富裕国家的房地产危机远未结束 | 经济学人财经

Finance & economics | Pain to come

痛苦还在后头呢

英文部分选自经济学人20230408财经版块

Finance & economics | Pain to come

痛苦还在后头呢

The rich world’s housing crunch is far from over

富裕国家的房地产危机远未结束

At times during the long boom that followed the global financial crisis of 2007-09, it seemed as if house prices would never stop rising. Sales surged as ultra-low interest rates and supply shortages boosted competition for properties. Things are very different today. In countries across the rich world, from America to New Zealand, sales have cratered, as central banks embarked on the sharpest monetary-policy tightening in four decades. In many markets prices are now heading in the wrong direction, too, at least from the perspective of homeowners.

07-09年的全球金融危机之后，世界经历了相当长时间的繁荣，在当时看来，房价似乎永远不会停止上涨。超低利率和供应短缺让人们竞相购房，房地产销售激增。今天一切都不同了。从美国到新西兰，随着富裕世界的各国央行开始实施40年来最严厉的货币紧缩政策，这些国家的销售额大幅下降。在许多市场，房价也朝着房主不希望看到的方向持续走低。

Yet with the bulk of central banks’ rate rises behind them, many in the property industry are starting to wonder if the worst may soon be over. In March both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England raised rates by a mere quarter of a percentage point. Markets are pricing in at most one more rise from each. The world economy has so far proved resilient to the stress of tighter policy, even as a handful of commercial banks have gone to the wall. This has given investors and homeowners hope that prices may soon hit a trough. Perhaps the long-feared housing crunch will turn out to be less terrible than expected.

然而，随着央行加息进入尾声，许多房地产业内人士开始猜测，最糟糕的时期是不是快要过去了。今年3月，美联储和英国央行均仅加息0.25个百分点。市场预计两者最多再各加息一次。尽管目前有少数几家商业银行陷入困境，但目前看来，全球经济面对政策收紧的压力展现出了强劲的韧性。这给了投资者和房主希望，房价可能很快就会触底。或许，人们一直以来所担心的房地产市场危机最终将没有预期的那么可怕。

注释：

1.Pricing in：指市场正在预期某种结果，这种结果通常指未来某个时间点可能发生的事件或变化。The markets are pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed next month. 市场正在预期美联储下个月将降息25个基点。

2.a handful of：一把；少量的；一小部分

3.go to the wall：通常用来描述企业、银行等无法承受财务压力而破产或倒闭的情况。它的意思是彻底崩溃或垮台。

4.hit a trough：触底，到达最低点

Such optimism will probably prove unwarranted. Just as rate rises took time to hit property, so relief will come with a delay. Cushions that have softened the blow are beginning to look threadbare. Although fixed-rate mortgages, which protect holders from increased costs, are more common outside America than they used to be, most are fixed for short periods. In Britain, for instance, nearly half the fixed-rate stock is fixed for no more than two years. Indeed, more than two-fifths of mortgage-holders will move to new terms this year. Meanwhile, piles of excess savings built up during the pandemic no longer provide as much protection, having been drawn down in the years since. Surveys suggest lower-income households in the euro zone have largely exhausted their buffers.

这种乐观情绪很可能是一场空。正如加息需要一段时间才能冲击到房地产市场一样，楼市回暖也得好事多磨。很多有助于楼市软着陆的因素已经不复存在。虽然固定利率抵押贷款在美国以外地区比以前更普遍，可以保护贷款人免受加息的影响，但大多数是短期固定利率。例如，在英国，近一半的固定利率抵押贷款的固定期限不超过两年。事实上，超过五分之二的抵押贷款持有人今年将要签订新的条款合同。与此同时，疫情期间积累的过剩储蓄现在不再提供同样多的保护，因为这些储蓄已经在之后的几年中被逐渐使用掉了。调查显示，欧元区低收入家庭用于缓解经济冲击的储蓄资金几乎已经用光了。

注释：

1.cushions：something providing support or protection against impact; 用来提供支持或保护，以防止冲击的物品。这个词在文章中被用来描述当市场遭受打击时，被用来缓和打击的物品。

2.threadbare：(of fabric or clothing) becoming thin and tattered with age; (面料或衣物) 因年代久远而变得磨损。这个词在文章中用来描述过多次使用而变得不再有效的缓冲物品。

3.drawn down：gradually use up or exhaust a supply of something; 逐渐使用或耗尽某物的供应。这个表达在上文中被用来描述在疫情期间积累的储蓄在过去几年中被消耗的情况。

When assessing how far prices still have to fall, the rich world can be split into three. Start with the early adjusters, which include Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Sweden. In many, central bankers were quick to respond to inflation. The countries saw house prices soar in the pandemic, as buyers gorged on cheap credit, taking out mortgages mostly on variable-rate terms. According to the oecd, a rich-country club, prices have dropped by 14% in Sweden and New Zealand since their peaks. In Australia they have fallen by 9%. Its central bank did not raise rates until May, but households entered the period with lots of debt, which averaged more than 200% of net disposable income in 2021, making them more exposed to higher interest rates. Goldman Sachs, a bank, forecasts eventual drops, relative to peaks, of 19% in New Zealand, 17% in Sweden and 15% in Australia, suggesting that a bit more pain is to come in these countries.

当评估房价还会下跌到何种地步时，富裕国家表现并不一致，大体有以下三种情形。首先是早期调整者，包括澳大利亚、加拿大、新西兰和瑞典。其中，多个国家的央行官员们迅速对通胀作出回应。疫情期间，由于购房者纷纷涌向廉价信贷，且主要选择浮动利率贷款，房价在这些国家开启了一场场的狂飙。据富国俱乐部经合组织称，瑞典和新西兰的房价与巅峰相比已下跌14%。澳大利亚则下跌9%。其央行去年5月才开始加息，但是负债累累的家庭——2021年平均债务超过净可支配收入的200%，更易遭受更高利率的影响。高盛银行预测，与峰值房价相比，最终新西兰将下跌19%，瑞典下跌17%，澳大利亚下跌15%，意味着这些国家要遭受的苦痛远不止此。

Next are the bullet-dodgers. The most prominent member of this group is America, where homeowners are insulated from tightening by fixed-rate mortgages that often last for two or three decades. After the subprime-lending crisis that started in 2007, regulators pushed borrowers towards such loans, which, together with stricter lending rules, are less likely to lead to mass defaults and thus blow up the financial system. According to Goldman, America has already seen half its predicted peak-to-trough drop of just 5%. Meanwhile, France, where prices held up in 2022, is predicted to see an even more paltry drop of 4%. The country benefits from low household debt, which averaged 124% of net disposable income in 2021.

第二类国家成功的躲过了这波冲击。其中最引人注目的当属美国，该国房主选择固定利率房贷，通常期限为二三十年，因此得以免受紧缩政策影响。2007年次贷危机过后，监管部门就力推借贷人选择固定利率房贷，加之贷款规则变得更严格，不太可能引发大规模违约、乃至冲击金融系统。据高盛预计，美国房价高峰至低谷的跌幅仅为5%，目前跌幅已过半。同时，2022年法国房价保持不变，预计其跌幅为更小的4%。该国受益于低家庭债务——2021年平均债务占净可支配收入的124%。

Last are the slow movers, which have not yet been hit hard, but are unlikely to escape a correction. Although prices in Britain have already fallen by 5%, worse may still be to come: Capital Economics, a consultancy, forecasts a 12% peak-to-trough drop. The country’s homebuilders are sounding the alarm. Many are holding off on new homes; some are dangling cash for buyers. Persimmon, Britain’s second-biggest builder, has even offered to pay mortgages for up to ten months, in an attempt to prop up demand. The German Property Federation, a lobby group, predicts that just 245,000 apartments will be finished in Germany this year, falling well short of the government’s target of 400,000.

最后一类可谓是不是不报，时候未到。虽然它们尚未受到重创，但不太可能幸免于难。尽管英国房价已经下跌了5%，但更糟糕的情况可能还在后头：咨询公司凯投宏观（Capital Economics）预测，从峰值到低谷的跌幅将达到12%。英国的房屋建筑商正在敲响警钟。许多公司暂停建造新房，有些则为购买者提供现金激励。英国第二大房地产开发商Persimmon甚至提出支付长达10个月的月供，以期刺激需求。游说团体德国房地产联合会（German Property Federation）预测，今年德国将只有24.5万套公寓完工，远低于政府的40万套目标。

Since slumping prices have been driven by higher interest rates, they are unlikely to make housing more affordable. Those who want to get on the property ladder face eye-watering monthly payments. In Canada, an early adjuster, the average buyer of a detached home now needs to spend nearly 70% of their pre-tax household income on mortgage payments, property taxes and utility bills, according to the Royal Bank of Canada, up from 46% at the start of 2020. Falling prices will always make homeowners unhappy. This time around even would-be buyers have little to cheer.

由于房价下跌是由更高的利率驱动的，因此房贷的压力不太可能降低。那些想成为有房一族的人面临着令人瞠目的月供。根据加拿大皇家银行（Royal Bank of Canada）的数据，加拿大作为早期调整的国家，平均而言，要想供一套独立式住宅，购房者现在需要将其税前家庭收入的近70%用于支付月供、房产税和水电费，而在2020年初，这个比例仅为46%。房价下跌总是会让有房一族不高兴。这一次，即使是想瞅着机会买房的人也乐不起来。

翻译组：

Ellie，女，金融硕士，经济学人粉丝

Summerr，Stay hungry, stay foolish

Summer，女，QE在职，梦想能仗走天涯 翻译/音乐 /健康

校对组：

Cecilia，今年过得贵妇一点
Diamond，男，血汗工厂搬砖工，经济学人粉丝

Jessie Lulu，女，金融从业者，爱阳光，爱细雨，爱经济学人