日本：腐肉不去，新肌难生 | 经济学人社论 (超赞）
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Leaders | Inflated hopes
社论|通胀希望
英文部分选自经济学人202301118社论板块
Leaders | Inflated hopes
社论|通胀希望
Will Japan rediscover its dynamism?
日本能否重新找到发展动力？
Rising prices and animal spirits give it a long-awaited opportunity
物价上升和动物精神给日本带来了暌违已久的机会
注释：
animal spirits：在凯恩斯经济理论中，指情感感受和欲望（如乐观的积极行动意愿），影响消费者和投资者的经济行为。
Global investors are giddy about Japan again. Warren Buffett made his first visit to Tokyo in more than a decade this spring; he has built up big holdings in five trading houses that offer exposure to a cross-section of Japan Inc. Last month Larry Fink, ceo of BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, joined the pilgrimage to Japan’s capital. “History is repeating itself,” he told Kishida Fumio, the prime minister. He likened the moment to Japan’s “economic miracle” of the 1980s. Even disappointing gdp figures released on November 15th will not dent investors’ optimism.
日本市场又让全球投资者激动不已。今年春天，沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）时隔十余年再访东京，重仓加码日本五大商社，全面押注所谓“日本株式会社”（Japan Inc.）的各类产业。上个月，全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德集团的首席执行官拉里·芬克（Larry Fink）也远赴东京“朝圣”，在日本参加活动期间他对日本首相岸田文雄（Kishida Fumio）说“历史正在重现”，认为日本当下颇有上世纪八十年代“经济奇迹”的影子。日本11月15日发布的国内生产总值（GDP）数据虽令人失望，也无法削弱投资者的乐观情绪。
注释：
1.日本五大综合性商社：三井商社、三菱商事、伊藤忠商事、住友商事、丸红株式会社。
2.Japan Inc.：Japan Inc. is a descriptor for Japan’s modern, highly centralized economic system and development strategy of export-led growth. (source: investopedia)
Sceptics would say that the only history repeating itself is outsiders falling for yet another Japanese false dawn. The miracle of the 1980s ended with an asset bubble bursting and the country sliding into decades of deflation, or excessively low inflation, and stagnation. Every ten years or so since then, observers, this newspaper among them, have warmed to a new prime minister, identified promising signs of change and claimed to see the sun peeping over the horizon. Foreign investors flood back. Then a few years later they retreat, cold and disappointed. Is this latest promised dawn any different?
一些人对此表示怀疑，认为所谓历史重现，不过是外国投资者再次上当，又把日本经济的镜花水月当真了。上世纪八十年代的经济奇迹以资产泡沫破裂告终，日本经济也滑入长达几十年的通缩或过低的通胀，以及停滞。自此之后，每隔十年左右，包括本刊在内的观察者都会因新首相上任而产生期待，并发现一些积极迹象，宣称长夜将尽、旭日将升。随后，外国投资者如潮水般回到日本市场。几年过去，他们又满怀失望，冷漠地撤出。最近出现的曙光又有何不同？
It really could be. Two external shocks and two internal shifts have coincided to change the landscape for the Japanese economy. The most palpable shock has to do with prices. Whereas most countries have been obsessed with keeping inflation down in recent years, Japan has been hoping it might finally pick up—and stay up. Global supply squeezes and a weak exchange rate have duly done what years of audacious monetary easing could not achieve, and pushed the headline inflation rate over the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Admittedly, that is not the demand-driven inflation that the boj would like to see. Even so, it has changed how firms, workers and consumers think about prices and, crucially, wages. A path, albeit a narrow one, has opened to a healthier cycle of wage and consumption growth.
可能的确有所不同。两大外部冲击和两大内部转变交织叠加，改变了日本经济形势。最明显的冲击跟物价有关。近年来，大多数国家都执着于抑制通胀，而日本却一直希望通胀率最终能回升，然后保持通胀水平。全球供应紧缩和本币汇率疲软很好地实现了超宽松货币政策实施多年所未能实现的效果，使整体通胀率突破了日本央行设定的2％通胀目标。诚然，这并不是日本央行所乐见的需求拉动型通货膨胀。不过，当前的通胀局面已经扭转了国内企业、劳动者和消费者对物价和薪资（后者至关重要）的看法。道路虽窄，却为日本实现更健康的薪资和消费增长周期指明了方向。
注释：
1.You describe something as palpable when it is obvious or intense and easily noticed. 可感知的；易察觉的；明显的
2.Someone who is audacious takes risks in order to achieve something. 敢于冒险的；大胆的
3.Headline inflation（整体通胀） is the total inflation in an economy. The headline inflation figure includes inflation in a basket of goods that includes commodities like food and energy. It is different from core inflation（核心通胀）, which excludes food and energy prices while calculating inflation.
4.Demand-pull inflation（需求拉动型通货膨胀） causes upward pressure on prices due to shortages in supply. An increase in aggregate demand can also lead to this type of inflation.
The other shock is geopolitical. The war in Ukraine and the superpower stand-off have spurred a new wave of investment in critical industries and a reconfiguration of regional supply chains that Japan could benefit from.
另一大冲击则是地缘政治局势。俄乌冲突硝烟弥漫，超级大国僵持不下，掀起了一场
关键产业投资和区域供应链重组的新浪潮，日本能够从中获益。
注释：
1.reconfiguration n.the arrangement of parts or elements in a different form, figure, or combination重组
2.A stand-off is a stalemate or deadlock between two equally matched opponents in a dispute or conflict僵持
The internal shifts are subtler, but no less important. Corporate-governance reforms that began under a previous prime minister, Abe Shinzo, have become entrenched. Indeed, they have entered a promising new phase, as Japanese institutional investors—and even the Tokyo Stock Exchange—are putting more pressure on big companies to enhance their value.
相较于外部冲击，内部转变不那么明显，但却同等重要。当前，日本前任首相安倍晋三（Abe Shinzo）在任期间推行的企业治理改革成果得到巩固，日本机构投资者乃至东京证券交易所都在大力推动大企业提升市值，改革已经进入新阶段，前途一片光明。
注释：
1.subtle: not immediately obvious or noticeable. 不易察觉的;不明显的;微妙的
2.An institutional investor（机构投资者） is a company or organization that invests money on behalf of other people. Hedge funds, mutual funds, and endowments are examples of institutional investors.
3.Corporate governance reforms under Abeconomics （安倍经济学下的企业治理改革）aimed to revive Japan's economy through monetary policy, structural reforms, and other policy measures. The reforms included corporate reforms, increasing the female workforce, labor liberalization, and allowing more immigrants into the labor market to alleviate labor pressures and promote economic growth.
Another underappreciated part of the story is generational change. At old firms, bosses attached to ways of doing business that worked during the glory days of the 1980s are exiting the scene. Young entrepreneurs want to build a new Japan Inc.
日本经济形势变化的另一大被低估的因素是代际变化。在老牌企业，那些执迷于20世纪80年代（日本经济）辉煌时期经营方式的老板们正在退出历史舞台。年轻的企业家们希望建立一个新的“日本株式会社”。
注释：
1.underappreciated adj.not valued or appreciated highly enough
2.The "glory days in the 1980s" refers to the period of Japan's economic boom in the 1980s, during which Japan's economy was booming, with high wages and strong international competitiveness.
Yet much in the Japanese economy remains unchanged and unchanging. For Japan to make good on the promise of the moment, policymakers, executives and politicians must do more to nurture the green shoots of dynamism. For a start, the boj must execute a complex dance in the coming year. It must unwind unorthodox monetary policies that have outlived their usefulness, such as its yield-curve control, without suffocating the nascent inflation. In time the highly indebted government will probably have to find a way to cope with rising interest rates.
然而日本经济的许多方面仍然没有改变，也没有变化的迹象。日本要兑现当下诺言，政策制定者、企业管理者和政客必须采取更多措施壮大经济活力的新芽。首先，日本央行必须在接下来一年里打出一套“组合拳”，调整已经失去作用的非常规货币政策，例如其收益率曲线控制政策，同时又不能扼杀新生的通货膨胀。随着时间的推移，债台高筑的日本政府可能不得不寻求应对利率上升的办法。
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本周感想
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愿景
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