阿根廷大厦将倾，且看米莱如何力挽狂澜 | 经济学人（泛读）

2024-01-02 02:01

导读：

阿根廷选举中，自称“无政府资本主义者”的哈维尔·米莱面对严重经济危机，国家陷入贫困，通货膨胀超过140%，预计将在明年初达到200%。米莱的当选并非像特朗普崛起那样简单，而是出于绝望。他需要迅速采取紧急经济措施，包括削减财政赤字、取消不可负担的养老金和燃料补贴，自由化汇率制度，以及重组债务。尽管他提出的“美元化”政策引人注目，但面临许多挑战。他将在国会中建立联盟，力求改变形象，但由于经验不足和性格波动，他面临着艰巨的任务。

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Leaders | An election in Buenos Aires

In Argentina Javier Milei faces an economic crisis

The radical libertarian is taking over a country on the brink

To an american audience, Argentina’s election may seem uncannily familiar. A political outsider with bouffant hair and a history of outrageous remarks promises to make the country “great again”, and is written off by the liberal elite before winning the presidential poll. Yet the election on November 19th of Javier Milei, a self-described “anarcho-capitalist”, is not a repeat in the pampas of Donald Trump’s rise to power. Mr Milei faces a far trickier economic situation than any American president since the Depression. Many voted for him not because of his inflammatory rhetoric—but in spite of it, in an act of desperation.

Argentina is dead broke. Annual inflation is over 140% and is expected to reach 200% by early next year. That is up from 54% when Alberto Fernández, the outgoing Peronist president, took office in 2019. Four in ten Argentines live in poverty. Public debt is 90% of gdp; and the fiscal deficit, when measured properly to include central-bank money-printing, is about 10% of gdp. Its dollar bonds trade at less than 33% of their par value. External sources of cash are tapped out: the country already owes the imf $44bn and its foreign-exchange reserves are about $10bn in the red on a net basis (after deducting central-bank swap lines and other liabilities).

To face Argentina’s demons, Mr Milei will have to take some emergency economic measures. Rapid belt-tightening is needed to cut the fiscal deficit: unaffordable pensions and fuel subsidies are an obvious target. He must liberalise the exchange-rate system even though this will lead to a devaluation and spur inflation. This is inevitable: Argentina no longer has the dollars it needs to defend the official rates. And the new president needs to restructure Argentina’s debts to lower them to sustainable levels. This will probably require theimf to admit to losses, or to charge artificially low interest rates on the whopping loans it extended to Argentina, which represent one of the biggest mistakes in the fund’s history.

What about dollarisation, Mr Milei’s most eye-catching policy? When a country’s financial credibility is in shreds, adopting the greenback in place of its domestic currency may make sense. Eight countries other than the United States use the dollar as legal tender, including Ecuador and Panama. Nonetheless, to do this in an orderly manner requires elaborate and time-consuming preparation and a large initial float of dollars with which to back the banking system. On both counts Argentina fails.

Indeed, the emergency economic measures are themselves a giant leap. Mr Milei may have won with a large mandate, but he will hold a fragile position in government: his coalition will have only 38 of 257 seats in the lower house of Congress and seven of 72 seats in the Senate. He will therefore have to build alliances, particularly with Patricia Bullrich, a moderate right-winger.

To forge these alliances Mr Milei needs to become more statesmanlike, after a lifetime of eccentricity. Until now he has surrounded himself with divisive figures and cranks. His running-mate, Victoria Villarruel, has downplayed the atrocities of Argentina’s military junta. To signal change, he should appoint Ms Bullrich and Mauricio Macri, a former president, to his cabinet.

Mr Milei’s time in power will not be easy. Mr Macri was the first non-Peronist to complete a term in office since the restoration of democracy in 1983. Mr Milei needs to act quickly, but also to build a national consensus about economic reform so that his policies do not result in Argentines taking to the streets. So far, his lack of experience and volatile character do not suggest that he can manage this. Yet if Argentina has become an economic casino, Mr Milei is the last roll of the dice.

中文翻译在公众号：一天一篇经济学人

重点单词：
anarcho-capitalist - 无政府资本主义者
inflammatory rhetoric - 煽动性的言论
Peronist - 佩隆主义者（阿根廷一种政治派别）
fiscal deficit - 财政赤字
devaluation - 贬值
restructure - 重组
dollarisation - 美元化
mandate - 授权
coalition - 联合政府
lower house of Congress - 众议院
Senate - 参议院
right-winger - 右翼分子
statesmanlike - 有政治家风度的
eccentricity - 古怪行为
atrocities - 暴行
democracy - 民主
economic reform - 经济改革
volatile character - 多变的性格
national consensus - 全国共识
economic casino - 经济赌场

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