当心卢德主义卷土重来 | 经济学人（感想超赞）

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2023-08-26 03:08

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Beware the way of the Luddite

当心卢德主义卷土重来

英文部分选自经济学人20230819期讣告板块

Schumpeter

熊彼特专栏

Beware the way of the Luddite

当心卢德主义卷土重来

America's unions must work with technological change, not against it

美国的工会组织应该与科技革新联动，而非抵制。

For more than 200 years Luddites have received bad press—worse even than the British Members of Parliament who voted in 1812 to put to death convicted machine-breakers. Yet even at the time, the aggrieved weavers won popular sympathy, including that of Lord Byron. In an “Ode to Framers of the Frame Bill” the poet wrote: “Some folks for certain have thought it was shocking/ When Famine appeals, and when Poverty groans/ That life should be valued at less than a stocking/ And breaking of frames lead to breaking of bones.” He used his maiden speech in the House of Lords to urge for a mixture of “conciliation and firmness” in dealing with the mob, rather than lopping off its “superfluous heads”.

两百多年来，“卢德分子”的形象都是负面的，比1812年投票要把破坏机器的工人处死的英国国会议员的形象还要差。然而即使在彼时，群情激奋的纺织工人也博得了广泛的同情，连拜伦勋爵也表达了怜悯。在《"编织机法案"编制者颂》这首诗中，拜伦勋爵写道：

一定有人会感到惊诧：
在百姓啼饥号寒的时候，
人命竟不值一双长袜。
打烂机器的该打断骨头。

他在上议院的初次演说中便呼吁：和暴民交涉时应该“要施以抚慰又要立场坚定”，而不是一味“大开杀戒”。

注释：

1. Luddit：卢德主义者，或译勒德分子、卢德分子，是19世纪英国民间对抗工业革命、反对纺织工业化的社会运动者。在该运动中，常常发生毁坏纺织机的事件。这是因为工业革命运用机器大量取代人力劳作，使许多手工工人失业。后世也将反对任何新科技的人称做卢德主义者。

2. Lord Byron：乔治·戈登·拜伦，第六代拜伦男爵，中文又译“摆伦”，出生于英格兰伦敦，逝世于希腊，英国诗人、革命家，独领风骚的浪漫主义文学泰斗。世袭男爵，人称“拜伦勋爵”。

Once again, technological upheaval is rife and there is a widespread feeling that the old ways are in danger of being trampled under foot by the march of progress. In America two big labour disputes—one looming, the other well under way—are, among other things, grappling with potentially seismic transformations caused by decarbonisation and artificial intelligence (ai).

历史似乎要重演：科技引发了深刻变革，人们普遍认识到旧有事物岌岌可危，即将泯灭在发展的洪流中。在美国，一场劳资纷争正在上演，一场正在酝酿，而二者都围绕着面临脱碳和人工智能可能会带来翻天覆地的变化该如何应对展开。

The United Auto Workers (uaw) union, representing employees of Ford, General Motors and Stellantis (maker of Chrysler and Fiat), is threatening a strike when labour contracts end on September 14th.As well as fighting for sharply higher pay, one of its goals is to extend wages and other benefits offered in conventional car manufacturing to people working on electric vehicles (evs), the production of which typically uses more robots and fewer blue-collar workers. Over in Hollywood, writers and actors are at an impasse with studios over pay and conditions in the streaming era, a dispute that has been muddied by the vexing question of how ai will reshape the industry if new tools can be used to write scripts or simulate actors. Such struggles may shape how workers in other industries view the impact of technology on their jobs.

代表福特汽车、通用汽车和斯特兰蒂斯（克莱斯勒和菲亚特的制造厂商）雇员的美国汽车工人联合会（UAW）扬言在劳资合9月14日到期后会举行罢工。除了争取大幅涨薪外，UAW的一大目标是让电车制造企业的雇员享有传统车企雇员的薪资福利待遇。相比传统车企，电动车生产更倚重机器人，需要的蓝领工人更少。而在好莱坞，编剧和演员与影视制片公司就流媒体时代演艺人员薪资待遇的博弈陷入僵局。如果能使用新的工具撰写剧本，模拟演员，那么人工智能将如何重塑演艺行业的尖锐问题让当前局面更加扑朔迷离。此类抗争（的结果）可能会左右其他行业的从业人员对工作受科技冲击的看法。

A new generation of union leaders has come out swinging.Shawn Fain is the first president of the uaw in 70 years to emerge from outside the union’s ruling clique. He was elected in March by the rank and file, after a years-long corruption scandal led to a change in the union’s voting procedures. From the start, Mr Fain has cast himself as a firebrand. He publicly threw a bargaining proposal from Stellantis into the bin. (The biggest shareholder in the firm, Exor, part-owns The Economist’s parent company.) Meanwhile, the Writers Guild of America and sag-aftra, which represents actors, have gone on strike simultaneously for the first time in more than 60 years. Fran Drescher, leader of the actors’ guild (and star of “The Nanny”, a 1990s sitcom) has made clear that the showdown is part of a wider struggle. “The eyes of labour are upon us,” she said in a thundering speech announcing the strike.

新一代工会领导选择挺身而出。肖恩·费恩（Shawn Fain）是UAW 70年来首位非工会管理层出身的主席。持续数年的腐败丑闻曝光后工会被迫修改了投票程序，所以费恩得以在3月的直接选举中一举胜出。从一开始费恩就将自己塑造为一个煽动者，曾当众将斯特兰蒂斯拟定的谈判协议丢进垃圾箱。（斯特兰蒂斯的最大股东Exor集团持有《经济学人》母公司的部分股权。）与此同时，美国编剧协会（Writers Guild of America）和代表演员权益的演员工会（SAG-AFTRA）举行了60余年来的首次罢工。曾主演上世纪90年代情景喜剧《天才保姆》的演员工会主席弗朗·德雷舍尔（Fran Drescher）明确表示，此次罢工是更广泛斗争的一部分。她在演讲中掷地有声地宣布罢工，称“劳动者的眼睛正看着我们。”

The fights are taking place in an unusually supportive environment for unions. Late last month more than half of the Senate’s Democrats signed a letter to the “Big Three” carmakers arguing that workers at their battery plants should be eligible for the same deal offered to other uaw members. President Joe Biden, who equates “good” jobs with union jobs, has just reinstated a rule shelved during the Reagan administration that will, in effect, boost wages for construction workers on government-backed projects. Nationwide, public support for unions is at 71%, its highest level since the mid-1960s, according to Gallup, a pollster. Both in Detroit and in Hollywood, unions are tapping into growing popular disquiet over ballooning pay for ceos. Even the Republicans, though vehemently anti-union, are trying to rebrand their relationship with workers. American Compass, a conservative think-tank, calls for the creation of worker-management committees, similar to Europe’s “work councils”, which give employees a voice in how a business is run.

当下的环境对工会开展斗争非常有利。上月底，参议院超半数民主党人联名签署了一封致汽车制造业“三巨头”的信，主张蓄电池厂雇员应该与UAW的其他会员享受相同的待遇。拜登总统称工会工作是“好工作”，还刚刚恢复了一项里根政府搁置的规定，提高政府建设项目中建筑工人的工资。根据盖洛普民意调查数据，工会在全国范围获得的支持率是71%，达到上世纪60年代中期以来的最高水平。无论在底特律，还是在好莱坞，工会都充分利用了公众对高管工资飞涨日渐累积的不满情绪。甚至强烈反对工会的共和党人也正在努力修复与工人的关系。保守派智库美国指南针（American Compass）呼吁建立工人管理委员会，该委员会类似欧洲的“工作委员会”（work councils），让雇员在企业运营中拥有话语权。

Some academics contend that workers are right to be wary of technological change. “Power and Progress”, a newish book by Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson, both of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, wades through a thousand years of history to argue that new technologies lead to better livelihoods only when they create jobs, rather than just cost savings, and when countervailing forces, such as unions, shape their effect. It berates techno-optimism, and at times sounds like a Luddites’ manifesto.

一些学者认为工人对技术变革保持警惕是对的。麻省理工学院经济学家达伦·阿西莫格鲁（Daron Acemoglu）和西蒙·约翰逊（Simon Johnson）最近出版的《权力与进步》一书梳理了近千年的历史，提出新技术改善人民生活的前提是：一必须创造新的就业，而非仅仅节约成本；其二，有工会等抗衡性力量引导科技的影响。这一理论斥责了技术乐观主义，有时听起来像是卢德主义的宣言。

Speaking to your columnist, Mr Johnson expresses optimism that the uaw and the Big Three can find a way to ensure the switch to evs does not lead to widespread job losses. He points to the eventual embrace by unions of the containerisation of shipping, which saved countless hours of labour at ports but also led to a surge in the amount of cargo that passed through them, preserving jobs and benefits for dockers. In theory, as ev production scales up, prices will come down and more drivers will buy them. If they put their feet on the gas the Big Three may even be able to reverse the decline in America’s car exports, fuelling demand for even more workers. Massive subsidies handed out by the Biden administration to promote ev production afford the industry a rare opportunity to regain the initiative.

接受本专栏作者采访时，约翰逊乐观地表示UAW和汽车三巨头能够找到方法以确保向电动汽车的转型不会引发大规模失业。他指出，工会最终接受了海运集装箱化，这不仅大幅缩减了港口工人的劳动时间，也使得过港货物数量激增，保住了码头工人的饭碗和福利。理论上，电动汽车生产规模的扩大会造成价格不断下降，从而吸引更多人购买电动汽车。如果三巨头继续努力，甚至有可能扭转美国汽车出口的下滑趋势，从而需要招募更多的工人。拜登政府为促进电动汽车生产颁布的巨额补贴为汽车行业夺回主动权提供了难得的机会。

Bish, bash, bot

俯仰之间，变故已生

By contrast, Mr Johnson’s prognosis for writers and actors in the age of ai is darker, likening their plight to that of the weavers-cum-Luddites whose jobs were rendered unnecessary by machines. That view helps explain why they are seeking to curtail studios’ use of ai. Yet the technology’s impact on Tinseltown need not be zero-sum. By speeding up the writing process, for instance, ai could lower costs and allow more content to be created.

相比之下，约翰逊对人工智能时代编剧和演员境况的预测就比较悲观了。他认为编剧和演员面临的困境同那些被机器抢了饭碗的纺织工人兼卢德分子差不多。这种观点可以解释编剧和演员正在争取限制制片公司使用人工智能的原因。然而，技术对好莱坞的影响不一定是一个零和游戏。例如，人工智能可以通过加快写作过程降低成本，创造更多的内容。

What’s more,the gales of creative destruction can be held back only for so long. For unions to secure their members’ livelihoods they need to work with technological change, rather than against it. That means using a Byronesque combination of conciliation and firmness to ensure that it is used to grow the pie for everyone, rather than doubling down on anti-corporate rage. If not they may end up, like the Luddites, on the wrong side of history.

更重要的是，创造性破坏的狂风呼之欲出、势不可挡。工会要想保障成员的生计，就得顺应技术变革而非反对它。也就是说，工会要采用拜伦式的和解与坚定相结合的方式，确保技术变革能做大蛋糕让大家获利，而不是让员工对企业的不满持续发酵。否则，工会可能会像卢德分子一样，同历史的洪流背道而驰。

注：创造性破坏（creative destruction）：美籍奥地利经济学家约瑟夫·熊彼特于20世纪40年代提出，指优秀的企业家会通过创新打破市场现状，获取超额利润，击败守成企业，淘汰既有的生产技术或组织架构，推进经济增长。（详见“创造性破坏：经济发展的主角”，《经济观察报》）

翻译组：

Alex，不务正业的理工男

Lee，爱骑行的妇女之友+Timberland粉

Cassie，准MTI，一心想吃口译面，早日坐进小黑屋

校对组：

UU，允许别人做别人，允许自己做自己

Nikolae，新手人民教师，声优探索者，乃木坂47与AKB49

Rachel，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译（年年备战一口）

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本周感想
Vicky，少儿英语老师+笔译新人

与时代共舞之老刘同志

老刘同志是我妈妈的弟弟，在我们东北，我叫他老舅。

老刘同志是大学生，在他那个年代考上大学，毕业后进入国企工作，那不是走向人生巅峰，那，就是人生巅峰。

可是老刘同志在进入国企之后，没过多久就毅然决然走上了旁人从未设想的道路。他敏锐地察觉到了保险业的兴起，在平安保险的初创期，从国企离职，加入了平安。平安的初创期，那个时候跟人家提买保险，就像现在你跟人家说去缅北一样，是十足十的诈骗集团。身边的家人都不能理解他的选择，觉得这个最小的弟弟，放着被人尊敬的金饭碗不要，一定要走街串巷受尽白眼地去做一件莫名其妙的事情，交完2、30年才给钱，这种骗人的东西，能做起来才有鬼吧？钱为什么不放银行？放在什么平安保险公司？那是什么东西？2、30年之后，这家平安保险公司怕不是都要倒闭了吧...

后来的故事，大家就都知道了，至于老刘同志做的有多好呢？这么说吧，他是手握平安原始股的男人...

后来的20多年就是老刘同志和中国保险行业共同起飞的岁月了，转眼来到老刘同志快退休的时候，正好遇到表妹远嫁法国，老刘同志就提前办了退休，跟妹妹一起去了法国定居，后来又去到了卢森堡。我以为老刘同志这一生的故事，大概接下来的剧情就是定居海外，过一个闲云野鹤富裕老头的快乐生活了吧。

哦不，老刘同志是闲不住的。到了欧洲后，老刘同志，这个一句英语不会说的人，买了自行车，买了专业的拍摄设备，开始全欧洲自由行，然后拍一些视频，对的，你猜的没错，老刘同志开始玩起了抖音。亲眼见证他的视频从一开始的手机抖拍，到后来配乐、滤镜、文案越来越专业，再后来他开始了直播，经常在抖音上听到他一本正经操着一口东北普通话向“老铁们”介绍欧洲的历史、文化、建筑、风俗，那虽然不是最专业但是一定是最真诚的声音，每次都能让我深深佩服和感动。而老刘同志的成绩，在距离他离开国企加入平安多年之后，再次震撼所有认识他的人，抖音累计粉丝10W+，被微信视频号邀请签约入驻成为专业直播主，然后成立旅游公司，经营欧洲深度游业务，今年疫情结束一开放，已经招满了三团旅游团的业务...