经济学人财经||欧洲央行必须勇于打破自我规则

The European Central Bank

欧洲中央银行

Space exploration

勇于探索

To revive Europe’s ailing economies, the bank must break its own rules

为重振欧洲低迷的经济，欧洲央行必须打破自我规则。

The european central bank’s firepower is sadly depleted. The interest rate on the reserves that banks hold with it is sub-zero; its quantitative-easing (qe) scheme has hoovered up assets worth €2.6trn ($2.9trn)—equivalent to over a fifth of the euro area’s gdp. Even so, in June Mario Draghi, the bank’s boss, promised further stimulus if the economy does not buck up. Statistics published since then suggest little recovery. Cue much speculation about another attempt to revive growth.

不幸的是，欧洲央行(ecb)的火力已然消耗殆尽。银行持有的准备金利率低于零，量化宽松政策所带来的资金高达2.6万亿欧元(合2.9万亿美元)，相当于欧元区GDP的五分之一还多。即便如此，今年6月，欧洲央行行长马里奥•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)承诺，如果经济持续低迷，未来还将采取进一步的刺激措施。而后公布的统计数据显示经济几乎没有复苏迹象， 引发了人们对欧行将会再次试图刺激增长的猜测。

Many expect an announcement at the bank’s meeting in September, along with updated economic forecasts. But its next gathering on July 25th could still surprise, or at least lay the groundwork for stimulus. With individual instruments nearing limits, it is expected to deploy a combination.

多方预计欧洲央行会在9月份的会议期间宣布新一轮刺激措施，同时更新经济展望。但其7月25日的会议仍有惊喜可期，至少会为新的刺激措施给予前瞻性指引。随着单一刺激工具效果趋于极限，预计它将推出政策工具组合。

Of late its weapon of choice has been guidance on the path of interest rates. It has promised to keep rates steady for longer, at least until mid-2020. But markets expect rates not merely to stay on hold, but to fall—by a tenth of a percentage point, from -0.4%, in coming months.

近来，欧洲央行选择的“武器”一直是引导汇率走向。央行承诺将使利率稳定期延长，至少维持到2020年中。但市场预计利率不仅不会保持稳定，反而在接下来的几个月利率会由目前的-0.4%再降低10个基点（0.1%）。

Banks complain that negative interest rates shrink their margins: they have to pay the central bank to hold their deposits, but fear that if they pass negative rates on, their depositors will withdraw their cash. Profits and lending both fall, preventing the rate from transmitting to the real economy. For now, the ecb reckons it has not reached the “effective lower bound”—the point at which the expansionary effects of negative interest rates stop outweighing any costs. But unwanted side-effects may appear as rates go lower.

银行抱怨准备金负利率缩减了他们的利润，他们不得不向央行支付存款利息，但是他们担心如果同样执行负利率，储户会赎回现金。利润和借贷数目同时下降，阻止了该利率传递至实体经济。就目前而言，欧洲央行认为还没有达到“有效利率下限”——在这一下限点，负利率的扩张效应不再超过任何成本。但随着利率走低，可能出现不受欢迎的副作用。

Some economists therefore expect attempts to mitigate the negative impact of rate cuts by excusing banks from negative rates on some excess reserves. Even then rates may be not far off the lower bound. Analysts at BNP Paribas, a bank, think they can fall by at most 0.4 percentage points before that moment comes.

因此，有经济学家建议可以使银行部分超额准备金免除负利率的惩罚，希望以此减轻降息的负面影响。尽管如此，利率仍有可能触近下限。法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）分析师认为在此之前，利率仍可能最多下降0.4个百分点。

That limited space is why some economists also expect the bank to restart QE later in the year. Daniele Antonucci of Morgan Stanley, a Wall Street firm, expects the bank to announce monthly purchases of government and corporate debt of €45bn. But the bank’s self-imposed limit on the share of a country’s sovereign debt it can own, of 33%, means this pace probably cannot be sustained beyond a year.

可操作空间的受限让一些经济学家同样寄望于央行下半年重启量化宽松货币政策（QE）。华尔街摩根士丹利公司（Morgan Stanley）的丹尼尔·安东尼奇（Daniele Antonucci）预计央行将宣布每月购买450亿欧元政府债券和企业债券。但央行对其主权债券所占债务份额设定的自我设限为33%，这意味着若每月以这样的购买速度，可能无法维持一年。

注：

Quantitative easing is an unconventional monetary policy in which a central bank purchases government securities or other securities from the market in order to increase the money supply and encourage lending and investment.

量化宽松为非常规货币政策，主要指中央银行（在实行零利率或近似零利率政策后），通过购买国债或其他债券，增加基础货币供给，向市场注入大量流动性资金的干预方式，以鼓励投资和借贷，也被简化地形容为间接增印钞票。

This ceiling would need to be lifted if any expansion of qe is to seem credible to investors, reckons Spyros Andreopoulos of bnp Paribas. Though qe’s legality is questioned in Germany, in December the European Court of Justice ruled that the ecb was acting legally, appearing to give it room to raise its limit up to 50%. (The case returns to German courts at the end of the month, but judges are expected to bow to the ecj.) In any case the bank would need to rethink another self-imposed rule, says Mr Andreopoulos: that it avoid holding shares of individual securities large enough that it can sway the outcome of investor votes on any future debt restructuring.

法国巴黎银行的Spyros Andreopoulos认为：如果要使扩大量化宽松对投资者具有可信度，那么欧洲央行自我设置的上限就需要被提高。虽然量化宽松的合法性在德国受到质疑，但欧洲法院（ECJ）于12月裁定欧洲央行操作合法，意味着欧行可以将其上限提至50％（该案将于月底返回德国法院，但法官们预计会服从ECJ裁决。）Andreopoulos先生表示：无论如何，欧洲央行需要重新考虑另一项自身限定——央行一直避免持有大到可以左右未来债务重组时投资者投票结果的个别债券。

注：

Debt restructuring is a process used by companies to avoid the risk of default on existing debt or to take advantage of lower available interest rates. Debt restructuring can be carried out by individuals on the brink of insolvency as well, and by countries that are heading for default on sovereign debt.

Source:https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/debtrestructuring.asp

Even with all this, the ecb’s ability to cope alone with a serious downturn would be limited. Even as Mr Draghi assured markets he had the firepower, he warned that without fiscal support monetary easing risked being slow to boost the economy, with possible unwanted side-effects. Negative borrowing costs across many member states make the case for dusting off fiscal tools even more obvious. But Europe’s governments guard their ammunition more jealously than central bankers do. (不确定)

即便施以上述全部措施，欧洲央行独自应对严重经济衰退的能力也是有限的。尽管德拉吉向市场保证他火力十足，但他警示到如果没有财政支持，货币宽松政策对经济的推动效果缓慢，并可能伴随着不美好的副作用。蔓延众多成员国的负借贷成本使得重新采用财政调控政策的理由更为明显。但是与欧洲央行相比，欧洲成员国政府对使用自己的“军火”显得更为谨慎。

注：
dust off: in BRIT, also use dust down

1.phrasal verb 重新采用（旧方法）

If you say that someone dusts something off or dusts it down, you mean they are using an old idea or method, rather than trying something new.

2.phrasal verb 重新振作

If you say that someone has dusted himself or herself off or dusted himself or herself down, you mean that they have managed to recover from a severe problem which has affected their life.

3.phrasal verb 拍去灰尘

If someone dusts down something or dusts dirt off something, they remove dirt or dust from it.

Source:https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/dust-off

翻译组： 

Olivia，教育从业者，经济学人粉丝

Lucia ，女，翻译学硕士三年制，经济学人粉丝

crystal, 女，经济学在读，爱文艺爱学习不爱考试

Martina，女，谷歌广告从业者，爱电影爱生活，爱金融经济

校对组：

Emily，食物链底端金融民工，经济学人粉丝

Alex，男，工科研究生，文学与科学爱好者，经济学人忠实读者