美元跌跌不休？我一定会回来的--美刀太狼 | 经济学人财经

Finance & economics | Buttonwood

财经 | 梧桐树专栏

英文部分选自经济学人20230114财经版块

Finance & economics | Buttonwood

财经 | 梧桐树专栏

The dollar could bring investors a nasty surprise

美元走弱的一致预期可能会给投资者带来可怕的意外

Virtually everyone thinks the greenback will weaken

美元贬值预期几乎已成共识

Our currency, your problem. That is how John Connally, America’s Treasury secretary, described the dollar to European leaders in 1971. The phrasing was apt. His boss, Richard Nixon, had suspended the convertibility of the dollar into gold and demanded a change to the exchange-rate system established at Bretton Woods in 1944. Other countries were told to strengthen their currencies, or America would subject them to trade restrictions. Compliance followed in short order. By the end of the year, the Smithsonian Agreement had devalued the dollar by around a tenth against key foreign currencies.

“我们的货币，你们的难题”。美国财政部长约翰·康纳利（John Connally）在1971年对欧洲国家领导人们这样描述美元。这个措辞在当时很恰当。时任总统理查德·尼克松（Richard Nixon）暂停了美元与黄金的兑换，并要求改变1944年在布雷顿森林建立的汇率体系。美国还要求各国升值各自的货币，否则将对其施加贸易限制。各国立即遵照执行。至1971年底，《史密森协定》已经使美元对主要外币贬值了约十分之一。

注释：

1.Bretton Woods: TheBretton Woods Conference, formally known as the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference, was the gathering of 730 delegates from all 44 Allied nations at the Mount Washington Hotel, situated in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, United States, to regulate the international monetary and financial order after the conclusion of World War II. 布雷顿森林是1944年布雷顿森林会议的举办地，布雷顿森林体系由此得名。该体系的核心内容是美元与黄金挂钩，成员国货币与美元挂钩，实行可调整的固定汇率制度。1973年2月美元进一步贬值，世界各主要货币由于受投机商冲击被迫实行浮动汇率制，至此布雷顿森林体系完全奔溃。

2. Smithsonian Agreement：《史密森协定》指1971年12月，布雷顿森林体系解体后西方十国集团所达成的新的国际货币制度协定，由于会议在史密森学会召开而得名。1971年8月15日，尼克松宣布实行新经济政策，停止按照布雷顿森林体系规定的35美元兑换一盎司黄金，以及加征10%进口附加费等其他经济政策调整。这引发了布雷顿森林体系的崩溃，被称作尼克松冲击。美国在新政策推行后，参加了与其发达国家盟友的谈判，商谈各发达国家的货币升值事宜，从而适应美元政策的变化。 1971年12月西方十国集团于史密森学会展开谈判，签署了史密森协定。协定中，西方各发达国家同意将自己的货币相对美元升值。1973年美元对黄金再次贬值，协约各国先后放弃该协定，采用浮动汇率制，该协定挽救布雷顿森林体系的尝试彻底失败。

Today’s exchange rates are mostly floating, set by the market rather than at crunch talks. Yet once again a weaker dollar is prompting sighs of relief. Last September the dxy, a gauge of the dollar’s strength against other currencies, was at its highest in 20 years (see chart). The yen had tumbled; the pound at one point looked like it was racing towards parity with the dollar; the euro spent a few brief spells below it. Since then, the greenback has weakened: measured by the dxy, it is now 10% below its recent peak.

今天的汇率大多是浮动的，由市场而非紧急谈判决定。而美元走弱再次让人们松了口气。去年9月，衡量美元对一揽子其他货币汇率变化程度的美元指数（dxy）处于20年来最高水平（见图表）。日元暴跌；英镑一度看似加速贬值，趋向与美元平价；好几次，欧元汇率短暂低于美元。自此，美元走弱：以dxy衡量，现在美元已比最近峰值低10%。

注释：

1.DXY：美元指数，是衡量美元在国际外汇市场汇率变化的一项综合指标，由美元对六个主要国际货币的汇率经过加权几何平均数计算获得。

2.tumble：If prices or levels of somethingare tumbling, they are decreasing rapidly. (价格或水平) 暴跌

3. brief spell：很短的时间

4.greenback：美钞

A mighty dollar causes no end of problems. Poorer countries tend to borrow in the currency. When it strengthens, these debts become heftier. Even in rich countries, where governments mostly issue debt in their own currency, a stronger dollar squeezes corporate borrowers. Analysis in 2020 by Matteo Maggiori, Brent Neiman and Jesse Schreger, three economists, showed that in Australia, Canada and New Zealand more than 90% of corporate bonds held by foreigners were denominated in outside currencies, typically dollars.

强大的美元会造成无穷无尽的问题。贫国往往借入美元，美元升值就会加重债务。即使是在那些政府大多以本国货币发行债务的富裕国家，美元走强也会压榨企业借款人。2020年，马特奥·马乔里（Matteo Maggiori）、布伦特·内曼（Brent Neiman）和杰西·施雷格（Jesse Schreger）等三位经济学家分析指出，在澳大利亚、加拿大和新西兰，外国人持有的公司债券中，超过90%以外国货币（通常是美元）计价。

注释：

1.mighty：Mightyis used to describe something that is very large or powerful. 强大的

2.hefty: Heftymeans large in size, weight, or amount. 庞大的; 沉重的

It is not only debtors that suffer. Commodity prices are quoted in dollars; when the currency strengthens they get dearer. American exporters become less competitive, as their products are more expensive for foreigners. American investors with overseas assets have their returns eaten away. Good reason, then, for the cheering at the greenback’s retreat.

煎熬的不只是债务人。商品价格以美元报价——美元升值，商品更贵。美国出口商的竞争力随之下降，因为产品对外国人来说更贵了。这意味着拥有海外资产的美国投资者的回报被蚕食。因此，他们有充分的理由为美元走弱而欢呼。

Unfortunately, the relief may be temporary. To see why, consider the sources of the dollar’s recent strength. One is monetary policy. Throughout 2022, America’s Federal Reserve raised rates higher and faster than other central banks. This made the dollar a good target for a “carry trade”: selling a low-yielding currency to buy a high-yielding one and pocketing the difference. A second source is fear. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s unsustainable “zero-covid” policy and the teetering of the global economy towards recession all ratcheted up markets’ anxiety levels. In anxious times investors tend to reach for the perceived safety of American assets. A final source is America’s economy. In part because of higher energy prices and the country’s status as an energy exporter, it seems in better shape than much of the rest of the world’s.

不幸的是，这种缓解可能是暂时的。要了解原因，需考虑造成美元近期走强的源头。一是货币政策。2022全年，美联储的加息力度和速度大于其他央行，使美元成为“利差交易”的理想目标：卖出低收益货币以买入高收益货币，然后赚取差价。二是恐惧。俄乌冲突、中国调整“动态清零”疫情政策以及全球经济在摇摇欲坠中走向衰退，都加剧了市场的焦虑。美国资产被认为是安全的，因此往往会成为焦虑时期投资者的选择。三是美国经济。部分原因是能源价格上涨，而美国是能源出口国，经济状况比很多国家都要好。

注释：

1.Carry Trade: 利差交易（Carry Trade），又称为套息交易或融资套利交易，一般指外汇上的利差交易，即借入利率较低的货币，然后买入并持有较高收益的货币，借此赚取利差。

Source: https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%88%A9%E5%B7%AE%E4%BA%A4%E6%98%93

https://wiki.mbalib.com/wiki/%E5%88%A9%E5%B7%AE%E4%BA%A4%E6%98%93

2.Pocket the difference 赚差价 pocket: supply of money

Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/pocket

3.Teeter: to move unsteadily vi. 踉跄；摇摇欲坠

Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/teeter

4.Ratchet up: 逐步增加

True, the pace of the Fed’s tightening is slowing, and its governors expect rates to peak this year. But they expect that peak to be higher than investors do, at above 5%, and that it will be maintained longer before being cut. Were the market to accept the central bank’s view, the carry trade might yet have another leg. So may the fear trade, which is dependent on the progress of an unpredictable war.

确实，美联储正放缓加息，同时美联储理事们预计利率或在今年见顶。但他们预计加息上限将高于投资者的预期，利率峰值超5%，且将维持较长时间后才会降息。若市场接受了美联储的观点，利差交易可能仍会盛行一时。恐惧交易可能也会如此，这要看一场无法预测的战争走向如何。

注释:

Have another leg: (idiomatic) To have endurance; to have prospects to exist or go on for a long time.

Source: 

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/have_legs#:~:text=(idiomatic)%20To%20have%20endurance%3B,on%20for%20a%20long%20time.

延申阅读：

Investors Would Be Better Off Believing the Fed

Source: 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/investors-would-be-better-off-believing-the-fed/2022/12/19/661238a4-7f8c-11ed-8738-ed7217de2775_story.html

Even an American recession may not dent the dollar. The greenback tends to do well both when America’s economy is motoring ahead and when it falls into a downturn, a phenomenon currency traders call the “dollar smile”. If American growth is sputtering, the global economy is likely to be in jeopardy as well, enhancing the appeal of dollar assets as havens.

即便是美国经济衰退也可能不会使美元贬值。无论美国经济是繁荣还是倒退，美元往往都表现良好，这种现象被外汇交易员称为“美元微笑”。如果美国经济增长乏力，全球经济也可能陷入困境，进而增强美元资产作为避难所的吸引力。

注释：

美元微笑曲线也叫美元微笑理论(U.S. Dollar Smile Theory)，是一个很受欢迎的概念，它表明，无论市场环境好坏，美元都会保持积极向上。这一理论是由摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley) 前经济学家和策略师Stephen Jen创立的，於2007年开始流行。

延申阅读：

美元微笑曲线是什么？一文介绍美元微笑曲线及其投资策略

https://www.dailyfxasia.com/feaarticle/20220623-8651.html

Yet the best argument that the dollar will strengthen is investors’ conviction that it won’t. In Bank of America’s recent survey of fund managers, a near-record proportion thought that the greenback would weaken. Among forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg, a data provider, the median projection is for the dollar to fall against every other major currency this year, and to continue to drop after that.

然而，最能说明美元将要走强的是投资者坚信美元不会走强。美国银行近期对基金经理的调查显示，认为美元将走弱的基金经理比例几乎创下纪录。在数据提供商彭博社对预测者的调查中，预测中值是今年美元对其他所有主要货币将下跌，并在此后持续下跌。

With some $6.6trn traded against other currencies every day, it is difficult to imagine that at least some of these bets have not already been placed. The more that have, the greater the potential for a rise. Shortly after the Smithsonian Agreement was struck, speculators threw currency markets back into chaos by forcing the dollar to devalue further, eventually breaking the Bretton Woods system altogether. Nowadays, the greatest pain would come if the dollar were driven in the opposite direction. Investors could be in for a shock.

每天大约有6.6万亿美元兑其他货币的交易，很难想象其中一些赌注尚未下注。下注越多，上涨的可能性越大。史密森协议达成后不久，投机者就迫使美元进一步贬值，使得货币市场再度陷入混乱，最终摧毁了布雷顿森林体系。如今，美元升值将带来最大的痛苦，投资者也必将受到冲击。

注释：
Be in for: 免不了遭到，必定遭到