言出必行。然而，过去两年间央行没能预判到通胀将长期持续。如果这次他们依然只动嘴不动手，那下次张嘴还有几个人会听？长此以往，央行引导企业及其职工预期的能力将大打折扣，导致预期走偏，物价异常波动，从而引发价格/工资螺旋上涨。

注释：

1.lurch n.sudden and unpredictable movements突然波动

2.unmoor: to loosen from or as if from moorings（mooring n.系船用具，系伯装置）

3.unmoored ①(of a vessel) not or no longer attached to a mooring:

②(of a person) insecure, confused, or lacking contact with reality:

unmoored expectations: Like a ship adrift on the open ocean, once inflation expectations have become “unmoored”, the population’s concern for inflation is free to float off aimlessly into the distance getting ever further from where it was once very stably anchored.

4.lip service: an avowal of advocacy, adherence, or allegiance expressed in words but not backed by deeds口惠

pay lip service to对......口惠而实不至

5.unmet adj.not satisfied未实现的

Volatile inflation would hurt companies, and their shares, by making it harder for them to manage their costs and set prices. It would hurt virtually every asset class by raising the likelihood that central banks would have to rush to adjust rates after an unexpected flare-up. That could bring large swings in real yields, prompting investors to demand a discount in compensation for the uncertainty, forcing asset prices down.

通胀波动还将使企业更难管理成本和定价，导致企业利益受损及股票价格承压。央行在通胀突升后匆忙调整利率的可能性更高，导致几乎所有资产类别受损。这有可能带来实际收益率大幅波动，投资者便会要求额外的风险溢价，导致资产价格下跌。

The new regime could wrong-foot investors in other ways, too. Were central banks more lax, it would initially flatter the prices of short-term bonds and push down their yields. In time, as the system adjusted to higher inflation, nominal rates would rise to keep real interest rates constant; in anticipation, the price of long-term bonds would fall. Investors could rush into commodities, an inflation hedge. Yet a stampede into the tiny market for futures, which are easier to trade than physical barrels of oil, would risk a bubble.

这种策略也容易给投资者带来其他方面的混乱。央行若是“松松手”，起初会导致收益率下降，拉平收益率曲线的短端。随着金融体系逐渐适应更高的通胀水平，名义利率将会上升，才能维持实际利率恒定；基于此预期，长期债券价格将会下跌。在此情形下，投资者可能涌入大宗商品市场以对冲通胀风险。然而，期货（比实物商品更容易交易出手）市场体量不够大，投资者争相入场容易引发泡沫。

注释：

1.wrong-foot:

①to cause (someone, such as an opponent in soccer or tennis) to lean into or step with the wrong foot

broadly : to disrupt the equilibrium of

//a speed and flexibility that repeatedly wrong-footed his enemies

②to cause someone to be in a difficult situation by doing something unexpected让某人方寸大乱/措手不及/仓皇失措

例：The company was completely wrong-footed by the dollar's sudden recovery.

2.constant: that does not change不变的，恒定的

3.hedge: a means of protection or defense (as against financial loss)防范措施

//common stocks are the best hedge against inflation

Higher inflation would also create new winners and losers. Most obviously, inflation involves an arbitrary transfer of wealth from lenders to borrowers, as the real value of debt falls. Heavily indebted borrowers, including governments around the world, may feel like rejoicing. But as bond investors realised they were being stiffed, they could punish recklessness with higher borrowing costs, including in rich countries.

更高的通胀还可能打乱现有的输赢局面。最明显的一点是，通胀会使财富从债权人向债务人转移，因为债权的实际价值下降了。包括各国政府在内，债台高筑的借款方可能会乐开了花。但是当债券投资者回过味来，他们就会提高借贷成本，来惩罚央行的鲁莽，即使是富裕国家也无法独善其身。

注释：

1.stiff: ①to refuse to pay or tip //stiffed the waiter

②cheat //stiffed him in a business deal

③to fail commercially //the movie stiffed at the box office

2.期货市场，是按达成的协议交易并按预定日期交割的金融市场。现货与期货的显著区别是，期货的交割期放在未来，而价格、交货及付款的数量、方式、地点和其他条件是在即期由买卖双方在合同中规定的，商品及证券均可在期货市场上交易。虽然合同已经签订，但双方买卖的商品可能正在运输途中，也可能正在生产中，甚至可能还没有投入生产过程，卖者手中可能有商品或证券，也可能没有商品或证券。

翻译组：

Ryan，译海徜徉的一条咸鱼

Charlie，往者不谏，来者可追

Eva，寻路中，偶尔怀念，时常向前

校核组：

Tera，一口，本自清净

风筝，热爱生活热爱翻译热爱搞钱热爱猫咪

Ithil，胡辣汤爱好者，世界冠军、三星阿根廷球迷

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