阿联酋的崛起 | 经济学人社论
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Leaders | Climbing high
社论 | 勇攀高峰
英文部分选自经济学人202301125社论板块
Leaders | Climbing high
社论 | 勇攀高峰
How to thrive in a fractured world
如何在分崩离析的世界里蓬勃发展
Lessons from the ambitious ascent of the United Arab Emirates
阿联酋雄心勃勃的崛起之道
Over thenext few weeks Dubai will be abuzz. Tens of thousands of diplomats, activists and business folk are due to fly in to join the un’s annual climate pow-wow. The United Arab Emirates’ skill at wrangling countries and industries with vastly disparate interests, in the hope of making further progress on tackling climate change, will be on full display. But that is not the only reason to pay attention to the uae. It also shows how to thrive in the multipolar age.
接下来的几周，迪拜将会热闹非凡。数万名外交官、活动家和商界人士将飞往此处，参加一年一度的联合国气候变化大会。为在应对气候变化问题上取得进一步进展，阿联酋将充分展现其与利益迥异的国家和行业角力的技巧。但这并非是阿联酋成为焦点的唯一原因。在当今这个多极化的时代，阿联酋还向世界展示如何继续蓬勃发展。
The country is home to just over 0.1% of the world’s people and produces only 0.5% of itsgdp, but it contains nearly 10% of the world’s oil reserves, and this wealth helps it punch above its weight. Like many emerging countries today, it straddles political and economic divisions. It is a closed autocracy, yet one of the world’s most open economies. It is a close ally of America, but its biggest trading partner is China. Although its gdp per person exceeds that of Britain or France, it is often seen as part of the global south and is a hub for Indian and African businesses, making it the Singapore of the Middle East. And in 2020 it was one of the first Gulf countries to normalise relations with Israel.
阿联酋人口仅占世界人口的0.1%，其GDP仅占世界GDP的0.5%，但它拥有世界近10%的石油储量，这足以助其拔山超海。与如今许多新兴国家一样，阿联酋面临种种政治和经济分歧。它虽是一个封闭的专制国家，但也是世界上最开放的经济体之一。作为美国的亲密盟友，它最大的贸易伙伴却是中国。尽管人均GDP超过了英国或法国，但阿联酋通常被视为全球南方的一员，也是印度和非洲商业的枢纽，因此，它成为了中东地区的新加坡。2020年，它成为首批与以色列关系正常化的海湾国家之一。
As a consequence, the uae is prospering even as war rages in the Middle East and superpower rivalry unravels the world. The non-oil economy is growing at nearly 6% a year, a rate that India is enjoying but that the West can only dream of. Talent and wealth are flocking to the country, as Chinese traders, Indian tycoons, Russian billionaires and Western bankers alike seek stability and success. Last year it attracted more foreign investment for greenfield projects than anywhere except America, Britain and India.
因此，即使中东战争肆虐，超级大国间的竞争使世界分崩离析，阿联酋仍在蓬勃发展。阿联酋的非石油经济正以每年近6%的速度增长，这一增速与印度相当，而对于西方国家来说，这可望而不可及。随着中国商人、印度大亨、俄罗斯亿万富翁和西方银行家等都在寻求稳定和成功，人才和财富源源不断流向阿联酋。去年，阿联酋在绿地项目上吸引的外国投资仅次于美国、英国和印度。
Like Singapore, theuae is a haven for its region. But whereas Singapore’s ascent coincided with a golden age of globalisation, the uae is seizing opportunity in a time of chaos and disorder. It wants not just to thrive economically but, more dangerously, to exert its political influence abroad. Both its successes and its failures hold lessons for middling powers as they navigate a fragmenting world.
和新加坡一样，阿联酋也是其周边地区的避风港。然而，新加坡的崛起恰逢全球化的黄金时代，而阿联酋则在混乱无序的时代抓住了机遇。它不仅想要实现经济繁荣，更危险的是，还想在海外施加政治影响。面对这个割裂的世界，阿联酋的成功和失败给中等实力的国家提供了经验教训。
One lesson is to play to your economic strengths. Theuae has had its share of economic embarrassments, notably Dubai’s debt-fuelled construction binge, which ended in crisis and a bail-out in 2009. An obsession with the blockchain has faded. But in other areas it has made the most of its advantages, to impressive effect. The operators of its vast ports now run sites from London and Luanda to Mumbai and Manila. dp World, one such firm, handles roughly a tenth of all global shipping-container traffic. Masdar, one of the world’s biggest clean-energy developers, has ploughed money into everything from wind farms in Texas to solar plants in Uzbekistan. All told, the uae is now one of the biggest investors in Africa, helping build vital infrastructure across the capital-starved continent.
其一是要发挥自身经济优势。阿联酋曾经历过一段经济尴尬期，尤其是迪拜的倒债建设潮，2009年以爆发危机、接受援助收场。它对区块链的痴迷也已消散。但在其他领域，阿联酋充分发挥了自身优势，卓有成效。一些大型港口运营商的业务分布伦敦、罗安达、孟买和马尼拉。其中，迪拜环球港务（dp World）承担了全球约十分之一的集装箱运输流量。全球最大的清洁能源开发商之一马斯达尔（Masdar）在业内大力投资，地域跨度颇广，如在得克萨斯州投资风电场，到乌兹别克斯坦建太阳能电厂。总而言之，阿联酋现今是非洲最大的投资者之一，助力资金匮乏的非洲大陆建设关键基础设施。
Meanwhile, access to lots of capital, computing power and data has helped artificial-intelligence researchers in Abu Dhabi train up Falcon, an open-source large language model that in some ways beats Meta’s. Some experts reckon that theuae may well be the third-most-important country for ai, after America and China. And throughout, its rulers have doubled down on the utility of the country’s position as an entrepot at the crossroads of Africa, Asia and Europe, by building institutions for good economic governance and technocracy.
同时，阿布扎比的人工智能研究人员依靠大量资本、计算力和数据，成功训练出Falcon——一种开源的大型语言模型，在某些方面超越了Meta的模型。一些专家认为，阿联酋可能是继美国和中国之后全球第三重要的人工智能国家。阿联酋位于非、亚、欧三大洲的交汇处，历来，统治者都在通过建立促进经济治理和专家治国的体系，来加强利用其转口贸易枢纽的地位。
Another lesson is to welcome foreign talent. With just 1m locals, theuae needs lots of both highly skilled and low-skilled migrants. And the world is full of go-ahead people hoping to make their fortunes. Whereas Saudi Arabia is resorting to heavy-handed measures to attract expertise, such as requiring regional offices to be set up in the country, the uae focuses on making itself a more attractive place to live and do business. A golden-visa scheme set up in 2019 offers professionals long-term residency; a select few can even apply for citizenship, once unheard of in the Gulf. In time Saudi Arabia, which is just starting to wean its economy off oil, may become a serious rival. Although the uae severely restricts political freedoms and has a bad record on human rights, the threat of competition is spurring it to become more socially and economically liberal.
另一个教训是广纳国外人才。阿联酋本地人口仅100万，因此需要大量高技术与低技术移民。而世界上梦想发迹的开拓者遍布天涯海角。相比之下，沙特阿拉伯吸引专业人才的手段较为死板，比如要求在该国设立地区办事处，而阿联酋则大力营造宜居宜商的诱人环境。2019年阿联酋推出的黄金签证计划为专业人才提供长期居留许可；少数人甚至可以申请公民身份，这在海湾地区曾是天方夜谭。沙特阿拉伯刚刚开始摆脱其经济对石油的依赖，随着时间推移，可能会成为不可小觑的竞争对手。尽管阿联酋严格限制政治自由，在人权方面记录不佳，但竞争的威胁正促使其扩大社会和经济的自由度。
Nor has theuae forgotten the gains from trade. Other countries have favoured industrial policy and protectionism, but it has been doing deals. India, wary of free trade, signed its first such deal in a decade with the uae; commerce between the two has since leapt by 16% in nominal terms. An agreement with Israel has given the uae precious tech know-how and Israeli firms access to deep pools of capital and the bigger Gulf market. Western airlines stopped flying to Tel Aviv after the war in Gaza began. Etihad and Flydubai, two Emirati carriers, still make regular flights there.
阿联酋从未忘记贸易红利。在其他国家倾向于工业政策和保护主义的同时，阿联酋的交易不断。印度向来对自由贸易持谨慎态度，而在过去十年中却首次与阿联酋签署了自由贸易协定；两国之间的商务往来在名义上增长了16%。与以色列的协议为阿联酋带来了宝贵的科技知识，而以色列企业也得以获得雄厚资金、进入更大的海湾市场。加沙战争爆发后，西方航空公司暂停飞往特拉维夫（Tel Aviv）的所有航班，而阿联酋的两家航空公司，阿提哈德（Etihad）和迪拜航空（Flydubai），仍保留常规航线。
Yet some opportunities are turning out to be pitfalls. As America’s influence wanes, enterprising powers everywhere will be tempted to amass influence abroad for themselves. Muhammad bin Zayed, theuae’s ruler, has duly seized the initiative. The country’s pragmatism has sometimes served it well. In much of Africa it is a welcome business partner, without the imperial baggage of the West; at the un climate meeting, it hopes to be a broker between rich and poor. But the uae has also made terrible mistakes.
然而，一些机会正转变成隐患。随着美国影响力衰退，各有雄心的国家都试图在海外积攒影响力。阿联酋现任总统穆罕默德·本·扎耶德（Muhammad bin Zayed）适时抢占先机。该国的实用主义有时也助一臂之力。在非洲的大部分地区，阿联酋是广受欢迎的商业伙伴，它丝毫没有西方的帝国派头；在联合国气候变化大会上，阿联酋希望成为富国与穷国间的斡旋者。然而，阿联酋也犯下了严重错误。
Mirage in the desert
海市蜃楼
Fearing the influence of political Islam in its backyard, and wanting to protect trade flows, theuae is arming the Rapid Support Forces, a Sudanese militia that is committing genocide in Darfur. In the past that approach has failed miserably. In Libya the uae backed a warlord who tried to march on Tripoli in 2019 and lost. In Yemen it joined Saudi Arabia in a long war against the Houthi rebels, before partially withdrawing in 2019.
由于担心政治伊斯兰主义在其周边地区的影响，以及希望保护贸易流动，阿联酋正在武装苏丹快速支援部队，这是一支在达尔富尔地区犯下种族灭绝行径的民兵组织。过去的经验表明，这种方法会带来惨痛的失败。此外，阿联酋曾支持利比亚的一名军阀领袖，后者在2019年试图攻入的黎波里，但铩羽而归。同年，阿联酋从也门撤出部分军队，此前，这些阿联酋军队同沙特阿拉伯一同长期对抗胡塞叛军。
Over the years theuae’s rulers have built mechanisms to ensure a stable business environment at home; they know, too, that domestic failures would quickly incur the ire of their citizens. But the regime faces no such constraints abroad, allowing it to indulge its whims and protect its interests, no matter the consequences elsewhere. In a fragmented world, many countries will be looking for new ways to play on the global stage. The uae shows the promise that lies ahead—and the perils, too.
多年来，阿联酋的统治者们建立了确保国内营商环境稳定性的机制。与此同时，他们也明白国内的种种失败会很快点燃民众的怒火。但这一管理体制在国外则无此种限制，因此阿联酋才得以随心所欲，维护自己的利益，并对其他地区造成的后果不管不顾。在一个分崩离析的世界，许多国家将在全球舞台上找寻全新的发展方式。而阿联酋则告知世界，未来，福祸并存。
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