活到120，梦想照进现实 | 经济学人社论（感想超级赞）

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Leaders | Elixir of life

社论 | 长生不老药

Leaders | Elixir of life

社论 | 长生不老药

Living to 120 is becoming an imaginable prospect

活到120，梦想照进现实

Efforts to slow ageing are taking wing

延缓衰老研究不断取得新成果

Want to live longer? For centuries the attempt to stop ageing was the preserveof charlatans touting the benefits of mercury and arsenic, or assortments of herbs and pills, often to disastrous effect. Yet after years of false starts, the idea of a genuine elixir of longevity is taking wing. Behind it is a coterie of fascinated and ambitious scientists and enthusiastic and self-interested billionaires. Increasingly, they are being joined by ordinary folk who have come to think that the right behaviour and drugs could add years, maybe decades, to their lives.

想延年益寿吗？几百年来，妄图长生不老的都是江湖骗子，他们大肆吹嘘水银砒霜，或是各种灵丹妙药，结果却往往南辕北辙。然而，在长久以来的求而不得之后，真正能够延长寿命的理念正悄然兴起。除了一群醉心于此、雄心勃勃的科学家和兴致盎然、自利使然的亿万富翁外，普通民众也纷纷加入了他们的行列，认为正确的行为习惯和药物可以让他们延长几年甚至几十年寿命。

Living to 100 today is not unheard of, but is still rare. In America and Britain centenarians make up around 0.03% of the population. Should the latest efforts to prolong life reach their potential, living to see your 100th birthday could become the norm; making it to 120 could become a perfectly reasonable aspiration.

时至今日，长命百岁并非虚言，但仍很罕见。美国和英国的百岁老人只占总人口的0.03%。如果那些致力于长寿研究的最新成果能够发挥其潜力，活到 100 岁可能会成为常态；活到 120 岁可能也会是完全合理的愿望。

More exciting still, those extra years would be healthy. What progress has been made in expanding lifespans has so far come by countering the causes of death, especially infectious disease. The process of ageing itself, with its attendant ills such as dementia, has not yet been slowed. This time, that is the intention.

更激动人心的是，在生命延长的岁月里，人们将会是健康的。迄今为止，延长寿命都是通过消减死亡因素（特别是传染病）来实现的。衰老本身并未减缓，伴随其而来的有痴呆症等疾病。而这一次的意图正是减缓衰老进程。

The idea, as we set out in our Technology Quarterly, is to manipulate biological processes associated with ageing that, when dampened in laboratory animals, seem to extend their lives. Some of these are familiar, such as severely restricting the number of calories an animal consumes as part of an otherwise balanced diet. Living such a calorie-restricted life is too much to ask of most people; but drugs that affect the relevant biological pathways appear to bring similar results. One is metformin, which has been approved for use against type-2 diabetes; another is rapamycin, an immunosuppressant used in organ transplants. Early adopters are starting to take these drugs “off label”, off their own bat or by signing what amount to servicing contracts with a new class of longevity firms.

我们已在《经济学人》的《科技季刊》中阐述过这一观点。通过操控与衰老相关的生物过程，抑制其在实验动物的作用，似乎可以延长动物的寿命。其中一些办法是人们熟知的，例如严格限制摄入卡路里，实现均衡饮食。对大多数人而言，这种限制卡路里的生活方式太过苛刻。不过，对相关生物过程起作用的药物似乎也有类似效果。一种是二甲双胍，已被批准用于治疗2型糖尿病；另一种是雷帕霉素，一种用于器官移植的免疫抑制剂。早期服用者开始把这些药物用于非正规用途。有些人是自发服用，有些则是根据与新型长寿公司签订相当于服务合同的协议来服用。

注释：

Off-label：ADJ/ADV (of a prescription drug) relating to use, or being used, in ways for which it has not been approved.

Another path is to develop drugs that kill “senescent” cells for which the body has no further use. The natural means for disposing of these cells, like a number of other repair mechanisms, themselves weaken with age. Giving them a helping hand is not just a matter of tidying up. Senescent cells cause all sorts of malfunctions in their healthy neighbours. “Senolytic” drugs which target them pose obvious risks: it is hard to kill off one type of cell without inconveniencing others. But the promise is clear.

另一种延长寿命的方法，是研发药物来杀死那些对身体已无用处的“衰老”细胞。随着年龄增长，淘汰衰老细胞的自然机制也会逐渐衰退，如同其他很多修复机制一样。为这些机制提供助力，不仅仅是清除废物那么简单，因为衰老细胞会导致周围健康细胞的各种功能失调。针对这些衰老细胞的“抗衰老”药物也存在明显风险：只杀死某种细胞而不影响其他细胞，这是很难的。不过，前景目标是明确的。

For true believers that is just the beginning. Groups of academic and commercial researchers are studying how to rejuvenate cells and tissues by changing the “epigenetic” markers on chromosomes, which tell cells which genes they should activate. These markers accumulate with age; strip them back and you might produce the cells of a 20-year-old body inside one that is in fact 65. Mimicking calorie restriction and clearing out senescent cells would delay ageing. Boosters claim that epigenetic rejuvenation could halt or reverse it.

对于笃信延寿可能性的人来说，这仅仅是开始。学术界和商业界的多个研究团队正在研究怎样通过改变染色体上的“表观遗传”标记来恢复细胞和组织的活力。这些标记告诉细胞应该激活哪些基因，但随年龄增长，标记自身数量会增多；控制这些标记的数量增长，就有可能让实际年龄65岁的人体内产生20岁的人体细胞。模拟控制热量和清除衰老细胞能够延缓衰老。表观遗传延缓衰老论的支持者声称，这种方法能够阻止甚至逆转衰老。

One cause for concern is people’s brains. Slowing bodily ageing will not change the fact that the brain has a finite capacity, and is presumably adapted by natural selection to conventional lifespans. This is quite separate from worries about dementia, which is caused by specific diseases. Society will thus have to find ways to adapt to the normal ageing in brains: centenarians may, for instance, find themselves increasingly occupied with asking their ai diary assistants questions for which once they would have remembered the answer.

人类大脑是人们担忧的一个原因。延缓身体衰老并不能改变大脑容量有限的事实，而且大脑因自然选择可能已经适应了常规寿命。这与对痴呆症的担忧完全不同，痴呆症是由特定疾病引起的。而且正常衰老则是像百岁老人那样，花越来越多的时间在人工智能日记助理上，问一些曾经熟知答案的问题。因此，我们必须找到可以适应大脑正常衰老的方法。

An even greater concern is that none of these ideas has yet been tested formally on people. That is partly because drug-approval agencies do not yet recognise old age as a treatable condition, making trials hard to register. By their very nature, such trials must follow thousands of people over many years, adding to their cost and complexity. The lack of testing is also partly because many of the initial proposals use out-of-patent molecules that are of little interest to drug companies. Nevertheless some trials are now in the works. The Targeting Ageing with Metformin trial (tame) will follow 3,000 Americans in their 60s and 70s to see whether the drug does in fact aid survival overall. Such studies will necessarily take time. But more of them are needed, and governments should be helping bring them about.

更令人担忧的是，这些延缓衰老的方法从来没有在人体上正式试验过。部分原因是，药物审批机构暂时还不认为衰老是可医治的，因此相关试验很难注册。而且这类试验本质上需要持续跟踪数千人多年，这增加了其成本和复杂性。试验匮乏的另一个原因是，很多初始研究计划使用未获专利的分子，药企并不感兴趣。尽管如此，仍有部分试验正在开展。“二甲双胍靶向衰老”（TAME）试验将跟踪3000名六七十岁的美国人，以观察二甲双胍是否真的能够普遍延长寿命。此类研究肯定仍需时日，但我们需要更多这样的研究，各国政府也应该给予支持。

Any development that causes people to live healthily for longer, and to take fuller advantage of what the world has to offer, is cause for cheer. Some people, observing billionaires’ interest in longevity-promoting startups, worry that the benefits will be captured mainly by the rich, leading to a class of long-lived Übermenschen lording it over short-lived ordinary folk. But technologies have a record of spreading, and cheapening as they do so. It is hard to imagine a privilege more likely to spark rebellion than a ruling class that hoards age-treatments to escape the great leveller.

任何能让人们更加健康、长寿以及更充分地享受世界资源的发展，都是振奋人心的。一些人注意到亿万富翁对致力于延长寿命的初创公司青睐有加，担心富人将会是主要受益群体，成为“长寿者”阶层，凌驾于短命的普通百姓之上。但事实证明，科技会不断传播，价格也会随传播而降低。没有什么特权比一个统治阶级为了逃避自然法则而加码抗衰老治疗更容易引发动乱了。

The fact of many people living much longer would have wide ramifications. Most obviously, working lives will be extended, as they have already as life expectancies have lengthened, and possibly even more so for women, who will lose less of their careers to having children, perhaps narrowing inequality in the workplace. Over time there could be deeper shifts. People who live longer may care more about threats that are further away, such as the state of the world in 2100. Longevity permits the patient accumulation of capital, a factor in the emergence of a middle class. And times when political power is exercised mainly by young men, such as the Middle Ages in Europe, tend to be more violent than when older, cooler heads prevail. Families will span even more generations and, presumably, larger networks of exes, half-siblings and quarter-cousins. Will that atomise them, or bring them together? Will a surfeit of centenarians marginalise the young, create a cult of youth—or both?

许多人更长寿的现象将产生广泛的影响。最显著的是，预期寿命的延长将导致工作年限随之延长，对女性来说可能更是如此，她们在职业生涯中因生育所受的损失将减少，这有望改善职场的不平等现象。随着时间的推移，可能会有更深层次的变化。长寿的人可能更关心遥远未来的威胁，例如关注到世界在2100年会变成什么样子。长寿也会促使人们耐心积累资本，而资本是催生中产阶级的因素之一。除此之外，那些主要由年轻人主导的时代往往比年长、头脑冷静的掌权者时代来得更暴力，中世纪的欧洲便是如此。一个家族将会经历更多的世代，可能会形成更广泛的关系网，由前妻前夫、同父异母的手足和表亲组成。他们会更分散，还是会更团结？过多的百岁老人会造成年轻人边缘化吗？还是会崇拜年轻？或是两者兼而有之?

For ever and a day

永恒和一日

People will seize on the elixir of life if it becomes available.Natural selection has no interest in indefinite longevity per se: the traits that spread best are those that make organisms fit in their prime; those that help them live on when reproduction is a distant memory must work through children and grandchildren. Yet the visceral drive to cling to life is the most basic trait of all. Indeed, it is prevailing today—to tantalising effect.

如果真的有长生不老药，人们会挤破头去抢。物竞天择本质上与无限长寿并无利害关系：遗传得最好的是那些能使生物体在壮年时期适应环境的特征；在繁衍后代成为遥远记忆之际，那些能帮助生物存活下去的特征必须通过子子孙孙代代相传。然而，眷恋生命的本能动力是所有特征中最基本的。事实上，它正盛行于世，令人心驰神往。

注释：

《永恒和一日》是西奥·安哲罗普洛斯执导的剧情片，该片讲述了患有癌症晚期的诗人亚历山大在进医院等待死亡的前一天，打点好行装，孤独地享受最后24小时的故事。该片于1998年在戛纳国际电影节首映。

翻译组：

Iris，博物馆小可爱

Pay，一个坚定远航的sailor

Humi，在躺平、侧卧和睡梦中寻找诗和远方

校对组：

Lucian，医学翻译，灵魂在杰作中冒险

Shulin，女， 热咖啡+保温杯，慢慢来er

Yuqing，女，理想主义体验派，经济学人读者

3

观点|评论|思考

本周感想

Forest，爱树的人，精神小花园持续耕耘中

（请注意，本篇感想有点。。。过长）

今天看罢本文，说实在的，我都不知道怎么写感想了。

但是我并不能现在再来请假，所以我也就只好老老实实记录一下看文章的感受。

首先，如果是我本人，我不知道我为什么需要活到120岁，我们家是长寿家族，我太太（外婆的妈妈）、外婆是96岁和90岁；我奶奶是105岁。虽然都有子女承欢膝下，但是到了老年，寂寞是自不待言的，更懂你的人都已经故去了。

今天晚上下班回家路上，出租车司机电话宽慰老妈说：“哎呀，你一个下午有三个老太太陪你玩，还有什么不满意的啊，你想啊，再有啥，三个人陪你玩一下午，你还赚了她们三一百块；什么时候你跟她们说一下啊，让她们三来陪我玩一下午，我给她们各一百块啊！”

O(∩_∩)O ~

人是生活在关系中的，如果不能大家都活到120岁，自己要活那么久，最好自己早早培养一个安静的乐子，比如读书，这个爱好还是不错的，不打扰人，而且可以永远继续下去。纵横千古，驰骋中外都没有问题，书架上有一千个都不止的人永远能够陪我们玩。没有人说话，那还可以自己写，权且当做无声地言语。

我已经在为长寿找理由了，不是吗？

实际上，我觉得如果不瞎折腾，真心想要长寿，活到九十、一百可能并不需要特别的医疗上的如此之巨的投入。人情绪平和，内心向善可能就很有效了，好心情是健康的良药，而且对人具有系统性的功效，其附加意义是并不要占用那么多的资源。

这一点是重要的，因为这个世界上，资源还是非常、非常稀缺的。

能够赠与，也许真的比期待那么多的得到，更让人幸福。

比如我看到这篇文章，告诉我们如此种种，咱们未来也搭便车更可能活得更久，我并没有多开心，但是看到另一文本，却使我开心了很久。所谓幸福的生活，不过就是有希望、有事做、能爱人吧。

好吧，我们就此荐书《三杯茶》：

以下转载自豆瓣 三杯茶 (豆瓣) (douban.com)
在巴基斯坦的世界中，“三杯茶”，是巴尔蒂人交朋友的方式。

第一杯茶，你是陌生人；

第二杯茶，你是我们的宾客；

第三杯茶，你是我们的家人，我们愿意为你做任何事，甚至是死。

当摩森顿于攀登K2峰迷路，科尔飞村居民拯救了他的生命。当地的居民生活艰困，糖是如此稀少珍贵，他们却为他煮了甜茶，让他恢复力气。此后，从第一杯茶到第三杯茶，从陌生人到愿意以生命守护彼此，“三杯茶”代表的是他们之间珍贵的信任，更是一生的承诺，也是一个旅人，改变世界的开始。

摩顿森原来是个登山家，1993为了纪念早逝的妹妹，展开了攀登世界第二高峰K2的旅程，却发生意外，与　队友们失去联络，只留下他一人，没有水也没有食物。十分幸运地，他在巴基斯坦山区的一个偏僻小村落被救起，而且在村民的细心照护下，身体得以康复。

那里景色如画，看似有如香格里拉般的人间仙境，但，却不是想象中的伊甸园。村民的善良所感动的摩顿森发现，村落里有三分之一的孩子活不过一岁生日，最近的医院得走上一星期的路，孩子们最大的愿望，是一间有屋顶的学校。在寒风里，当地小孩只能跪在户外霜冻的土地上，或坐在脏污的泥地上上课。村民穷到没钱聘请老师。摩顿森于是承诺，他一定会回来为他们办所学校……而他，并不是一个有钱人……

在过去的十二年，巴基斯坦、阿富汗及西藏山区，六十所学校陆续成立，最特别的是，这些学校让原本无法上学的女孩开始接受教育。摩顿森守护妹妹的信念，改变了一群女孩的生命，是她们不再藏匿于面纱之后，有勇气面对世界，甚至拥有改变世界的能力。

当我们怀疑，一个人的力量是否真的能改变世界时，摩顿森做到了。为了坚持理想，即使受到恋人的遗弃、社会的漠视、巴提人的拐骗，即使与妻儿分隔两地、被军阀囚禁，即使遭逢美国911事件、美国轰炸阿富汗，在悲伤、沮丧、孤独与滨临死亡之时，他从来没有遗忘他的承诺，他愿意用生命去化解世界上最大的仇恨。

作为登山者的摩顿森谈不上成功，但是他的人生却在另一座山峰登顶。

在后一次登顶中，他艰难地坚持着，也幸福地收获着。

能不能活到120岁那么久，到底有多少重要呢？

4

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