AI如何改变“成名”游戏 | 经济学人社论

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2023-11-15 01:11

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Angela， “如果这纷乱的世界让我沮丧，我就去看看她们眼中的光芒。”

精读|翻译|词组

Leaders | The omnistar is born

全能明星时代来临

英文部分选自经济学人202301111社论板块

Leaders | The omnistar is born

全能明星时代来临

How artificial intelligence will transform fame

人工智能将如何改变“成名”游戏

Those complaining the loudest about the new technology stand to benefit the most

对新技术抱怨最多的人反而受益最大

Computers havespent decades disrupting humdrum jobs. Now artificial intelligence (ai) is coming for the most glamorous ones. Hollywood has been at a standstill for half the year, until studios agreed on November 8th to offer striking stars protection from robotic rivals. Living artists were nudged down this week’s music charts by a dead Beatle, resurrected by ai. Actors like Scarlett Johansson and authors like John Grisham are suing tech firms over the unauthorised use of their image and words.

几十年来，计算机一直在颠覆单调枯燥的工作。现在，人工智能（AI）将向最光鲜亮丽的工作发起冲击。过去半年，好莱坞一直处于停摆状态，直至11月8日各家制片厂同意为颇有名气的明星提供保护，使其免受机器“对手”的冲击。在本周的音乐排行榜上，人工智能“复活”的一位披头士音乐家竟把在世的艺术家挤下榜单。斯嘉丽·约翰逊（Scarlett Johansson）等演员和约翰·格里森姆（John Grisham）等作家正在起诉科技公司未经授权使用他们的肖像和文字。

Stars may worry thatai is stealing their work and giving less talented performers the skills to snatch their audience. In fact, the famous folk complaining the loudest about the new technology are the ones who stand to benefit the most. Far from diluting star power, ai will make the biggest celebrities bigger than ever, by allowing them to be in all markets, in all formats, at all times. Put your hands together—or insert your earplugs if you prefer—for the rise of the omnistar.

明星们可能会担心，AI正在窃取自己的作品，并赋能才华较弱的表演者抢占市场。事实上，那些对新技术抱怨最多的名人正是最大的受益者。AI不仅不会稀释明星的影响力，反而会让巨星比以往任何时候都更加耀眼，因为AI可以让他们在任何时候以任何形式出现在所有市场上。请举起你的双手——需要的话戴上耳塞——来共同见证全能明星的崛起。

This is not the first time that technology has changed the rules of the fame game. People began to talk of stars in the 18th century, after the spread of reading made it possible to be truly famous within your lifetime. Film and radio initially seemed like a threat to stars, who worried that their live performances would be devalued. In fact, those technologies ushered in the era of the superstar, a term that caught on in the 1920s. A similar panic greeted the invention of television (and led to the last big Hollywood strike, in 1960). But again, the new tech made the famous even more so, bringing them into every living room. By the 1960s people were talking of megastars.

这并不是科技第一次改写成名游戏的规则了。18世纪，随着阅读的普及，在有生之年真正成名不再是痴人说梦，于是乎人们开始谈论起了明星。起初，电影和广播对明星而言，似乎是一种威胁，他们担心自己的现场表演会贬值。事实上，正是这些技术开创了“超级明星”时代，这个词在20世纪20年代开始流行起来。电视的发明也带来过类似的恐慌（并导致了1960年的好莱坞大罢工）。但是，新技术再一次让明星更加闪耀，让他们走进了千家万户。到了20世纪60年代，人们开始谈论“巨星”。

Asai-generated content floods into the entertainment business, the hardworking folk of Malibu are worrying once more that their fame will be diluted—and again, the outcome is likely to be the opposite. One of the paradoxes of the internet age is that, even as uploads to YouTube, TikTok and the like have created a vast “long tail” of user-made content, the biggest hits by the biggest artists have become even bigger. The number of musicians earning over $1,000 a year in royalties on Spotify has more than doubled in the past six years, but the number earning over $10m a year has quintupled. Even as niche content thrives—sea shanties, whistling and all kinds of eccentricities—Taylor Swift is marching through the most lucrative concert tour in history. It is the mid-ranking artists who have suffered.

看到大批AI生成内容涌入娱乐界，马里布（好莱坞明星聚居地）那些勤奋工作的艺人又开始担心自己的名声会被稀释——但这次八成又在杞人忧天了。互联网世代的一个悖论是，即便油管和抖音等平台早已拥有用户生成的海量“长尾”内容，但那些顶流艺人最火爆的作品却越来越火，热度不减反增。过去6年，Spotify平台上每年版税收入超1000美元的音乐人数早已翻番，但是年收入超过1千万美元的音乐人数竟是原来的五倍！虽然小众内容一片欣欣向荣，比如说水手歌、口哨曲和各种只有你想不到没有你找不到的奇葩体裁，但这依然挡不住霉霉（Taylor Swift）创造全球巡演史上的最高收益。真正受影响的是夹在中间的那批人。

注：长尾（英语：The Long Tail），或译长尾效应，最初由《连线》的总编辑克里斯·安德森（Chris Anderson）于2004年发表于自家的杂志中，用来描述诸如亚马逊公司、Netflix和Real.com/Rhapsody之类的网站之商业和经济模式。是指那些原来不受到重视的销量小但种类多的产品或服务由于总量巨大，累积起来的总收益超过主流产品的现象。

Similar patterns hold acrossentertainment. The number of feature films released each year has doubled in the past two decades, but the biggest blockbusters have simultaneously doubled their share of the total box office. A tide of self-published books has not eroded the sales of star writers. In a sea of choice audiences rely more on recommendations, both algorithmic and human, which funnel them towards the most popular content. ai promises even more choice, and thus even higher search costs for audiences, who will continue to gravitate to the handful of stars at the top.

整个娱乐业都能看到类似规律。过去20年来，每年发布的剧情片数量已翻番，但是大片占总票房的份额也翻了一番。不断涌现的自出版物也没有吃掉明星作家的销量。面对太多的选择，观众更多是依靠推荐，通过算法或口碑的引导在海量选择里捞取最流行的内容。有了AI，选择更多了，观众的搜索成本也更高了，所以观众还是会倾向选择顶流明星。

aiwill give these megastars the ability to be truly omnipresent for their fans. ai-powered dubbing is already allowing actors and podcasters to speak to foreign audiences instantly and in their own voice. It will soon be standard for video to be edited so that their lips match the new language, too. In-demand actors may get more work because ai removes the perennial Hollywood problem of crowded schedules, allowing stars to perform alongside each other while not being together at all. Digital Botox will increase actors’ shelf-life and even enable them to perform posthumously. Disney has acquired the rights to the voice of James Earl Jones, 92, so that Darth Vader can scare children for generations to come.

有了AI，这些巨星就像有了神明加持一样，可以真正做到无所不在。AI配音已经用在视听节目中，让演员和播主保留自己的声线直接用外语讲话。这种AI配音很快就会成为视频剪辑的标配，能在目的语里实现口型匹配。当红演员也就能接更多戏，因为有了AI的神通，好莱坞明星档期撞车的老问题也就解决了：多个明星的对手戏无需安排在同一档期，最后也能让八仙同时过海。这仿佛“数字肉毒杆菌”，可以增长演员保鲜期，身后继续演戏也不是梦。迪士尼领先一步，买下了92岁演员詹姆斯·厄尔·琼斯（James Earl Jones）的声音版权，黑武士达斯·维达（Darth Vader）的声音从此将永不落幕，让（小）观众继续战栗五百年。

Everything, everywhere, all at once

天涯海角，无时无刻，立等可享

Stars will also be able to perform for fans in formats that are only beginning to emerge. Theabba avatars that sell out a London arena seven times a week, and the celebrity-voiced chatbots recently launched by Meta, are just a taste of the ways in which the biggest stars will be able to satisfy—and monetise—their fans.

明星的表演形式也渐渐出现新模态。20世纪70年代的唱跳天团阿巴乐队（ABBA）虚拟化身演唱会燃爆伦敦，每周七场一票难求，Meta也在近日发布名人同款声音的聊天机器人，顶流明星今后将如何给粉丝——和自己——谋福利，答案不就在这里么？

These opportunities come with strings attached. Artists are right to worry about copyright, which must be protected ifai is not to become a legalised form of piracy. Past technologies were no different: the printing press led to the first copyright laws in the 18th century; royalty payments were rejigged in the 1960s to compensate big-screen actors whose work was shown on tv; the musical free-for-all unleashed by companies like Napster at the turn of the century eventually gave way to deals between streamers and record companies. Content creators have legitimate questions about permission and payment (we declare an interest here). Until those are answered, ai will be a legal Wild West.

这些机会并不是白给的。艺术家对版权问题的担忧合情合理，如果不保护好版权，AI将成为盗版的一种合法形式。正如过去的技术所示：印刷机让世界上第一部版权法于18世纪应运而生；20世纪60年代，电视播出了电影演员的作品，为了给予他们补偿，版权费进行了调整；世纪之交时，由Napster等公司引发的音乐自由潮最终演变成了流媒体与唱片公司间的交易。内容创作者有理由对许可和支付产生疑问（声明：此处存在利益关系）。如果不解决这一系列问题，AI将“无法无天”。

The bigger question is how the age of the omnistar will suit audiences. The risk is boredom.ai is brilliant at remixing and regurgitating old material, but less good at generating the pulse-racing, spine-tingling stuff that is, for now, a human speciality. ai output may nonetheless appeal to film studios, record labels and other creative middlemen, who prefer to minimise risk by sticking to tried-and-tested ideas. Hollywood already favours franchises over new work: witness the rash of sequels and reboots at the box office. ai will let studios apply the same principle to actors. A de-aged Luke Skywalker stars in Disney’s latest “Star Wars” spin-off. At present, audiences are wowed by such trickery. They may grow tired of it long before “Fast and Furious 94”.

更大的问题是，全能明星时代将如何迎合观众。内容老掉牙是一大风险。AI善于重新合成、机械照搬旧事物，但如果要创造一些令人脉搏加速、紧张刺激的东西，表现则不尽如人意，毕竟这目前是人类的专长。尽管如此，AI生成内容可能会吸引电影公司、唱片公司以及其他创意产业的中间商，他们更愿意采用屡试不爽的想法，力求实现风险最小化。好莱坞已然更为青睐系列作而非新作品，这点从诸多电影续集和重启的票房大卖中便可见一斑。有于AI，电影公司会将同样的原则用于演员身上。在迪士尼最新的《星球大战》（Star Wars）衍生剧中，观众看到的是一个更为年轻的主角卢克·天行者（Luke Skywalker）。如今，观众为这类把戏叫绝，但远在《速度与激情94》上映之前，他们可能就会对此厌倦。

注释：重启（Reboot）是一种创作形式，全称是“重新启动”，日本称之为“再起动”。意思是抛弃已经建立好的原有设定（如时间线、故事背景、人物等），删去与前作有关的连续性联系，但会保留一切必要的核心要素和概念，然后创造一个不同的作品。

Yet the entertainment market is strongly self-correcting. Audiences have the power to turn a hot property into a has-been in an instant, as stars are all too aware. And even asai-powered entertainment grows, consumers still seem to relish human drama. Sport, perhaps the most ai-proof, flesh-and-bones spectacle there is, has seen its value to media companies soar in recent years (meanwhile, no one watches computer-powered chess, though its best players could beat any human). Moreover, ai will make entertainment’s long tail even longer, with deeper niches and more personalised content. In the ai age, audiences will face heavy bombardment from a handful of omnistars, from Taylor Swift to Darth Vader. But it will be easier than ever for them to change the channel.

然而，娱乐行业善于自我修正。无论是大红大紫还是迅速过气，都由观众说了算。对于这点，明星们深有体会。即便AI赋能的娱乐活动不断丰富，消费者似乎仍热衷于具有人情味且刺激的活动。体育赛事场面壮观，也许是最生龙活虎且最不容易被AI入侵的活动。对于媒体公司来说，近年来体育市场一直在增值（尽管没有人类能下过最厉害的机器棋手，但没人会看机器下棋）。此外，AI还将进一步扩大娱乐业的长尾效应，带来更大的商机和更为个性化的内容。从霉霉到达斯·维达，在AI时代，观众目之所及都是这几个全能明星，不过换台倒是比以往来得更容易。

翻译组：

Tera，一口

Alfredo，小小少年，很多烦恼

Yuqing，女，理想主义体验派，经济学人读者

校对组：

Cecilia，今年生活得贵妇一点

Colin，男，崇拜科比的一枚小翻译

Clark，愿以此功德回向给众生，离苦得乐

观点|评论|思考

本周感想

VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

最近心情并不平静，因为近期的GOTY基本都会倾向于博德之门3，虽然我也知道王国之泪也许很高，但和前者比，也许大概是稍逊一筹。作为一名多年资浅的任豚，这种没有办法的无奈才是真正伤人且憋屈的。就是怀着此种心情，我评论着AI对于未来游戏可能的改变。

很多时候，游戏的变化，尤其是游戏玩法和表现方式的改变，并非取决于技术本身，而是一种综合的结果：文化、技术、体验性，甚至是颠覆性游戏出现在何种平台，都可能会左右其中。

我们之中很多人（明显并不包括我）都会想象着美好的未来，单单AI换脸这项，就让人遐想连篇。但是正如上面所言，宅男们的想法并不重要，硬核玩家的需求也不是游戏厂家的最主要考量。游戏玩家想象着的是如同大表哥2之类既叫好又卖座的大作，而不是某个亚运会第三名的不可言语游戏。现实却是，抽抽抽的横行霸道，是兄弟就砍我几刀的老板们乐此不疲。

我们从来不能对于游戏玩家的需求分高下好坏，这也许是个道德问题，也许是个立场问题，但绝不是一个技术问题。所以此时，是否赚钱，赚多少钱就成为了重要的衡量标准，甚至是唯一标准。AI技术充其量只不过是一种技术方面的革新，也许会产生许多新的玩法和游戏体验，但是就满足人性而言，AI的效果并不会太明显。也许我们打一千次游戏会生成一千种情节和对话，但我们仍然会厌倦，因为这就是人性的一部分。

当我们以有限的生命应对无穷的游戏可能时，我们只能做出选择：要么像我一样云游戏（看主播玩），要么就选择自己喜欢的。哪怕是人见人爱的小黄油，也会有倦了的一天。

个人认为AI的未来是灰色的。

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