全球经济逆势而上，却只是昙花一现 | 经济学人社论

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2023-11-08 01:11

写在前面

思维导图作者

Angela， “如果这纷乱的世界让我沮丧，我就去看看她们眼中的光芒。”

精读|翻译|词组

Leaders | Too good to be true

社论｜经济表现亮眼，令人难以置信

英文部分选自经济学人202301104社论板块

Leaders | Too good to be true

社论｜经济表现亮眼，令人难以置信

The world economy is defying gravity. That cannot last

全球经济逆势而上，却只是昙花一现

Threats abound, including higher-for-longer interest rates

威胁无处不在，居高不下的利率便是其中之一

Even as warsrage and the geopolitical climate darkens, the world economy has been an irrepressible source of cheer. Only a year ago everyone agreed that high interest rates would soon bring about a recession. Now even the optimists have been confounded. America’s economy roared in the third quarter, growing at a stunning annualised pace of 4.9%. Around the world, inflation is falling, unemployment has mostly stayed low and the big central banks may have stopped their monetary tightening. Unfortunately, however, this good cheer cannot last. The foundations for today’s growth look unstable. Peer ahead, and threats abound.

尽管当今世界战争肆虐、地缘政治环境不断恶化，但世界经济却喜讯频传。仅仅一年前，所有人都认为高利率将快速带来衰退。而现在，哪怕是乐观主义者也大惑不解。今年第三季度，美国经济一路狂飙，年增长率达到了惊人的4.9％。放眼全球，通胀率正在下降，失业率总体保持低位，大型央行可能已经踩下了货币紧缩的“刹车”。但不幸的是，这一好景不会长久。如今经济增长的基础似乎并不牢固，展望未来，威胁无处不在。

注释：

irrepressible: very strong, impossible to control十分强烈的

//十足的信心irrepressible confidence

The irrepressible economy has encouraged bets that interest rates, though no longer rising rapidly, will not fall by much. Over the past week the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve have held rates steady; the Bank of England was expected to follow suit shortly after we published this on November 2nd. Long-term bond yields have accordingly risen sharply. America’s government must now pay 5% to borrow for 30 years, up from just 1.2% in the depths of the pandemic recession. Even economies known for low rates have seen sharp increases. Not long ago Germany’s borrowing costs were negative; now its ten-year bond yield is nearly 3%. The Bank of Japan hasall but given up on its promise to peg ten-year borrowing costs at 1%.

鉴于当下经济形势喜人，不少人确信，尽管利率将不再飙升，但也不会大幅下跌。上周，欧洲央行和美联储将利率保持在当前水平。预计11月2日本文发布后，英国央行也会紧随其后。长期债券收益率也应声大涨。美国政府30年国债收益率已经达到5％，而在疫情期间经济深陷衰退泥沼时，这一数值只有1.2％。除了美国，其他利率向来较低的经济体也大幅加息。不久前，德国国债利率还是负值，而现在，其十年国债收益率达到近3％。日本央行也几乎放弃了将十年期国债利率维持在1％的承诺。

注释：

peg: If a price or amount of something is pegged at a particular level, it is fixed at that level. 限定（价格、数量等）；把…固定在一定水平；使与…挂钩

Some people, including Janet Yellen, America’s treasury secretary, say these higher interest rates are a good thing—a reflection of a world economy in the rudest of health. In fact, they are a source of danger. Because higher rates are likely to persist, today’s economic policies will fail and so will the growth they have fostered.

美国财长珍妮特·耶伦（Janet Yellen）等一部分专业人士表示，高利率是好事，这表明经济非常健康。但其实，高利率会带来巨大风险。由于高利率可能居高不下，所以现如今的经济政策将会失灵，进而经济政策刺激下的经济增长也将停滞。

注释：

in rudest health: very healthy非常健康

To see why today’s benign conditions cannot continue, consider one reason why America’s economy in particular has fared better than expected. Its consumers have been spending the cash they accumulated during the pandemic from handouts and staying at home. Those excess savings were expected to have been depleted by now. But recent data suggest households still have $1trn left, which explains why they can get away with saving less out of their incomes than at any point in the 2010s.

想要了解为何如今良好的经济形势无法持续，可以想一想为何美国经济尤其表现得超过预期。美国消费者现在花的钱都是疫情期间发放的补助金与当时宅在家里攒下的钱。根据预测，这些额外的储蓄现在应该花光了才对。但是最近的数据表明，美国家庭手中仍还有一万亿美元的剩余，这也就解释了为什么他们的收入用于储蓄的比例较2010-2019年间的任何时候都少，却依旧能怡然自得。

When those excess savings buffers have been run down, high interest rates will start to bite, forcing consumers to spend less freely. And, as our Briefing explains, trouble will start to emerge across the world economy if rates stay higher for longer. In Europe and America business bankruptcies are already rising; even companies that locked in low rates by issuing long-term debt will in time have to face higher financing costs. House prices will fall, at least in inflation-adjusted terms, as they respond to dearer mortgages. And banks holding long-term securities—which have been supported by short-term loans, including from the Fed—will have to raise capital or merge to plug the holes blown in their balance-sheets by higher rates.

当这笔额外的储蓄逐渐花光，高利率将会造成不良后果，让消费者无法像现在这样自由地消费。并且，正如我们的Briefing板块所解释的那样，如果利率继续维持较高水平，世界各国的经济都会开始出现问题。在欧洲与美国，企业破产数量已经不断上升，即便是那些通过发行长期债券来锁定低利率的企业，也将不得不面对更高的融资成本。在应对更高的抵押贷款利率时，房价会有所下降，至少在排除通胀影响后的价格是如此。同时，持有长期证券的银行——这些证券由美联储等机构的短期贷款支撑（购买）——将不得不筹集资本或合并，以填补高利率造成的资产负债表的漏洞。

Fiscal largesse has added to the world economy’s sugar rush. In a higher-for-longer world, it too looks unsustainable. According to the imf, Britain, France, Italy and Japan are all likely to run deficits in the region of 5% of gdp in 2023. In the 12 months to September America’s deficit was a staggering $2trn, or 7.5% of gdp after adjusting for accounting distortions—about double what was expected in mid-2022. At a time of low unemployment, such borrowing is jaw-droppingly reckless. All told, government debt in the rich world is now higher, as a share of gdp, than at any time since after the Napoleonic wars.

财政刺激政策也为世界经济的表面繁荣推波助澜。如果利率长期走高，财政刺激政策也难以为继。根据国际货币基金组织，2023年英国、法国、意大利和日本的赤字都可能占各自GDP的5%。截至今年9月的过去一年里，美国赤字达到惊人的2万亿美元，占美国GDP的7.5%（排除会计信息失真因素影响），是2022年中期预期值的两倍左右。在失业率较低的时期，如此高的举债率真是轻率鲁莽到令人大惊失色。总之，现在富裕国家的政府债务占GDP的比重较拿破仑战争后的任何时期都要高。

When interest rates were low, even towering debts were manageable. Now that rates have risen, interest bills are draining budgets. Higher-for-longer therefore threatens to pit governments against inflation-targeting central bankers. Already, Ms Yellen has felt obliged to argue that Treasuries carry no risk premium, and Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, has insisted that his bank would never cut rates and let inflation rip to ease pressure on the government’s budget.

如果利率较低的话，哪怕是巨额债务，都能在可控范围内。而如今利率上升，利息支出吸干了政府预算。因此，利率长期走高会让政府和想要达成通胀目标的央行针锋相对。耶伦不得不辩称，美国国债并无风险溢价，而美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）则坚称，美国央行永远不会降低利率任由通胀上涨以缓解政府预算的压力。

Whatever Mr Powell says, a higher-for-longer era would lead investors to question governments’ promises both to keep inflation low and also to pay their debts. Theecb’s bondholdings are already becoming skewed towards the Italian government debt that it tacitly backstops—a task that has become far harder in a high-rate world. Even when Japanese government-bond yields were a paltry 0.8% last year, 8% of Japan’s budget went on interest payments. Imagine the strain if yields reached even Germany’s relatively modest levels. Some governments would go on to tighten their belts as a result. But doing so may bring economic pain.

无论鲍威尔怎么说，如果高利率持续存在，那么在投资者眼里，政府既要维持低通胀，又要偿还债务的承诺也会被打上问号。欧洲央行曾默默支持意大利政府债券的发行，并倾向于持有其债务（以稳定意大利政府的债务情况）——如今利率高企，这一任务已经变得难上加难。即使去年日本国债收益率只有区区0.8%，日本政府预算中仍有8%用于支付利息。试想一下，收益率哪怕是达到德国那样相对适中的水平，会产生多大的压力。一些政府可能会因此勒紧裤腰带，但这样一来可能会带来经济阵痛。

These strains make it hard to see how the world economy could possibly accomplish the many things that markets currently expect of it: a dodged recession, low inflation, mighty debts and high interest rates all at the same time. It is more likely that the higher-for-longer era kills itself off, by bringing about economic weakness that lets central bankers cut rates without inflation soaring.

鉴于这些压力，我们很难想象世界经济如何实现目前市场对它的诸多预期：同时躲过经济衰退、低通胀、巨额债务和高利率。更有可能出现的情况是，长期高利率的时代会自取灭亡，因为高利率带来的经济疲软会让央行在不引发高通胀的同时削减利率。

A more hopeful possibility is that productivity growth soars, perhaps thanks to generative artificial intelligence (ai). The resulting boost to incomes and revenues would make higher rates bearable. Indeed, figures published on November 2nd are expected to show that America’s measured productivity surged in the third quarter. The potential ofai to unleash further productivity gains may explain why higher-for-longer has so far not punctured stockmarkets. Were it not for the rising valuations of seven tech firms, including Microsoft and Nvidia, the s&p 500 index of American stocks would have fallen this year.

还有一种更乐观的可能情况：得益于生成式人工智能（AI）或其它原因，生产率飞速提高，由此带来的收入和收益的提高使得高利率也可以承受。事实上，预计11月2日公布的数据会表明，美国第三季度的生产率大幅上升。AI有潜力进一步提高生产率，这或许可以解释为什么长期高利率到目前为止还没有影响股市。如果不是因为包括微软和英伟达在内的七家科技公司估值上升，今年美国标普500指数本应该会下跌。

Don’t look down

切勿麻痹大意

Set against that hope, though, is a world stalked by threats to productivity growth. Donald Trump vowsswingeing new tariffs should he return to the White House. Governments are increasingly distorting markets with industrial policy. State spending is growing as a share of the economy as populations age, the green-energy transition beckons and conflicts around the world require more spending on defence. In the face of all this, anyone betting that the world economy can just keep carrying on is taking a huge gamble.

然而，此处我要泼一盆冷水，别忘了如今世界生产率增长正受到诸多威胁。特朗普发誓说，如果他重返白宫，将严厉征收新关税。各国政府推出的产业政策也让市场越来越扭曲。随着人口老龄化、绿色能源转型的到来以及世界各地的冲突需要更多国防开支，国家支出在经济中的占比不断增加。面对这一切，任何押注世界经济能够继续平稳运行的人，都是在参与一场豪赌。

翻译组：

Rex, the one who widens your English~

Dossver, 谁人定我去或留，定我心中的宇宙

Trista, 女，暴富不是梦想，是未来的现实

校对组：

Hannah，做个废柴，保持愉快
Charlie，往者不谏，来者可追

Mai, 男，经济学博士，世界那么大，我想活得久一点

观点|评论|思考

本周感想

Forest，爱树的人，精神小花园持续耕耘中

感觉这个感想有点不太好写，到是也可能是太晚了，脑袋转不动所致。

总之，觉得确实不容易想个什么出路出来。如何透支了未来的钱，本质上据说人们是自己的经纪人，要平衡现在的自己和未来的自己的利益。所以比方说自己给自己现分配了比较多的钱花，而之前自己也没存多少钱，那这个钱从哪里来的呢？

那只能是从未来挪用过来。好像是这么个理@_@

要不然呢？

要不然就是还有到底挪了多少，为什么老也用不完？这也是让人困惑的方面。

据文中所言，过去这几年米国老幼在家都能躺赚，问题是能赚这么多么？居然家里还有一万亿的剩余？

忽然想到有一种说法可能还是比较可信的，也跟这些数据都能匹配。

就是说美国的高级公民们可能情况确实因疫情和之后情况而收入增加。

美国老年人的退休金，是有CPI调整的。1996年美国曾经集合了几个专业的学者共同做实证，发现其实因为退休金因为直接跟着CPI调整，而并不方便发现当价格上升之时，人们会用便宜的商品替代价格更高的商品来改善自己的状况从而在通胀时其实可以用较少的钱就能达到和之前相同的效用，所以跟着CPI调整的养老金其实会因为通胀而受益的。再加上401K养老金大抵也会随着现在股市膨胀（因为国债收益率高，说明投到国债上钱是少的；说明其他投资回报应该不错）而得益，那么占美国人口17%以上的老年人会状况不错，而老年人又没有什么其他负担，哦，不对，好像之前看新闻说过疫情之后，美国年轻人也不太好过，大概是有5到七成年轻人从出租屋搬回家去了。这么说来的话，估计因人年老而可能导致的需求银发的特征可以不用考虑，年轻的孩子们会帮着老人们嘿哟、嘿哟地把这些钱消费出去！

如此，可能可以解释为什么消费（C）一直在保持着推动着经济进步、产出增加的洪荒之力吧！

如果还有什么其他方面，那大概就是科技公司在扩张在革新，大家都知道的信息技术公司便是如此；以及美国的石油公司，那些页岩油企业也要算科技公司。现实已经告诉我们，“世界并不缺少石油天然气。缺少的是开采它们的技术。”而页岩开发技术缔造了美国的新制造业，虽然老制造业之前已经外流很多（政府应该在使劲儿补贴希望把它们也抓回来（G），但是俄乌战争之后这个新制造业应该是回报很好的，记得拜登都批评过，说这些公司很短时间就赚了1000亿，这么多钱应该可以有不少可以用于投资（I）。。。

如此，大概可以解释一下现今令人们难以置信的繁荣（Y同比增加）。

不过，这些方面是否都立于坚实的长期地基之上，还是有可能有短期流沙的嫌疑呢？

这，正是大家担心和疑虑所在吧。

来日方长，慢慢看吧。

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