拜登竞争连任，前方荆棘密布 | 经济学人（祝所有老师们节日快乐）
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思维导图作者：
May Li，男，我要去追逐心中的太阳，还要继续努力的亚古兽
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United States | Lexington
经济学人美国 | 列克星敦专栏
Joe Biden’s re-election bid is in trouble
拜登竞争连任，前方荆棘密布
The Democrats’ bet looks increasingly risky
民主党这步棋愈发危险
The front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination is under indictment for 91 felonies in four criminal cases, and he probably is, as one of his primary opponents remarked during the recent Republican debate, the most disliked politician in America. Democrats have reason to be smug at the prospect of Donald Trump as the Republican nominee—unless they take a hard look at the vulnerabilities of their own standard-bearer.
特朗普在共和党阵营的总统提名中遥遥领先，却被指控在四起刑事案件中犯下91项重罪。正如他的一位主要劲敌在近期共和党辩论中所言，他可能是全美最令人生厌的政治家。对于特朗普有可能成为共和党总统提名人一事，民主党派有充分理由沾沾自喜，如果他们没把本党领袖的弱势当回事的话。
注释：
take a hard look at: To examine something very closely and thoroughly.
Fewer than one in four Americans (24%) want President Joe Biden to run again, according to a poll published on August 17th by the Associated Press. Even 55% of Democrats do not think he should run. Although his approval rating has ticked up, he remains one of the most unpopular presidents in modern history.
美联社于8月17日发布的民调显示，只有不到1/4（约为24%）的美国人希望拜登能再度参选。甚至在民主党阵营里，55%的人认为他不应该参选。尽管拜登的支持率小幅攀升，但他依旧领跑“美国现代史上最不受欢迎的总统”榜单。
Mr Biden’s problems are obscured by the drama around Donald Trump’s arrests and the Republican nominating contest. But that is also becoming a problem for the current president: he needs to capture the country’s attention if he hopes to recapture its imagination. Only Jimmy Carter and Donald Trump himself—both one-term presidents, at least so far—had net-negative ratings worse than Mr Biden’s at this point in their presidencies, according to an analysis of aggregated polls by the political publication FiveThirtyEight. In late August, its summary of public polls showed that 42% of Americans approved of the job Mr Biden was doing, whereas 53% disapproved.
特朗普上演被捕闹剧，共和党内竞逐总统提名，都掩盖了拜登的种种问题，但也同时给他带来了一个新问题：如果他希望重获民心，就需要先吸引他们的注意。政论网站FiveThirtyEight的综合民意调查分析报告显示，就反对率减去支持率之差而言，仅有吉米·卡特（Jimmy Carter）与特朗普（二人均只任了一届总统）在任期内同一时间节点的数值比拜登还低。8月下旬，FiveThirtyEight的民意调查总结显示，42%的美国人认可拜登任内的表现，而53%的人表示不满。
His standing is even worse on the matter Americans care about most, his handling of the economy. The same Associated Press poll found that just 36% approve of his economic stewardship. It is hard to know which half of “Bidenomics” inspires them less.
在美国人最关心的经济问题上，拜登的声望甚至更糟。前述美联社的一项调查显示，只有36%的人认可拜登政府的财政管理。很难分辨“拜登经济学”的哪一面令民众更为失望。
On issues such as crime, corruption in government and immigration, surveys suggest Mr Biden’s Republican opponent will have plenty of unhappiness to work with. Even in solidly blue New York, an influx of asylum-seekers—some bused from Republican border states—is souring Democrats on the president. Fewer than half of New Yorkers would vote for Mr Biden in a contest with Mr Trump, according to a recent Siena College poll. Mr Biden still led Mr Trump, 47% to 34% (with lots of abstentions). But that is a lousy margin for a Democrat in New York, far less than the 25-point minimum lead Mr Biden held in 2020.
调查显示，在犯罪、政治腐败和移民问题上，民主党的所作所为引发了诸多不满，而这将让拜登的共和党对手大有可乘之机。即便是在民主党地位稳固的纽约，大量涌入的难民（其中一些从共和党主导的各州边境乘公共汽车而来）也让民主党反感这位总统。根据锡耶纳学院（Siena College）最近的一项民意调查，在拜登和特朗普的竞争中，只有不到一半的纽约居民愿意投票给拜登，拜登仍以47%对34%的票数领先于特朗普（在有很多弃权票的情况下）。但对于纽约的民主党人来说，这一差距已然十分不妙，远远小于拜登在2020年保持的25%的最小领先优势。
注释：
work with: to manipulate or work on someone or something.
To the president’s partisans, all this is unfair. They rightly note the economy is vibrant. Unemployment, at 3.5%, is near a 50-year low, inflation has come down and real wages have been rising, at least for the poor. Homicide rates are falling in American cities. Although Republicans predicted chaos at the southern border after Mr Biden ended covid-era restrictions in May, a new border regime imposed by Mr Biden appears to be keeping such crossings below levels recorded before then.Mr Biden has adeptly led the international response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and amassed a formidable record of bipartisan legislation.
这对拜登的拥趸者毫无公平可言。他们一针见血，表示现在的经济充满活力；3.5%的失业率接近50年来的最低水平；通货膨胀率已经下降；实际工资一直在上涨（至少对穷人来说是这样）；市区凶杀率正在下降。今年5月，拜登取消了新冠时期的各种限制，共和党人预测南部国境会出现混乱，但是拜登实施的新入境制度，似乎正使入境人数控制在此前记录以下。此外，拜登娴熟地领导国际社会应对俄乌冲突，并在两党立法方面取得了骄人的成绩。
But the president seems stuck with impressions formed in his first two years in office. His approval rating has never recovered since it crashed during America’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan two years ago. That same summer of 2021 he dismissed inflation as “temporary”. For months into 2022, he pursued progressives’ fondest and costliest policy goals before settling for the still-ambitious Inflation Reduction Act. “It made him look like he was pursuing liberal goals and was ineffective at doing it,” says Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster. “And it made moderates feel like they’d been sold a bill of goods.” Mr Biden’s position has continued to deteriorate with the working-class voters, of whatever race, whom he will need in such battleground states as Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
但拜登前两年执政的形象还在美国人民心中挥之不去。两年前，美国从阿富汗狼狈撤军，拜登的支持率自此一落千丈，再无起色。就在2021 年夏天，他还认为通货膨胀只是“暂时的”。在2022年的头几个月，他一直在追求进步派人士最憧憬、也是代价最高昂的政策目标，直到最终颁布了雄心仍存的《通胀削减法案》。长期从事共和党民调的惠特·艾尔斯（Whit Ayres）表示：“拜登看上去像是在追求自由派的目标，但鲜有成效，最后让温和派觉得上当受骗”。在亚利桑那州、内华达州和宾夕法尼亚州等“战场州”，拜登在工人阶级（不论哪个种族）选民中的声望持续恶化。
注释：
sold a bill of goods: To make someone believe a lie. Often people use this expression when someone has made a promise that he or she cannot keep, despite other people believing this promise.
The collapse of Hunter Biden’s plea agreement with prosecutors this summer means that publicity about his sordid traffic in the family name will continue to cloud Mr Biden’s own image of decency, and of his efforts to restore integrity to government. Student-loan repayments, suspended for more than three years because of the pandemic, are due to resume on October 1st. A national carworkers’ strike is looming.
今年夏天，亨特·拜登（Hunter Biden）与检方达成的认罪协议破裂，有关他以家族之名进行肮脏交易的报道，将继续给拜登的正派形象蒙上阴影，也会继续让拜登为恢复政府公信力所做的努力打折扣。因疫情暂缓还款三年多的学生贷款将于10月1日重新启动。一场全国性的汽车工人罢工正在酝酿之中。
Democrats will rally to Mr Biden, and he has time to woo others. Yet every day that goes by his party’s biggest gamble, on his continued good health and acuity, also grows riskier. In 2020 voters embraced the idea that his age and experience made him a steady hand. Now they seem primed to see the slightest gaffe or stumble as confirmation that he is becoming unsteady. According to an AP poll at the end of August, 77% of Americans think Mr Biden is too old to serve effectively. His vice-president, Kamala Harris, has an even lower approval rating than he does.
民主党人将团结起来支持拜登，拜登也有时间拉拢其他人。然而，随着时间流逝，民主党最大的一步棋——拜登能否保持健康和明智——也就变得更加危险。2020年，选民们认为拜登资历老，经验多，是稳重的人选。但现在，只要拜登稍有失态或磕绊，选民似乎就觉得这印证了他的不稳重。根据美联社8月底的一项民意调查，77%的美国人觉得拜登年纪太大，无法胜任。而副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris，中文名贺锦丽）的支持率甚至还不如拜登。
Joe versus the volcano
前途未卜的拜登
注释：Joe Versus the Volcano（《跳火山的人》）是一部1990年的美国电影，男主角叫Joe（乔），Joe是拜登名字乔瑟夫（Joseph）的简称。
Mr Biden has been trying to improve voters’ views of “Bidenomics” and of him. So far, a big push that began in June has had little obvious benefit. In late August his campaign began a four-month, $25m advertising blitz of seven battleground states. The first advertisement touts America’s pandemic recovery and a resurgence of manufacturing. “America is back!” Mr Biden declares, as though to pre-empt any claim it might need to be made great again.
拜登一直在努力改善选民对“拜登经济学”和他本人的看法。目前为止，从6月开始的大举宣传并没有产生明显的效果。8月下旬，他的竞选团队开始在七个战场州集中火力进行宣传，为期4个月，耗资2500万美元。第一波宣传鼓吹美国从疫情中复苏以及制造业复兴。拜登宣称“美国王者归来！”，似乎是为了先声夺人，以防有竞争对手发表有关美国需要重振雄风的言论。
注释：
blitz: [C, usually sing.] something which is done with a lot of energy 集中力量的行动；闪击式行动 • an advertising/ a media blitz (= a lot of information about sth on television, in newspapers, etc.) 集中火力的广告╱媒体宣传
Beyond trying to persuade Americans they have it pretty good, Mr Biden will count on the fight over abortion rights and, most of all, on Mr Trump’s greater unpopularity to motivate dispirited Democrats and win over the dwindling cadre of swing voters in the dwindling number of swing states.
除了试图说服美国民众国势大好之外，拜登还将重点关注堕胎权的斗争，最重要的是，指望借助特朗普越发不得人心的趋势来激励沮丧的民主党人，并在摇摆州数量不断减少的情况下，赢得越来越多的摇摆选民。
“Don’t compare me to the Almighty,” Mr Biden likes to say. “Compare me to the alternative.” Well, Mr Biden will probably lose if Republicans prove sane enough to supply an alternative such as Nikki Haley, a former governor of South Carolina, and the candidate who called out Mr Trump’s unpopularity. But he could well lose anyway. Democrat or not, anyone committed to the success of the American experiment should be hoping for a Republican nominee not named Trump.
拜登喜欢说：“不要把我和全能的上帝相提并论，拿我和竞选对手作比较。”好吧，如果共和党人足够理智，拿出曾指责特朗普不得人心的前南卡罗莱纳州长尼基•黑利（Nikki Haley）这样的替代人选，拜登很可能会输掉竞选。但无论如何，他都很有可能落选。无论是否是民主党人，任何一个想要迎来可靠领袖的美国人都应该希望出现一个不叫“特朗普”的共和党候选人。
Charlie，往者不谏，来者可追
Benjamin，初学翻译的翻译小学生
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Vince，语言是前进路上的一道光
Yuqing，女，理想主义体验派，经济学人读者
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