Arm上市来打样 | 经济学人商业（感想超赞）

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2023-09-03 02:09

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Business | Strike up the band

商业｜笙歌喧腾

英文部分选自经济学人20230826商业板块

Business | Strike up the band

商业｜笙歌喧腾

Arm’s flotation could revive the market for IPOs

Arm上市有望振奋IPO市场

Despite a resilient economy and buoyant stocks, listings are still thin on the ground

经济强韧，股市繁荣，新上市公司却依旧寥寥无几

No matter how wild the party, it is a rare hangover that lingers into its second year. Yet after a record-smashing rave in 2021, investors in initial public offerings (IPOs) are still nursing sore heads. Over the course of a year-long binge, they ploughed some $600bn into stockmarket listings around the world in 2021, according to Dealogic, a data firm. That is more than double the figure for 2007, in the mad gallop preceding the financial crisis, and nearly triple that for 2000, as the dotcom bubble swelled. But then soaring inflation, the end of cheap money and cratering markets put paid to the celebrations. In some places flotations all but disappeared: proceeds from American IPOs in 2022 fell by more than 90% compared with the previous year. So far in 2023, the sombre mood has continued (see chart).

不管派对有多疯狂，很少有人会到第二年仍“宿”醉不醒。然而，IPO投资者到现在仍未从2021年创纪录的那场股市狂欢缓过神来。数据公司Dealogic表示，这场长达一年的狂欢中，全球的投资者共倾注了6000亿美元打新股，是2007年的两倍多，几乎是2000年的三倍，07年正值金融危机前夕的疯涨，而00年则是互联网泡沫膨胀时期。但随后，通胀飙升，廉价货币时代终结，市场暴跌，这场狂欢戛然而止。一些地方几乎不再有股票发行：2022年美国IPO的收益比去年下降超过90%。时至今日，投资者依然沮丧（见图表）。

注释：

put paid to sth.: To consider something finished or ended; to put something to rest or no longer give it any attention.

The music may soon start up again. On August 21st Arm, a British chip designer, at last filed a preliminary prospectus for a hotly awaited listing on the Nasdaq exchange, expected to take place in the first half of September. A likely valuation of between $60bn and $70bn would mark the biggest American float in nearly two years.

然而，音乐可能很快会再次响起。8月21日，英国芯片设计公司Arm终于提交了初步公开募股说明书，预计于9月上半月在纳斯达克交易所上市，市场对此早就翘首以盼。Arm估值可能在600亿美元到700亿美元之间，这将成为近两年来美国规模最大的IPO。

It is not just Arm. Notwithstanding an August wobble, stockmarkets have been rising for almost a year: the S&P 500 index of large American firms is up by 24% from a trough in October. MSCI’s broadest index of global stocks has also risen by 24%. Such a bull run offers inevitable temptations to the bosses of private firms. With prices having risen so much, perhaps now is the time to sell a chunk of the company’s shares to public investors and get a healthy slug of capital in return.

积极的信号不只来自Arm一家公司。尽管8月出现了一些震荡，但股市上涨了近一年：去年10月低点以来，标普500反弹了24%，MSCI的全球指数同样上涨了24%。这样的牛市对未上市企业的老板而言充满诱惑。估值大幅上涨，也许现在正是筹划公司上市进行套现的大好时机。

注释：

MSCI明晟公司，旧名为“摩根士丹利资本国际”（Morgan Stanley Capital International）

Importantly, says James Palmer of Bank of America, volatility has also been subdued for months. That lowers the likelihood of would-be floaters kicking off a weeks-long listing process only to see the market plunge and the value of their soon-to-be minted shares fall with it. Aloke Gupte of JPMorgan Chase, another bank, is more bullish still. The pace of work at firms using his team’s help to go public, he says, has “gone from second gear to fifth” in recent weeks.

美国银行（Bank of America）的詹姆斯·帕尔默（James Palmer）表示，重要的是，近几个月市场的波动率都很低。这会降低有意上市的公司在启动长达数周的上市程序后，市场暴跌和新股随之跳水的可能性。摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）的阿洛克·古普特（Aloke Gupte）看涨情绪更加高涨。古普特表示，其团队助力上市的许多公司在这几周已经将工作节奏“从第二档升至第五档”。

Meanwhile, the listings that have already taken place suggest a market that is hungry for more. Oddity Tech, a beauty outfit that perhaps inevitably uses artificial intelligence (AI) to develop its products, listed on the Nasdaq on July 19th. It saw demand for its offering vastly outstrip supply. The firm sold $424m-worth of its shares, while investors placed orders for over $10bn. After Arm’s IPO, Instacart, a grocery-delivery group, Databricks, a software firm, and Socure, an identity-verification company, are all likely to follow up with their own flotations.

近期多家公司上市，这也说明市场仍饥渴难耐。以色列美容科技公司Oddity Tech或许是无可避免地要使用人工智能技术开发产品，该公司已于7月19日在纳斯达克上市，其股票远远供不应求，该公司只售出价值4.24亿美元的股票，而投资者认购额已超100亿美元。Arm首次公开募股后，杂货配送公司Instacart、软件公司Databricks和身份验证公司Socure都有可能相继上市。

If this steady drip is to become a rush, it will require three developments in its favour. The first is a clearer picture of where interest rates are heading. One senior banker cites confusion over this as the main reason that listings, as well as other deals such as mergers and acquisitions, were so slow to return in the first half of 2023. With the Federal Reserve’s fastest tightening cycle in decades still under way and a clutch of American regional banks teetering close to collapse, guessing where long-term rates would end up felt like taking a shot in the dark, she argues. As well as determining firms’ funding costs, this is the ultimate benchmark against which IPO investors measure their potential returns. And so without much idea of where the “risk-free rate” will settle, pricing a new tranche of shares with any confidence becomes impossible.

若想让公司上市之势从“源源不断的水滴”变为“来势迅猛的急流”，三个有利因素不可或缺。其一，利率走势要看得更加清楚。一位资深银行家称，2023年上半年，公司上市及并购等交易之所以迟迟未有起色，主要是因为人们不清楚利率如何变动。她认为，目前仍处于美联储数十年来加息速度最快的紧缩周期，美国部分地区性银行也濒临倒闭，故预测长期利率走向也只是胡乱猜想罢了。而长期利率决定了企业的融资成本，也是IPO投资者衡量自己潜在收益的最关键指标。因此，若对未来的“无风险利率”没太多头绪，就没有把握给新股定价。

There is now a growing sense, both in markets and among economists, that the Fed’s rate rises are at or near an end. Yet uncertainty over how long rates will stay high persists, largely due to the surprising resilience of America’s economy. Mostly as a result of this, the yield on ten-year Treasuries—possibly the most important benchmark for investors—has risen by 0.8 percentage points since early May, to 4.2%. Until this measure begins to settle, IPOs will remain hard to price and, as a result, sparse.

现在越来越多投资者和经济学家意识到美联储的加息已经结束，或接近尾声。然而，人们仍然不确定高利率将持续多久，这很大程度是因为美国经济抗压能力惊人。也主要由于这个原因，十年期国债收益率（可能是投资者最重要的参考基准）自今年五月初以来上升了0.8个百分点，达到4.2%。这一指标得稳定下来，我们才能对IPO进行定价，也只有这样，才会有更多公司发起IPO。

A second factor required for listings to resume in earnest is for firms themselves to grow in confidence. “I’ve thought for some time that market readiness would come before company readiness,” says Bank of America’s Mr Palmer. A successful flotation, he says, involves the businesses making a series of reassurances: to regulators, investors and research analysts. The firm will offer guidance on its financial performance not just over the next quarter, but probably over the coming year.

想让上市真正恢复，第二个必要因素是企业自身要更有信心。美国银行的帕尔默表示：“我一度认为市场会比公司更早做好准备。”他说，企业要想成功上市，需要向多方（监管机构、投资者和研究分析师等）做出保证，同时让他们可以判断公司未来一个季度甚至一年财务表现将会如何。

For as long as geopolitical tensions are running high, companies that rely heavily on cross-border trade will find such reassurances fiendishly hard to offer. Virtually all, meanwhile, are hampered by uncertainty over where inflation will settle and whether the world’s big economies have avoided, rather than merely delayed, recessions. Some firms, such as those owned by private-equity funds with limited lifespans, may have few options but to make the jump and list despite the fog of uncertainty. But those with the freedom to choose are more likely to wait until it lifts.

只要地缘政治局势持续紧张，严重依赖跨境贸易的公司将很难向各方提供保证。与此同时，有两点难以确定：最终通胀水平将稳定在何处？全球主要经济体是否躲过（而非延迟）了经济衰退？这两个不确定因素会对几乎所有公司造成影响。一些公司，例如那些由生命周期有限的私募股权基金所有的公司，可能别无选择，只能在不确定性中仓促上市。但是那些能选择是否立刻上市的公司可能会等到局面明朗再行动。

A final, if obvious, requirement for a new IPO boom is that the firms now preparing to float manage to do so successfully. Crucially, says Rachel Gerring of EY, a consultancy, that means their shares end up being sold at around the price investors have been led to expect and then rise from there. That the opposite happened for many of 2021’s floaters was the death knell of the previous boom: few IPO investors want to open their chequebooks without benefiting from the share-price “pop” associated with new listings. In this sense, Arm’s flotation has acquired totemic importance. Should its share price leap, others will be quick to follow; should it flop, they may not.

要想让IPO热潮再度席卷，最后一个必要条件（也许这一点不言而喻）是：现在准备上市的公司都能一举成功。咨询公司安永（EY）的瑞秋·格林（Rachel Gerring）表示，最重要的是，那意味着上市公司的股票最终会以投资者的预期价格（投资者的预期都是受引导的）出售，然后开始上涨。许多上市公司在2021年的情形与此相反，这也为之前的繁荣写下了终章：上一次打新股没有尝到甜头，自然鲜有投资者会再次跳坑。就此而言，Arm的上市具有象征性意义。如果它的股价暴涨，其他公司也会迅速跟上，纷纷寻求上市；而如果它失败了，那些公司可能会静待新的良机。

注释：

1. 2021年美国IPO市场表现强劲，因为投资者对新股的兴趣强烈，因为更广泛的股票指数显着上涨，标准普尔500指数在这一年上涨了26.9%。共有416家公司上市，募集资金总额达1557亿美元，完成IPO的公司数量同比增长86%，IPO融资额同比增长81%。

https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/579469519#

2. 空中楼阁理论：最早流行的证券投资理论，其基本思想是认为股票价格取决于投资者对股价的心理预期。

3. death knell: A signal of the impending end or ruin of something, especially a business, organization, or activity.

Whenever it materialises, the next cohort of IPOs is likely to look substantially different from the class of 2021. With the heady days of rock-bottom interest rates firmly in the past, investors will prize “safer” prospects. This means big firms over small, profits over revenue growth, seasoned executives over newbies, and easy-to-model business plans over more speculative ventures. JPMorgan’s Mr Gupte sees these preferences reflected in a much more diverse group of companies now preparing to go public than did in 2021. Whereas the last wave was dominated by tech firms, he says, the next will involve many more industrial, energy-transition, consumer-focused and health-care outfits.

无论这何时成真，下一批IPO很可能与2021年大相径庭。利率水平触底的欢腾时光早已是过往云烟，投资者将看重“更安全”的前景。这意味着他们更青睐大公司，而非小企业；更青睐已经实现盈利的公司，而非疯狂烧钱把盘子做大的企业；更青睐身经百战的高管，而不是初出茅庐的毛头小子；更青睐易于定价的商业规划，而非疯狂画饼的投机分子。摩根大通的古普特认为，与2021年相比，现在准备上市的公司更多元化，从而反映出了以上种种偏好。他表示，虽然上一波IPO浪潮主要是科技公司屹立潮头，而下一波浪潮将有更多领域的公司参与其中，比如工业、能源转型、消费者导向与医疗领域。

All agree that a return to the breakneck pace of dealmaking that preceded the current drought is unlikely. Central banks are no longer flooding markets with liquidity, the rate rises of the past 18 months could yet tip many economies into recession, and an American stockmarket that is at its most expensive in decades could yet crash. But “if nothing upsets the apple cart”, says Mr Gupte, then a reasonable number of firms should be looking to go public in 2024. All eyes on Arm, then, to see if the apple cart can stay on the road.

业已取得共识的是，出现类似本轮IPO荒漠之前的那种上市公司井喷式上升现象不太可能。各国央行不再“大水漫灌”式刺激市场，过去18个月的升息可能会让许多经济体滑入衰退的深渊，美国股价正处于数十年来的最高水平，有崩盘的风险。然而古普特表示，“如果没有飞来横祸打乱计划的话”，有不少公司应该会在2024年上市。Arm公司已是万众瞩目，现在就看它是否能按部就班地走下去吧。

注释：

1. upset the apple cart: to cause trouble, especially by spoiling someone’s plans

2. look to: to expect something to happen

翻译组：

Devin，荣枯有数，得失难量

Charlie，往者不谏，来者可追

Leon，男，驻外民工，经济学人读者

Octavia，键盘手和古风爵士，逃离舒适圈，有只英短叫八爷

校对组：

Alison，“贪玩又自由的风筝”

Constance，痛终有时，爱必将至

Des，愿你半生追逐便士，归来依旧心有月光

观点|评论|思考

本周感想

Forest，爱树的人，精神小花园持续耕耘中

从历史经验来看，市场显然不是万能的。

比如，在医疗、教育、环境、研究、收入分配等许多方面，仅仅依靠市场解决问题，其结果大抵是令人遗憾甚至是痛苦的。不要说发展中国家、转型经济体，即便是发达国家，也没有办法完全通过市场来理想地处理这些领域的问题。

但是也有很多领域，自由市场是行之有效的。比如市场中的个体、而所有个体的集结会表现出作为整体的市场选择，在何处有获利之机、风险有多大，这样的问题上，市场机制就会表现出极为出色的甄别能力，即便没有充足完备的信息，市场中的人大概率会对此判断出个八九不离十。

如果没有新技术的出现，更重要的也许是技术的通用化、制度的创新和优化，那么这个世界能够给予我们的物质资源早就固定下来了，那不用说IPO这种时髦之物，连股市这种曾经的制度创新也是不需要的。

什么事情，回到最朴素的出发点去看，总是会变简单。好比要看一棵树能不能好好存活和茂盛地生长，单单看它现在有多少叶子是不行的。我们大家都有这种经历…在小区门口之类的地方，没有忍住诱惑，买了推车上上那些葱绿葳蕤的盆栽，回家种了没有几天，枝叶焦黄渐枯，蓬蓬勃勃的一棵植物没过多久，就在我们本来想要美化家居的期待中慢慢萎黄而去。不过即便有这样的经验，我们也还是经常不太忍得住，还会再买。由于和卖植物的人之间有着信息的不对称，加上对美好生活生生不息的期待，常常就想着这次也许还好吧，这样就又入手了一盆两盆的。

所以，如果要改变这种交易的最终结果，其实是需要有一个追偿的制度；或者有简便的方法可以帮助我们鉴定，这植物在进入市场之前有没有被打太多鸡血，以至于只能好好活几天，至少如果是不换土就会这样。

金融市场因为太关乎人们的切身之利，虽然也不够完善，但是比小区门口卖植物的小车子这个市场肯定是要完善许多，大家也在意许多。因而大家的判断也用心了许多。这样的市场，除非已经到集体发热的境地和阶段，大多时候市场的判断时间谨慎而清醒的。

当下的光景，虽然新技术已经入世，但是难道所有人都已经相信这已然是新技术通用化到价值生产领域的历程的起点了吗？或者有什么颠覆性的提升效率、扩大交易范围和数量的制度创新么？万众瞩目的新IPO既不是第一次寻求变现，也是在运用着传统的垄断老模式掐着一众创新企业的脖子，干着明站队、高筑墙、广织网，隐称王的事情，很难说其重返股市是否能给所有人带来繁荣时代即将到来的强烈信心。

在于这些方面的事情上，市场是很能干的，历史经验表明它很多时候都能够低成本地能明察秋毫。

愿景