AI狂潮下的美股牛市，风口or 泡沫 | 经济学人财经

财经板块 | 梧桐树专栏

英文部分选自经济学人20230710期财经版块

Surging stockmarkets are powered by artificial intelligence

人工智能助推股市飙升

We calculate the extent to which the recent rally depends on tech optimism

我们计算了最近的反弹在多大程度上归功于对科技的乐观情绪

Do you buy the hype? The release of Chatgpt, a tool designed by Openai, has kicked off a wave of enthusiasm about artificial intelligence (ai). Everyone from spy agencies to law firms is trying to make use of the technology. And investors are working out how they might be able to take advantage by buying ai-exposed firms.

你会“入股”AI吗？由Openai 设计的Chatgpt一经发布就引发了一股人工智能（AI）热潮。从间谍机构到律师事务所，每个人都在试图利用这项技术。而投资者也正在研究如何利用这一波“AI概念股”获利。  

注释：

Hype: Hype is the use of a lot of publicity and advertising to make people interested in something such as a product. 天花乱坠的广告宣传;炒作

In the stockmarket this has manifested itself as an almighty boom in the valuation of tech companies. Openai might be private, but the s&p 500 index of leading American shares contains more than a dozen firms that design ai software, have invented or build the computing chips that make ai possible, or run the data centres that the tech relies on. The latest firm to experience an aiinduced rally is Nvidia. The Californian company’s share price has risen by almost 23% since it reported unexpectedly strong earnings on May 24th, and has more than doubled in the year to date. Nvidia is now the fifth most valuable listed corporate entity in America.

在股票市场上，这股AI热潮体现在科技公司估值大幅增长。Openai 不是上市公司，但是以美国顶尖公司作为成分股的标普500指数中包含了十多家相关科技公司，有的设计AI软件，有的发明或制造AI所需的计算芯片，有的则运营AI科技所依赖的数据中心。最新一家在AI热潮的带动下股价反弹的公司是英伟达（Nvidia）。自5月24日发布超预期收益以来，这家加利福尼亚公司的股价已经上涨近23%，而年初至今已经翻了一番多。现在英伟达是美国市值第五大上市公司。

注释：

Manifested ：V-ERG 及物/不及物动词 显示;显露 If you manifest a particular quality, feeling, or illness, or if it manifests itself, it becomes visible or obvious.

Yet it is not just tech firms that are thriving. The ai boom has coincided with a broader recovery in stockmarkets, which were battered last year by a combination of high inflation and rising rates. The s&p 500 is up by 8% since Chatgpt was launched, and has risen almost 20% from its October low. This prompts a question. Just how much of the rally is explained by ai enthusiasm?

不过蓬勃发展的不只是科技公司。这股AI热潮恰好赶上股市大面积复苏，去年在高通胀和利率上升的共同作用下，股市遭受重创。自Chatgpt推出以来，标普500指数上涨了8%，与去年10月份的低点相比，上涨了近20%。这让人不禁疑惑：这次反弹多大程度上归功于AI热潮？

注释：

Coincide：巧合;同时发生；If one event coincides with another, they happen at the same time. 

To answer such a question, it is necessary first to rule out the usual culprits for major market moves: namely, shifting interest-rate or growth expectations. After all, owning a share is ultimately a claim on the future earnings of a firm. One way of working out the value of a share today is by estimating future earnings, and potential growth, before applying a discount or interest rate to calculate its value. This time around a shifting macro outlook cannot illuminate market movements. In November investors thought the federal-funds rate would rise to around 5-5.5% by the end of 2023. Although sentiment has oscillated, it has settled at about the same place. An average of earnings expectations for the year is also where it was six months ago.

要回答这个问题，首先要排除导致市场大幅波动的常见因素：即利率或增长预期的变化。毕竟，拥有一支股票的根本目的是获取一家公司的未来收益。计算股票当下价值的一种方法是，先预估未来的收益和潜在的增长，之后再应用折现率或利率来计算其价值。此次宏观前景的转变无法说明市场走势。去年11月，投资者认为，联邦基金利率到2023年年底将升至5-5.5%左右。尽管市场情绪有所波动，但预测的利率区间基本维持不变。对今年的平均预期收益也和六个月前的预期持平。

注释：

Oscillate：水平、价值等波动，浮动；If the level or value of something oscillates between one amount and another, it keeps going up and down between the two amounts.

The next step is more straightforward: it involves quantifying the size of the ai bounce. Analysts reckon that the s&p 500 has 14 firms with significant exposure to the tech. These include well-known giants, such as Google and Microsoft, and lesser-known providers of underlying infrastructure, like Arista and NetApp, two data-centre companies. On its own, the price of Nvidia is responsible for an enormous slice of the stockmarket recovery. Since the end of November the firm’s market capitalisation has soared from under $400bn to $925bn—accounting for a fifth of the rally. Add Nvidia’s surge to the growing market capitalisations of the 13 other firms with ai exposure and a remarkable 73% of the broader rally is explained. The boom in ai stocks has comfortably outstripped the wider tech rebound. The nasdaq is up by a fifth since November, compared with a third for the most ai-exposed firms.

下一步更简单，主要是量化AI股票反弹对股市的影响程度。分析人士认为，标普500公司中有14家与AI技术高度关联。这些公司既包括闻名遐迩的科技巨头，如谷歌和微软，也包括鲜为人知的底层基础设施提供商，如数据中心公司Arista和NetApp。仅英伟达一家公司的股价上涨就对股市恢复带来了巨大影响。该公司的市值从去年11月底的不到4000亿美元飙升至9250亿美元，贡献了股市五分之一的复苏。英伟达和其他13家市值上涨的AI相关公司共同贡献了股市73%的显著增长。AI股票的涨势已经远远超过普通科技股。自去年11月以来，纳斯达克指数上涨了20%，而与AI高度关联的公司股价则上涨了三分之一。

注释：

1.Nvidia：英伟达是一家人工智能计算公司。公司创立于1993年，总部位于美国加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉市。美籍华人Jensen Huang（黄仁勋）是创始人兼CEO。2023年5月30日，英伟达成为首家市值达到1万亿美元的芯片企业，史上第九家跨入美元市值“万亿俱乐部”的企业。

https://baike.baidu.com/item/NVIDIA/325313?fromtitle=%E8%8B%B1%E4%BC%9F%E8%BE%BE&fromid=10194375&fr=aladdin

2.Outstrip 超过: If one thing outstrips another, the first thing becomes larger in amount, or more successful or important, than the second thing（柯林斯）

That ai optimism is the driver of the recent rally becomes even clearer when looking at share price “multiples”, which divide current prices by current or future earnings. These multiples are affected by earnings and economic factors like interest rates, but also by more nebulous things under the broad label of “animal spirits”. In November the average price to current earnings multiple of an s&p 500 firm, excluding the 14 most exposed to ai, was around 27. As we went to press, the multiple had dipped to 26. Meanwhile, the average multiple of firms in our ai bucket had leapt from 43 to 77.

如果研究一下“股价倍数”，即当前股价除以当前或未来收益，就可以更加清楚地认识到，助推最近股市上涨的是市场对AI的乐观情绪。股价倍数既受收益和经济因素（如利率）的影响，也受更加难以捉摸的因素（统称“动物精神”）影响。去年11月，除了与AI高度关联的14家公司外，其余标普500公司的平均股价与当前收益之比为27。在本文发布时，这一数据已经轻微下滑至26。与此同时，AI相关公司的平均股价倍数已经从43跃升至77。

注释：

1.股价倍数：https://prepnuggets.com/cfa-level-1-study-notes/equity-investments-study-notes/equity-valuation/major-categories-of-equity-valuation-models/

2.动物精神：

这是英国经济学家凯恩斯于1936年提出的经济术语，是指在经济生活中，撇除人类理性方面，而剩余的内在东西，通俗的讲就是人们不理性的方面。

https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/%E5%8B%95%E7%89%A9%E6%9C%AC%E8%83%BD

拓展阅读：http://jjckb.xinhuanet.com/opinion/2013-10/23/content_472294.htm

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/valuation/types-of-valuation-multiples/

These multiples might be justified. Excitement about Nvidia’s prospects has been prompted by orders for the company’s chips. During the firm’s earnings call representatives suggested that booming growth in income from data-centre chips would lift total revenues in the second quarter to $11bn, double their level in the previous year.

这些“股价倍数”或许是合理的。由于英伟达芯片订单增加，其前景被看好。在英伟达财报电话会议中，代表们表示，数据中心芯片收入快速增长，将把第二季度总收入推升至110亿美元，与去年同期相比翻一番。

On the other hand, investors have been known to get overexcited about novel technologies.The internet made a new generation of companies (and their bumper profits) possible. It set off a wave of productivity improvements for economies around the world. The problem is that much of this happened after a stockmarket bubble, which caused speculators to lose their shirts. It is obvious that investors making bets on ai must assess whether the hype is justified this time around. But such is the importance of ai to the broader stockmarket, so must everyone else, too.

从另一个角度看，众所周知，投资者往往对新技术过于兴奋。互联网使新一代公司（及其丰厚利润）成为可能。互联网给世界各地的经济体掀起了一波提振效率的浪潮。问题是，这种情况大多发生在股市泡沫之后，投机者也因此损失惨重。显然，押注人工智能的投资者必须评估这次的炒作是否合理。但考虑到人工智能对于更广泛的股票市场而言十分重要，其他利益攸关方也不得不作出评估。

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