美国的物流业梦魇 | 经济学人商业
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思维导图作者：
May Li，男，我要去追逐心中的太阳，还要继续努力的亚古兽
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Business | Logistic nightmares
商业 | 物流梦魇
英文部分选自经济学人20230812商业板块
Business | Logistic nightmares
商业 | 物流梦魇
America’s logistics boom has turned to bust
美物流业，月盈而蚀
A pandemic-era frenzy of hiring and investment has gone into reverse
疫情时代的雇佣和投资热潮出现逆转
On August 6th Yellow, one of America’s biggest trucking firms, declared bankruptcy and announced it would wind down operations after 99 years in business. It collapsed under the weight of falling sales and a mountain of debt. That is a heavy blow for its owners and 30,000 staff. It is also emblematic of a sharp reversal taking place in the American logistics industry.
即使拥有99年历史，全美最大卡车货运公司之一Yellow于8月6日宣告破产，并将逐渐结束运营。由于销售额下滑，债务堆积如山，Yellow最终倒闭，这对其所有者和3万名员工都是一记重击。同时，这也标志着美国物流业正经受急剧逆转。
Beginning in 2020 lavish stimulus cheques, combined with a lockdown-induced squeeze on services spending, led American consumers to splurge on goods. Appliances, cars and furniture clogged up ports, warehouses and truck depots. Online deliveries surged as shoppers shunned stores, adding to demand. As consumers groaned over lengthy delays, revenues in the logistics industry soared, increasing by roughly a third between the start of 2020 and mid-2022, according to America’s Census Bureau. Firms in the industry hired 1m workers and built 1.8bn square feet (nearly three Manhattans) of new storage space on hopes that the frothiness would continue.
2020年起，慷慨的经济刺激让消费者的钱包鼓了起来，再加上封锁导致服务业支出缩减，美国消费者开始大肆消费商品。家用电器、汽车和家具堆满了港口、仓库和卡车仓库。顾客不去实体店消费，导致在线配送需求激增。在美国消费者抱怨配送延迟的同时，物流业营收飙升，据美国人口普查局数据显示，自2020年初到2022年中，其增幅将近1/3。物流行业寄望于如此泡沫能够持续，于是新增雇工100万人，并新建储存空间18亿平方英尺（相当于三个曼哈顿大小）。
Now, as the forces that fuelled its rise fizzle out, America’s logistics boom is turning to bust. Consumers are trading the material for the experiential, opting to splash out on holidays and hospitality rather than Hoovers. Goods spending, adjusted for inflation, has stagnated, leaving retailers with excess inventories. Consumers are also returning to physical stores, reducing the number of miles their goodies need to travel to reach them. Revenues in the logistics industry have now clocked up three consecutive quarter-on-quarter declines (see chart). The Cass Freight Index, a measure of rail and truck activity, is down by 5% over the past year. The volume of goods flowing through American ports in July was 14% lower than in the same month last year, according to Descartes, a supply-chain-technology company.
如今随着利好因素减弱，美国物流业的盛况也大不如前。消费者从商品消费转向体验消费，与其购买胡佛牌（Hoover）吸尘器，更加倾向于把钱花在度假和服务业上。通胀调整后的商品消费陷入停滞，导致零售商库存积压。同时，消费者正在回归实体商店，商品运输里程相应减少。物流业的营收已连跌三个季度（见表格）。衡量铁路和货车运输活动的“卡斯货运指数”（Cass Freight Index）在过去一年内下跌了5%。供应链科技公司Descartes的数据显示，7月美国港口的货运总量同比下降了14%。
As demand has slumped, so, too, have prices. The cost of “dry van” shipping—the most common way to transport non-perishable goods on the road—is 21% lower than in early 2022, according to DAT Freight & Analytics, a logistics-data provider. That, in turn, is squeezing margins and putting less competitive firms out of business. Some 20,000 truck operators, nearly 3% of the national total, have ceased activity since mid-2022, says ACT Research, another data provider.
随着需求锐减，价格也一落千丈。根据运输数据提供商DAT货运数据分析公司（DAT Freight & Analytics）的数据，干货集装箱运输（陆路运输不易腐商品的最常用方式）的价格比2022年年初下降了21%。价格下降压缩了利润空间，竞争力不足的货运公司因此被市场淘汰。据另一家数据公司ACT调研公司（ACT Research）称，约2万家货车运输公司（占全美近3%）自2022年年中开始停运。
注释：
dry van：根据网络资料，dry van或dry cargo container称为干货集装箱、杂货集装箱或通用集装箱，用于装运除液体货物、需调节温度的货物、特种货物以外的一般货物。
Those that have survived are shedding staff. American parcel-delivery firms have jettisoned 38,700 workers since October last year when employment in the sector peaked, based on data from the Bureau of Labour Statistics. Warehouse operators have cut 60,800. More retrenchments are likely to come, given the frenzied hiring of the past few years.Lay-offs in the industry have thus far fallen short of what one might expect given the stagnation in consumer spending, argues Aaron Terrazas, chief economist of Glassdoor, an employment portal. Having long suffered from labour shortages, many firms have been reluctant to lay off workers, reckons Tim Denoyer of act Research.
那些存活下来的物流公司开始削减人员。美国劳工统计局的数据显示，美国快递业自去年10月聘用高峰以来，已裁员3.87万人。仓储业则已裁员6.08万人。由于过去几年的疯狂招聘，预计未来还将有更多裁员。招聘平台玻璃门（Glassdoor）首席经济分析师亚伦·特拉萨斯（Aaron Terrazas）认为，考虑到消费支出停滞，当前物流业的裁员规模较预期要小。ACT调研公司的蒂姆·德努瓦耶（Tim Denoyer）认为，很多公司因长期劳动力短缺，现在并不愿意裁员。
Investments are being slashed, too. The number of warehouses under construction in America has fallen by 40% from a year ago, observes Prologis, a warehousing giant. Amazon, America’s biggest online retailer, doubled its warehouse footprint in the country during the pandemic. In the past year the e-empire has either postponed investments in, scrapped plans for or closed 116 properties, reckons mwpvl, a logistics consultancy.
大幅削减的还有投资。根据仓储巨头Prologis的数据，美国在建仓库的数量比一年前减少了40%。疫情期间，美国最大在线零售商亚马逊将其在美国的仓库面积扩大了一倍。据物流咨询公司MWPVL计算，在过去一年里，对于116处物流地产，这家电商巨头或是推迟投资，或者取消计划，又或者直接关门闭户。
Troubles with unions are adding to the industry’s headache. Earlier this year dockworkers at several west-coast ports went on strikes linked to pay negotiations. ups and FedEx, America’s two largest parcel-delivery businesses, have also faced unrest. Yellow’s management blames its collapse on the Teamstersunion, which blocked a restructuring plan.
让物流业头疼的还有工会带来的麻烦。今年早些时候，西海岸几个港口的码头工人因薪资谈判未见进展而举行罢工。美国最大的两家快递公司联合包裹（UPS）和联邦快递（FedEx）也面临动荡局面。Yellow的管理层将其倒闭归咎于卡车司机工会（Teamsters union），因为其中断了公司的重组计划。
注释：
据悉，美国西海岸港口码头雇主太平洋海事协会与代表码头工人的国际码头和仓库联盟之间的合同已于7月1日到期，双方进行的谈判未能达成任何协议。港口工人周三的行动立即导致三个主要码头关闭。
Optimists hope the sector will start moving again in the second half of the year, once retailers finish clearing their excess inventories and start restocking their shelves. Analysts expect ups, whose revenues have shrunk year on year for the past three quarters, to return to growth before the end of 2023. FedEx is expected to be growing again by next year. That may well come to pass, provided the American economy continues to be surprisingly strong. But it will be cold comfort for the businesses that will have gone bust along the way.
乐观人士希望，当零售商清理完过剩库存并开始重新进货之后，物流业能在今年下半年实现复苏。联合包裹过去三个季度的收入均同比下降，分析师预计，其将在2023年年底前恢复增长。联邦快递预计也会在明年恢复增长。如果美国经济能保持惊人的强劲势头，物流业的复苏很可能会实现，即便如此，一些物流企业已经濒临破产，行业复苏已然于事无补。
翻译组：
Iris，博物馆小可爱
Forest，爱树的人，精神小花园持续耕耘中
Cassie，准MTI，一心想吃口译面，早日坐进小黑屋
校对组：
UU，日日行，不怕千万里
Constance，痛终有时，爱必将至
Collin，男，崇拜科比的一枚小翻译
Harold，奔波中追寻星空ing，分无义乐真谛
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