基辛格外交：平衡利益、价值与武力 | 经济学人社论

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2023-12-08 04:12

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Leaders | Superpower politics

社论 | 大国政治

英文部分选自经济学人202301202社论板块

Leaders | Superpower politics

社论 | 大国政治

What does Henry Kissinger’s diplomacy have to teach the world?

亨利·基辛格的外交政策对世界有何启示？

A grasp of the subtle interplay between interests, values and the use of force is still useful

理解利益、价值观和武力之间的微妙关系，依旧很有用

For someone who promoted his own views so tirelessly, Henry Kissinger was surprisingly misunderstood. Many see him as the arch-exponent of an amoral realism that tarnishes America. Sure enough, like any diplomat, he lied for his country (and occasionally himself). More disturbingly, he was willing to see tens of thousands of people killed if he thought that the national interest demanded it. Yet what distinguishes Mr Kissinger, who died this week aged 100, was not only his realpolitik, but the fact that his practice of diplomacy was also shot through with idealism. It is a style that still holds valuable lessons today.

亨利·基辛格（Henry Kissinger）宣扬自己的主张从来是不遗余力，然而人们对他仍然有着深深的误解。许多人将其视为有损美国声名的无道德现实主义的死硬拥趸。的确，和所有外交官一样，他也曾为自己的国家（偶尔也为自己）编织谎言。更令人不安的是，基辛格乐见成千上万人送命，只要他认为这是国家利益所需。基辛格于本周去世，享年100岁，他的与众不同之处，不仅在于他的现实政治，还在于贯穿在其外交实践中的理想主义。这种政治风格至今仍具有宝贵的借鉴意义。

注释：现实政治（德语：Realpolitik）源自十九世纪德国，由古代德国（普鲁士）铁血宰相奥托·冯·俾斯麦所提出，当代英文相关讨论沿用德文之Realpolitik。

The would-be Kissingers in the Biden White House (and they exist) confront some daunting challenges. The rivalry between China and America is increasingly poisonous. Bitter wars rage in Ukraine and Gaza. Political divisions are tearing apart Western democracies. Hard-to-solve global issues, such as how to curb climate change and minimise the risks of artificial intelligence, are piling up.

拜登政府中的新一代基辛格们（确有其人）面临着严峻的挑战：中美对抗带来的负面影响日益显著。乌克兰和加沙地带硝烟弥漫，战事惨烈。政治分歧正在撕裂西方民主国家。如何遏制气候变化、将人工智能风险降到最低等棘手的全球性问题，也越积越多。

Speaking to The Economist in April, Mr Kissinger himself seemed almost overwhelmed. But his central theme cut to the heart of his idealism. His life’s work, he said, had been devoted to preventing a repeat of the wars in 1914-18 and 1939-45 that had destroyed his childhood in Germany and much of the world besides. Today that means keeping the peace between China and America.

在今年四月接受《经济学人》采访时，基辛格似乎也对错综复杂的形势感到无措。但话里话外，他仍没有放下自己的理想主义。基辛格表示，1914-1918年和1939-1945年的两次大战摧毁了他在德国的童年以及大半个世界，他一生都在致力于避免世界大战的重演。而如今，这意味着维持中美之间的和平。

His method still bears examination. It starts with dispassionate analysis. In his later years, Mr Kissinger was often criticised for being soft on China. But his concern was to see off the thinking that portrayed it as a rising power like the Kaiser’s Germany, bent on expansion. China, he countered, saw the rules-based order as America’s rules and America’s order. It wanted room to adjust, not to overturn the system altogether.

他的方法在今天仍有价值。冷静的分析是第一步。晚年的基辛格常因对华软弱而遭到攻讦。但他所关注的，是纠正人们的错误看法，停止将ZG视作德意志第二帝国那样急于扩张的新兴强权。他反驳说，在ZG看来，所谓“基于规则的国际秩序”不过是美国制定的规则和秩序。ZG并不谋求推翻整个秩序；它只希望能加以调整。

Dispassionate analysis leads to Mr Kissinger’s next prescription, to live and let live. Drawing on his study of 19th-century European diplomacy, he argued that stability required states to tolerate each other’s differences. The main threat to peace comes not from realists, he thought, but from zealots and proselytisers who are quick to condemn and who demand change over a point of principle. Hence Mr Kissinger recommended that China and America talk, quietly at first, to build trust and that they avoid issues, like trade and Taiwan, where differences are unbridgeable.

冷静分析之后，基辛格提出了下一个建议：求同存异。基于他对19世纪欧洲外交的研究，他认为，只有各个国家包容彼此的差异，才能构建稳定。在他看来，真正威胁和平的不是现实主义者，而是那些动辄大加挞伐、死守原则且罔顾现实的狂热分子和福音战士。因此，基辛格建议中美之间首先进行低调的对话以建立信任，并暂时搁置无法调和的问题，如贸易争端和台湾问题。

Analysis and tolerance are fortified by Mr Kissinger’s call for military deterrence. America’s assessment of China may be wrong or it may go out of date. The attempt to co-exist could founder. If so, what ultimately keeps the peace is the threat of war and the willingness to carry it through.

基辛格所呼吁的武力威慑使双方更加理性、更加包容。美国对ZG的认知可能存在偏差，或者已经过时。共存的努力可能会失败。如果真是这样，和平最终只能靠开战的威胁和开战的决心来维系。

Mr Kissinger’s many critics hold him responsible for an orgy of killing in Cambodia and Bangladesh in the 1970s, as well as for helping topple elected governments. He retorted that everything had to be subordinate to peace between America and the Soviet Union. The idea that he was acting out of necessity is a sweeping and unknowable claim. However, as the world’s reaction to Israel’s strikes on Gaza shows, his readiness to sacrifice human life in the search for stability would probably be seen as intolerable today.

许多批评基辛格的人认为，他对上世纪70年代柬埔寨和孟加拉国的血腥残杀负有责任，还导演了许多民选政府的倒台。对此，基辛格的反驳是，一切都必须让位于美苏之间的和平。有人认为他是出于必要而采取行动，这种观点过于笼统而无依据。无论如何，从世界对以色列袭击加沙的反应来看，基辛格以人命换稳定的想法，在当下可能是无法容忍的。

In other ways, too, Kissingerian diplomacy is harder now than when he was shuttling around the Middle East as secretary of state. Secret back-channel meetings end up being plastered on TikTok. The world cannot so easily be ordered according to a hierarchy of Soviet- and American-backed allies and clients. It is multipolar. For all that, it would be a pity if Mr Kissinger’s vision of diplomacy died with him. A dangerous world sorely needs his grasp of the subtle interplay between interests, values and the use of force. The search for stability must go on without him.

在其他方面也是一样：相比于他本人作为国务卿在中东穿梭斡旋的时代，如今基辛格式外交更难实现了。秘密的私下会晤最终却在TikTok上刷屏。世界不再能够按照美苏、美苏盟友、美苏附庸的等第顺序来规整；当今的世界是多极的世界。尽管如此，如果基辛格的外交愿景也随他而消亡，那将令人分外遗憾。这个危险的世界迫切需要他那种对利益、价值观和武力之间微妙作用的理解。纵使斯人已逝，我们也必须继续追寻稳定。

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Yo，女，种下过流星，立志不做大鸵鸟

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