经济学人财经 || 宏观对冲基金发展受抑，但宏观交易员不会退出舞台

Buttonwood

梧桐树专栏

A league of their own

独具一格

Do not write off the macro hedge-fund manager just yet

宏观对冲基金经理下课还为时尚早

If you watch much too much televised football (soccer, if you must), you will often hear a particular lament. Whatever happened to the playmakers, the socks-rolled-down mavericks whose individualism could alter the course of a match? The question is invariably posed by grizzled ex-pros. They are saddened but also puzzled by the systematising of the modern game. Players go through a series of prescribed moves (“automatisms”) when they get the ball. Passages of play are minutely choreographed.

如果你常看足球赛事电视转播（如果你一定要说叫soccer，也行），那你一定常听到某种感叹。中场球员们现在表现如何，那些将袜子翻下的特立独行侠们还能掌控比赛进程么？这个问题往往由那些退役的职业选手提出。他们为现代足球赛的流程化感到难过的同时又表示困惑。现在的足球运动员拿到球后展示的一系列规范化动作，甚至整个传球过程都是被精确计算安排好的。

注：
1.Football:英式英语中为足球，美式英语中为橄榄球，soccer为足球；

2.Lament：to express sadness and feeling sorry about something  n.痛哭、悲叹

3.Playmaker：in games such as football, a player whose main job is to organize and control a team's attacking play  英文圈喜欢用“playmaker”这一阵型术语，特指位置居中，负责整体进攻组织的中场球员

4.Maverick：a person who thinks and acts in an independent way, often behaving differently from the expected or usual way  n.不服从的人，独行的人

5.Choreograph：to plan an event or course of action very carefully  v.精心策划的、编排的

This leads us smoothly to Louis Bacon, a game-changer in the world of “macro” hedge funds, which make bold bets ahead of predicted shifts in the macroeconomic climate. Mr Bacon is to close Moore Capital, the hedge fund he founded in 1989, to outside investors following poor returns. Many of his peers have already quit the game. Hedge funds are bleeding institutional capital.

这自然让我们联想到了宏观对冲基金领域的游戏规则改变者路易斯·培根（Louis Bacon），宏观对冲基金通常在宏观经济环境预期变化前进行豪赌。因收益率不佳，培根即将关停于1989年成立的摩尔资本（Moore Capital）。其许多同行更是早已退出。如今，机构投资资本大量撤离对冲基金。

注：

Louis Bacon    路易斯·培根在 “宏观”投资概念仍是一个较为新兴的投资理念时，押注萨达姆•侯赛将入侵科威特，采用做多石油做空股市的手段达到86%的回报率。此外，他也曾在1987年10月美国股市大崩盘前通过做空全球指数赚得大笔利润。1990年他在日本股市崩盘前故技重施大获全胜。培根还在2000年3月互联网泡沫高峰期抛售大量科技股，收入颇丰。这几次成功的投资，也最终使他得以跻身福布斯富豪榜之列。

Cue much sad shaking of heads by grizzled ex-pros. The markets game has changed, they grumble. It is now a playing field for well-drilled algorithmic traders or for index funds which passively hold a basket of leading stocks. The minutely choreographed policies of central banks act to suppress the market volatility that hedge funds thrive on. There is no place for the individualist who makes a variety of bets at his own discretion. A lot of this is true. But the prognosis is too bleak. Many of the greatest hedge-fund trades have been bets that official efforts to suppress volatility, such as exchange-rate pegs, would ultimately fail. Playmakers of Mr Bacon’s stamp will surely make a comeback.

这让许多“退役”交易员们不禁摇头叹息，抱怨市场游戏玩法变了。如今已是精确计算的算法交易投资或追踪一揽子龙头股的被动型指数基金的天下了。因为央行通过“精心设计的政策”来抑制市场大幅波动，而市场波动正是对冲基金赖以生存的基础，因此留给那些依靠自我判断进行豪赌的个人主义者发挥的空间就不那么大了（此处呼应第一段的特例独行者mavericks）。尽管大体确实是这么回事儿，但预期还是过于悲观了。许多表现优异的对冲基金交易员已在下注央行旨在抑制波动的种种行为定会失败，如钉住汇率制。诸如培根这样的场控交易员终将回归。

注：

Prognosis：a statement of what is judged likely to happen in the future, especially in connection with a particular situation:

Exchange-rate pegs 钉住汇率制为一国货币与其它某一种或某一篮子货币之间保持比较稳定的比价，即钉住所选择的货币。本国货币随所选货币的波动而波动，但相互之间的比价相对固定或只在小范围内浮动，一般幅度不超过1%。被钉住的一般是主要工业国家的货币或IMF的特别提款权。

To understand why, go back to the 1970s when a first wave of macro traders, including George Soros and Michael Marcus, made their names and a lot of their money. The end of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates created opportunities. There were newly volatile currencies to wager on. Inflation also surged. This, along with advances in the pricing of commodity futures and options, spurred interest in the trading of grains, beans and metals. A new school of macro traders, which later included Mr Bacon, emerged from the Commodities Corporation, a trading company founded in 1970. Commodity markets provided a great training for trading currencies and bonds. Supply veered from shortage to glut. Official price controls added to the fun. The shifting forces of global economics and politics amplified the volatility.

想了解其中原因，则可追溯至上世纪七十年代——包括乔治·索罗斯（George Soros）和迈克尔·马库斯（Michael Marcus）在内的第一批宏观交易员就在当时扬名立万，赚得盆满钵满。布雷顿森林体系下固定汇率制度的终结为其创造了机会。彼时，新增的浮动汇率货币提供了下注获利的机会，通货膨胀也一路飙升，加上商品期货和期权定价的上涨，这些都激发了人们对谷物、大豆和贵金属交易的兴趣。Commodities Corporation成立于1970年，而后该公司好比宏观交易员的“黄埔军校”，培根也曾就职于此。商品市场为货币和债券交易提供了绝佳的交易环境：供应从短缺转向过剩；政府的价格调控为形势平添乐趣；全球经济和政治力量的转移加剧了市场波动。

注：

1.George Soros：著名货币投机家、股票投资家，量子基金创始人及顾问，该对冲基金曾多次以金融工具试图袭击许多国家的货币而得利，如1997年狙击泰铢及港币，引发亚洲金融风暴。

2.Michael Marcus：商品和外汇交易员，Commodities Corporation公司的创始人之一，也是其中主要的外汇交易员。因在不到20年时间内将初始资金3万美元增值至8000万美元而闻名市场。

3.Macro Trader：是指根据对经济增长、通胀、货币政策和财政政策等宏观观点，在债券、外汇、股指、商品等资产之间寻找机会的交易员。他们往往下注某一类资产相对于其他资产高估/低估，而非某一类资产自身的涨跌。

4.Bretton Woods system: 布雷顿森林体系是1944年7月至1973年间，世界上大部分国家加入以美元作为国际货币中心的货币体系。基本内容包括美元与黄金挂钩、国际货币基金会员国的货币与美元保持固定汇率（实行固定汇率制度）等。布雷顿森林货币体系的运转与美元的信誉和地位密切相关。因美元危机与美国经济危机的频繁爆发，以及制度本身不可解脱的矛盾性，该体系于1973年宣告结束。

资料来源：https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/布雷顿森林体系

5.Wager: the act of gambling, 打赌，赌博

6.Spur：刺激、激励、驱使

7.Veer：turn sharply; change direction abruptly转向、转变观点

8.Glut：supply with an excess of供过于求

Betting that a currency peg would break became a signature hedge-fund trade. An early example was a bet made by Michael Marcus in 1975 that a surge of oil revenue would force Saudi Arabia to revalue its currency. The exchange-rate crisis that brought hedge-fund managers blinking into the limelight was their bet made in September 1992 that Britain would abandon the pound’s peg against the Deutschmark. The Bank of England was obliged to sell its foreign-exchange reserves to buy pounds at a fixed rate for as long as the London market was open. Mr Soros sold as many pounds as he could. By the time the peg broke, he had made £1bn ($1.8bn at the time).

豪赌某一货币盯住汇率制度终将崩瘫成为对冲基金的标志性交易。一个早期的例子便是迈克尔·马库斯（Michael Marcus）在1975年豪赌石油收入的激增将迫使沙特阿拉伯重新估值其货币。1992年9月的英镑汇率阻击战则让冲基金经理们走向聚光灯，崭露头角；索罗斯为代表的基金经理预测英国最终会放弃盯住汇率制以对抗德国马克。因为只要伦敦市场开放，英格兰银行就必须出售其外汇储备以固定汇率购买英镑，所以索罗斯尽可能多地卖出英镑。等到盯住汇率制度崩溃时，他已赚取10亿英镑（相当于当时的18亿美元）。

注：

1.Blink：闪现，眨眼

2.Limelight：聚光灯

延伸阅读：1992年索罗斯英镑汇率阻击战http://www.sohu.com/a/318709023_120159109

Mr Bacon was on that trade, too. Earlier, he profited from the stockmarket crash of 1987 by piling into the safety of bonds, which rallied in the aftermath. He also made a tidy sum by predicting the impact on oil prices and the stockmarket of Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990.

培根也参与了那次英镑阻击战。早在1987年时，他就通过集中投资相对安全的债券市场，从股市崩盘后的债券市场反弹中获利。他还成功预测了1990年伊拉克入侵科威特对石油价格和股票市场的影响，获取了可观的收益。

注：

piling：a column of wood or steel or concrete that is driven into the ground to provide support for a structure打桩、堆积

Crunch situations like these are when the truly gifted macro traders come into their own. They have many of the qualities of great playmakers. They are able to see things that less gifted players cannot. They are unhurried under pressure. They know when to bide their time and when to go for the jugular. And they can imagine a world that might soon be arranged differently and work out the implications. “Don’t try to play the game better; try to figure out when the game has changed,” Mr Soros would tell colleagues. The most profitable trades would often come after periods of calm, when volatility had been suppressed either by complacency or official fiat.

类似这样的关键时刻，真正有天赋的宏观交易员才能发挥自己的才能。他们有着众多“中场球员”所拥有的特质：能看到天赋稍逊交易员所无法预测的东西；在压力下不慌不忙且知进退；能够构想可能很快就会被重新定义的世界，并找出其中的含义。索罗斯曾告诉同事：“不要试图玩得更好，而是去发掘转机。” 最赚钱的交易机会往往发生在市场平静期之后，（因为）在这段时间里，市场波动要么被自满情绪要么就是被官方指令所抑制。

注：

1. bide their time 等待时机

eg. Sellers, meanwhile, are reluctant to lower their prices, preferring to bide their time.

同时，卖方也不愿降低他们的价格，宁愿等待他们的时机。

2. go for the jugular 正中要害，抓住要点

3. 扩展阅读:“全球宏观交易已死？有什么出路吗？”

https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1651155446667136070&wfr=spider&for=pc&isFailFlag=1

Macro traders are not comfortable during those placid periods. They have struggled for much of the past decade, which has seen a steady upward grind in asset prices. Inflation has been absent, so central banks have been free to respond to any signs of trouble in markets with easier monetary policy. But stability breeds instability. Over-coached footballers do not respond well when a game takes an unexpected turn. Investors schooled in calmer markets may similarly struggle with renewed volatility. One day, the playmakers will be back.

宏观交易员在那些平静期中感到不安。过去10年中的绝大时间中，资产价格稳步上涨，而他们在苦苦挣扎。通货膨胀一直没有出现，因此各国央行可以用更宽松的货币政策来应对市场出现的任何问题。但稳定会滋生不稳定，如同比赛中出现意料外的转折时，训练过度的球员不能很好地做出自己的决断。在较平静市场参与的投资者，面对新波动可能也同样会不知所措。总有一天，“场控”交易员终将回归。

翻译组：

Vivian，女，金融硕士，爱潜水爱运动

Vivifang，女，外币债券交易员，经济学人粉丝

Summer，女，QE在职，梦想能仗翻译/音乐 /健康走天涯

校对组：

Martina，女，爱电影爱生活，爱金融经济

Emily，食物链底端金融民工，经济学人粉丝