阿根廷大厦将倾，且看米莱如何力挽狂澜 | 经济学人社论
1
思维导图：
Angela， “如果这纷乱的世界让我沮丧，我就去看看她们眼中的光芒。”
2
Leaders | An election in Buenos Aires
社论| 铁打的首都，流水的政府：布宜诺斯艾利斯观大选
英文部分选自经济学人202301125社论板块
原文在公众号：一天一篇外刊翻译
Leaders | An election in Buenos Aires
社论| 铁打的首都，流水的政府：布宜诺斯艾利斯观大选
In Argentina Javier Milei faces an economic crisis
阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱接盘经济危机
The radical libertarian is taking over a country on the brink
大厦将倾，且看激进自由主义之徒如何力挽狂澜
To an American audience, Argentina’s election may seem uncannily familiar. A political outsider with bouffant hair and a history of outrageous remarks promises to make the country “great again”, and is written off by the liberal elite before winning the presidential poll. Yet the election on November 19th of Javier Milei, a self-described “anarcho-capitalist”, is not a repeat in the pampas of Donald Trump’s rise to power. Mr Milei faces a far trickier economic situation than any American president since the Depression. Many voted for him not because of his inflammatory rhetoric—but in spite of it, in an act of desperation.
美国人看阿根廷大选，估计无比亲切吧。看这位黑天鹅，不爱梳头，屡喷激进狂妄之言，现在信誓旦旦，定要让阿根廷“再次伟大”；胜选之前，自由派精英没人理他。然而，自诩为“无政府资本主义派”的哈维尔·米莱（Javier Milei）在11月19日当选总统，可不是潘帕斯草原版（南美版）的《特朗普夺权记》。留给米莱的这摊子，一百年前大萧条（the Depression）以来的哪个美国总统都没见过。许多人投票并不是被他的煽动性言论带了节奏，实属无奈之举，死马当活马医罢。
注释：
1.“疯子”米莱背后：阿根廷向“庇隆主义”说“不”
https://www.lifeweek.com.cn/h5/article/detail.do?artId=217537
2.庇隆主义：阿根廷正义主义诞生于20世纪40年代，是由阿根廷前总统庇隆提出的一种政治学说，也因其创始人的名字被称为庇隆主义。在庇隆执政阶段，正义主义也是阿根廷正义党（又称庇隆主义党）的政治纲领和指导思想，它对战后阿根廷的发展进程起了举足轻重的作用，以此为基础的正义主义运动至今仍深刻地影响着阿根廷社会，同时对于整个拉丁美洲的政治思潮也有着重要影响。
Argentina is dead broke. Annual inflation is over 140% and is expected to reach 200% by early next year. That is up from 54% when Alberto Fernández, the outgoing Peronist president, took office in 2019.Four in ten Argentines live in poverty. Public debt is 90% of gdp; and the fiscal deficit, when measured properly to include central-bank money-printing, is about 10% of gdp. Its dollar bonds trade at less than 33% of their par value. External sources of cash are tapped out: the country already owes the imf $44bn and its foreign-exchange reserves are about $10bn in the red on a net basis (after deducting central-bank swap lines and other liabilities).
阿根廷已经破产，凉凉了。年通货膨胀率已超140%，明年初预计达到200%，而庇隆主义派的离任总统阿尔韦托·费尔南德斯（Alberto Fernández）于2019年就职时，这个数字仅为54%。贫困人口占五分之二。公债占GDP90%；如果将央行印钞计算在内，财政赤字要占到GDP10%。阿根廷的美元债券交易价格不到面值的33%。外部现金已经花了精光：阿根廷欠下国际货币基金组织（IMF）440亿美元；外汇储备净亏损约100亿美元（扣除央行互换额度和其他负债）。
To face Argentina’s demons, Mr Milei will have to take some emergency economic measures. Rapid belt-tightening is needed to cut the fiscal deficit: unaffordable pensions and fuel subsidies are an obvious target. He must liberalise the exchange-rate system even though this will lead to a devaluation and spur inflation. This is inevitable: Argentina no longer has the dollars it needs to defend the official rates. And the new president needs to restructure Argentina’s debts to lower them to sustainable levels. This will probably require the IMF to admit to losses, or to charge artificially low interest rates on the whopping loans it extended to Argentina, which represent one of the biggest mistakes in the fund’s history.
要解决阿根廷的问题，米莱只能采取紧急经济措施。要想降低财政赤字，必须立即勒紧裤腰带：对准过高的养老金和燃料补贴一刀下去就对了。放宽汇率制度也势在必行，哪怕会导致货币贬值、加剧通货膨胀。但别无他法：阿根廷现在拿不出那么多美元，没法儿维持官方汇率。这位新总统还得重组债务，降到可持续水平。苦了IMF，要么就打碎牙齿吞了这个“老赖”，要么就变通，降低利率减少利息，悔不该当初出手那么大方，简直是IMF史上最大败笔。
What about dollarisation, Mr Milei’s most eye-catching policy? When a country’s financial credibility is in shreds, adopting the greenback in place of its domestic currency may make sense. Eight countries other than the United States use the dollar as legal tender, including Ecuador and Panama. Nonetheless, to do this in an orderly manner requires elaborate and time-consuming preparation and a large initial float of dollars with which to back the banking system. On both counts Argentina fails.
那么，美元化——米莱最引人注目的政策——可行孰不可行？对一个没有什么金融信誉可言的国家来说，可以理解它什么要用美元取代本国货币。除美国之外，还有八个国家使用美元作为法定货币，比如厄瓜多尔和巴拿马。然而，有序实施美元化政策需要精心而耗时的筹备，还需要一大笔初始美元资金来保障银行系统。阿根廷既拿不出计划也拿不出本金。
Indeed, the emergency economic measures are themselves a giant leap. Mr Milei may have won with a large mandate, but he will hold a fragile position in government: his coalition will have only 38 of 257 seats in the lower house of Congress and seven of 72 seats in the Senate. He will therefore have to build alliances, particularly with Patricia Bullrich, a moderate right-winger.
的确，紧急经济措施这一步跨得太大了。虽然米莱以较多选票赢得了选举，但他的政府根基很薄弱：他的政党在众议院257个席位中仅占38席，参议院72个席位中仅占7席。因此，他必须建立同盟，尤其要拉拢中右翼人士帕特丽夏·布利里奇（Patricia Bullrich）。
To forge these alliances Mr Milei needs to become more statesmanlike, after a lifetime of eccentricity. Until now he has surrounded himself with divisive figures and cranks.His running-mate, Victoria Villarruel, has downplayed the atrocities of Argentina’s military junta. To signal change, he should appoint Ms Bullrich and Mauricio Macri, a former president, to his cabinet.
为结成同盟，米莱一辈子的奇葩人设就得改，要让自己更有政治家风范。一直以来，他身边围的都是些极具争议的人物和怪咖，竞选搭档维多利亚·维拉鲁尔（Victoria Villarruel）在言辞中对阿根廷军政府的暴行一带而过。要想告诉大家他变了，那就应该让布利里奇和前总统毛里西奥·马克里（Mauricio Macri）进入内阁。
Mr Milei’s time in power will not be easy. Mr Macri was the first non-Peronist to complete a term in office since the restoration of democracy in 1983. Mr Milei needs to act quickly, but also to build a national consensus about economic reform so that his policies do not result in Argentines taking to the streets. So far, his lack of experience and volatile character do not suggest that he can manage this. Yet if Argentina has become an economic casino, Mr Milei is the last roll of the dice.
米莱接下来的日子注定不好过。自1983年恢复民主以来，除了马克里，再没有第二个非庇隆主义派总统能做满一届任期。米莱必须跑快点，但也得在全国上下形成经济改革的统一共识，不然就会引发民众上街游行抗议。此人缺乏经验，性格多变，想接这个盘？目前怎么看都悬。但是话说回来，阿根廷已然是一座经济赌场，那就且让米莱最后一搏吧。
Leon，男，驻外民工，经济学人读者
Humi，在躺平、侧卧和睡梦中寻找诗和远方
Mai，男，经济学博士，世界那么大，我想活得久一点
Tera，一口
UU，日日行，不怕千万里
Lucian，医学翻译，灵魂在杰作中冒险
3
观点|评论|思考
本周感想
4
愿景
微信扫码关注该文公众号作者