见鬼了，漂亮国经济居然起飞了 | 经济学人（感想无敌）
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Angela， “如果这纷乱的世界让我沮丧，我就去看看她们眼中的光芒。”
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Finance & economics | Energised
财经｜注入动力
英文部分选自经济学人20230826财经板块
Finance & economics | Energised
财经｜注入动力
America’s astonishing economic growth goes up another gear
美国经济换挡提速 狂飙继续
Will high bond yields be what finally takes it down?
高债券收益率会让增速放缓吗?
Aug 23rd 2023 | Washington, DC
2023年8月23日｜华盛顿特区
The energizer bunny, a pink mechanical hare that keeps banging its drum owing to long-lasting batteries, will celebrate its 35th anniversary this October. As if to mark the momentous occasion, the American economy is doing its best imitation of the advertising icon. Despite umpteen predictions of a slowdown, it keeps going and going. Recent data suggest it may even be on track for annualised growth of nearly 6% in the third quarter, a pace it has hit only a few times since 2000.
今年10月，"劲量兔"将迎来35周年纪念日。这只粉色的机械兔是美国一家电池厂商的广告形象，因为电池续航时间超长，总是不停敲鼓，不舍昼夜。仿佛为了纪念这一重要时刻，美国经济像打了鸡血般，既有“劲”又有“量”。尽管关于经济放缓的预测层出不穷，美国经济却增速不减。近期数据显示，第三季度年化增长率甚至有望逼近6%。21世纪以来，美国实现6%经济增速的次数屈指可数。
As has been the case repeatedly over the past year, a steady stream of better-than-expected data has left analysts scrambling to lift their forecasts. New orders for manufacturing firms reached their highest in nine months in July. Retail sales were perky last month, too, with consumers splurging on everything from restaurant meals to online shopping and clothing to sporting goods. The construction industry has also been buoyant, supported by a rebound in homebuilding. Underpinning all this is the labour market, which has remained hot, making it relatively easy for people to find work at decent wages. The total number of jobs in America has been growing faster than the working-age population, helping to keep the unemployment rate at 3.5%, just shy of a five-decade low.
正如过去的一年里一再出现的那样，一系列好于预期的数据持续出炉，迫使分析师们急忙上调预测。7月，制造业新增订单创过去9个月的新高。当月零售量同样可观，消费者干什么都大手大脚，不论是下馆子还是网购，添置衣物还是购买体育用品。建筑业得益于新房建设回暖，也一派欣欣向荣。而支撑这一切的关键因素是持续火热的劳动力市场，求职者现在更容易找到薪资满意的工作。在美国，工作岗位增速一直高于劳动年龄人口增速，使得失业率保持在3.5%，接近50年最低水平。
The worry is that such strong growth, veering into overheating, will also beget a long-lasting inflation problem. Added up, America is on track for a gdp figure this quarter that may look more like a “no landing” than the “soft landing” expected a short while ago. The Federal Reserve’s branch in Atlanta uses a range of data points to estimate gdp growth in real time: a technique known as nowcasting, rather than forecasting, because it assigns weights to already observed variables without factoring in expectations for future figures. On August 16th, its latest update, the model showed the economy may expand by 5.8% in the third quarter. That would be a shocker after more than a year of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed.
经济増长强劲，甚至有过热的势头，通胀将因此居高不下，这令人担忧。总的来说，相比不久前预测的“软着陆”，美国本季度GDP更像是“不着陆”。美联储亚特兰大分行根据一系列数据点估算GDP实时增速，我们称这种方法为“实测”（Nowcast，或称临近预测）。之所以是实测而非预测，是因为只有已观察到的变量会获得权重，而不计入未来数据的数学期望。8月16日，最新实测结果显示，第三季度，美国GDP增长5.8%。经过美联储一年多的激进加息，这属实令人震惊。
Could growth really be that strong? The nowcast almost certainly exaggerates the economy’s vigour. It is normally off by about two percentage points at this point in the quarterly cycle (see chart). One factor this time is likely to be inventories. When firms make sales from their stocks rather than by producing new goods, this drawdown counts as a subtraction from gdp. A recent gap between rising retail sales and declining wholesale transactions suggests that such a drawdown is now taking place and will weigh on growth, according to Andrew Hunter of Capital Economics, a consultancy. Still, even if somewhat exaggerated, the Atlanta Fed’s nowcast is almost always directionally correct. The inference is clear: America’s economy is not just holding up but steaming ahead.
经济增长真的如此强劲吗？几乎可以肯定，实测会夸大经济的活力。在季度周期的当前节点上，它通常会偏离实际情况约两个百分点（见图表）。就当前而言，库存可能是一大影响因素。若企业销售额来自库存而非新生产的商品，这种存货的消耗会从GDP中扣除。咨询公司凯投宏观（Capital Economics）的安德鲁·亨特（Andrew Hunter）认为，最近，零售额增长，批发交易量却下降，两者的差距表明积压库存正在逐渐减少，并将对经济增长造成压力。不过，亚特兰大联储的实测即便有些夸大其词，但方向几乎总是正确的。推论很明确：美国经济稳中有升，势头强劲。
Recent months have offered some respite on the inflation front. Core prices, which strip out volatile food and energy costs, have risen at their slowest pace in more than two years. But if the economy continues to heat up, inflation may well stage a rebound. Andrew Hollenhorst of Citigroup, a bank, warns that shortages of both workers and housing risk a significant reacceleration of prices next year. Where once optimists thought that inflation might be transitory, now pessimists fear that disinflation will be fleeting. That would scupper hopes for a pivot to monetary loosening by the Fed.
最近几个月美国通胀压力有所缓解。核心消费者价格指数（剔除波动较大的食品和能源成本）增速为两年多来最缓。但如果经济继续升温，通胀很可能会出现反弹。花旗银行（Citigroup）的安德鲁·霍伦霍斯特（Andrew Hollenhorst）警告称，劳动力和住房短缺有可能导致明年物价再次加速上涨。曾经，乐观主义者认为通胀可能是暂时的，而现在，悲观主义者则担心通胀放缓会转瞬即逝。这将使美联储转向宽松货币政策的希望化为泡影。
The strength of the American economy may also add to financial strains. It is the principal factor explaining why investors have sold off government bonds since May. Yields, which move inversely to prices, have risen by about one percentage point during that time, with long-term Treasury yields climbing to 16-year highs. This has prompted a debate about whether America’s neutral short-term interest rate—where the Fed would set rates to neither stifle nor stimulate growth—has drifted up. Bill Dudley, a former Fed official, has argued that in the long run America may require higher rates to balance the need for more borrowing (implied by higher government deficits) and a smaller funding pool (as retirees spend their savings). A gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, taking place after we go to press, was expected to discuss such issues.
美国经济势头强劲，还可能使金融市场进一步承压。这是投资者自5月以来抛售国债的主要原因。在此期间，国债收益率（与价格成反比）上涨了约一个百分点，长期国债收益率攀升至过去十六年的高点。于是，人们开始讨论美国中性短期利率（美联储设定的既不抑制也不刺激经济增长的利率）是否有所上升。前美联储官员比尔·达德利（Bill Dudley）认为，从长远来看，美国可能需要更高的利率来平衡更多的借贷需求（随着政府赤字加深）和更小的资金供给（随着退休人员消耗储蓄）。本期付印后，怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔小镇将召开央行行长会议，会上将讨论这些问题。
Wall Street is now convinced that in the short run the Fed will need to keep rates higher than expected, too. A few months ago most were pricing in rapid rate cuts starting in September; now most think the Fed will wait until May and will move tepidly. Given the economy’s continuous outperformance, pricing in higher rates further into the future seems prudent.
现在，华尔街认为，美联储短期内需要保证利率高于预期。几个月前，市场普遍认为美联储将从9月开始快步降息，这也反应在了资产定价中；如今，多数观点是美联储会等到明年5月再降息，并且行动更加温和。鉴于经济表现持续超出预期，在考虑未来利率走向时，继续定价加息预期是比较稳妥的。
Higher yields are contributing to an increase in funding costs for financial institutions, which are a headache for smaller lenders in particular. Moody’s and s&p, two credit-rating agencies, downgraded a spate of banks this month, a reminder of the continued fragility of the financial sector. Higher borrowing costs are also starting to bite for consumers. Delinquencies on credit cards and car loans have started to increase sharply. Finally, higher rates are clouding the outlook for housing. Like the wider economy, the market has been most notable for its resilience to date. But mortgage rates have jumped over the past couple of months and hit 7.5% this week, their highest since 2001. This is already having a dampening effect on existing home sales, which could spread to homebuilding and construction more generally.
收益率上升导致金融机构融资成本增加，这会让中小规模贷款机构头疼不已。穆迪和标普两家信用评级机构本月接连下调了多家银行的评级，这告诉我们金融业依然脆弱。贷款成本上升也开始影响消费者。信用卡和车贷逾期急剧增加。高利率也给房地产市场蒙上阴影。迄今为止，房地产市场与宏观经济一样，最大的特点就是韧性足。但在过去几个月里，住房抵押贷款利率飙升，本周甚至达到7.5%，是自2001年以来的最高点。这已经影响了现房销售，还可能进一步传导到房地产开发和建筑行业。
The lesson of recent history is that the American economy inevitably blows through such problems. Nothing lasts for ever, though. The higher yields rise, the greater the challenge. In the advertisements the Energizer Bunny’s batteries never fade. In real life even the strongest batteries are drained eventually—or unceremoniously yanked out.
近来的经验告诉我们，美国经济总能“关关难过，关关过”。但没有什么是一成不变的。收益率越高，挑战就越大。毕竟，虽然广告片里的劲量兔永远电量充沛，但现实生活中再强劲的电池总有电量耗尽的一天，甚至等不到那一天就被无情拔掉。
翻译组：
Jessie，女，翻译界林黛玉，想被人叫大佬
Humi，在躺平、侧卧和睡梦中寻找诗和远方
Yuqing，女，理想主义体验派，经济学人读者
校对组：
Des，爱与痛的边缘
Rachel，心有懵虎，细嗅乌龟
Constance，痛终有时，爱必将至
风筝，热爱生活 热爱翻译 热爱搞钱 热爱猫咪
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文章应该怎么读呢？如何了解作者本人的观点呢？科普文或者评论性文章怎么写更便利读者观察世界呢？
确实，这就是我们读罢本文的感想。
首先，我们可能需要按照中学里阅读理解题的思路，去看一篇文章的第一句和最后一句，或者是第一段和最后一段。这么看下来，作者的观点至少是清楚的吧？大家不妨滑屏看下。
其次，是作者想表达什么？经济狂飙却是如何产生？风险是否就在不远的未来？
歪个小楼，我们其实在经济学人文章，至少社论版和商业版是这样，其实都不怎么会看到专门的术语。科普或评论性文章是否一定要回避术语才是更好的选择呢？
我们一直对此颇有犹疑与困惑。读者是否就特别回避术语呢？还是其实我们可以尝试通过精妙表达让读者可以没有感受到接受知识的压迫感的方式就能接受术语呢？
因为术语毕竟是一个学科看世界的语言，很多时候是概念，所谓概念从基本的含义来说，它会起到区别事物的作用。所以将术语们合理使用一下，可能就更容易让我们看明白事件之间的关系。
不过，这会让读者觉得自己在受教育吗？
读者更喜欢浏览，还是乐意通过阅读接受教育呢？
显然，经济学人认为事实应该是前一种情况。
所以就有好多聚焦声东击西、内容林林总总的长短文呈现在我们面前。我们每个人也都在文章中看到了自己要看到的（虽然，这句话看似写得不清不楚）。
简单来说，本文说库存在减少，批发交易量在下降；消费者消费能力很强，大概率由于之前疫情期间积累了许多“慷慨的”补贴如今好花了；生产在疫情后终于能有个相对正常的生产环境，产出应该是在正常地恢复的，企业主和劳工的收入自然应该由此趋于正常化，这样大家能花的钱也就正常地多起来。
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